1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply - The low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China's wet season is ending, and the growth rate of furnace - starting in Xinjiang is also slower than expected. The overall supply pressure is expected to gradually ease [4]. - Demand - The demand from the organic silicon industry has slowed, while the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy remains stable. The demand from the polysilicon sector is expected to increase steadily in the next two months [4]. - Market Outlook - If the supply - side production rate enters a downward channel and the downstream polysilicon demand improves, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point [4]. Polysilicon - Supply - The production plan in September is expected to increase month - on - month, exacerbating the supply - side surplus pressure. The increasing number of daily warehouse receipts also exerts pressure on the futures market [10]. - Demand - The production rhythm of silicon wafers and battery cells continues to slow, and the demand for polysilicon is restricted by factors such as lagging terminal installation demand and inventory digestion pressure [10]. - Market Outlook - If major enterprises in the industry reach effective integration agreements, it will fundamentally improve the supply - demand pattern and form long - term support for the market. Currently, investors are advised to be cautious [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8740 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 75 yuan (0.87%) and a weekly increase of 225 yuan (2.64%) [12]. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 275329 lots (44.20%) daily and 24186 lots (6.51%) weekly [12]. - The open interest of the main contract increased by 9706 lots (3.49%) daily and 10466 lots (3.77%) weekly [12]. Spot Data - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Tianjin remained unchanged, while the price of 553 in Xinjiang increased by 100 yuan/ton (1.14%) [20][21]. - The price of 421 in Yunnan increased by 100 yuan/ton (1.14%), and the price of industrial silicon powder and some downstream products also had price changes [21]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 50093 lots, an increase of 48 lots (1.23%) from the previous period [34]. - The inventory in some delivery warehouses remained stable, while the inventory in Tianjin delivery warehouse increased by 198 tons (0.92%) [34]. Polysilicon Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 53710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 825 yuan (1.56%) and a weekly increase of 1515 yuan (2.90%) [36]. - The trading volume of the main contract decreased by 133683 lots (32.45%) daily but increased by 10216 lots (3.81%) weekly [36]. - The open interest of the main contract decreased by 746 lots (0.54%) daily and 9624 lots (6.59%) weekly [36]. Spot Data - The prices of N - type polysilicon products such as N - type re - feeding materials and N - type dense materials had slight weekly increases [42]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also had different degrees of changes [42]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 2470 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 845 yuan (52.00%) and a weekly decrease of 1405 yuan (131.92%) [48]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 7690 lots, an increase of 320 lots (4.3%) [36].

俞俊臣（投资咨询证号：Z0021065） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 EC风险管理策略建议 集装箱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/11 | 2025-09-11 | 基差（点） | 日涨跌（点） | 周涨跌（点） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 362.66 | 63.60 | -110.24 | | EC2512 | -42.64 | 64.90 | -140.24 | | EC2602 | 69.06 | 26.60 | -185.84 | | EC2604 | 324.46 | 4.00 | -201.34 | | EC2606 | 135.86 | 13.30 | -194.74 | | EC2608 | -28.54 | 5.00 | -194.74 | source： 同花顺iFinD、南华研究 EC价格及价差 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View As of the reporting date, due to the continuous improvement in commodity shipping volume, the demand for mainstream ship types has significantly increased, especially for Capesize and Panamax vessels. This has led to a substantial week - on - week increase in the BCI and BPI freight rate indices, supporting the BDI composite freight rate index to rise by over 8%. The shipping demand for both agricultural and industrial products has increased significantly, benefiting all dry - bulk carriers. [1][4] 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis - Compared with September 3 data, the week - on - week increase in the freight rate indices of mainstream ship types was significant. The BDI composite freight rate index closed at 2112 points, up 8.87% week - on - week; the BCI freight rate index was at 3071 points, up 10.75% week - on - week; the BPI freight rate index was at 1975 points, up 14.89% week - on - week; the BSI freight rate index was at 1478 points, up 0.75% week - on - week; and the BHSI freight rate index was at 798 points, up 1.27% week - on - week. [4] - The BDI composite freight rate index increased by 4.30% month - on - month and 105.25% compared to the beginning of the year; the BCI index decreased by 6.37% month - on - month but increased by 143.54% compared to the beginning of the year; the BPI index increased by 23.90% month - on - month and 97.5% compared to the beginning of the year; the BSI index increased by 10.63% month - on - month and 64.40% compared to the beginning of the year; the BHSI index increased by 15.65% month - on - month and 44% compared to the beginning of the year. [5][7] 2.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index - On September 10, the FDI composite index, FDI rental freight index, and FDI spot freight index all increased. Among them, the rental freight of Panamax vessels in the FDI rental freight index had the largest month - on - month increase. - The FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1366.34 points, up 1.11% month - on - month; the FDI rental index was at 1686.96 points, up 1.3% month - on - month. The Capesize vessel rental index was at 1822.95 points, up 1.77% month - on - month; the Panamax vessel rental index was at 1546.77 points, up 2.03% month - on - month; the Handymax vessel rental index was at 1645.83 points, down 0.03% month - on - month; the FDI freight rate index was at 1152.59 points, up month - on - month. [8] 3.1 Daily Shipping Country Shipping and Vessel Usage Quantity - On September 11, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 58 vessels, Russia 8 vessels, Argentina 18 vessels, Uruguay 0 vessels, and Australia 0 vessels. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 58 vessels, Guinea 37 vessels, Indonesia 47 vessels, Russia 15 vessels, South Africa 19 vessels, Brazil 13 vessels, and the United States 8 vessels. [15][16] 3.2 Daily Shipping Volume and Vessel Usage Analysis - In terms of agricultural product shipping, 22 vessels were used for corn shipping, 21 for wheat, 21 for soybeans, 10 for soybean meal, and 20 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipping, 104 vessels were used for coal, 75 for iron ore, and 23 for other dry goods. - For agricultural product shipping, the most required were Post - Panamax vessels (42), followed by Handymax vessels (22), and then Handysize vessels (27). For industrial product shipping, the most required were Capesize vessels (92), followed by Post - Panamax vessels (72), and then Handymax vessels (60). [17] 4. Main Port Vessel Quantity Tracking - In mid - September, the number of vessels docked at Chinese ports continued to increase. The data showed that the number of dry - bulk vessels docked at Chinese ports was expected to increase by 22 week - on - week, while the number at Australian ports decreased by 2, and the number at Indonesian ports increased by 1. The number of vessels at Brazilian and South African ports remained unchanged. [18] 5. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On September 10, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $39/ton, and the near - term shipping quote was 4033.52 yuan/ton. - On September 10, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $28045/day, and the latest quote for iron ore CIF price was $123.95/kiloton. - On September 10, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14227/day, and the latest quote for steam coal CIF price was 544.6 yuan/ton. - On September 10, the Handysize vessel freight rate index was quoted at 790.4 points. On September 12, the 4 - meter medium ACFR radiata pine was quoted at $114/cubic meter. [22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, but in the short - term, London gold and silver may face correction pressure due to overbought technical indicators. The inflation data is not expected to support a 50BP rate cut, and economic or employment deterioration is the main driving factor. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips, and existing long positions can be reduced on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market oscillated at high levels. Investors are waiting for the US August CPI data to guide the rate cut amplitude in mid - September. Since the end of August, the strength of precious metals has been mainly affected by the enhanced expectation of Fed easing and the significant decline in long - term US Treasury yields. The market focus is on the Fed's rate cut expectation, personnel adjustment and independence issues, and bond market risks. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3680.4 per ounce, down 0.05%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $41.65 per ounce, up 0.75%. SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 833.42 yuan per gram, up 0.21%; SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9796 yuan per kilogram, down 0.72%. The US August PPI data supported the September rate cut expectation and did not rule out the possibility of a 50BP rate cut [2]. 3.2 Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - The expectation of a rate cut within the year has slightly declined, and the expectation of a 50BP rate cut in September has cooled. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in September is 0%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 92%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point rate cut is 8%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings slightly increased by 0.27 tons to 979.95 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's holdings were 15069.6 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 1.9 tons to 1252.2 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 35.3 tons to 1248.3 tons as of the week ending September 5 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the main data to focus on is the US CPI data at 20:30 on Thursday. In terms of events, this week is the blackout period for Fed officials before the September 18 Fed interest rate decision. At 20:15 on Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision [3]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices**: The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various precious metal contracts, including SHFE gold and silver, SGX gold and silver, CME gold and silver, etc. For example, SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 833.42 yuan per gram, down 1.06 yuan or 0.13% [4][5]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: The table presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of various inventories and holdings, such as SHFE gold and silver inventories, CME gold and silver inventories, SPDR gold holdings, and SLV silver holdings. For instance, SHFE gold inventory was 45951 kilograms, up 1536 kilograms or 3.46% [15]. - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary**: The table shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of various financial indicators, including the US dollar index, US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10 - year US Treasury yield, etc. For example, the US dollar index was at 97.8197, up 0.0573 or 0.06% [18].

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [2] - Analyst: Xiao Yufei [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Affected by the significantly lower-than-expected US non-farm payroll data, the gold price rose sharply and the Shanghai copper price dropped significantly on the night of last Friday, indicating a significant decline in investors' risk preference and demand expectations. On Wednesday night, affected by the low PPI data, investors continued to bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, leading to a rise in copper prices. Fundamentally, on the supply side, multiple research institutions predict that China's refined copper production this month will decline by 4%-5% month-on-month, the first decline in September since 2016. The operating rate of smelters relying on scrap copper or anode copper is expected to decline by 8.3 percentage points to 59.9% month-on-month, further amplifying the effect of supply contraction. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of copper rods increased by 1.66 percentage points to 69.78% month-on-month. Affected by Document No. 770, the operating situation of recycled copper rods is still unclear. In the short term, copper prices may first decline and then rise. The impact of the weak US employment data on copper prices may continue, and in the short term, copper prices may still seek support around 79,000 yuan per ton. If the non-farm payroll data does not ferment further, combined with the expected month-on-month increase in the operating rate of copper rods and the decline in LME copper inventories, copper prices may find support at the 20-day moving average and still have the potential to rise above 80,000 yuan per ton [4]. Key Points Summary by Section Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management Suggestions - **Copper Price Volatility**: The latest copper price is 79,790 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 4.2% [3]. - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long spot positions, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2511C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable [3]. - **Raw Material Management**: When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, for short spot positions, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 78,000 yuan/ton [3]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: - The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,790 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai copper continuous one contract rose 140 yuan to 79,790 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.18%. The Shanghai copper continuous three contract was unchanged at 79,740 yuan/ton. The LME copper 3M contract rose 95.5 US dollars to 10,012 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 0.96%. The Shanghai-London ratio was 8.11, a decrease of 0.02 or -0.25% [8]. - **Spot Data**: - The prices of Shanghai Non-ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumao, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non-ferrous decreased by 0.18%, 0.13%, 0.11%, and 0.14% respectively. The Shanghai Non-ferrous and Shanghai Wumao spot premiums decreased by 33.33% and 37.5% respectively [14]. Copper Market Supply and Demand Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: - The US and other countries reach an agreement on tariff policies. - The increase in interest rate cut expectations leads to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non-ferrous metals. - The lower support level rises [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: - Tariff policies fluctuate. - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies. - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy leads to extremely high COMEX inventories [7]. Copper Inventory Data - **Domestic Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 19,126 tons, a daily increase of 0.24%. The international copper warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,418 tons [20]. - **LME Inventories**: The total LME copper inventories decreased by 225 tons to 155,050 tons, a daily decrease of 0.14%. The European inventories remained unchanged, while the Asian inventories decreased by 225 tons [22]. - **COMEX Inventories**: The total COMEX copper inventories increased by 7,244 tons to 308,706 tons, a weekly increase of 2.4% [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has high expectations for increased sugar production in the 25/26 crushing seasons in India and Thailand, and the recent increase in Brazil's crushing volume, especially with a sugar - making ratio above 55%, has suppressed international sugar prices. In China, apart from a large amount of imports in recent months, consumption has declined year - on - year, and the expected increase in production in the new crushing season has raised market concerns [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for sugar is 5200 - 5700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 5.13% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 2.2% [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategies**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about falling sugar prices, they can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2611) at 5600 - 5650 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (SR511C5600) at 40 - 50 with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategies**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2611) at 5450 - 5500 with a 25% hedging ratio, and sell put options (SR511P5400) at 20 - 25 with a 25% hedging ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - High expectations of increased production in India and Thailand's 25/26 crushing seasons, increased crushing volume and high sugar - making ratio in Brazil, large imports in China, decreased consumption, and expected production increase in the new crushing season are suppressing sugar prices [4]. 3.3利多 and利空 Factors - **利多 Factors**: India's 2024/25 crushing season's ending sugar inventory is sufficient for domestic consumption in 2025. China has suspended imports of Thai syrup and premixed powder. Brazil has increased the mandatory blending ratio of ethanol and biodiesel. Trump said Coca - Cola will use sugar as a beverage additive again, and Pepsi may follow [5]. - **利空 Factors**: In the 2024/25 crushing season, Guangxi's sugar production increased despite less cane input. Analysts expect Brazil's 25/26 crushing season's sugar production to increase by 5% to 46 million tons. Thailand's 24/25 crushing season's production is expected to reach 10.39 million tons. India's early monsoon may lead to a strong production recovery in the 25/26 crushing season. China's sugar imports in July increased significantly, and syrup imports also had some changes. Brazil's mid - southern region had a large increase in sugar production in the first half of August. China's sugar sales and inventory data show some trends [5][6][7][8]. 3.4 Price Data - **Base Difference**: On September 10, 2025, the base differences between different regions and futures contracts showed various daily and weekly changes [9]. - **Futures Price and Spread**: Futures contract prices such as SR01 - SR11 and spreads between different contracts had different daily and weekly changes on September 10, 2025 [10]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: Spot prices in regions like Nanning, Liuzhou, Kunming, and Rizhao, as well as regional spreads, had different daily and weekly changes on September 10, 2025 [11]. - **Sugar Import Price**: Import prices from Brazil and Thailand, both within and outside the quota, and the price differences between domestic regions and imported sugar had daily and weekly changes on September 10, 2025 [12][13].

集装箱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/10 傅小燕（投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 | 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 1350~1450 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 1150~1250 | | source： 南华期货 | | | | | | 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数（欧线）期货早盘开盘后多头抢跑明显，但不敌现货预期疲软，多空胶着，盘整收尾。 截 至收盘，各合约都有不同程度增仓，其中EC2512合约增仓幅度最大，除了反弹的两 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - The Shanghai nickel futures market continues to fluctuate, with fundamental support still present. Nickel ore production and shipping in the Philippines are not significantly affected by rainfall, and domestic arrival inventories remain high. The new energy sector remains supportive, with tight supply and expected continued strength. Ferronickel prices are also strong, and stainless steel maintains a volatile trend. The report suggests paying attention to the impact of the US dollar index, interest - rate cut expectations, and increased export difficulties [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the nickel and stainless - steel markets. Positive factors include the potential revision of the HPM formula in Indonesia, shortening of the nickel ore quota license period, increasing September interest - rate cut expectations, and continuous de - stocking of stainless steel. Negative factors involve high pure nickel inventories, rising seasonal nickel ore inventories, Sino - US tariff disturbances, uncertainties in EU stainless - steel import tariffs, and the implementation of anti - dumping duties on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates by South Korea [6] Group 3: Price and Volatility Forecasts Nickel - The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - The predicted price range for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.51% and a historical percentile of 0.8% [2] Group 4: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - To hedge against potential price declines and inventory devaluation, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [2] Procurement Management - To lock in production costs in case of rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the procurement plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan, and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - To hedge against potential price declines and inventory devaluation, sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3] Procurement Management - To lock in production costs in case of rising raw material prices, buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the procurement plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan, and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan [3] Group 5: Market Data Nickel - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 120,850 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change; Shanghai nickel continuous - first contract is 120,700 yuan/ton, down 1.18% month - on - month; Shanghai nickel continuous - second contract is 120,880 yuan/ton, down 1.12% month - on - month; Shanghai nickel continuous - third contract is 121,110 yuan/ton, down 1.12% month - on - month; LME nickel 3M is 15,105 US dollars/ton, down 1.12% month - on - month. Trading volume is 75,006 lots, down 25.20% month - on - month; open interest is 81,612 lots, up 0.96% month - on - month; warehouse receipts are 22,304 tons, down 1.31% month - on - month; the basis of the main contract is - 710 yuan/ton, down 52.0% month - on - month [7] Stainless Steel - The latest price of stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,915 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change; stainless - steel continuous - first contract is 12,860 yuan/ton, up 0.04% month - on - month; stainless - steel continuous - second contract is 12,950 yuan/ton, up 0.19% month - on - month; stainless - steel continuous - third contract is 12,955 yuan/ton, down 0.31% month - on - month. Trading volume is 115,463 lots, up 5.43% month - on - month; open interest is 123,168 lots, down 0.01% month - on - month; warehouse receipts are 98,288 tons, down 0.25% month - on - month; the basis of the main contract is 620 yuan/ton, down 13.29% month - on - month [9] Group 6: Industry Inventory - Domestic social nickel inventory is 39,930 tons, an increase of 460 tons compared to the previous period; LME nickel inventory is 221,094 tons, an increase of 3,024 tons; stainless - steel social inventory is 918.7 tons, a decrease of 10.1 tons; ferronickel inventory is 29,266.5 tons, a decrease of 3,844.5 tons [10][11]

铁矿石风险管理报告 2025/09/10 周甫翰 （投资咨询证号 Z0020173） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁矿石10合约月度价格预测（9月） | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 770-830 | 21.53% | 11.3% | source： 南华研究 铁矿石风险管理策略建议（9月） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例 | | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货，担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2510 | 空 | 45% | 820-830 | | | | | 卖看涨期权收权利金 | I2510-C-830 | | 40% | 逢高卖 | | 采购管理 | 未来要采购，担心涨价 | 空 | 直接做多铁矿期货锁定成本 | I2510 | 多 | 30% | 770-780 | | | | | 卖虚值看跌，若 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 10, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consultation License No.: Z0012647), Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) [1] - Investment Consultation Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Risk Strategies Inventory Management for Planting Entities - Behavior: Harvest new soybeans in autumn with high selling demand but large short - term selling pressure [2] - Strategy: Take advantage of futures price rebound to lock in planting profits by short - selling soybean No. 1 futures [2] - Hedging Tool: A2511 [2] - Buying/Selling Direction: Short [2] - Hedging Ratio: 30% [2] - Suggested Entry Range: 4000 - 4050 [2] Inventory and Procurement Management For Sellers - Behavior: With soybeans in concentrated listing, sellers' bargaining power weakens [2] - Strategy: Sell call options to increase the selling price [2] - Hedging Tool: A2511 - C - 4050 [2] - Buying/Selling Direction: Sell [2] - Hedging Ratio: 30% [2] - Suggested Entry Range: 40 - 50 [2] For Buyers - Behavior: Concerned about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs [2] - Strategy: Wait for spot procurement in the medium - term and focus on forward procurement management [2] - Hedging Tool: A2603, A2605 [2] - Buying/Selling Direction: Long [2] - Suggested Entry Range: Wait for autumn price guidance [2] Group 3: Core Contradictions - The soybean market is waiting for new - season guidance. Mid - and downstream entities are highly cautious. Auctions are ongoing, and trade - end purchases are cautious. With the new season not fully arrived, the actual market pressure has limited increase, and prices are stable but slightly weak [2] - The rebound of soybean No. 1 futures lacks capital and fundamental support. The market volume shrank and closed lower yesterday. With capital outflows, the futures market is waiting for clearer fundamental guidance. Given the increasing likelihood of a bumper harvest, prices are expected to decline [2] - The consumption recovery represented by the double - festival stocking will face the pressure of new - season listings, and prices will be under pressure [2] Group 4: Bullish Factors - The remaining grain at the grass - roots level is almost exhausted, and traders have generally cleared their inventories. Without concentrated selling pressure, the current price decline is limited [2] - The concentrated consumption scenarios in September are gradually recovering, and there is an expectation of a recovery in edible demand [2] Group 5: Bearish Factors - On September 9, China Grain Reserves Corporation organized a one - way competitive auction of 37,112 tons of domestic soybeans, with only 1,000 tons sold, a significant drop in the transaction rate compared to the full - transaction two - way auction on the 8th, highlighting weak demand and high selling difficulty [3] - The expectation of improved quality and increased yield of new - season soybeans remains unchanged. Without extreme weather, the short - term supply surplus will be the main driving factor of the fundamentals, and prices will continue to be under pressure [3] - Attention should be paid to whether there will be two auctions this week. In the context of the upcoming new - season listing, the impact of auctions may be magnified emotionally [3] Group 6: Futures Price Changes | Contract | September 8, 2025 | September 9, 2025 | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean No. 1 11 | 3977 | 3968 | - 9 | - 0.23% | | Soybean No. 1 01 | 3976 | 3969 | - 7 | - 0.18% | | Soybean No. 1 03 | 3976 | 3970 | - 6 | - 0.15% | | Soybean No. 1 05 | 4020 | 4014 | - 6 | - 0.15% | | Soybean No. 1 07 | 4023 | 4016 | - 7 | - 0.17% | | Soybean No. 1 09 | 4067 | 4067 | 0 | 0.00% | [3]