近年来，期货公司海外业务加速发展。这一进程不仅为公司自身贡献了利润，更在推动中国期货市场 "引进来" 与 "走出去"、加快其国际化步伐方面发挥了重要作用。 期货公司海外业务，发展迅猛！背后原因有这些…… 期货公司海外业务为何能保持高速发展势头？未来又有哪些新动向？券商中国记者近日对多位行业资深 人士进行了采访。 据了解，政策层面的利好支持与中国企业的集中出海，共同加速了本轮期货公司海外业务的拓展进程； 与此同时，如何开展全方位能力建设、应对日益激烈的竞争环境，已成为这些期货公司必须面对的新课 题。 多因素推动发展 据中国期货业协会数据，截至2025年6月，中国内地期货公司共设立境外一级子公司22家，二级子公司 39家，三级子公司6家。这些子公司的注册地涵盖了中国香港、新加坡、英国、美国等主要金融中心， 并获得了包括香港期货交易所、新加坡交易所、芝加哥商业交易所、欧洲洲际交易所、伦敦金属交易所 等全球主流交易所的交易和清算会员资质。业务范围也已从传统的期货经纪扩展到证券、外汇、资产管 理等多元领域。 期货公司海外业务加快发展，背后有着多重因素推动。就具体公司而言，南华期货、永安期货、广发期 货、中粮期货等在海外 ...

近年来，期货公司海外业务加速发展。这一进程不仅为公司自身贡献了利润，更在推动中国期货市场 "引进来" 与 "走 出去"、加快其国际化步伐方面发挥了重要作用。 期货公司海外业务为何能保持高速发展势头？未来又有哪些新动向？券商中国记者近日对多位行业资深人士进行了采 访。 据了解，政策层面的利好支持与中国企业的集中出海，共同加速了本轮期货公司海外业务的拓展进程；与此同时，如何 开展全方位能力建设、应对日益激烈的竞争环境，已成为这些期货公司必须面对的新课题。 多因素推动发展 据中国期货业协会数据，截至2025年6月， 中国内地 期货公司共设立境外一级子公司22家，二级子公司39家，三级子公 司6家。这些子公司的注册地涵盖了中国香港、新加坡、英国、美国等主要金融中心，并获得了包括香港期货交易所、新 加坡交易所、芝加哥商业交易所、欧洲洲际交易所、伦敦金属交易所等全球主流交易所的交易和清算会员资质。业务范 围也已从传统的期货经纪扩展到证券、外汇、资产管理等多元领域。 前述广发期货相关负责人表示，通过促进境外业务发展，有利于丰富期货公司业务类型，拓展收入来源，增强期货行业 国际竞争力。一方面，丰富期货公司业务类型，扩展收入来 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The asphalt market shows no better - than - expected performance during the peak season. In the short term, it mainly follows cost fluctuations. The supply side remains stable, while the demand side is affected by rainfall and capital shortages, with the overall fundamentals weakening month - on - month. In the medium - to - long term, demand is expected to improve as construction conditions get better in autumn, but there will still be a lot of rainfall in stages. The reform of consumption tax in Shandong has not been further expanded, so South China remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the next month is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a historical percentile of 8.95% over the past three years [1]. - As of August 29, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3510 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 10 yuan/ton from a week ago), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3700 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 20 yuan/ton from a week ago), the North China spot price was 3650 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, unchanged from a week ago), and the South China spot price was 3500 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 20 yuan/ton from a week ago) [7]. 3.2. Risk Management Strategy - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long spot positions can short sell the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at a hedging ratio of 25% in the range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and make up for production costs [1]. - For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, those with short spot positions can buy the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at a hedging ratio of 50% in the range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [1]. 3.3. Core Contradictions - Supply side: Stable [2]. - Demand side: Affected by rainfall and capital shortages, demand cannot be effectively released, with weak performance during the peak season. However, it is expected to improve in the medium - to - long term as construction conditions get better in autumn [2]. - Cost side: After the meeting between US and Russian leaders and OPEC's production increase, the tight supply expectation of asphalt cost has been alleviated [2]. 3.4. Factors Affecting Prices - Bullish factors: Small pressure on asphalt factory warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low start - up rate with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of over - capacity reduction [6]. - Bearish factors: An increase in the arrival of Ma Rui crude oil, the short - term drag on demand by the rainy season in the South, a slowdown in social inventory destocking and weakening basis, and the potential increase in the start - up rate driven by the consumption tax reform in Shandong [6].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the cotton and cotton yarn industry. Core Viewpoints - New cotton is entering the concentrated boll - opening stage in Xinjiang, with the expected picking time earlier than last year. Attention should be paid to rainfall in September. Continuous rainy days may affect cotton quality and harvest progress. Currently, the weather forecast shows a possible temperature drop in early September in Xinjiang and precipitation in northern Xinjiang in the first ten - day period, which may be unfavorable for boll - opening. [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 200,000 - ton tariff - rate quota for cotton imports under processing trade to supplement market supply before new cotton is on the market, which is in line with market expectations. The quota is issued based on import contracts, and the quota certificate is valid for 2 months after issuance, having a limited impact on the market. Domestic inventory remains tight before new cotton arrives. [5] - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, downstream finished - product inventories are further reduced, but profits have not significantly recovered. Downstream confidence is insufficient, and orders are still lacking. [5] - From August 27, the US will impose an additional 25% tariff on India. In response, India has extended the exemption of cotton import tariffs from September 30 to December 31. From January to June this year, the US imported about 276,400 tons of cotton products from India, accounting for about 19% of its total imports. Under the significant tariff increase, India's exports may face challenges, and future orders may shift. [5] - The low - inventory situation before new cotton is on the market still supports cotton prices. The strategy is to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the peak sales season of downstream products and the time when new cotton comes onto the market. [6] Summary of Different Regions Domestic Market Supply - As of August 21, the national new cotton sales rate was 98.1%, 5.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 7.9 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. [1] Import - In July, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons. The cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. The cotton cloth import volume was 3,981.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.57%. [1] Demand - In July, domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing were 96.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 24.63% and a year - on - year increase of 1.80%. The export value of textiles and clothing in July was 26.766 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.06%. [1] Inventory - As of August 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 2.7444 million tons, a decrease of 343,800 tons from the end of July. Among them, commercial inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 369,600 tons from the end of July, and industrial inventory was 924,200 tons, an increase of 25,800 tons from the end of July. [1] International Market US Market - **Supply**: As of August 24, the boll - setting rate of cotton in the US was 81%, 7 percentage points behind the same period last year and 6 percentage points behind the five - year average. The boll - opening rate was 20%, 4 percentage points behind the same period last year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average. The overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 54%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month and a 14 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. [2] - **Demand**: From August 15 - 21, the net signing volume of US 2025/2026 - season upland cotton was 40,665 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 70%. The shipment volume of upland cotton was 25,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9%. The net signing volume of Pima cotton was 885 tons, and the shipment volume of Pima cotton was 3,175 tons. There were no signings for the 2026/2027 - season upland cotton and Pima cotton this week. [2] Southeast Asian Market - **Supply**: As of August 25, the sown area of new - season cotton in India reached 10.85 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of about 2.6%. [2] - **Demand**: In July, Vietnam's textile and clothing export value was 3.911 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. In June, Bangladesh's clothing export value was 2.788 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 28.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.31%. In July, India's clothing export value was 1.34 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In June, Pakistan's textile and clothing export value was 1.522 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60% and a year - on - year increase of 7.59%. [2] Futures Market - **Futures Price Changes**: The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 01 was 14,240 yuan, with a weekly increase of 210 yuan and a rise rate of 1.5%. The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 05 was 14,200 yuan, with a weekly increase of 210 yuan and a rise rate of 1.5%. The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 09 was 13,790 yuan, with a weekly increase of 30 yuan and a rise rate of 0.22%. [19][23] - **Spot Price Changes**: The price of CC Index 3128B was 15,328 yuan, with an increase of 85 yuan and a rise rate of 0.56%. The price of CC Index 2227B was 13,412 yuan, with an increase of 71 yuan and a rise rate of 0.53%. The price of CC Index 2129B was 15,603 yuan, with an increase of 75 yuan and a rise rate of 0.48%. [23] - **Spread Changes**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan, with no change. The CF5 - 9 spread was 410 yuan, an increase of 180 yuan. The CF9 - 1 spread was - 450 yuan, a decrease of 180 yuan. [23] - **Import Price Changes**: The price of FC Index M was 13,492 yuan, a decrease of 14 yuan and a decline rate of 0.1%. The price of FCY Index C32s was 21,245 yuan, an increase of 13 yuan and a rise rate of 0.06%. [23] - **Cotton Yarn Price Changes**: The closing price of cotton yarn futures was 20,140 yuan, with a weekly increase of 80 yuan and a rise rate of 0.4%. The spot price of cotton yarn was 20,780 yuan, with an increase of 60 yuan and a rise rate of 0.29%. [23]

Group 1: Index Performance - The Nanhua Composite Index declined by -0.05% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1][4] - Among the sector indices, the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index had the largest increase of 0.26%, and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest increase of 0.05%. The Nanhua Black Index had the largest decline of -1.04%, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index had the smallest decline of -0.18% [1][4] - Among the theme indices, the Economic Crops Index had the largest increase of 0.5%, and the Energy Index had the smallest increase of 0.06%. The Building Materials Index had the largest decline of -0.92%, and the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the smallest decline of -0.02% [1][4] - Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Tin Index had the largest increase of 2.16%, and the Industrial Silicon Index had the largest decline of -2.1% [4] Group 2: Sector - Specific Single - Variety Index Performance Energy and Chemical Sector - Synthetic ammonia declined by -0.79%, polyvinyl chloride by -0.66%, styrene by -1.02%, LPG by -0.18%, PTA by -0.17%, and some product increased by 0.52% [2] Black Sector - Some varieties in the black sector had a single - variety index increase of 0.62% [2] Agricultural Products Sector - Palm oil declined by -1.04%, rapeseed meal by -0.20%, rapeseed oil by -0.17%, rapeseed by 0.49%, rapeseed cake by 1.21%, and corn by 0.27% [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Nanhua Composite Index dropped 3.82 points, a decline of -0.15%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and palm oil, with the crude oil index down -1.65% and contributing -0.27%, and the palm oil index down -2.88% and contributing -0.13% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell 16.12 points, a -0.44% decline. The most influential varieties were crude oil and coke, with the crude oil index contributing -0.29% and the coke index contributing -0.12% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Metal Index remained unchanged, with iron ore being the most influential variety, contributing 0.38% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index decreased 18.6 points, a -1.11% decline. Crude oil was the most influential variety, contributing -0.41% [2]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index dropped 10.61 points, a -0.96% decline. Palm oil was the most influential variety, contributing -0.38% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Data Overview | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change in Points | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2521.31 | 2525.13 | -3.82 | -0.15% | 2544.65 | 2517.10 | 27.54 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1273.01 | 1250.91 | 22.10 | 1.77% | 1273.01 | 1250.91 | 22.10 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3614.83 | 3630.95 | -16.12 | -0.44% | 3665.33 | 3611.26 | 54.08 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6394.54 | 6365.05 | 29.48 | 0.46% | 6436.44 | 6365.05 | 71.39 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1664.76 | 1683.37 | -18.60 | -1.11% | 1696.83 | 1664.76 | 32.07 | | Non-ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 1700.10 | 1691.68 | 8.42 | 0.50% | 1708.13 | 1691.68 | 16.46 | | Black Index NHFI | 2533.25 | 2535.84 | -2.59 | -0.10% | 2579.12 | 2533.25 | 45.87 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1096.43 | 1107.04 | -10.61 | -0.96% | 1109.32 | 1095.92 | 13.40 | | Nanhua Comprehensive Consumption NHCIMi | 1181.26 | 1188.65 | -7.39 | -0.62% | 1195.39 | 1178.85 | 16.54 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1056.77 | 1068.99 | -12.22 | -1.14% | 1078.80 | 1053.33 | 25.47 | | Petrochemical Consumption NHPCI | 950.44 | 960.51 | -10.07 | -1.05% | 964.55 | 950.44 | 14.10 | | Coal Chemical Industry Investment AHCCI | 1015.90 | 1031.95 | -16.05 | -1.55% | 1036.83 | 1015.90 | 20.93 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFMI | 1054.58 | 1050.35 | 4.23 | 0.40% | 1075.72 | 1050.35 | 25.38 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 737.62 | 744.61 | -6.99 | -0.94% | 750.58 | 737.62 | 12.96 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index HOOl | 1262.70 | 1281.46 | -18.75 | -1.46% | 1285.62 | 1262.70 | 22.92 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 918.03 | 905.22 | 12.81 | 1.41% | 918.03 | 905.22 | 12.81 | [3] 3.2 Nanhua Variety Index Strength and Weakness Arbitrage Data - The report provides data on the ratio of various Nanhua commodity indices, including the present value, previous value, change, and ranking. For example, the ratio of the precious metals index to the composite index is 0.505, with a change of 0.009517708 and a ranking of 0.833 [6]. 3.3 Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Rise and Fall to the Index Rise and Fall - The report shows the average position volume, month-on-month increase, and position volume ratio of various futures varieties this week. For example, the position volume of soybean meal is 4,280,386 hands, with a month-on-month decrease of -4.72% and a position volume ratio of 11.22% [8]. 3.4 Weekly Data of Nanhua's Various Sector Indices - **Industrial Products Index NHII**: Closed at 3614.83 this week, down -0.44% from last week. The most influential varieties were alumina, soda ash, etc. [10]. - **Metal Index NHMI**: Closed at 6394.54 this week, up 0.46% from last week. The most influential varieties were iron ore, tin, etc. [10]. - **Energy and Chemical Index NHECI**: Closed at 1664.76 this week, down -1.11% from last week. The most influential varieties were crude oil, coke, etc. [10]. - **Agricultural Products Index NHAI**: Closed at 1096.43 this week, down -0.96% from last week. The most influential variety was palm oil [10]. - **Black Index NHFI**: Closed at 2533.25 this week, down -0.10% from last week. The most influential varieties were coke, rebar, etc. [12]. - **Non-ferrous Metals Index NHNFI**: Closed at 1700.10 this week, up 0.50% from last week. The most influential varieties were tin, indium, etc. [14].

Market Overview - The diversified financial sector experienced a decline of 1.36% on August 29, with Hainan Huatie leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3857.93, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12696.15, up 0.99% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the diversified financial sector included: - Nanhua Futures (603093) with a closing price of 23.36, up 2.05% and a trading volume of 156,100 shares [1] - Jiuding Investment (600053) closed at 18.41, up 1.88% with a trading volume of 107,800 shares [1] - Jiangsu Jinzu (600901) closed at 5.72, up 1.06% with a trading volume of 457,500 shares [1] - Conversely, Hainan Huatie (603300) saw a significant decline of 3.81%, closing at 10.61 with a trading volume of 1,863,300 shares [2] - Other notable decliners included: - Zhongyou Capital (000617) down 2.84% to 12.68 with a trading volume of 4,046,400 shares [2] - Guowang Yingda (600517) down 2.65% to 5.88 with a trading volume of 535,100 shares [2] Capital Flow - The diversified financial sector saw a net outflow of 900.2 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 626 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks showed: - LaKala (300773) had a net outflow of 57.67 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Nanhua Futures (603093) experienced a net inflow of 46.89 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Jiuding Investment (600053) had a net inflow of 15.04 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Group 1: Report Summary - The BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1043 points on August 28, 2025, up 1.36% week-on-week and 14.48% year-on-year, with the increase widening [2]. - As of the week of August 22, the shipping volume showed a pattern of "three increases and one decrease." The shipping volume from the US increased by 54.34%, Russia by 0.27%, the UAE by 10%, and Saudi Arabia decreased by 14.1% [2]. - As of August 27, the passage volume of crude oil vessels in the Red Sea and Aden Gulf regions increased significantly [2]. - The significant increase in crude oil shipping volume from the US, Russia, and the UAE last week supported the rise of the BDTI freight rate index. The substantial increase in the passage volume of oil tankers in major seas this week indicates a significant month-on-month increase in crude oil shipping volume from the Middle East, supporting the widening increase of the BDTI freight rate index [2]. - An important event to watch is the Fed's interest rate cut expectation [2]. Group 2: BDTI Crude Oil Freight Rate Index Trend - As of August 28, 2025, the BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1043 points, up 1.36% week-on-week and 14.48% year-on-year [2]. - From a seasonal perspective, the freight rate remained stable and increased this week, showing a gap compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. Group 3: Oil Tanker Shipping Distance - In the 32nd week of 2025 (as of August 15), the shipping distances of VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax tankers all decreased month-on-month, with the VLCC showing the largest decrease. Specifically, the shipping distances of VLCC, Aframax, and Suezmax tankers decreased by 21.47%, 8.04%, and 8.01% respectively month-on-month. Compared with the same period last year, the shipping distances of all three tanker types decreased, with the VLCC showing the largest decrease [4]. Group 4: Oil Tanker Traffic in Red Sea and Aden Gulf - From August 23 - 27, 2025, the total passage volume of oil tankers in the Red Sea increased. The average passage volume of oil tankers in the Red Sea was 798, an increase of 7 compared to the previous week. Among them, the number of crude oil tankers decreased by 4, and the number of refined oil tankers increased by 11. Among the passing crude oil tankers, the number of VLCC decreased by 1, Suezmax by 4, and Aframax by 7 [6]. - The passage volume of oil tankers in the Aden Gulf increased significantly. The passage volume of oil tankers in the Aden Gulf was 117, an increase of 16 compared to the previous week. Among them, the passage volume of crude oil tankers increased by 4, and refined oil tankers by 8. Among the passing crude oil tankers, the number of VLCC increased by 1, Suezmax remained unchanged, and Aframax increased by 12 [6]. Group 5: Oil Tanker Capacity - As of August 22, 2025, 9426 oil tankers were dismantled, an increase of 1 week-on-week and 80 year-on-year; the number of effective vessels was 18331, an increase of 11 week-on-week and 447 year-on-year; the vessel delivery volume was 215, a decrease of 2 week-on-week and an increase of 98 year-on-year; the number of vessel orders was 1332, a decrease of 10 week-on-week and an increase of 108 year-on-year; the number of vessels under construction was 228, an increase of 12 week-on-week and 84 year-on-year [8]. - As of August 23, the port capacity of VLCC and Aframax tankers increased month-on-month, while that of Suezmax tankers decreased. Specifically, the number of docked VLCC tankers was 2381, an increase of 93; the number of docked Aframax tankers was 2846, an increase of 208; the number of docked Suezmax tankers was 2064, a decrease of 57 [8]. Group 6: Crude Oil Shipping Data Tracking - As of August 22, 2025, the crude oil shipping volume from the US, Russia, and the UAE increased month-on-month, while that from Saudi Arabia decreased. Specifically, the weekly US crude oil shipping volume rebounded significantly by 54.34%, Russia's by 0.27%, Saudi Arabia's decreased by 14.1%, and the UAE's rebounded by 10% [10]. - In terms of shipping tanker types for US crude oil, the shipping demand for VLCC increased by 91.79% month-on-month, Aframax by 43.19%, and Suezmax by 15.61% [10]. - For Russian crude oil, the shipping demand for Aframax increased by 17.53% month-on-month, while that for Suezmax decreased by 14.32% [10]. - For Saudi crude oil, the shipping demand for VLCC decreased by 11.87% month-on-month, Aframax decreased significantly by 25.59%, and Suezmax decreased significantly by 50% [10]. - For UAE crude oil, the shipping demand for VLCC increased by 15.65% month-on-month, Aframax increased significantly by 247.58%, and Suezmax decreased by 15.99% [10]. - The total crude oil shipping volume from other countries such as Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria increased significantly this week, mainly due to the month-on-month increase in shipping volume from Nigeria, Kuwait, and Iran [28]. Group 7: Crude Oil Arrival - This week, the arrival volume of crude oil in India and the Netherlands increased month-on-month, with the arrival volume in the Netherlands higher than the same period last year. The arrival volume of crude oil in China was lower than the same period last year [29].

南华金属日报:偏强运行 关注周五晚美PCE 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月29日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场偏强上涨，美指和10Y美债收益率下跌，美股微涨，欧股涨跌不一，原油和比特币小幅反 弹。目前市场焦点在美联储降息预期以及美联储人事调整和独立性问题上。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报 3476.9美元/盎司，+0.82%；美白银2512合约收报于39.71美元/盎司，+1.25%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约 收783.22元/克，+0.21%；SHFE白银2510合约收9377元/千克，+0.56%。数据方面，美国二季度实际GDP 年化季环比上调至3.3%，主要因软件和运输设备投资的增强。美国上周首申失业金人数小幅下降至22.9万， 续请人数降至195.4万，均低于预期，反映经济与就业市场韧性，数据后美联储9月降息预期略有下降。美联 储理事沃勒讲话支持美联储9月会议降息25个基点，并预计未来3—6个月将进一步降息，他表示除非8月份就 业报告显示经济大幅疲软且通胀保持良好控制，否则不认为9月份需要更大幅度的降息。 【降息预期 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The BDI shipping market started to pick up this week. The increase in BCI freight index from a decline to a rise, along with the continuous rise of BPI, BSI, and BHSI freight indices, contributed to this trend. The BPI freight index had a weekly increase of over 12% [1]. - The surge in agricultural product shipments, especially from Brazil, led to a significant increase in the demand for Panamax and (large) Handysize vessels. In contrast, the shipments of industrial products such as coal and iron ore showed a slight decline [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Summary - The BDI shipping market showed signs of recovery this week. The BCI freight index reversed from a decline to an increase, while the BPI, BSI, and BHSI freight indices continued to rise. The BPI freight index had a weekly increase of over 12% [1]. - Agricultural product shipments, particularly corn, wheat, and soybeans, increased significantly, driving up the demand for Panamax and (large) Handysize vessels. Industrial product shipments, such as coal and iron ore, decreased slightly [1]. 2. Spot Index Review 2.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - On August 27, all components of the BDI composite freight index and its sub - ship type freight indices increased week - on - week. The BPI freight index had the largest increase, exceeding 12%. Specifically, the BDI composite index closed at 2046 points, up 6.18% week - on - week; the BCI index was at 2989 points, up 4.27%; the BPI index reached 1874 points, up 12.55%; the BSI index was 1447 points, up 4.25%; and the BHSI index was 745 points, up 4.34% [4]. 2.2 FDI Far East Dry Bulk Freight Index - On August 27, most of the FDI composite index and sub - ship type charter rates increased. However, the freight rate of the Australia - Qingdao route in the FDI Capesize vessel charter rate index decreased on a daily basis. The FDI composite freight index closed at 1375.16 points, up 0.43% month - on - month; the FDI charter rate index was at 1706.73 points, up 0.79% [8]. 3. Dry Bulk Shipment Tracking 3.1 Ship Usage Quantity of Shipping Countries on the Day - On August 28, among the major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 59 ships, Russia used 11 ships, Argentina used 16 ships, and Australia used 5 ships. Among the major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 52 ships, Guinea used 28 ships, Indonesia used 42 ships, Russia used 24 ships, South Africa used 16 ships, Brazil used 9 ships, and the United States used 10 ships [16][17]. 3.2 Shipment Volume and Ship Usage Analysis on the Day - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 29 ships were used for corn, 23 for wheat, 22 for soybeans, 13 for soybean meal, and 11 for sugar. For industrial product shipments, 106 ships were used for coal, 67 for iron ore, and 17 for other dry goods. By ship type, the largest number of Ultra - Panamax ships (49) were required for agricultural product shipments, followed by 19 Ultra - Handysize ships and 20 Handysize ships. For industrial product shipments, the largest number of Capesize ships (77) were needed, followed by 64 Ultra - Panamax ships and 62 Ultra - Handysize ships [18]. 4. Tracking of the Number of Ships at Major Ports - This week, the number of ships at Chinese and Indonesian ports continued to increase, while the number of ships at Australian ports continued to decrease significantly on a weekly basis. Adjusted data showed that from August 1 to August 27, "one port decreased and four ports increased." Except for a decrease of 9 ships at Chinese ports, the number of ships at other ports was expected to increase. The number of ships at six Australian ports increased by 3, at six Indonesian ports by 2, at five Brazilian ports by 8, and at one South African port by 1 [18][19]. 5. Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On August 27, the price of Brazilian soybeans was $38 per ton. On August 28, the near - term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 3975.84 yuan per ton. - On August 26, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $28,068 per day. On August 27, the latest quote for the iron ore arrival price was $119.95 per thousand tons. - On August 26, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14,402 per day. On August 27, the latest quote for the thermal coal arrival price was 551.71 yuan per ton. - On August 27, the Handysize vessel freight index was quoted at 727.6 points. On August 29, the quote for 4 - meter medium ACFR radiata pine was $116 per cubic meter [23].