国债期货日报 2025年8月28日 反弹中断 观点：反复探底 南华研究院 徐晨曦（Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 周四期债早盘走弱，午后跌幅加剧，品种全线收跌。现券收益率全线上行，长端上行幅度较大。公开市场净 投放1631亿。资金面宽松，DR001保持在1.31%附近。 日内消息： 1.上海发布《关于加快推进本市城中村改造工作的实施意见》。 行情研判： 今日A股午后一度下探，但此后大幅上扬，将昨日跌幅收复大半，尽显强势，导致债市再度大幅走弱。前期有 部分资金选择做多国债期货对冲股市波动风险，这些资金的出逃可能亦是导致期债下跌的原因之一。目前债 市尚不能完全摆脱股债跷跷板的影响，可能需要反复探底。但近两日大盘波动超百点亦表明股市高位后风险 加剧，债市不必过度悲观。操作思路上，反弹有利即可出场，可小仓保留部分低位多单，空仓者可关注前期 低点。 国债期货日度数据 source： wind,南华研究 元 TS基差：主连 TS IRR：主连(右轴) ％ 02/28 04/30 06/30 -0.5 -0.25 0.25 -1 0 1 2 3 长债与超长债利率走势 sou ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The strengthening of tin prices on Wednesday may be related to the relatively tight supply. Trump's move to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could bring him closer to "controlling the Fed" if successful. The continuous decline of tin ingot social inventory for two weeks may provide upward momentum for tin prices. The demand side shows that tin solder enterprises have a good start - up situation and are willing to take delivery when the price is not higher than 270,000 yuan per ton. In the short - term, the tin supply has not increased, and any smelter maintenance or extended maintenance time is beneficial to tin prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 271,790 yuan, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concern about price increase, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **L利多因素**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's复产 being less than expected [4][5] - **利空因素**: Tariff policy fluctuations, the inflow of Myanmar tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion speed slowing down and gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5] 3.3 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Tin Futures Data (Daily)**: The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 271,790 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract is 271,790 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract is 272,070 yuan/ton with no daily change; the LME Tin 3M is 34,510 US dollars/ton, up 380 US dollars with a daily increase of 1.11%; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.86, down 0.11 with a daily decline of 1.38% [6] - **Tin Spot Data (Weekly)**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot price is 272,000 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.68%; 1 tin premium is 200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan with a weekly decline of 50%; 40% tin concentrate is 260,000 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.76%; 60% tin concentrate is 264,000 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.73%; the price of 60A solder bar is 176,250 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.44%; the price of 63A solder bar is 184,250 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.66%; the price of lead - free solder is 278,250 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.83% [12] 3.4 Tin Import and Inventory Data - **Tin Import and Processing Data (Daily)**: The tin import profit and loss is - 15,229.07 yuan/ton, up 1,537.58 yuan with a daily decline of 9.17%; the 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no daily change; the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,050 yuan/ton with no daily change [14] - **Tin Inventory Data (Daily)**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin is 7,163 tons, up 11 tons with a daily increase of 0.15%; the warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 5,055 tons, down 33 tons with a daily decline of 0.65%; the warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1,251 tons, up 44 tons with a daily increase of 3.65%; the total LME tin inventory is 1,780 tons, down 5 tons with a daily decline of 0.28% [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the metal industry is "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" [1] Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish. In the short term, London gold and silver are expected to remain strong this week. The report suggests a strategy of buying on dips and recommends paying attention to the impact of the US PCE data on Friday [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market oscillated slightly higher. The US dollar index oscillated, US bond yields declined slightly, US stocks rose slightly, European stocks showed mixed performance, crude oil and Bitcoin rebounded slightly, and the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metal Index oscillated. The market focus is on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, personnel adjustments, and independence issues. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3451.8 per ounce, up 0.55%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $39.195 per ounce, up 0.2%. SHFE gold 2510 contract closed at 781.16 yuan per gram, up 0.12%; SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9305 yuan per kilogram, down 0.52%. The rise of the US dollar index during Wednesday's session put pressure on precious metals due to the weakening euro and French fiscal issues [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has slightly increased. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 11.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 88.7%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates is 5.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 49%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 45.5%. In December, the probability of unchanged rates is 0.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 10.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 48.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 40%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 2.58 tons to 965.5 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15274.7 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 38.2 tons to 1165.5 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 5 tons to 1281.8 tons as of the week ending August 22 [3] This Week's Focus - This week, focus on the revised value of the US Q2 GDP on Thursday night and the US July PCE data on Friday night. Regarding events, the European Central Bank will release the minutes of its July monetary policy meeting at 19:30 on Thursday, and Fed Governor Waller will speak on monetary policy at 06:00 on Friday [4] Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metals Price Table**: SHFE gold main contract was at 781.16 yuan per gram, up 0.01%; SGX gold TD was at 777.62 yuan per gram, up 0.1%; CME gold main contract was at $3451.8 per ounce, up 0.25%; SHFE silver main contract was at 9305 yuan per kilogram, down 0.52%; SGX silver TD was at 9261 yuan per kilogram, down 0.54%; CME silver main contract was at $38.69 per ounce, down 0.01%; SHFE - TD gold was at 3.54 yuan per gram, down 17.48%; SHFE - TD silver was at 44 yuan per kilogram, up 43.33%; CME gold - silver ratio was 89.2169, up 0.26% [5][6] - **Inventory and Position Table**: SHFE gold inventory was 37503 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1199.9335 tons, unchanged; SHFE gold position was 166596 lots, down 4.58%; SPDR gold position was 962.5 tons, up 0.27%; SHFE silver inventory was 1165.498 tons, up 3.39%; CME silver inventory was 15909.5998 tons, up 0.54%; SGX silver inventory was 1281.855 tons, down 0.39%; SHFE silver position was 280655 lots, down 7.63%; SLV silver position was 15274.694702 tons, unchanged [13] - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview**: The US dollar index was at 98.2033, down 0.01%; the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.1547, up 0.01%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 45565.23 points, up 0.32%; WTI crude oil spot was at $64.15 per barrel, up 1.42%; LmeS copper 03 was at $9773.5 per ton, down 0.74%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.24%, down 0.47%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was 1.81%, down 1.63%; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was 0.65%, unchanged [16]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 28, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Copper price decline recently was expected. The U.S. dollar index rebounded from 97 to 98.4 after a sharp drop last Friday, showing strong support at the bottom. There is an obvious negative correlation between copper price and the U.S. dollar index in recent trading days. The change in the U.S. dollar index is due to Trump's announcement to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, but Cook responded that Trump has no right to fire her. In the short - term, there is still some pressure above the copper price from the bottom support of the U.S. dollar index and the negative feedback of demand at high prices. As time passes, the downstream producers' acceptance of copper price is increasing, providing support for the copper price. The target price below is tentatively set at 78,000 yuan per ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Price and Volatility - Latest copper price: 79,190 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] 3.2 Copper Risk Management Suggestions 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline (long spot exposure): - Strategy 1: Short the main Shanghai copper futures contract. Sell the main Shanghai copper futures contract with a hedging ratio of 75% at around 82,000 yuan. - Strategy 2: Sell call options. Sell CU2511C82000 with a hedging ratio of 25% when the volatility is relatively stable [2] 3.2.2 Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase (short spot exposure): Long the main Shanghai copper futures contract. Buy the main Shanghai copper futures contract with a hedging ratio of 75% at around 77,000 yuan [2] 3.3 Factors Affecting Copper Price 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - The U.S. reaches an agreement on tariff policy with other countries. - Increased expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals. - The lower support level is rising [4] 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - Tariff policy is changeable. - Global demand decreases due to tariff policies. - The adjustment of U.S. copper tariff policy causes an extremely high COMEX inventory [5] 3.4 Copper Futures and Spot Data 3.4.1 Copper Futures Data (Daily) | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 79,190 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 79,190 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 79,140 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | dollars/ton | 9,773.5 | - 73 | - 0.74% | [4] 3.4.2 Copper Spot Data (Daily) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 79,545 | - 40 | - 0.05% | | Shanghai Wumaotong | yuan/ton | 79,560 | - 30 | - 0.04% | | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 79,480 | - 100 | - 0.13% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 79,670 | - 110 | - 0.14% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 170 | 40 | 30.77% | | Shanghai Wumaotong Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 140 | 60 | 75% | | Guangdong Nanchu Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 115 | 15 | 15% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | yuan/ton | 165 | 0 | 0% | [7] 3.5 Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 1,464.89 | - 86.39 | - 5.57% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | 1,495.5 | 0.2 | 0.01% | | Price Advantage (Tax - included) | yuan/ton | - 30.61 | - 86.59 | - 154.68% | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,150 | - 80 | - 1.28% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | yuan/ton | 6,220.77 | 1.39 | 0.02% | [11] 3.6 Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories 3.6.1 SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts (Daily) | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,287 | - 1,630 | - 7.11% | | Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 5,797 | 0 | 0% | | SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts in Shanghai | tons | 2,405 | 0 | 0% | | Total Bonded SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total Tax - paid SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 21,287 | - 1,630 | - 7.11% | [13] 3.6.2 LME Copper Inventory (Daily) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME Copper Inventory | tons | 156,100 | 1,100 | 0.71% | | LME Copper Inventory in Europe | tons | 24,400 | - 150 | - 0.61% | | LME Copper Inventory in Asia | tons | 16,725 | - 113,875 | - 87.19% | | LME Copper Inventory in North America | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 142,850 | - 400 | - 0.28% | | Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 13,250 | 1,500 | 12.77% | [15] 3.6.3 COMEX Copper Inventory (Daily) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 273,767 | 3,231 | 1.19% | | Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 141,117 | 4,418 | 0.47% | | Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 132,650 | 1,006 | 0.76% | [16] 3.7 Copper Import Profit and Processing | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit/Loss | yuan/ton | 157.56 | 206.61 | - 421.22% | | Copper Concentrate TC | dollars/ton | - 41.06 | 0.24 | - 0.58% | [17]

Report Date and Title - The report is titled "Stock Index Daily Report" and "Stock Index Futures Daily Report" dated August 27, 2025 [1][2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The stock index opened and fluctuated strongly, then dived in the afternoon with heavy - volume decline. Due to previous large gains in some stocks, there is an increased willingness of profit - taking funds, and the index needs adjustment. In the short - term, the adjustment is likely to continue, but the market sentiment is not significantly pessimistic as the volume - weighted average basis of each futures index variety rebounded. With expected domestic favorable policies and loose liquidity, the adjustment amplitude and duration are to be observed. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider appropriate profit - taking and position reduction if the decline continues with heavy volume [6] Market Review - The stock index closed down collectively, for example, the CSI 300 index closed down 1.49%. The trading volume of the two markets rebounded significantly by 48.6545 billion yuan, and the futures index declined with heavy volume [4] Futures Market Observation - The intraday decline rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts were - 1.71%, - 1.84%, - 1.51%, and - 2.08% respectively. The trading volumes were 1.7686 million lots, 0.77499 million lots, 1.76441 million lots, and 3.33544 million lots respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 0.43644 million lots, 0.16891 million lots, 0.57059 million lots, and 0.92377 million lots respectively. The open interests were 2.86101 million lots, 1.12063 million lots, 2.53897 million lots, and 3.97971 million lots respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 0.13045 million lots, 0.03677 million lots, 0.24398 million lots, and 0.17455 million lots respectively [7] Spot Market Observation - The Shanghai Composite Index declined by 1.76%, and the Shenzhen Component Index declined by 1.43%. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 1.20. The trading volume of the two markets was 3165.565 billion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 48.6545 billion yuan [8] Important Information - Trump claimed to "fire" the current Federal Reserve governor, taking another step in his "control the Fed" plan. - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policy measures to expand service consumption in September. - Trump said the US is being "exploited" and will no longer directly fund Ukraine [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rise in copper prices on Monday was unexpected. Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting on Friday was considered dovish by the market, leading to a significant decline in the US dollar index and boosting the valuation of the non - ferrous metals sector. The strong performance of the domestic stock market on Monday also had a certain positive impact on the entire commodity sector. However, the downstream still needs time to accept high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 79,690 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory and concerns about price drops, with a long spot position, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the call option CU2511C82000 when the volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, with a short spot position, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan/ton [2]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **L利多 Factors**: The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies; increased expectations of interest rate cuts led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals; the lower support level has risen [4]. - **利空 Factors**: Tariff policies are inconsistent; global demand has decreased due to tariff policies; the adjustment of the US copper tariff policy has led to an extremely high COMEX inventory [5][6]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 79,690 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract rose 1,040 yuan/ton, a 1.32% increase; the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract had no change; the LME Copper 3M contract rose 74.5 dollars/ton, a 0.77% increase; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.18, a 0.24% decrease [6]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 Copper, Shanghai Wumaoy, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - Ferrous were 79,395 yuan/ton, 79,360 yuan/ton, 79,300 yuan/ton, and 79,490 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.72%, 0.68%, 0.7%, and 0.68%. The spot premiums of these four decreased to varying degrees [11]. Copper Scrap Spread - The current含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,551.28 yuan/ton, a 43.1% increase; the reasonable含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,495.3 yuan/ton, a 0.46% increase; the price advantage decreased by 113.84%. The current不含税 refined - scrap spread is 6,230 yuan/ton, an 8.35% increase; the reasonable不含税 refined - scrap spread is 6,219.38 yuan/ton, a 0.76% increase; the price advantage decreased by 102.52% [15]. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons to 23,747 tons, a 1.66% decrease; the total international copper warehouse receipts decreased by 227 tons to 5,898 tons, a 3.71% decrease [19]. - **Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory decreased by 375 tons to 155,975 tons, a 0.24% decrease; the total COMEX copper inventory increased by 3,430 tons to 272,500 tons, a 1.27% increase [21][22]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is - 49.05 yuan/ton, a 131.95% decrease; the copper concentrate TC is - 41.3 dollars/ton with no change [23].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the tin industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The rise in tin prices on Monday was a passive increase, not closely related to its fundamentals. The speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman at the global central bank meeting lifted the valuation of the non - ferrous metal sector, and the over - rise may be corrected within the next trading day. The continuous two - week decline in tin ingot social inventory may provide upward momentum for tin prices. Tin solder enterprises have a good start - up situation and are willing to take delivery when the price is below 270,000 yuan per ton [3]. - There are both利多 and利空 factors in the tin market.利多 factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's复产 being less than expected.利空 factors include the recurrence of tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [4][5]. Key Points by Category Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 269,570 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. - In the tin futures market, the prices of沪锡主力,沪锡连一, and沪锡连三 are 269,570 yuan/ton, 269,890 yuan/ton, and 270,160 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of伦锡3M is 33,845 dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 370 dollars and a daily increase rate of 1.11%. The沪伦比 is 7.86, with a daily decrease of 0.11 and a daily decrease rate of 1.38% [2][6]. Risk Management Suggestions - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of沪锡主力期货 contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2511C275000 call options when the volatility is appropriate. - For raw material management, when the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of沪锡主力期货 contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of SN2511P260000 put options when the volatility is appropriate [2]. Spot Market - In the weekly spot market, the prices of various tin - related products have increased. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot is 269,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,900 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.09%. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 257,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2,900 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.14% [12]. Import and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 16,766.65 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 144.42 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.87%. The 40% and 60% tin ore processing fees are 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [16]. Inventory - In the daily inventory data, the total warehouse receipt quantity of tin is 7,032 tons, with a daily decrease of 21 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.3%. The LME tin inventory is 1,785 tons, with a daily increase of 45 tons and a daily increase rate of 2.59% [18].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 25, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Group 2: Copper Price and Volatility - Latest Price: 78,690 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [2] - Current Volatility: 11.64%, with a historical percentile of 22.6% [2] Group 3: Copper Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline (long spot exposure): - Strategy 1: Short the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with a hedging ratio of 75% and a suggested entry range around 82,000 yuan/ton [2] - Strategy 2: Sell call options (CU2511C82000), with a hedging ratio of 25% when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase (short spot exposure): - Strategy: Long the main contract of Shanghai copper futures, with a hedging ratio of 75% and a suggested entry range around 77,000 yuan/ton [2] Group 4: Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are still in the process of consolidating the bottom. Macroscopically, the Fed meeting minutes had little impact on copper prices, but Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting pushed down the US dollar index and boosted the valuation of non - ferrous metals, leading to a significant rise in copper prices on Friday night. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the tender TC of many mining enterprises was lower than expected this week, and the export of copper ore from Indonesia met expectations. On the demand side, the weekly operating rate of copper rod enterprises increased by 1.2% month - on - month, and the finished - product inventory decreased slightly to 66,100 tons. Terminal demand remained stable, and the willingness to actively replenish inventory was not strong when the price did not clearly fall to 78,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate around 79,000 yuan/ton, with some pressure above. According to the current downstream and terminal situation, prices above 79,000 yuan/ton are prone to negative feedback, and slight macro - positive factors are difficult to keep the price above this level. Copper prices are also difficult to fall significantly to around 78,000 yuan/ton, as approaching this price will stimulate downstream inventory replenishment. Investors need to pay attention to the US core PCE price in July and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August [3] Group 5: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies [4] - Increased expectations of interest rate cuts led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals [4] - The lower support level has been raised [4] Bearish Factors - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy led to an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5] Uncertain Factors - Repeated tariff policies [7] - Global demand decreased due to tariff policies [7] Group 6: Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | yuan/ton | 78,690 | 0 | 0% | [6] | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 78,650 | 140 | 0.18% | [8] | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 78,610 | 0 | 0% | [8] | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,809 | 74.5 | 0.77% | [8] | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.2 | 0.01 | 0.12% | [8] Group 7: Copper Spot Market Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | yuan/ton | 78,830 | 30 | 0.04% | [13] | Shanghai Wumaotong | yuan/ton | 78,825 | 80 | 0.1% | [13] | Guangdong Nanchu | yuan/ton | 78,750 | 70 | 0.09% | [13] | Yangtze Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 78,950 | 80 | 0.1% | [13] | Shanghai Non - ferrous Spot Premium | yuan/ton | 150 | - 10 | - 6.25% | [13] | Shanghai Wumaotong Spot Premium | yuan/ton | 135 | 20 | 17.39% | [13] | Guangdong Nanchu Spot Premium | yuan/ton | 165 | 35 | 26.92% | [13] | Yangtze Non - ferrous Spot Premium | yuan/ton | 160 | 5 | 3.23% | [13] Group 8: Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Tax - included Scrap - to - Refined Spread | yuan/ton | 1,084.04 | 50 | 4.84% | [15] | Reasonable Tax - included Scrap - to - Refined Spread | yuan/ton | 1,488.5 | 0.5 | 0.03% | [15] | Tax - included Price Advantage | yuan/ton | - 404.46 | 49.5 | - 10.9% | [17] | Current Tax - free Scrap - to - Refined Spread | yuan/ton | 5,750 | 50 | 0.88% | [17] | Reasonable Tax - free Scrap - to - Refined Spread | yuan/ton | 6,172.19 | 3.47 | 0.06% | [17] | Tax - free Price Advantage | yuan/ton | - 422.19 | 46.53 | - 9.93% | [17] Group 9: Copper Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Shanghai Futures Exchange Warehouse Receipt | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 24,148 | - 1,009 | - 4.01% | [19] | Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 6,125 | 0 | 0% | [19] | Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts in Shanghai | tons | 2,405 | 0 | 0% | [19] | Total Bonded Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | [19] | Total Tax - paid Shanghai Copper Warehouse Receipts | tons | 24,148 | - 1,009 | - 4.01% | [19] LME Copper Inventory | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME Copper Inventory | tons | 155,975 | - 375 | - 0.24% | [21] | LME Copper Inventory in Europe | tons | 24,550 | - 150 | - 0.61% | [21] | LME Copper Inventory in Asia | tons | 131,425 | - 225 | - 0.17% | [21] | LME Copper Inventory in North America | tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | [21] | Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 143,450 | - 1,550 | - 1.07% | [21] | Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 12,525 | 1,175 | 10.35% | [21] COMEX Copper Inventory | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX Copper Inventory | tons | 271,482 | 2,416 | 0.9% | [22] | Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | tons | 138,871 | 13,745 | 1.19% | [22] | Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | tons | 132,611 | - 1,842 | - 1.37% | [22] Group 10: Copper Import Profit and Processing | Indicator | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper Import Profit and Loss | yuan/ton | 153.53 | - 81.28 | - 34.62% | [23] | Copper Concentrate TC | US dollars/ton | - 41.3 | - 3.1 | 8.12% | [23]

Report Title - Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily Report - EG's explicit inventory continues to decline, and the price fluctuates strongly [1] Core View - Ethylene glycol's supply and demand have both increased recently, but it is mainly within expectations, and there is no obvious driving force in terms of fundamentals. The short - term sentiment of the chemical industry is expected to remain strong. Although the ethylene glycol market is in a cumulative inventory trend, the inventory increase expectation has been well - traded, and it is difficult to compress the valuation. With the combination of low inventory, neutral valuation, and inelastic supply, ethylene glycol is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend. Operationally, it is advisable to go long on pullbacks within the range. In the medium - to - long - term, the performance of the downstream polyester peak season needs to be observed, and long positions can be hedged by selling near - month out - of - the - money call options [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Other Key Points Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ethylene Glycol | 4300 - 4700 | 9.09% | 1.4% | | PX | 6500 - 7400 | 11.78% | 17.7% | | PTA | 4400 - 5300 | 9.30% | 4.6% | | Bottle Chip | 5800 - 6500 | 7.92% | 0.9% | [2] Polyester Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management | High finished - product inventory, worried about ethylene glycol price decline | Long | Short ethylene glycol futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs; buy put options to prevent sharp price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs | EG2601, EG2510P4400, EG2510C4600 | Sell, Buy, Sell | 25%, 50% | 4550 - 4700, 10 - 20, 30 - 70 | | Procurement Management | Low regular procurement inventory, want to purchase according to orders | Short | Buy ethylene glycol futures to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops | EG2601, EG2510P4400 | Buy, Sell | 50%, 75% | 4350 - 4450, 30 - 50 | [2] 利多解读 1. South Korea's finance minister announced that South Korean petrochemical companies will agree to cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity per year, which may impact ethylene glycol's raw material supply and ethylene - based production costs [4] 2. The planned arrival this week is 9.851 million tons, relatively low, and the port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons next Monday, which will further tighten spot liquidity [6] 3. The loom load has continued to increase slightly recently. As the terminal autumn and winter orders start in September and foreign trade orders have recovered, the demand and downstream sentiment have improved marginally, and the loads of filament and staple fiber are expected to continue to increase [6] 利空解读 - The supply side of oil and coal has both increased, and the total load has risen to 73.16% (+6.77%). Among them, the ethylene - based production load has increased, and the coal - based production load has risen to 81.25% (+0.78%). Next week, some plants have maintenance and restart plans, and the total load is expected to continue to increase [7] Price and Spread Data - The report provides price data for various products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including daily and weekly changes, as well as spread data between different contracts and processing fee data [10][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Tin prices rose slightly and then fell recently. Domestic smelter production cuts briefly pushed up tin prices this week, but the impact was limited, and prices returned to the trading range. In the short term, tin prices may remain range - bound. The Fed Chairman's speech at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting lifted the valuation of the non - ferrous metals sector, and the over - rise may be corrected within the next 1 trading day. Fundamentally, the continuous two - week decline in tin ingot social inventory may provide upward momentum for tin prices. The production start - up of tin solder enterprises on the demand side is okay, and they still have the willingness to take delivery when the price is not higher than 270,000 yuan per ton [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations. Negative factors include the recurrence of tariff policies, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 265,930 yuan, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. 3.2 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three are 265,930 yuan/ton, 266,130 yuan/ton, and 266,510 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of LME Tin 3M is 33,845 dollars/ton, up 370 dollars with a daily increase of 1.11%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.97, up 0.05 with a daily increase of 0.63% [5]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, 60A solder bar, 63A solder bar, and lead - free solder are 266,000 yuan/ton, 400 yuan/ton, 254,000 yuan/ton, 258,000 yuan/ton, 172,750 yuan/ton, 180,250 yuan/ton, and 272,250 yuan/ton respectively. The 1 tin premium increased by 100 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 33.33%, while other spot prices had no weekly change [11]. 3.3 Tin Import and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 16,622.23 yuan/ton, up 1,109.34 yuan with a daily decrease of 6.26%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore are 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [15]. 3.4 Tin Inventory - The latest total tin warehouse receipt quantity on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,053 tons, down 205 tons with a daily decrease of 2.82%. The warehouse receipt quantities in Guangdong and Shanghai are 4,925 tons and 1,267 tons respectively, down 121 tons (- 2.4%) and 84 tons (- 6.22%) respectively. The total LME tin inventory is 1,740 tons, up 25 tons with a daily increase of 1.46% [17].