Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Proya (603605) [1] Core Views - Proya achieved revenue of 6.966 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33%, with net profit attributable to the parent company reaching 999 million yuan, up 34% year-on-year [1] - Q3 revenue was 1.965 billion yuan, up 21% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 298 million yuan, also up 21% year-on-year [1] - Gross margin improved to 70.71% in Q3, up 1.11 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.95 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Sales expense ratio was 45.4% in Q3, down 1.33 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but up 2.78 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The gross-to-sales margin difference was 25.31% in Q3, up 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but down 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [1] Brand Performance - Proya's main brand grew by 34% on Taotian and Douyin platforms in Q3 [1] - The brand ranked first in both the Tmall Fast-Moving Consumer Goods and Beauty categories during the Double 11 pre-sale period [1] - The Red Ruby series, Source Power series, and Double Resistance series continued to grow, with the Source Power 3.0 essence and Optical series launching new products [1] - The makeup brand Caitang grew by 32% on Taobao and Douyin platforms in Q3 [1] - The hair care category is expected to grow by 40-45%, with brands like Off&Relax and Jingshi showing strong potential [1] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 11.578 billion yuan, 14.260 billion yuan, and 16.944 billion yuan, respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is expected to be 1.522 billion yuan, 1.911 billion yuan, and 2.244 billion yuan, respectively [1] - The target market capitalization is 47.8 billion yuan, based on a 1x PEG ratio for 2025 net profit [1] Market Performance - Proya's online sales grew by 38% in Q1-Q3 2024, with direct sales up over 35% and distribution channels up over 45% [1] - Offline sales declined by 18% year-on-year due to base effects and channel adjustments [1] Financial Indicators - Revenue for 2023A was 8.905 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 39.5% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A was 1.194 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 46.1% [2] - EPS for 2023A was 3.01 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 32 [2] - Revenue growth rates for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are projected at 30.0%, 23.2%, and 18.8%, respectively [2] - Net profit growth rates for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are expected to be 27.5%, 25.6%, and 17.4%, respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [5][7]. Core Views - The company, Proya (珀莱雅), has shown steady performance as a leading domestic beauty brand, with Q3 2024 net profit increasing by 21% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.72%, and a net profit of 999 million yuan, up 33.95% year-on-year, indicating robust growth [2][4]. - The company maintained stable net profit margins, with a slight decrease in gross margin year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 70.71%, down 1.95 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 15.19%, up 0.02 percentage points year-on-year. The company has improved cost efficiency in Q3, leading to a sequential increase in gross profit margin [3][4]. - The average selling price of skincare products increased year-on-year, while the average selling prices of color cosmetics and hair care products saw slight declines. Skincare products generated revenue of 1.654 billion yuan in Q3 2024, up 20.68% year-on-year, with a 24.64% increase in average selling price. Color cosmetics revenue was 233 million yuan, up 18.71% year-on-year, but with a 6.65% decrease in average selling price [3][4]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 as follows: 2024E at 11.434 billion yuan (growth rate of 28.41%), 2025E at 14.182 billion yuan (growth rate of 24.03%), and 2026E at 17.205 billion yuan (growth rate of 21.31%). Net profit forecasts are 1.598 billion yuan for 2024E, 1.970 billion yuan for 2025E, and 2.406 billion yuan for 2026E, with corresponding growth rates of 33.91%, 23.20%, and 22.17% respectively [4][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2][9]. Core Views - The company achieved high-quality and steady growth in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 6.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.72%, and net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 33.95% to 999 million yuan [5][6]. - Despite a challenging environment for the beauty industry, the company reported a revenue growth of over 20% in Q3, outperforming the overall market trend [5][6]. - The company maintains a strong market position, ranking first in beauty sales on major e-commerce platforms during the Double Eleven shopping festival [6][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported: - Revenue: 69.66 billion yuan (+32.72%) - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 9.99 billion yuan (+33.95%) - Basic EPS: 2.53 yuan - Gross margin: 70.07% (-1.11 percentage points) - Net margin: 14.68% (-0.09 percentage points) [5][6]. - Q3 performance: - Revenue: 19.65 billion yuan (+21.15%) - Net profit: 2.98 billion yuan (+20.72%) [5][6]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 15.52 billion yuan, 19.03 billion yuan, and 23.08 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of approximately 24.7, 20.1, and 16.6 [6][7]. - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are expected to grow at rates of 39.5%, 29.1%, and 20.9% respectively [7][13]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading domestic brand in the beauty sector, with a systematic and standardized operational framework that enhances its competitiveness against international beauty groups [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 6.966 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.72%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 999 million yuan, up 33.95% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is recognized for its effective organizational structure and multi-brand strategy, which enhances its competitive position in a challenging market environment [9]. - The report projects revenue growth for 2024-2026, estimating revenues of 11.602 billion yuan, 14.166 billion yuan, and 16.705 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.559 billion yuan, 1.896 billion yuan, and 2.230 billion yuan [9][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.965 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.15%, and a net profit of 298 million yuan, up 20.72% year-on-year [6][11]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 70.71%, a decrease of 1.95 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [6]. - The overall operating profit for the first three quarters of 2024 grew by 27.47% year-on-year [8]. Revenue Breakdown - Skincare products generated 1.654 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 84.30% of total revenue, with an average selling price of 80.22 yuan per unit, up 24.64% year-on-year [6]. - Beauty makeup products contributed 233 million yuan, representing 11.88% of total revenue, with an average selling price of 94.55 yuan per unit, down 6.65% year-on-year [6]. - Hair care products generated 75 million yuan, making up 3.82% of total revenue, with an average selling price of 96.57 yuan per unit, down 6.84% year-on-year [6]. Expense Analysis - The selling expense ratio increased by 3.12 percentage points to 46.39% in the first three quarters of 2024, attributed to increased promotional activities [7]. - The overall expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 rose by 1.43 percentage points to 51.78% [7]. Future Projections - The report anticipates a continued upward trend in revenue and net profit, with a projected net profit margin of 13.4% for 2024 [14]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity, projected at 28.8% for 2025 [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company has shown a continued growth of 20% during the off-season, with expectations for strong performance during major promotional events [4] - The company reported a revenue of 6.966 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.7%, and a net profit of 999 million yuan, up 33.9% year-on-year [6] - The company has implemented a large product strategy, focusing on core products from the "Ruby Series" and "Source Series," and has launched new products to address various skin issues [7][8] Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.965 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.2%, and a net profit of 298 million yuan, up 20.7% year-on-year [6] - The gross profit margin increased by 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the sales expense ratio decreased by 1.3 percentage points [7] - The company expects revenues of 11.583 billion yuan, 14.286 billion yuan, and 17.309 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 30.1%, 23.3%, and 21.2% [9] Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing its 6*N strategy, focusing on multi-brand, multi-channel, and multi-category development, while exploring overseas opportunities [8] - The company is enhancing its core product matrix and building a self-driven agile organization to support its brand development [8] - The company has introduced new product lines, including the "Net Source Series" and "Optical Series," to expand its product offerings in the skincare and makeup sectors [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its long-term growth potential [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady growth in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 6.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.7%, and a net profit of 999 million yuan, up 33.95% year-on-year [1]. - The main brand, Proya, showed resilience with over 30% revenue growth in Q3, accounting for 79% of total revenue, while sub-brands also demonstrated positive growth [2]. - Online sales channels generated 6.528 billion yuan in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, marking a 38.48% increase year-on-year, while offline channels saw a decline of 18.08% [2]. - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 70.07%, reflecting a slight decrease, but the gross sales margin improved in Q3 compared to previous quarters [3]. - Despite increased competition from international beauty brands, the company maintained a strong market position, ranking top in various e-commerce platforms [4]. - The company is expected to exceed its stock incentive targets for the year, with a focus on brand expansion and international market penetration [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 15.68 billion yuan, 19.37 billion yuan, and 22.9 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.97 yuan, 4.91 yuan, and 5.8 yuan [5]. - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 25, 20, and 17 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to its growth prospects [5]. - The company’s net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 14.68%, showing stable profitability despite market challenges [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 115, representing a potential upside of 19.9% from the current price of RMB 95.9 [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 21.2% and a net profit growth of 20.7% in Q3 2024, which aligns with expectations despite being a traditionally weak sales season for cosmetics [1]. - The balanced growth across the main and sub-brands has contributed to the revenue increase, with both the main brand and the sub-brand 彩棠 achieving around 20% revenue growth, while the OR brand saw over 40% growth [1]. - The company has implemented various measures to improve profit margins, resulting in a sequential increase in gross margin by 1.1 percentage points to 70.7% in Q3 2024, despite a year-on-year decrease of 2 percentage points [1]. - The management is optimistic about the upcoming "Double 11" sales event, expecting strong performance due to the company's competitive pricing and enhanced online channel operations [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was RMB 6,385 million, with a year-on-year growth of 37.8%. Projections for 2024E revenue are RMB 11,590 million, reflecting a growth rate of 30.2% [2]. - Net profit for 2022 was RMB 817 million, with a year-on-year growth of 41.9%. The forecast for 2024E net profit is RMB 1,558 million, indicating a growth of 30.5% [2]. - The company's PE ratio is projected to decrease from 46.8 in 2022 to 24.4 in 2024E, reflecting an improving valuation as earnings grow [2]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 68.5% to 68.8% from 2024 to 2026, indicating a consistent profitability outlook [5]. Strategic Developments - The company has recently completed key personnel adjustments, including the appointment of a new CMO and chief scientist, which is expected to enhance strategic execution [1]. - Management is in the process of formulating a three-year strategic plan under the new CEO, focusing on expanding into overseas markets and developing a series of brand strategies [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Proya Cosmetics with a 12-month price target of RMB 107.50, implying an upside of 8.6% from the current price of RMB 99.00 [2][7][11]. Core Insights - Proya reported a 21% year-over-year growth in revenue and net income for 3Q24, aligning with market consensus, but operating profit fell 13% below expectations due to ROI pressure from increased KOL mix and product returns [2][11][12]. - The company is adopting a disciplined promotion strategy for the upcoming Double 11 sales event, which is expected to stabilize ROI despite a tougher sales environment [2][3][11]. - The forecast for 4Q sales and net income growth has been lowered to 25% and 22% year-over-year, respectively, reflecting recent trends and leading to a slight cut in 2024-26 net income estimates by 3% [2][11][12]. Summary by Sections Earnings Review - 3Q24 sales reached RMB 1,964.6 million, a 21.2% increase year-over-year, but 3% below Goldman Sachs estimates [4][11]. - Operating profit was RMB 342.8 million, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-over-year, and 16% below expectations [4][11]. - Net profit attributed to equity shareholders was RMB 297.5 million, up 20.7% year-over-year, but 8% below estimates [4][11]. Sales Performance - Online sales increased by 34% year-over-year, accounting for 94% of total sales, while offline sales declined by 52% [11][12]. - Skincare and cleanser sales grew by 21% year-over-year, while makeup sales increased by 19% [11][12]. Margin Analysis - Gross margin declined by 1.9 percentage points year-over-year to 70.7%, primarily due to higher product return rates and a greater mix of KOL livestreaming, which typically has lower margins [11][12]. - Selling and distribution expenses rose by 29% year-over-year to RMB 892 million, reflecting higher ROI pressure [11][12]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates an acceleration in sales during the upcoming promotion period, supported by top-tier KOL livestreaming lineups [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming results briefing for insights on 4Q24 sales and margin outlook, product roadmap, and potential M&A opportunities [3][11].

Q3 保持较快增长，毛销差同比收窄 核心观点 ⚫ 公司发布 24Q3 财报，前三季度实现营业收入 69.7 亿，同比增长 37.7%，实现归母 净利润 10 亿，同比增长 31.9%，其中 24Q3 的收入和归母净利润分别同比增加 21.2%和 20.7%，保持较快增长，符合市场预期。 ⚫ 24Q3 毛销差同比收窄。24Q3 公司毛利率同比下滑 1.9pct 至 70.7%，毛销差为 25.3%，同比缩小 4.7pct。环比来看，24Q3 的毛利率和归母净利率相比 24Q2 均有 所改善。 ⚫ 护肤品类量价齐升，呈现健康增长态势。分品类来看，1）护肤品：24Q3 收入为 16.53 亿，同比增长 20.7%，平均单价为 80.22 元，同比增长 24.64%，主要系单价 较高的大单品（精华、面霜类）销售占比变动所致。2）美容彩妆类：24Q3 收入为 2.3 亿，同比增长 18.7%，平均单价为 94.55 元，同比下滑 6.65%，主要系美容彩妆 类品牌 INSBAHA 销售占比增加，其售价低于美容彩妆类产品平均售价；3）洗护 类：24Q3 收入为 0.75 亿，同比增长 47.2%，平均单价为 96.57 ...

证券研究报告 美容护理 | 化妆品 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2024 年 10 月 27 日 证券分析师 事件：公司公布 2024 年三季报，2024 年前三季度实现营收 69.7 亿元，同增 32.7%， 实现归母净利润 10.0 亿元，同增 34.0%。其中，24Q3 实现营收 19.6 亿元，同比 +21.2%，归母净利润 3.0 亿元，同比+20.7%。 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 王悦 wangyue03@huayuanstock.com 业绩稳步增长，多品类持续释放增长势能。根据公司公告，拆分 24 年第三季度分 品类数据：1）护肤类产品（含洁肤）收入 16.5 亿元，同比增长 20.7%，占总收入 比重为 84.2%，产品均价 80.2 元/支，同比增加 24.6%，主要系单价较高的大单品 （精华、面霜类）销售占比变动所致；2）美容彩妆类产品收入 2.3 亿元，同比增 长 18.7%，占总收入比重为 11.9%，产品均价 94.6 元/支，同比下滑 6.7%，主因系 市场表现： 美容彩妆类品牌 INSBAHA ...