根据中国汽车工业(摩托车)产销快讯数据显示：2025年10月重庆隆鑫机车有限公司摩托车产量为111129 辆，同比下降30.42%，销量为113828辆，同比下降27.1%，产销率为102.43%，清仓2699辆。 上市公司：钱江摩托（000913），信隆健康（002105），征和工业（003033），久祺股份（300994）， 林海股份（600099），上海凤凰（600679），中路股份（600818），力帆科技（601777），春风动力 （603129），爱玛科技（603529），隆鑫通用（603766），永安行（603776），新日股份（603787）， 绿通科技（301322），涛涛车业（301345），华洋赛车（834058） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国摩托车行业市场全景评估及发展策略分析报告》 数据来源：中国汽车工业(摩托车)产销快讯，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决 ...

01 事件概述 1）125cc（不含）以上： 11 月销量 63.3 万辆，同比 +5.2% ，环比 +5.0% ，主要增量来自于 125-150cc 及 500-800cc ，春风动力、隆鑫通用等头部企业均贡献 明显增量； 2）250cc（不含）以上： 11 月销量 6.1 万辆，同比 +11.3% ，环比 +0.2% 。 1-11 月累计销量 88.3 万辆，同比 +28.3% 。其中： 出口： 250cc+摩托车 11 月出口 4.3 万辆，同比 +43.2% ，环比 +17.4% ， 1-11 月累计出口 49.2 万辆，同比 +57.6% 。 据中国摩托车商会数据， 2025 年 11 月 250cc （不含）以上摩托车销量 6.1 万辆，同比 +11.3% ，环比 +0.2% 。 1-11 月累计销量 88.3 万辆，同比 +28.3% 。 02 分析判断 ►行业：中大排月度销量稳健 增长 出海持续提速 内销： 250cc+摩托车 11 月内销 1.8 万辆，同比 -28.3% ，环比 -26.5% 。 1-11 月累计内销 39.1 万辆，同比 +3.9% 。 ► 结构：500cc+排量车型增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the motorcycle industry, particularly recommending companies such as Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle due to the rapid expansion of the mid-to-large displacement motorcycle market [19][20]. Core Insights - The mid-to-large displacement motorcycle market is experiencing robust growth, driven by new model launches and an increase in motorcycle culture. The report anticipates that domestic brands will be the biggest beneficiaries of the rising demand [19]. - Exports of motorcycles, especially those above 250cc, have shown significant growth, with November exports reaching 43,000 units, up 43.2% year-on-year [4][19]. - The report highlights the strong performance of leading companies in the industry, with Chuanfeng Power maintaining the top position in sales and market share [6][19]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November, sales of motorcycles above 125cc reached 633,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% and a month-on-month increase of 5.0%. The growth was primarily driven by the 125-150cc and 500-800cc segments [4]. - For motorcycles above 250cc, November sales were 61,000 units, up 11.3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Cumulatively, from January to November, sales reached 883,000 units, a 28.3% increase year-on-year [4][5]. Structural Insights - The report notes strong growth in the 500cc+ segment, with November sales of 13,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 55.7% and a cumulative increase of 121.1% for the year [5]. - The 250cc to 400cc segment saw November sales of 35,000 units, up 12.6% year-on-year, while the 400cc to 500cc segment experienced a decline of 16.8% year-on-year [5]. Competitive Landscape - The top three companies in the 250cc+ segment for November were Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle, with a combined market share of 46.7% [6]. - Chuanfeng Power's November sales were 12,000 units, a 40.1% increase year-on-year, while Longxin General's sales also increased by 51.7% year-on-year [6]. Future Outlook - The report projects continued growth in both domestic and export sales for mid-to-large displacement motorcycles, supported by the expansion of supply and the efforts of leading manufacturers [5][19]. - The introduction of new models, particularly in the 450cc and 650cc categories, is expected to drive sales further [13][19].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is at a new crossroads in 2026, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) boom and the rise of smart technology. Investment opportunities lie in commercial vehicles and two-wheeled vehicles, focusing on finding resilient alpha varieties and embracing the next industrial trends of smart technology and robotics/AIDC [4][10]. Group 1: Automotive Sector Investment Strategy - The automotive industry should reference the years 2011 and 2018 for strategic insights. The focus is on finding resilient alpha varieties and embracing the next industrial trends, particularly in smart technology and robotics/AIDC [4][10]. - The total domestic demand for passenger vehicles in 2026 is expected to be 22 million units, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, while the demand for new energy vehicles is projected to reach 13.2 million units, an increase of 6.4% [5][10]. - The wholesale sales of heavy trucks are forecasted to be 1.16 million units in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. Domestic sales are expected to decline by 5.5% to 770,000 units, while exports are projected to rise by 18.8% to 390,000-400,000 units [5][27]. Group 2: Key Investment Opportunities - In the bus sector, the top picks are Yutong Bus and Jinlong Automobile. For motorcycles, the preferred choices are Chunfeng Power and Longxin General. In the heavy truck sector, China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power are favored. For passenger vehicles, BYD is the primary choice, with Jianghuai Automobile as a secondary option. In the parts sector, Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., and Minth Group are recommended [6][10]. - The L4 RoboX investment opportunities focus on the B-end software sector over C-end hardware. Preferred stocks include XPeng Motors, Horizon Robotics, and others in the H-share market, while A-share selections include Qianli Technology and Desay SV [7][10]. - The robotics and AIDC investment opportunities are highlighted, with a focus on the upcoming Optimus V3 overseas and the rapid development of domestic robotics. Key selections include Top Group for robotics and liquid cooling, and Junsheng Electronics for robotics [7][10]. Group 3: Market Forecasts - The passenger vehicle market is expected to see a total sales volume of 22 million units in 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. New energy vehicle sales are projected to reach 13.2 million units, an increase of 6.4% [5][17]. - The heavy truck market is forecasted to have a wholesale volume of 1.16 million units in 2026, with domestic sales declining by 5.5% to 770,000 units, while exports are expected to rise by 18.8% [5][27]. - The bus sector is anticipated to maintain a strong export growth rate of over 30%, with domestic sales expected to reach 81,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3% [5][32]. Group 4: Motorcycle Market Insights - The motorcycle industry is projected to have total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 14%. The large-displacement motorcycle segment is expected to reach 1.26 million units, a 31% increase [5][34]. - Domestic sales of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to reach 430,000 units, a 5% increase, while exports are projected to be 830,000 units, a 50% increase [5][35]. Group 5: Future Trends and Innovations - The penetration rate of smart driving technology in new energy vehicles is expected to rise to 40% by 2026, with significant growth in the use of domestic chips [22][23]. - The heavy truck export market is expected to recover, with significant growth in regions such as Southeast Asia and Africa, driven by local infrastructure and mining demands [28][29].

Core Conclusions - The 2026 automotive industry investment strategy emphasizes "breaking old and establishing new," suggesting that the industry is at a crossroads similar to 2011 and 2018, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) boom and the rise of smart technology [2][3] - The report predicts a total domestic demand of 22 million vehicles in 2026, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales expected to reach 13.2 million, an increase of 6.4% [2][10] - The commercial vehicle sector is expected to see a wholesale volume of 1.16 million units in 2026, with a slight increase of 1.5% year-on-year, while the bus sector is projected to maintain strong export growth [2][19] Passenger Vehicle Sector - The passenger vehicle sector is projected to experience a total sales volume of 22 million units in 2026, with NEV sales expected to reach 13.2 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [2][10] - The report highlights the impact of a 5% purchase tax on NEVs starting January 1, 2026, which is expected to support domestic demand [10] - Key investment opportunities include BYD and Jianghuai Automobile in the passenger vehicle sector [2][3] Commercial Vehicle Sector - The heavy truck segment is forecasted to have a wholesale volume of 1.16 million units in 2026, with domestic sales expected to decline by 5.5% to 770,000 units, while exports are projected to grow by 18.8% [2][15] - The bus sector is expected to see a total domestic sales volume of 81,000 units, with exports anticipated to grow by over 30% [2][19] Motorcycle Sector - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 14%, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [2][22] - Domestic sales of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to reach 430,000 units, while exports are projected to grow significantly [22] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies key investment opportunities across various segments, including Yutong Bus and King Long in the bus sector, and Spring Power and Longxin General in the motorcycle sector [2][3] - The focus on L4 RoboX investment opportunities highlights the importance of software over hardware in the autonomous driving sector, with recommended stocks including XPeng Motors and Horizon Robotics [2][3] Growth Trends - The report anticipates a continued focus on smart technology and robotics, with significant growth expected in the L4 RoboX industry and AIDC (Automated Identification and Data Capture) sectors [2][3] - The penetration rate of smart driving technology in new energy vehicles is expected to reach 40% by 2026, with a notable shift in chip supplier market shares [13][14]

Summary of Longxin General's Conference Call Company Overview - Longxin General's total revenue for 2024 reached 12.69 billion yuan, with motorcycle business accounting for 75% and general machinery business contributing 3.54 billion yuan, representing 21% of total revenue [2][3] - The company is transitioning from OEM to developing its own brands, with self-owned high-end brand revenue in the first half of 2025 growing by 42.43% year-on-year to 2.334 billion yuan, making up 24% of total revenue [2][5] Industry Insights - The global ATV market is expected to grow to approximately 15 billion USD by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 4% [4][15] - The Chinese motorcycle engine market is recovering, with sales expected to increase by 10.6% in 2024 to 16.08 million units [4][16] - The general machinery market in China is expanding, with production increasing from less than 500,000 units in 2000 to over 30 million units in 2023, making China a key production base [18][19] Financial Performance - Longxin General's net profit is projected to be 2 billion yuan in 2025 and may reach 2.5 billion yuan in 2026, indicating a relatively low valuation at around 15 times earnings [4][24] - The company has seen a significant recovery in profits in 2024 after a decline from 2018 to 2021, with goodwill impairment issues largely resolved [8] Market Performance - Longxin's high-end motorcycle brand, Wujing, performed well in the European market, generating 1.021 billion yuan in sales in 2024, accounting for 6% of total revenue [2][5] - The company has shifted from low-displacement motorcycles to high-end brands, with market share in Spain increasing from 4.2% in 2024 to 6.6% in the first eight months of 2025 [2][14] Competitive Landscape - Longxin General is addressing competition issues with Zongshen Power through equity restructuring, expected to be completed by the end of 2026 [2][7] - The company has a strong technical foundation in engine manufacturing, with over 200 models and partnerships with international brands like BMW [12][17] Strategic Initiatives - Longxin General plans to enhance its high-end brand through technological innovation and international collaboration, while also focusing on resolving competition issues to improve operational efficiency [11] - The company is implementing a "one plus N" strategy for overseas market expansion, focusing on core markets like Italy and Spain before expanding to surrounding regions [13][14] Future Outlook - The company aims to maintain a compound growth rate of about 10% in its communication business, despite slower growth [22] - Longxin General's future market value could reach 40-45 billion yuan based on distribution valuation methods, indicating significant upside potential from its current market cap of just over 30 billion yuan [4][24]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The motorcycle industry is experiencing a shift with policy support and market optimization, indicating a potential turning point in high prosperity for the sector in 2025 [1][2][5] - The electric two-wheeler market is driven by trade-in policies, but the effectiveness of these policies is diminishing, leading to a subdued sales performance post-implementation of new national standards [1][12] Key Insights on Motorcycle Market - In 2025, the domestic sales growth of large-displacement motorcycles is expected to stabilize, with a projected year-on-year growth of single digits from January to October, maintaining levels similar to the previous year [2][5] - The top companies in the large-displacement motorcycle segment, such as Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle, hold a market share of approximately 20%-30% and are likely to benefit from the expansion of the leisure consumer base [3][5] Export Performance - China’s motorcycle exports are robust, with 110cc and above motorcycle exports increasing by 24% year-on-year, and 250cc and above models seeing a 60% increase [6][9] - The overseas market, particularly in North America, South America, and Europe, presents significant growth potential, with the total global motorcycle sales exceeding 50 million units annually [6][9] Competitive Landscape - Chinese brands are narrowing the performance gap with Japanese brands through improved product features and supply chain advantages, achieving a market share of over 5% in Europe [7][8] - The Turkish market is experiencing short-term challenges due to currency fluctuations, impacting sales for companies heavily reliant on exports, but long-term growth prospects remain positive [9][10] Electric Two-Wheeler Market Insights - The electric two-wheeler market is expected to grow by approximately 10% in 2025, driven by trade-in policies, although the impact of these policies is expected to wane in 2026 [12][14] - Major players like Yadi and Aima are positioned to capture market share due to the challenges faced by smaller companies, especially in light of new national standards [12][13] Recommendations - The motorcycle sector is recommended for investment, particularly in companies like Chuanfeng Power and Longxin General, which are expected to outperform the industry average growth in 2026 [4][11][18] - For the electric two-wheeler segment, companies such as Yadi, Aima, and 9号 are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of market share opportunities in 2026, provided they can adapt to new market conditions [18] Additional Considerations - The electric golf cart market is primarily concentrated in North America, with significant growth expected, particularly in the outdoor segment where Chinese brands hold a substantial market share [15][16] - Chinese electric golf cart manufacturers are responding to anti-dumping measures by relocating production to Southeast Asia, which is expected to enhance their competitive position in the North American market [17]

Key Points - The core view is that in the heavy truck sector, exports will surpass domestic sales by 2026, with electric and natural gas vehicles outpacing diesel trucks, focusing on export leaders [2][3][12] - For 2025, domestic sales are expected to reach 814,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.2%, while exports are projected at 332,000 units, up 14.3%, leading to a total wholesale volume of 1,143,000 units, reflecting a 26.7% increase [2][19] - The natural demand for heavy trucks is stabilizing, with an estimated 646,000 units driven by natural demand in 2025, indicating that policy support is not the sole driver of growth [2][19] - By 2026, the penetration rate of electric heavy trucks is expected to rise to 30%-35%, with natural gas trucks also gaining traction as gas prices decline and oil prices stabilize [3][12] - Investment recommendations include focusing on export leaders such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck H), engine leaders like Weichai Power, and companies with potential in both export and domestic sales like China National Heavy Duty Truck A, FAW Jiefang, Foton Motor, and CIMC Vehicles [3][12] Commercial Vehicle Sector - The bus sector is expected to see stronger external demand than internal demand in 2026, with a projected 3% increase in domestic sales and a 30% increase in exports [5][13] - The key players in the bus sector include Yutong and King Long, which are expected to benefit from the dual drivers of domestic recovery and sustained overseas demand [6][13] Motorcycle Sector - The motorcycle market is witnessing a decline in domestic sales but a significant increase in exports, particularly for large-displacement motorcycles, which are expected to grow by 31% year-on-year in 2026 [8][14] - The total motorcycle sales for 2026 are projected to reach 19.38 million units, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles expected to account for 1.26 million units [8][14] - Investment recommendations in the motorcycle sector favor leading companies such as Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [9][14]

Market Overview - On December 12, the motorcycle and other sectors rose by 0.25% compared to the previous trading day, with Zhenghe Industrial leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.35, up 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13258.33, up 0.84% [1] Stock Performance - Zhenghe Industrial (003033) closed at 68.48, with a significant increase of 10.01% and a trading volume of 24,900 lots, amounting to 167 million yuan [1] - Longxin General (603766) saw a rise of 2.21%, closing at 16.17 with a trading volume of 544,800 lots, totaling 867 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Lvtong Technology (301322) with a 1.93% increase, closing at 26.87, and Ninebot (600689) with a 0.71% increase, closing at 57.87 [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The motorcycle and other sectors experienced a net outflow of 165 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 145 million yuan [2] - The overall fund flow indicates that while institutional investors were withdrawing, retail investors were actively buying into the sector [2] Individual Stock Fund Flow - Zhenghe Industrial had a net inflow of 33.58 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 17.68 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - TaoTao Vehicle (301345) experienced a net inflow of 5.57 million yuan from institutional investors, but a significant outflow of 36.34 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - The fund flow data suggests varying levels of investor confidence across different stocks within the sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company believes that the recent tariff increase on motorcycles imported from China to Mexico will have a limited direct impact on its existing business operations [1] Group 1: Business Model and Tariff Impact - The company's core business model effectively mitigates the risk of tariffs on complete motorcycles, as it exports products in fully disassembled form to local assembly plants in Mexico [1] - The new tariff on complete motorcycles has been raised to 35%, but this does not apply to the company's current export operations due to its use of the IKD model [1] - The impact on other related products is also expected to be minimal, as the definitions in the tariff legislation do not typically include "disassembled" or "kit" products intended for assembly [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company will continue to closely monitor global trade policy developments and actively respond to ensure the stability and sustainability of its business [1]