Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Expected High Dividend Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses a two-stage process to construct the expected dividend yield indicator. The first stage calculates the dividend yield based on annual report profit distribution data, while the second stage predicts and calculates the dividend yield using historical dividend data and fundamental indicators. Additionally, two short-term factors—reversal factor and profitability factor—are used to assist in stock selection. The portfolio is optimized within the CSI 300 constituents[4][9] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Exclude suspended and limit-up stocks from the CSI 300 constituents to form the initial stock pool[14] 2. Remove the top 20% of stocks with the highest short-term momentum (21-day cumulative returns)[14] 3. Exclude stocks with declining profitability (quarterly net profit growth rate < 0)[14] 4. Rank the remaining stocks by expected dividend yield and select the top 30 stocks to construct an equal-weighted portfolio[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates a systematic approach to identifying high-dividend stocks, leveraging both historical data and fundamental analysis for robust stock selection[4][9] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Expected High Dividend Portfolio - **Cumulative Return**: 358.90% relative to the CSI 300 Total Return Index from February 2, 2009, to August 31, 2017[12] - **Cumulative Excess Return**: 107.44% over the same period[12] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 8.87%[12] - **Maximum Drawdown of Rolling One-Year Excess Return**: 12.26%[12] - **Monthly Excess Win Rate**: 60.19%[12] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Expected Dividend Yield Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor predicts dividend yield by combining historical dividend data with fundamental indicators. It is used to identify stocks with high expected dividend yields[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate dividend yield based on annual report profit distribution data[4][9] 2. Predict and calculate dividend yield using historical dividend data and fundamental indicators[4][9] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively integrates historical and fundamental data to predict dividend yields, providing a solid foundation for high-dividend stock selection[4][15] 2. Factor Name: Reversal Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor identifies stocks with short-term price reversals, which may impact dividend yield predictions[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Measure short-term momentum using 21-day cumulative returns and exclude the top 20% of stocks with the highest momentum[14] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor helps mitigate the impact of short-term price surges, ensuring a focus on stable dividend yield predictions[4][15] 3. Factor Name: Profitability Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor screens out stocks with declining profitability, ensuring the selection of fundamentally strong companies[4][15] - **Factor Construction Process**: Exclude stocks with quarterly net profit growth rates less than 0[14] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor ensures the portfolio is composed of financially sound companies, enhancing the reliability of dividend yield predictions[4][15] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Expected Dividend Yield Factor - **June 2025 Average Return**: 1.84%[15] - **Excess Return Relative to CSI 300**: -0.83%[15] - **Excess Return Relative to CSI Dividend Index**: 2.40%[15] 2. Reversal Factor - **Impact**: Excluded the top 20% of stocks with the highest short-term momentum, ensuring stability in the portfolio's dividend yield predictions[14] 3. Profitability Factor - **Impact**: Excluded stocks with declining profitability, maintaining a focus on fundamentally strong companies[14]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of June 27, 2025, Oppein Home (603833) closed at 55.69 yuan, down 0.68%, with a turnover rate of 0.3% and a trading volume of 18,300 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 102 million yuan [1]. Trading Information - On June 27, the capital flow for Oppein Home indicated a net outflow of 5.6371 million yuan from main funds, accounting for 5.52% of the total transaction value [2][4]. - Retail investors showed a net inflow of 9.9581 million yuan, representing 9.75% of the total transaction value [2]. Company Announcements - Oppein Home announced that it provided a maximum guarantee of 450 million yuan for its subsidiaries, including Wuxi Oppein, Tianjin Oppein, and Chengdu Oppein, for contracts signed with CITIC Bank Guangzhou Branch from June 26, 2025, to June 18, 2028 [2]. - As of the announcement date, the actual guarantees provided were 49.8277 million yuan for Wuxi Oppein, 0 yuan for Tianjin Oppein, and 0 yuan for Chengdu Oppein [2]. - The company has not provided any counter-guarantees, and the cumulative amount of overdue guarantees is 0 [2]. - The company’s board approved a projected external guarantee limit of up to 20 billion yuan for 2025 [2]. - The total approved external guarantee amount for the company and its subsidiaries is 200 billion yuan, which is 104.97% of the latest audited net assets, with an actual external guarantee balance of 27.878375 billion yuan, accounting for 14.63% of the latest audited net assets [2].

Group 1: Gold and Jewelry - In H1 2025, gold prices surged, leading to a decline in gold jewelry consumption while investment gold consumption increased, continuing the trend from 2024 [13][17] - The report anticipates that in H2 2025, gold prices may fluctuate at high levels due to geopolitical conflicts and economic downturns, with central banks continuing to purchase gold [23] - Recommended companies include Laopuhuang, Chow Tai Fook, Chao Hong Ji, and Cai Bai Co., which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in gold consumption [23][24][26][30] Group 2: Cosmetics - The cosmetics market showed weak performance in H1 2025, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.1% from January to May, lagging behind overall retail growth [32][35] - Long-term trends in the cosmetics industry remain focused on increasing penetration rates and domestic brand substitution, with a recommendation to focus on brands like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei Co. for their strong performance and growth potential [35][36][42] - Mao Ge Ping is highlighted for its high-end positioning and significant growth in both online and offline channels, while Shangmei Co. has shown impressive performance during promotional events [36][42] Group 3: Personal Care - The personal care sector, particularly in sanitary napkins and oral care, is expected to maintain stable demand, with domestic brands leading the market [49][51] - The oral care segment is experiencing a shift towards higher-value products driven by consumer demand for efficacy, with domestic brands like Deng Kang Oral Care gaining market share [53][54] - Key companies to watch include Baiya Co. and Deng Kang Oral Care, which are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [49][53] Group 4: Apparel and Footwear - The apparel retail sector showed moderate growth in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in retail sales from January to May [8][14] - Outdoor brands are performing exceptionally well, with high-end outdoor brands like Amer Sports and Anta showing significant revenue growth [8][15] - Recommended companies include Anta Sports for its strong outdoor brand growth and Mercury Home Textiles for its effective marketing strategies [15][16] Group 5: Textile Manufacturing - The textile manufacturing sector is witnessing a shift in export share towards Southeast Asia, with a notable decline in imports from China to the U.S. [8][18] - The report indicates that U.S. apparel imports from Southeast Asia are increasing, while imports from China are decreasing, suggesting a strategic shift in manufacturing locations [18][19] - Companies with diversified production capabilities across regions are recommended for investment consideration [18][19] Group 6: Home Furnishings - The home furnishings market is experiencing growth driven by government policies encouraging upgrades, with furniture retail sales in May 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of 25.6% [8][20] - Key players in the home furnishings sector include Gujia Home and Oppein Home, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing market trends [20][21]

证券代码：603833 证券简称：欧派家居 公告编号：2025-040 转债代码：113655 转债简称：欧 22 转债 欧派家居集团股份有限公司 关于公司及控股子公司对外担保进展公告 ●本次担保金额及已实际为其提供的担保余额：为确保子公司无锡欧派、天津欧派、成都 欧派与中信银行股份有限公司广州分行（以下简称"中信银行广州分行"）在一定期限内连续发 生的多笔债务的履行，保障中信银行广州分行债权的实现，欧派家居集团股份有限公司（简称 "公司"或"欧派家居"）作为保证人为无锡欧派、天津欧派、成都欧派与中信银行广州分行在 2025 年 6 月 26 日至 2028 年 6 月 18 日期间签订的全部主合同提供最高额保证担保，本次合计担保 的最高债权额为人民币 45,000 万元。公司已实际分别为无锡欧派、天津欧派、成都欧派向各 银行提供的担保余额为人民币 4,982.77 万元、0 万元、0 万元。 ●本次担保是否有提供反担保：无 ●对外担保逾期的累计数量为：0 一、本次担保情况概述 （一）本次担保的基本情况 近日，公司与中信银行广州分行签订了《最高额保证合同》，为确保子公司无锡欧派、天 津欧派、成都欧派与中信银行 ...

Group 1: Market and Performance Review - The light industry and textile apparel sectors have outperformed the CSI 300 index, with textile apparel rising by 2.05% and light industry by 2.43% as of June 24, 2025 [21][22] - In Q1 2025, the light industry saw a revenue decline of 0.78% year-on-year, while the textile apparel sector experienced a 13.33% decline in revenue [25][29] - The light industry’s net profit decreased by 18.85% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while the textile apparel sector's net profit fell by 5.56% [25][29] Group 2: Home and Electric Two-Wheeler Industries - The home and electric two-wheeler sectors are expected to benefit from the deepening of the old-for-new policy, which is anticipated to improve demand and sales [37][44] - In the first five months of 2025, the retail sales of furniture increased by 21.40% year-on-year, significantly boosted by the old-for-new policy [43][44] - The electric two-wheeler industry faced challenges, with a projected 10.55% decline in sales for 2024, but the old-for-new policy is expected to support sales recovery [59][65] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - The "谷子" economy, driven by Z generation consumers who value emotional and self-satisfying purchases, is projected to reach a market size of 1,689 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 40.63% year-on-year [7][79] - The pet food market is expected to grow to 3,002 billion yuan by 2024, with a significant increase in consumer preference for domestic brands [97][105] - The sanitary products market is also evolving, with non-leading domestic brands showing potential for growth due to the rise of e-commerce and consumer preferences for single products [7][105]

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating report indicates that Oppein Home Group Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise in the custom home furnishing industry, with a stable outlook for 2024 despite facing challenges from the real estate market and declining consumer demand [3][5][10]. Company Overview - Oppein Home Group is recognized as a leading player in the custom home furnishing sector, boasting a significant number of distribution stores and production capacity that surpasses its competitors [5][12]. - As of the end of 2024, the company had 7,750 distribution stores, significantly more than the second-largest competitor [5][12]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 189.25 billion yuan in 2024, a decline of 17.75% year-on-year, marking its first revenue drop in recent years [10][12]. - Net profit for 2024 was 26.03 billion yuan, also reflecting a decrease compared to previous years [4][12]. - The company's cash flow remains strong, with a cash asset to debt coverage ratio of 2.16 as of the end of 2024 [5][12]. Market Challenges - The custom home furnishing industry is currently experiencing pressure due to a downturn in the real estate market and a general decline in consumer spending [10][11]. - The overall market for custom furniture has seen a revenue decline, with some companies reporting drops exceeding 32.68% in 2024 [10][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is transitioning towards a "whole home" strategy, which includes expanding its product offerings and enhancing its service capabilities to adapt to changing market demands [10][12]. - Oppein is also focusing on integrating its distribution channels, including traditional retail and new "whole home" service models, to improve customer acquisition and retention [12][14]. Production and Supply Chain - The company operates five major production bases across China, which supports its national sales strategy and provides a competitive edge in production scale [15][16]. - The production capacity utilization has decreased due to declining demand, and the company is facing challenges in managing inventory levels [16][19]. Financial Health - As of March 2025, the company reported total assets of 353.10 billion yuan, with a debt level of 86.46 billion yuan [4][19]. - The company's financial structure shows a high level of liquidity, with cash and cash equivalents making up 56.61% of total assets [17][19]. Industry Comparison - Compared to its peers, Oppein maintains a leading position in terms of revenue and net profit, with a significant market share in key product categories such as wardrobes and cabinets [8][12]. - The company's sales margin remains competitive, although it faces increasing pressure from market competitors and changing consumer preferences [10][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the announcement is that the credit ratings for the company and its convertible bond "欧 22 转债" remain unchanged at "AA" with a stable outlook [1][2] - The previous credit rating for the company and the bond was also "AA" with a stable outlook, indicating consistency in the company's financial health [2] - The credit rating was conducted by 中证鹏元资信评估股份有限公司 based on a comprehensive analysis of the company's operational status and related industry [2] Group 2 - The announcement confirms that the credit rating results were disclosed on the same day on the Shanghai Stock Exchange website [2] - The rating assessment was last updated on June 18, 2024, and the current assessment is for the year 2025 [2]

前次主体信用等级："AA"，"欧 22 转债"的债券信用等级："AA"，评级展望为"稳 定"。 | 证券代码：603833 | 证券简称：欧派家居 | 公告编号：2025-039 | | --- | --- | --- | | 转债代码：113655 | 转债简称：欧 22 转债 | | 欧派家居集团股份有限公司 关于"欧 22 转债"2025 年跟踪评级结果的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 本次主体信用等级："AA"，"欧 22 转债"的债券信用等级："AA"，评级展望为"稳 定"。本次评级结果较前次没有变化。 根据《上市公司证券发行注册管理办法》《上海证券交易所公司债券上市规则》等有 关规定，欧派家居集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）委托中证鹏元资信评估股份有限 公司（以下简称"中证鹏元"）对公司及公司于 2022 年 8 月 5 日公开发行的可转换公司债券 （简称"欧 22 转债"）进行了跟踪信用评级。 公司前次主体信用等级为"AA","欧 22 转债"前次债券信用等级为"AA", ...

欧派家居集团股份有限公司相关 债券 2025 年跟踪评级报告 中鹏信评【2025】跟踪第【234】号 01 信用评级报告声明 除因本次评级事项本评级机构与评级对象构成委托关系外，本评级机构及评级从业人员与评级对象不存 在任何足以影响评级行为独立、客观、公正的关联关系。 本评级机构与评级从业人员已履行尽职调查义务，有充分理由保证所出具的评级报告遵循了真实、客观、 公正原则，但不对评级对象及其相关方提供或已正式对外公布信息的合法性、真实性、准确性和完整性 作任何保证。 本评级机构依据内部信用评级标准和工作程序对评级结果作出独立判断，不受任何组织或个人的影响。 本评级报告观点仅为本评级机构对评级对象信用状况的个体意见，不作为购买、出售、持有任何证券的 建议。本评级机构不对任何机构或个人因使用本评级报告及评级结果而导致的任何损失负责。 本次评级结果自本评级报告所注明日期起生效，有效期为被评证券的存续期。同时，本评级机构已对受 评对象的跟踪评级事项做出了明确安排，并有权在被评证券存续期间变更信用评级。本评级机构提醒报 告使用者应及时登陆本公司网站关注被评证券信用评级的变化情况。 本评级报告版权归本评级机构所有，未经授权 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [6][10]. Core Insights - The light industry exports continued to weaken in May, while U.S. furniture retail sales showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. Domestic furniture retail sales in China rose by 25.6% year-on-year, supported by the progress of the "old-for-new" subsidy program, which has reached 54% [2][3][18]. - Meta has launched a new AI sports eyewear product, Oakley Meta HSTN, which is expected to catalyze industry innovation [4][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the recovery of the home furnishing sector as the "old-for-new" subsidy program is implemented in key cities, improving customer traffic and order data. It recommends leading companies in customized home furnishing, such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Kuka Home, as well as Bull Group and Good Wife for their growth potential in smart home products [16][17]. 2. Research Tracking and Investment Thoughts - In May, light industry exports fell by 9.4% year-on-year, with the decline accelerating compared to April. The U.S. furniture retail sector remains robust, reflecting strong demand [2][19]. - The "old-for-new" subsidy program has driven significant retail sales growth in furniture, with a total of 1.1 trillion yuan in sales supported by 1.75 billion subsidies issued [3][25]. - The launch of Meta's AI eyewear is seen as a potential catalyst for innovation in the industry [4][30]. 3. Market Review - The light industry sector experienced a decline of 3.06% last week, underperforming the broader market [31]. 4. Key Data Tracking - In May, furniture retail sales in China reached 170 billion yuan, up 25.6% year-on-year, while building materials sales fell by 2.9% [34]. - The report notes a decrease in domestic prices for various paper products, with significant drops in packaging paper prices [42][50]. - Real estate data indicates a 3.3% year-on-year decline in property transaction volumes in 30 major cities [58]. - The furniture export value in May was 5.64 billion USD, down 9.4% year-on-year, while paper and paper products exports also saw a slight decline [67].