Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Basic Materials, specifically focusing on Copper and Aluminium - **Current Trends**: Fundamentals are stable with an improving outlook for industrial metals driven by macroeconomic factors such as US rate cuts, US dollar weakness, and China's potential stimulus measures due to weak economic data [2][3] Core Insights - **Copper Market**: - Demand normalization post-tariff has not negatively impacted prices as anticipated in Q3 2025 [2] - UBS raised copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 3% to US$4.37/lb and US$4.80/lb respectively [3] - Expected supply constraints and strong secular growth drivers (e.g., electrification) will support prices in 2026/2027 [3] - **Aluminium Market**: - Demand remains mixed, but supply constraints, particularly from China, are supporting prices [4] - Aluminium price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were increased by 5% and 2% to US$1.17/lb and US$1.18/lb respectively [4] Earnings and Price Target Adjustments - **Earnings Forecasts**: - Increased earnings forecasts for Zijin, CMOC, and JCC by 4%-5% for 2025 and 5%-9% for 2026 due to higher price expectations for copper, aluminium, and gold [5] - Specific earnings adjustments include: - Zijin: 2025 NPAT raised to Rmb 46,519 million (+4%) and 2026 NPAT to Rmb 57,056 million (+9%) [19] - CMOC: 2025 NPAT raised to Rmb 17,504 million (+5%) and 2026 NPAT to Rmb 19,200 million (+6%) [19] - **Price Target Changes**: - Price targets for key companies were raised, including: - Zijin H: Target increased by 9% to Rmb 35.4 [19] - CMOC H: Target increased by 6% to Rmb 17.5 [19] - Hongqiao: Target increased by 4% to Rmb 28.0 [19] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: - The overall outlook for industrial metals is improving, with a reduced risk of a near-term demand slowdown [2] - Potential for restocking in developed markets could support prices as traditional end markets recover [2] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Top picks include Zijin, JCC, Hongqiao, and Tianshan based on revised earnings and price targets [5] Important but Overlooked Content - **Macroeconomic Drivers**: The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic themes rather than physical market tightness in supporting metal prices [2] - **Equity Rotation**: There is a noted equity rotation into mining stocks, indicating investor confidence in the sector's recovery [2] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the copper and aluminium markets, along with specific company performance forecasts and investment recommendations.

Group 1 - Cobalt stocks continue to rise, with Liqin Resources (02245) up 6.68% to HKD 17.4 and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) (03993) up 0.55% to HKD 12.9 [1] - The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo updated its cobalt export policy on September 20, extending the export ban to October 15, 2025, and setting export quotas for 2026-2027 at only 44% of annual production [1] - CITIC Securities predicts that the export quotas will lead to global cobalt supply being significantly below normal levels from 2025 to 2027, which is expected to drive cobalt prices higher [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley notes that the extension of the cobalt export ban until October 15 will be followed by quotas, with the 2026-2027 quota set at 40% of normal production [1] - If Luoyang Molybdenum receives a proportional quota, potential sales for Q4 2025 could be approximately 8,600 tons, and around 43,600 tons for 2026-2027 [1] - Minsheng Securities highlights that Liqin Resources has a large-scale nickel production capacity in Indonesia with cost advantages, positioning the company to benefit significantly from rising cobalt prices [1]

Group 1 - Cobalt stocks continue to rise, with Liqin Resources up 6.68% to HKD 17.4 and Luoyang Molybdenum up 0.55% to HKD 12.9 [1] - The Congolese government updated its cobalt export policy on September 20, extending the export ban to October 15, 2025, and setting export quotas for 2026-2027 at only 44% of annual production [1] - CITIC Securities predicts that the export quotas will lead to significantly lower global cobalt supply from 2025 to 2027, resulting in a strong potential increase in cobalt prices [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley notes that if Luoyang Molybdenum receives proportional quotas, potential sales could be approximately 8,600 tons in Q4 2025 and about 43,600 tons for 2026-2027 [1] - Minsheng Securities highlights that Liqin Resources has a large-scale wet nickel production capacity in Indonesia, which positions the company to benefit significantly from rising cobalt prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd., is a significant player in the non-ferrous metal mining industry, focusing on the production of molybdenum, tungsten, and precious metals like gold, with a strong emphasis on expanding its precious metal business [2][3]. Company Overview - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. was established on December 22, 1999, and listed on October 9, 2012. The company is primarily engaged in the mining, selection, smelting, deep processing, and trading of precious metals [7]. - The company's main business revenue composition includes refined metal product trading (48.56%), concentrate product trading (38.31%), copper (27.14%), cobalt (6.04%), molybdenum (3.12%), phosphorus (2.23%), niobium (1.88%), tungsten (1.17%), and others (0.11%) [7]. Production and Financial Performance - The company holds an 80% stake in the NPM copper-gold mine in Australia, with gold equity production guidance for 2023 set at 25,000 to 27,000 ounces, representing a year-on-year increase of 56% to 69% [2]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 94.773 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 60.07% to 8.671 billion yuan [8]. - The company is the second-largest producer of phosphorus fertilizer in Brazil and has a complete phosphorus industry chain, with phosphorus-related product revenue of 2.834 billion yuan in 2017, accounting for 11.82% of total revenue [3]. Market Activity - On September 22, the company's stock rose by 1.60%, with a trading volume of 2.481 billion yuan and a market capitalization of 271.922 billion yuan [1]. - The company has experienced a net outflow of 7.6914 million yuan from major funds today, with a continuous reduction in major fund positions over the past three days [4][5]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 15.95% to 237,500, with an average of 0 circulating shares per person [8]. - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 648 million shares, and Huaxia SSE 50 ETF, which holds 138 million shares, both of which have increased their holdings compared to the previous period [9].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent Congo export policy for cobalt is expected to drive prices upward, with a significant reduction in export quotas leading to increased demand for replenishment from downstream enterprises [6] - The report suggests a bullish outlook for precious metals following the recent FOMC meeting, despite some market adjustments, indicating a potential slow bull market for gold [4] - Copper prices are anticipated to break through key resistance levels, supported by seasonal demand increases in China [5] - The aluminum market is expected to see price increases due to rising downstream consumption as the National Day holiday approaches [5] - Lithium demand is projected to grow significantly, driven by a major contract signed by CATL for lithium iron phosphate materials, indicating a strong outlook for lithium prices [7] - Uranium prices are expected to rise due to potential export restrictions from Russia, which could significantly impact global supply [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 6522.39, with a weekly high of 6795.38 and a low of 3912.76 [1] Price Movements - Basic metals saw declines: copper down 1.19%, aluminum down 1.33%, zinc down 2.88%, lead down 0.17%, and tin down 1.53%. Precious metals had mixed results with gold down 0.22% and silver up 1.13% [21] Inventory Levels - Global visible inventories increased for copper by 7945 tons, aluminum by 8010 tons, and zinc by 2724 tons, while lead saw a decrease of 4085 tons [29]

Group 1 - UBS reports that industrial metal prices are supported by positive macroeconomic factors, including US interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, confidence in AI trade, and China's anti-involution policies along with potential additional stimulus measures from China [1] - The overall outlook for industrial metals is improving, with the risk of a significant short-term demand slowdown diminishing, while the medium-term fundamentals for copper and aluminum remain attractive [1] - UBS has raised its copper price forecasts for this year and next by 3%, from $4.24 and $4.68 per pound to $4.37 and $4.80 respectively, due to limited supply growth and recovering traditional demand [1] Group 2 - UBS has increased its earnings estimates for Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Jiangxi Copper (600362) by 4%, 5%, and 5% respectively for this year, and by 9%, 6%, and 5% for next year [2] - The firm has also raised its earnings forecasts for China Hongqiao, Aluminum Corporation of China (601600), and Tianshan Aluminum (002532) by 5% to 8% for next year [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that cobalt prices have shown significant fluctuations due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with a 58% increase from February 24 to June 20, followed by a 6% increase from June 20 to September 18 [1] - The DRC's export ban has led to high inventory levels in the cobalt industry outside the DRC, and weak downstream demand during the off-peak season has contributed to the limited price increase after the ban was extended [1][2] - China's imports of cobalt raw materials from the DRC have significantly decreased since June, with imports dropping by 61%, 30%, and 64% from June to August, leading to only 9% of the average import level in August [2] Group 2 - The DRC's measures to control cobalt exports aim to boost prices and prevent low-cost outflows of strategic resources, while also enhancing the country's international influence [3] - The DRC is developing a quota system to manage supply, which is expected to systematically elevate the price center of cobalt and secure long-term strategic benefits for its resources [3] - Domestic demand for cobalt is expected to improve, potentially leading to continued inventory reduction and upward pressure on cobalt prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising prices of lithium and rare earth metals amid the "anti-involution" trend, highlighting the performance of rare metal ETFs, particularly the 嘉实中证稀有金属ETF (562800) [1][16]. Group 1: Market Performance - The technology sector, particularly communication and electronics, has seen significant gains, with ETFs like the communication ETF (159695) and the Sci-Tech Chip ETF (588200) both exceeding 50% year-to-date [3]. - The non-ferrous metals sector has also performed well, with an annual increase of 51.05% [4]. - The rare earth ETF 嘉实 (516150) and the rare metal ETF (562800) have recorded year-to-date increases of 64.2% and 51.9%, respectively [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, which is expected to enhance liquidity and stimulate demand in the downstream sectors [6]. - The "anti-involution" policy is addressing structural supply-side issues, particularly in industries like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries [8]. Group 3: Lithium Market Insights - Lithium carbonate prices have been on the rise, with futures prices increasing over 20% since July [8]. - The lithium sector's listed companies reported a 54% year-on-year increase in net profit, totaling 37.26 billion yuan in the first half of the year [10]. - Demand for lithium is projected to reach 1.386 million tons of LCE by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 20.4% [11]. Group 4: Rare Earth Market Insights - China holds over one-third of the global rare earth reserves and has a significant share of the global production and processing capacity [15]. - The rare earth prices have surged due to supply chain concerns and increased inventory accumulation by foreign manufacturers [15]. - Companies like 北方稀土 have reported substantial revenue growth, with a 45.2% increase in revenue and a 19-fold increase in net profit year-on-year [15]. Group 5: ETF Overview - The 嘉实中证稀有金属ETF (562800) strategically allocates 40% of its weight to small metals, including rare earths, and 20% to energy metals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt [22]. - The ETF has seen a significant increase in fund size, reaching 2.73 billion yuan, with a 119.7% increase in fund shares this year [27].

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) (03993) has seen a stock price increase of over 3%, currently trading at 12.85 HKD with a transaction volume of 574 million HKD, driven by strong resource assets and positive market outlook [1] Group 1: Company Assets and Resources - The company possesses globally scarce high-quality copper and cobalt mining assets, with significant resource reserves and development prospects [1] - The two core mining areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), TFM and KFM, have a combined copper resource of 34.44 million tons and cobalt resource of 5.4 million tons [1] - The acquisition of the Ecuador Cangrejos gold mine, with a gold resource of 638 tons, is expected to expand the company's resource portfolio and is projected to start production before 2029, with an annual gold output of 11.5 tons [1] Group 2: Market Outlook and Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley has issued a report indicating that Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price is expected to rise in the next 30 days, maintaining a buy rating with a target price of 11.7 HKD [1] - The DRC has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, with subsequent implementation of quotas, which could significantly impact global cobalt supply, as the DRC accounts for 70% of the world's cobalt supply [1] - If Luoyang Molybdenum receives a proportional quota, potential sales for Q4 2025 could be approximately 8,600 tons, and around 43,600 tons for 2026-2027 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) has shown strong performance, with significant gains in individual stocks such as Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold, driven by a surge in spot gold prices and supportive monetary policies [1][2] - The non-ferrous metal industry index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector, comprising 50 securities with notable scale and liquidity [1] - The recent increase in gold prices is attributed to central bank reserves and resilient employment in the U.S. economy, which may extend the current interest rate cut cycle, creating a favorable environment for gold investments [1] Group 2 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 50.35% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth [2] - The non-ferrous ETF fund closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index, providing investors with a means to invest in this specific sector [1][3]