[Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 [Table_Invest]买入|维持 东鹏饮料(605499)公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 05 日 [Table_Title] 持续逆势增长，补水啦继续放量 ——东鹏饮料 2024 年三季报点评 [Table_Summary] 事件 公司公告 2024 年三季报。24Q1-3，公司实现总营收 125.58 亿元，同比 +45.34%，归母净利 27.07 亿元，同比+63.53%，扣非归母净利 26.63 亿元， 同比+77.30%。24Q3，公司实现总营收 46.85 亿元，同比+47.29%，归母净利 9.77 亿元，同比+78.42%，扣非归母净利 9.56 亿元，同比+86.90%。 东鹏特饮稳固、补水啦持续放量，全国各区域快速增长 1）东鹏特饮优势稳固，补水啦及其他饮料快速增长。24Q1-3，东鹏特饮/东鹏 补水啦 / 其 他 饮 料 收 入 分 别 为 105.07/12.11/8.12 亿 元 ， 同 比 分 别 +31.43%/+292.11%/+145.43%。24Q3，东鹏特饮/东鹏补水啦/其他饮料收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [6][15]. Core Insights - The company's performance continues to exceed expectations, demonstrating strong momentum. The growth in new products, particularly "Brewed Water," is significant, and the multi-category development is promising. The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised, with expected revenues of 160 billion, 209 billion, and 272 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 42%, 31%, and 30% [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-3 of 2024, the company achieved revenues and net profits of 12.558 billion and 2.707 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 45.34% and 63.53%. In Q3 alone, revenues and net profits were 4.685 billion and 977 million yuan, with year-on-year increases of 47.29% and 78.42% [1]. - The gross margin improved significantly, with Q3 gross and net profit margins increasing by 4.29 and 3.64 percentage points to 45.81% and 20.85%, respectively. Sales expenses increased, reflecting a strategic investment in marketing [3]. - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 768 million yuan in Q3, a 7.36% increase year-on-year, with sales collections rising by 37.62% to 5.107 billion yuan [3]. Regional Performance - The company experienced steady growth in mature regions such as Guangdong, East China, and Guangxi, while other regions saw growth rates exceeding 50%. In Q3, revenues from various regions were as follows: Guangdong (1.312 billion), East China (644 million), and others, with significant growth in Central China, Southwest, and North China [2]. Channel Development - The company is focusing on high-quality development across all channels, with a notable increase in the number and quality of distributors. In Q3, the number of distributors rose by 213 to 2,993, with an average distributor scale increasing by 36.40% to 1.5597 million yuan [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 45.3% to 12.56 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 63.5% to 2.71 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [1][2] - The company is experiencing robust growth across product categories and regions, with significant contributions from new products and expanding distribution channels [2] - Profitability is improving due to a decrease in costs and expenses, with a gross margin of 45.1%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.68 billion yuan, a 47.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 980 million yuan, up 78.4% [1] - The first three quarters of 2024 saw a gross margin of 45.1%, a net profit margin of 21.6%, and a significant increase in net profit [3] Product and Regional Growth - Revenue from the main product, Dongpeng Energy Drink, reached 10.5 billion yuan, growing by 31.4%, while other beverages saw even higher growth rates [2] - The company’s revenue from the Guangdong region grew by 19.6%, while national and direct sales saw increases of 55.1% and 69.9%, respectively [2] Cost and Expense Management - The company maintained a sales expense ratio of 16.4%, while management and R&D expenses decreased, contributing to improved profitability [3] - The net profit margin increased by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [3] Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 3.12 billion yuan, 4.12 billion yuan, and 5.16 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 6.01 yuan, 7.92 yuan, and 9.93 yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 12.558 billion yuan, a 45.34% YoY increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 2.707 billion yuan, a 63.53% YoY increase [5] - The company's core product, Dongpeng Special Drink, continued to grow strongly, with Q3 revenue reaching 3.652 billion yuan, a 27.73% YoY increase [6] - The company's second growth curve, represented by the "Bushui La" product, accelerated, with Q3 revenue reaching 735 million yuan, a 299.58% YoY increase [6] - The company's national expansion strategy is progressing well, with Guangdong region revenue growing 30.47% YoY and national region revenue growing 51.78% YoY [6] - The company's profitability improved significantly in Q3, with gross margin reaching 45.81%, a 4.29% YoY increase, and net margin reaching 20.85%, a 3.64% YoY increase [7] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 16.081 billion yuan in 2024, 20.394 billion yuan in 2025, and 25.106 billion yuan in 2026, representing YoY growth rates of 42.78%, 26.82%, and 23.10% respectively [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow to 3.214 billion yuan in 2024, 4.196 billion yuan in 2025, and 5.252 billion yuan in 2026, representing YoY growth rates of 57.57%, 30.56%, and 25.17% respectively [7] - EPS is expected to grow to 6.18 yuan in 2024, 8.07 yuan in 2025, and 10.10 yuan in 2026 [4] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline to 34.60 in 2024, 26.50 in 2025, and 21.17 in 2026 [4] Operational Highlights - The company's sales channels are diversified, with distributor, direct sales, and online channels growing 43.65%, 53.54%, and 140.33% YoY respectively in Q3 [6] - The company's cost optimization and scale effects have contributed to improved profitability, with gross margin increasing due to lower costs of raw materials such as white sugar [7] - The company has increased advertising and freezer placements to enhance channel and brand building, leading to a slight increase in sales expense ratio [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue reaching 12.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.34%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.707 billion yuan, up 63.53% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company is transitioning towards a platform-based model, with strong growth in new product categories and a focus on digital system development to enhance product distribution and market penetration [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, total revenue was 12.558 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.707 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 2.663 billion yuan, reflecting increases of 45.34%, 63.53%, and 77.3% respectively [4][5]. - In Q3 2024 alone, total revenue was 4.685 billion yuan, with net profit reaching 977 million yuan, marking increases of 47.29% and 78.42% year-on-year [4][5]. Product and Market Analysis - Revenue from the main product, Dongpeng Special Drink, was 10.507 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, up 31.43% year-on-year, while the new product "Brew Water" saw a staggering increase of 292.11% to 1.211 billion yuan [4][5]. - Online sales channels generated 327 million yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 112.99% [4][5]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth varied by region, with Guangdong at 3.427 billion yuan (up 19.65%), East China at 1.802 billion yuan (up 49.88%), and North China at 1.503 billion yuan (up 83.54%) for Q1-Q3 2024 [4][5]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin improved by 3.64 percentage points to 20.85%, and the gross margin increased by 4.29 percentage points to 45.81% in Q3 2024 [5]. - The company is experiencing enhanced scale effects and cost reductions, contributing to improved profitability metrics [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.26 billion yuan and 4.26 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 6.27 yuan and 8.20 yuan [5].

2024年前三季度，东鹏饮料（605499.SH）的业绩延续了一贯的高光表现。 前三季度，公司实现营收125.58亿元，同比增长45.34%；实现归母净利润27.07亿元，同比高增 63.53%。 自10月29日发布三季报以来，东鹏饮料备受机构关注。 海通国际、招商证券等30家券商发布31份研报，看好东鹏饮料投资机会，给予"买入""增持"或者"强烈 推荐"的评级。 从机构对东鹏饮料前三季度的评价来看，对公司品牌、渠道、规模等核心竞争优势，以及深度全国化、 第二曲线加速放量的增长逻辑高度认可。 （CIS）校对：彭其华 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [2] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth momentum with a revenue increase of 45.3% year-on-year for Q1-Q3 2024, reaching 12.56 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 63.5% and 77.3% for the same period [6][10] - The company is expected to maintain high growth due to marketing investments, channel expansion, and a growing target customer base, with the electrolyte water product showing particularly strong sales [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.3%, and a net profit of 980 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 78.4% and 86.9% respectively [6][7] - The company's net profit margin improved by 3.64 percentage points year-on-year in Q3 2024, with a gross margin increase of 4.30 percentage points, primarily due to lower raw material costs [8] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 3.363 billion, 4.232 billion, and 5.043 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 6.47, 8.14, and 9.70 yuan [6][10] Market and Product Insights - The energy drink segment saw a revenue increase of 31.4% year-on-year, driven by a growing consumer base and effective marketing strategies [7] - The electrolyte water product has experienced a remarkable revenue growth of 292.1% year-on-year, maintaining a strong upward trend since Q2 2024 [7] - Regional performance in Q3 2024 showed significant growth across various markets, with East China and Southwest regions leading with increases of 76.7% and 51.8% respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue and profit growth in 2024 Q1-Q3, with revenue reaching 12.558 billion yuan (+45.34% YoY) and net profit attributable to parent company reaching 2.707 billion yuan (+63.53% YoY) [3] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 4.668 billion yuan (+47.29% YoY), with net profit attributable to parent company reaching 977 million yuan (+78.42% YoY) [3] - The company's second curve products, particularly "Dongpeng Bula," showed explosive growth, with Q1-Q3 revenue reaching 1.211 billion yuan (+292.11% YoY) and Q3 revenue accounting for 61% of the total [4] - The company is making significant progress in national expansion, with all regions outside Guangdong achieving over 40% YoY growth in Q3 2024 [4] Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margin improved to 45.05% in Q1-Q3 2024 (+2.53pct YoY) and 45.81% in Q3 2024 (+4.29pct YoY) [5] - Net profit margin increased to 21.56% in Q1-Q3 2024 (+2.40pct YoY) and 20.85% in Q3 2024 (+3.64pct YoY) [5] - The company's expense control improved, with sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios decreasing in Q1-Q3 2024 [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 16.18 billion yuan (+43.7% YoY) in 2024, 20.74 billion yuan (+28.1% YoY) in 2025, and 25.25 billion yuan (+21.8% YoY) in 2026 [6] - Net profit is forecasted to reach 3.24 billion yuan (+58.9% YoY) in 2024, 4.28 billion yuan (+32.1% YoY) in 2025, and 5.34 billion yuan (+24.7% YoY) in 2026 [6] - The company will continue to improve its national production and sales network, strengthen channel penetration, and actively develop other health-functional beverages [6] Market Performance - The company's stock showed strong performance with absolute gains of 12.38%, 22.07%, and 20.17% over 1M, 2M, and 3M respectively [2] - Relative gains were 7.32%, 4.92%, and 4.69% over the same periods [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 78.42% YoY, with further acceleration compared to Q2 2024 [2] - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached RMB 12.558 billion, a 45.34% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 2.707 billion, up 63.53% YoY [1][2] - The company's performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in core products and new product lines [2][5] Channel Performance - The company implemented a refined channel strategy, expanding nationwide sales channels, leading to growth in new products like the 500ml Gold Bottle and "Dongpeng Hydration" [2] - Revenue from Guangdong region, national region, and national direct sales for Q1-Q3 2024 were RMB 3.427 billion, RMB 7.329 billion, and RMB 1.774 billion, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 19.65%, 55.10%, and 69.87% [2] - The Southwest and North China regions showed particularly strong growth, with revenues of RMB 1.366 billion and RMB 1.503 billion, up 67.07% and 83.54% YoY, respectively [2] Product Performance - Core product Dongpeng Special Drink generated RMB 10.507 billion in revenue for Q1-Q3 2024, a 31.43% YoY increase [2] - Dongpeng Hydration revenue reached RMB 1.211 billion, up 292.11% YoY, accounting for 9.66% of total revenue [2] - Other beverage products grew by 145.43% YoY to RMB 812 million, contributing 6.48% to total revenue [2] Profitability and Cost Management - Gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 45.05%, up 2.53 percentage points YoY, driven by lower raw material costs [5] - The company effectively controlled expenses, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios decreasing to 16.42%, 2.44%, 0.40%, and -1.07%, respectively [5] - Net profit margin improved to 21.56%, up 2.40 percentage points YoY [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be RMB 16.418 billion, RMB 23.071 billion, and RMB 31.136 billion, with YoY growth rates of 45.77%, 40.52%, and 34.96%, respectively [3][5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 3.328 billion, RMB 4.438 billion, and RMB 5.907 billion for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [3][5] - EPS for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is expected to be RMB 6.40, RMB 8.53, and RMB 11.36, respectively [3][5] Strategic Development - The company is transitioning from a single-category focus to a multi-category comprehensive beverage group, with strategic synergies in electrolyte drinks, tea-based drinks, coffee-based drinks, and pre-mixed alcoholic beverages [5] - The company continues to strengthen its brand reputation through advertising and channel refinement, particularly in Guangdong, while expanding its national market presence [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 12.558 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 45.34%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.707 billion yuan, up 63.53% year-on-year [2][6] - The core product, Dongpeng Energy Drink, achieved revenue of 10.507 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year growth of 31.34% [3] - The company is transitioning from a single-category beverage company to a diversified beverage group, supported by a robust product matrix and strong growth in new product lines [3][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.685 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.29%, and a net profit of 977 million yuan, up 78.42% year-on-year [2][6] - The gross margin improved by 2.53 percentage points to 45.05%, while the net margin increased by 2.40 percentage points to 21.56% [5] Product Development - The company has successfully expanded its product offerings, with Dongpeng Water achieving revenue of 1.211 billion yuan, a staggering year-on-year growth of 292.11% [3] - Other beverage categories also saw significant growth, with revenue of 812 million yuan, up 145.43% year-on-year [3] Market Expansion - The company reported a total revenue of 7.329 billion yuan from national regions, a year-on-year increase of 55.10% [4] - The online and direct sales channels performed exceptionally well, with revenues of 327 million yuan and 1.447 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 112.99% and 62.43% [4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 16.077 billion yuan, 20.656 billion yuan, and 24.738 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 42.74%, 28.48%, and 19.76% respectively [6][8] - Net profit projections for the same period are 3.086 billion yuan, 4.117 billion yuan, and 5.085 billion yuan, with growth rates of 51.27%, 33.41%, and 23.54% respectively [6][8]