H200 最新情况以及国内 AI 芯片格局趋势推演 20251214 摘要 受政策影响，2026 年英伟达 H200 在中国出货量预计在 120 万至 200 万片之间，主要受国企和国资背景单位限制，民营互联网企业受限较小。 互联网行业采购量占国内 AI 芯片需求的 45%-50%，是需求趋势的关键 驱动因素。 2026 年国内 AI 芯片总需求预计 420 万片，国产芯片约占 300 万片。 若英伟达完全供货，将占据超过 55%的市场份额，挤压国产芯片约 120 万片市场空间。华为 920C、BN166 和木兮 500 核分等国产芯片在理 论算力上接近 H100 的 80%，但综合性能仍有差距。 除互联网外，运营商和智算中心等领域需求快速增长，占整体需求的 25%左右，预计未来三年在人工智能基础设施上的投入将高速增长，支 出占比可能超过 50%，主要原因是国内 AR 算力投入与国际水平相比仍 较低。 目前国内 AI 芯片性能大致达到 H200 的 60%，部分量产产品达 H100 的 80%。预计 2026 年将有七八家厂商推出计算能力达 600-800T 的产 品，性能基本对标甚至超越 H200，完全超越 ...

| 代码 | 简称 | 最新融资余额 | 融资余额环比增 | 最新融券余额 | 融券余额环比增 | 当日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (万元） | 减（%） | (万元） | 减（%） | （%） | | 688239 | 航宇 | 41076.10 | 63.50 | 84.34 | 19.85 | 19.85 | | | 科技 | | | | | | | 688119 | 中钢 | 12715.03 | 42.75 | 0.00 | | 2.23 | | | 洛耐 | | | | | | | 688361 | 中科 | 50896.57 | 26.81 | 2087.59 | 6.56 | 10.63 | | | 飞测 | | | | | | | 688682 | 霍莱 | 17086.10 | 25.49 | 0.00 | | 10.21 | | | 沃 | | | | | | | 688719 | 爱科 | 21901.57 | 22.12 | 0.00 | | 12.76 | | | 赛博 | | | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - During the period from December 8 to December 14, brokerages issued target prices for listed companies a total of 62 times, indicating a positive outlook for certain stocks based on recent closing prices [1] Group 1: Target Price Increases - The companies with the highest target price increases include Donghua Energy, Yongxi Electronics, and Farah Electronics, with target price increases of 83.73%, 52.36%, and 50.02% respectively [1] Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 153 listed companies received recommendations from brokerages during the same period, with Anjii Food and Northern Huachuang each receiving recommendations from 3 brokerages [1]

南方财经12月15日电，南财投研通数据显示，12月8日至12月14日，券商给予上市公司目标价共62次， 按最新收盘价计算，目标价涨幅排名居前的公司有东华能源、甬矽电子、法拉电子，目标价涨幅分别为 83.73%、52.36%、50.02%。从券商推荐家数来看，12月8日至12月14日有153家上市公司得到券商推 荐，其中安井食品、北方华创均获得3家券商推荐，海光信息、中油工程等均获得2家券商推荐。查看原 文：海光信息等153股获推荐，东华能源目标价涨幅超80%丨券商评级观察刚刚 ...

Group 1: Industry Changes - The computer industry in 2026 will witness a convergence of "industrial cycles" and "policy cycles," marking a decisive year for both existing tasks and new growth opportunities [2][3] - AI applications are expected to reach a critical point of explosion, transitioning from a phase of high expenditure to profitability, with significant scale deployment in vertical scenarios [11] - Domestic computing power has evolved from being a backup to becoming fully usable in training and inference for domestic large models, with 2026 anticipated to be a year of comprehensive replacement [12] - The completion of the "信创" (Xinchuang) initiative is set for 2027, making 2026 a peak year for bidding and delivery, with strong performance certainty for related companies [13] Group 2: Policy Changes - The "十四五" (14th Five-Year Plan) elevates commercial aerospace to a national strategic level, with 2026 expected to be a year of industry explosion driven by satellite networking and reusable rockets [6] - The low-altitude economy is transitioning from policy enthusiasm to industrial heat, with substantial construction expected in 2026 due to infrastructure standards and special bonds [6] - The integration of AI with various industries is emphasized in the "十四五" plan, aiming for deep integration in manufacturing, healthcare, transportation, and finance, which will enhance productivity and create greater economic value [20][36] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Companies in the AI application sector should be selected based on their alignment with national policies and the "AI+" initiative, focusing on sectors like agriculture, industrial software, and healthcare [36] - Companies with strong foundational platforms and aggregation entry points for large models are recommended for long-term investment, such as Alibaba and iFlytek [37] - Data barrier companies that possess proprietary data to train models are crucial, with a focus on firms like 海天瑞声 (Haitian Ruisheng) and 同花顺 (Tonghuashun) [38] - Companies that dominate high-frequency usage scenarios, such as 金山办公 (Kingsoft Office) and 东方财富 (Eastmoney), are positioned to benefit significantly from AI integration [40]

Core Viewpoint - A significant wave of merger and acquisition (M&A) terminations is occurring in the A-share market as the end of 2025 approaches, with at least 20 listed companies announcing the cessation of major asset restructuring plans within a month [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The terminated M&A activities involve prominent sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and information technology [1] - Notably, several semiconductor companies have recently halted their acquisition plans, indicating a trend within the industry [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Actions - Chipmaker Xinyuan Co. (688521.SH) announced on December 12 the termination of its acquisition of a 97.0070% stake in Xinlai Zhihong, citing discrepancies between the core demands of the target company's management and market conditions, policy requirements, and the interests of the company and its shareholders [1] - Haiguang Information (688041.SH) and Zhongke Shuguang (603019.SH) both announced on December 10 the termination of their absorption merger plan, stating that they could not reach an agreement on related transaction matters within the expected timeframe [1] - Other semiconductor firms, including SIRUI (688536.SH) and Diaomicro (688381.SH), have also recently declared the termination of their M&A restructuring efforts [1]

Core Viewpoint - A wave of merger and acquisition (M&A) terminations has emerged in the A-share market, particularly in the semiconductor sector, reflecting challenges in the current M&A environment due to macroeconomic changes and valuation discrepancies [2][3][5] Group 1: M&A Termination Overview - From November 13 to December 13, at least 20 listed companies announced the termination or suspension of significant asset restructuring plans, including notable firms in the semiconductor, pharmaceutical, chemical, and information technology sectors [2][3] - The semiconductor industry has been particularly affected, with companies like Chipone Technology (688521.SH) and Haiguang Information (688041.SH) announcing terminations of major acquisition plans, citing misalignment of core demands and market conditions [2][3][4] Group 2: Specific Cases and Impacts - Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang (603019.SH) announced the termination of a merger plan valued at approximately 100 billion, leading to a significant drop in Zhongke Shuguang's stock price [3][6] - Chipone Technology terminated its acquisition of 97.0070% equity in Chipwise Technology due to discrepancies between the management's core demands and market conditions [3][4] - Other semiconductor firms, such as Sierpo (688536.SH) and Diaowei (688381.SH), have also recently announced the termination of their M&A plans [2][4] Group 3: Reasons for Termination - The primary reasons for M&A terminations include failure to reach consensus on core terms, immature transaction conditions, and changes in the market environment [5][6] - Valuation discrepancies are a common issue, with buyers seeking conservative valuations while sellers prefer premium offers, leading to difficulties in negotiations [5][6] - The volatility in the A-share market has resulted in a "short-term pulse, long-term differentiation" effect on stock prices following M&A announcements, heavily influenced by the quality of the transactions and the realization of synergies [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant wave of merger and acquisition (M&A) terminations, particularly in the semiconductor sector, reflecting challenges in the current M&A environment due to macroeconomic changes and valuation disagreements [4][6]. Group 1: M&A Termination Overview - From November 13 to December 13, 2025, at least 20 listed companies announced the termination or suspension of major asset restructuring plans, with notable companies in the semiconductor, pharmaceutical, chemical, and information technology sectors [3][6]. - Semiconductor companies have been particularly affected, with significant terminations including the halted acquisition of 97.0070% of Chip Origin's shares by Chip Origin Co., which cited misalignment of core demands with market conditions [6][7]. Group 2: Reasons for Termination - The primary reasons for M&A terminations include failure to reach consensus on core terms, immature transaction conditions, and changes in the market environment [9][10]. - Valuation discrepancies are a common issue, with buyers seeking conservative valuations while sellers demand premiums, leading to difficulties in negotiations [10][11]. Group 3: Market Impact and Reactions - The termination of major deals has led to significant stock price movements, with companies like Huaguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang experiencing stock price drops following their termination announcements [6][10]. - The market has shown volatility, with stock prices of companies involved in M&A often fluctuating significantly before and after announcements, indicating a complex interplay between market conditions and M&A activities [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [18] Core Viewpoints - The launch of AutoGLM by Zhiyu is expected to accelerate the development of the AI Agent mobile ecosystem, providing a public foundation for the industry to collaboratively enhance AI capabilities [3][4] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need for innovation-driven growth and the urgent cultivation of new economic drivers, highlighting the importance of AI and technology innovation [7] - The competition in the global AI large model sector remains intense, which is likely to drive the widespread application of large models and sustain high demand in the AI computing market [14] Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - Zhiyu announced the open-source release of AutoGLM on December 9, which includes a trained core model, Phone Use capability framework, demo covering over 50 high-frequency Chinese apps, and documentation for quick onboarding [3][5] - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 highlighted the urgency of fostering new economic drivers, with specific tasks including enhancing education and technology talent development, establishing international technology innovation centers, and improving AI governance [7] Company Announcements - Boshi Software announced the acquisition of a 38% stake in Fujian Shucun Technology Development Co., Ltd. for a total price of 17.77 million yuan [8] - Haiguang Information announced the termination of a major asset restructuring plan due to unfavorable market conditions [8] - Zhiyuan Huitong elected a new chairman and appointed senior management [8] Weekly Market Review - The computer industry index fell by 1.14% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.08% [9] - The overall P/E ratio for the computer industry is 53.2 times, with 107 out of 360 A-share component stocks rising, 250 falling, and 2 suspended [11] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI computing stocks such as Haiguang Information, Industrial Fulian, and Inspur Information, and strongly recommends AI algorithm and application companies like Hengsheng Electronics and Zhongke Chuangda [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent wave of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the A-share market is facing significant challenges, leading to a notable increase in the number of terminated deals, particularly in the semiconductor sector [1][2]. Group 1: M&A Terminations - From November 13 to December 13, at least 20 listed companies announced the termination or suspension of major asset restructuring plans, with notable companies in the semiconductor, pharmaceutical, chemical, and information technology sectors involved [1]. - The semiconductor sector has emerged as a critical area for M&A terminations, with companies like Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang announcing the termination of a merger plan valued at approximately 100 billion [2]. - Chip manufacturers such as Chipone and Diaomicro have also recently announced the termination of their acquisition plans due to disagreements on key terms and market conditions [3][4]. Group 2: Reasons for Termination - The primary reasons for the termination of M&A deals include the inability of parties to reach consensus on core terms, the immaturity of transaction conditions, and changes in the market environment [4][5]. - A significant issue in these negotiations is the valuation disagreement, where buyers seek conservative valuations while sellers demand premiums, leading to a fundamental mismatch in expectations [5][6]. - Market volatility has exacerbated these challenges, with fluctuations in stock prices affecting the perceived value of deals, particularly in high-growth sectors like technology [6].