Core Viewpoint - The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Co., Ltd. has increased its stake in SMIC's H-shares from 4.79% to 9.25% as of December 29 [1] Company Summary - The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Co., Ltd. now holds a 9.25% stake in SMIC, indicating a significant increase in investment interest [1] - The previous holding was 4.79%, showing an increase of 4.46 percentage points [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rally on January 2, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.76% to close at 26,338.47 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 2.86%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index surging by 4% [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks saw collective gains, with Baidu rising by 9.35%, Tencent and Alibaba increasing by over 4%, and Kuaishou and JD.com gaining over 3% [3][5] - Semiconductor stocks also performed well, with Hua Hong Semiconductor up by 9.4% and SMIC increasing by over 5% [3][10] - Wind power equipment stocks surged, with Goldwind Technology rising nearly 21% [3] - The gaming sector saw broad increases, with NetEase, Zhongyou Game, and Qingci Game all rising over 6% [3][14] - Some sectors, including film, lottery, and dairy products, showed weakness [3] Notable Stocks - Hua Hong Semiconductor's stock price reached 81.30 HKD, up by 9.42% [6][11] - Baidu's stock price closed at 143.80 HKD, up by 9.35% [6][16] - Goldwind Technology's stock price increased to 16.22 HKD, up by 20.95% [9] - The stock of the newly listed company, Birun Technology, surged by 75.8% on its debut, reaching a market capitalization of nearly 81.3 billion HKD [10] Industry Developments - The aerospace and defense sector saw gains, with Dalu Aerospace Technology Holdings rising over 13% [8] - The electric power equipment sector experienced widespread increases, with several companies, including Shanghai Electric and Harbin Electric, also showing positive performance [9] - The tourism and travel sector was active, with Hong Kong Travel and Ctrip Group both rising over 5% [12][13] - The gaming sector remained vibrant, with multiple companies, including Feiyu Technology and NetEase, showing significant gains [14] Future Outlook - According to industry analysts, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its bullish trend in 2026, with a focus on growth and value reconstruction [20] - The net profit growth rate for Hong Kong Stock Connect constituent stocks is projected to reach 7.3% year-on-year, with sectors like information technology, discretionary consumption, and healthcare leading the growth [20]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.18%, reaching 26,189.79 points [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 3.38%, closing at 5,702.56 points [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 2.26%, ending at 9,115.17 points [1] - The market recorded a half-day trading volume of 76.869 billion HKD [1] Notable Stock Movements - Wallen Technology experienced a significant increase of over 72% [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor rose by 9.89% [1] - Baidu Group-SW saw a gain of 7.45% [1] - Sanhua Intelligent Control increased by 6.37% [1] - NetEase-S rose by 5.87% [1] - Li Auto-W gained 4.93% [1] - SMIC increased by 4.9% [1] - Trip.com Group-S rose by 4.33% [1] - Huatai Securities increased by 4.04% [1] Declining Stocks - Global New Material International fell by 8.99% [1] - 361 Degrees dropped by 10.89% [1] - Goldwind Technology increased by 17.15% [1] - Derin Holdings rose by 14.22% [1]

Group 1 - Semiconductor stocks in Hong Kong experienced a collective surge, with Huahong Semiconductor rising nearly 10% [1] - Chipone Technology increased by nearly 5% [1] - SMIC saw a rise of over 4% [1] - China Electronics Huada Technology and ASMPT both rose by over 3% [1]

Market Sector - The Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 35.92% in 2025, ranking third among various sector indices, outperforming both the Shanghai 50 and Shenzhen 50 indices [1][3] - By the end of 2025, the total market capitalization of the Sci-Tech Board reached 11.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.4 trillion yuan from 6.72 trillion yuan at the end of 2024, representing a growth rate of 65.38%, which is higher than other sectors [3] - The total trading volume of the Sci-Tech Board in 2025 was 37.79 trillion yuan, with an average trading volume per stock of 629.82 million yuan, which is lower than the average trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen main boards and the ChiNext [5][6] - The average daily turnover rate for the Sci-Tech Board in 2025 was 3.37%, higher than that of the Shanghai main board but lower than that of the Shenzhen main board and ChiNext [7] - At the end of 2025, the price-to-book ratio of the Sci-Tech Board was 5.61 times, higher than that of the ChiNext and the Shanghai and Shenzhen main boards [11] - By the end of 2025, the financing balance of the Sci-Tech Board reached 270.33 billion yuan, an increase of 125.03 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [13] - The securities lending balance of the Sci-Tech Board at the end of 2025 was 0.925 billion yuan, an increase of 0.0466 billion yuan from the beginning of the year [15] Individual Stocks - By the end of 2025, SMIC led with a market capitalization exceeding 600 billion yuan, followed by Cambrian (571.615 billion yuan) and Haiguang Information (521.605 billion yuan), with three companies including Moore Threads (276.33 billion yuan), BeiGene (263.457 billion yuan), and Muxi (232.098 billion yuan) surpassing 200 billion yuan [17] - Excluding the significant fluctuations on the first day of new stock listings, Weiqi New Materials had the highest increase of 1820.29% in 2025, followed by Shijia Photon (442.55%), Pinming Technology (428.78%), and Dongxin Co. (427.51%) [21] - By the end of 2025, Cambrian had the highest financing balance at 15.121 billion yuan, followed by SMIC (13.691 billion yuan), Haiguang Information (7.221 billion yuan), and Lanke Technology (6.197 billion yuan) [23] - Haiguang Information had the highest securities lending balance at 34.2342 million yuan, followed by Cambrian (31.6128 million yuan) and SMIC (28.4114 million yuan), with Guodun Quantum and Tuojing Technology exceeding 20 million yuan in securities lending [25] Issuance - By the end of 2025, there were 600 companies listed on the Sci-Tech Board, with 18 new stocks successfully issued in 2025, a 20% increase from 15 in 2024 [28] - The companies issued in 2025 were distributed across four Wind Sci-Tech thematic industries, with the new generation information technology industry leading with 10 companies, followed by the biotechnology industry with 5 companies, and new materials and high-end equipment manufacturing industries with 1 company each [30] - Among the companies issued in 2025, 10 met the first standard for listing, which requires positive net profits for the last two years and a cumulative net profit of no less than 50 million yuan, or positive net profit for the last year and operating income of no less than 100 million yuan, with an expected market value of no less than 1 billion yuan [33] - In terms of geographical distribution, Beijing led with 5 companies, followed by Jiangsu with 3, with North China (Beijing) and East China (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shanghai) accounting for over 70% [36] - The total IPO financing for Sci-Tech Board companies in 2025 was 37.844 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 187.83%, with 13 companies raising over 1 billion yuan, 4 companies raising between 500 million to 1 billion yuan, and 1 company raising under 500 million yuan [39] - In the IPO financing of 2025, Moore Threads led with 8 billion yuan, followed by Xi'an Yicai (4.636 billion yuan) and Muxi (4.197 billion yuan), with four companies raising over 2 billion yuan [43]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is expected to experience significant growth in 2026, driven by three key trends: storage, AI, and domestic production. A global supply-demand gap in storage is anticipated to persist, while AI-related capital expenditures and innovations in domestic chip design are set to rise sharply [4][5]. Group 1: Storage - The storage market saw a dramatic price increase in 2025, with major players forecasting that shortages will continue into 2026. Micron's Chief Business Officer highlighted a significant gap between supply and demand [6]. - TrendForce predicts that capital expenditures in the storage sector will rise, with DRAM spending increasing from $53.7 billion to $61.3 billion (14% YoY) and NAND spending from $21.1 billion to $22.2 billion (5% YoY) [6]. - Major PC manufacturers like Lenovo, HP, and Dell are planning to raise prices and adjust product specifications in response to rising storage costs, with Lenovo already notifying customers of upcoming price hikes [7]. Group 2: AI - The AI sector continues to thrive, with global cloud service providers expected to increase capital expenditures by 40% to $600 billion in 2026, driven by demand for AI applications [9]. - The shift from training to inference in AI models is anticipated to boost the demand for ASIC chips, with projections of over 800,000 units shipped in 2026 [9]. - Companies like Chipone have reported a significant increase in new orders, indicating strong demand for customized chip solutions [9]. Group 3: Domestic Production - The domestic semiconductor design sector is experiencing rapid growth, with the number of companies increasing from 1,380 in 2017 to 3,901 in 2025, and sales revenue growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% [12]. - The utilization rates of domestic foundries like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor have rebounded, benefiting from the rise of local chip design firms and a trend towards localized manufacturing [12]. - In the foundry segment, advanced logic production is expected to double, with significant expansions planned by companies like SMIC and Huahong [15].

科技为国而商，为需而兴——2025年中国商业科技的发展与2026年展望 崔传刚 新经济学家智库特约研究员 2025年，由中美主导的全球商业科技竞争，已经进入"近身博弈"的深化期，与此同时，中国科创力量在商业化赛道的强势崛起，正成为重塑全球产业格局 的关键变量。从人工智能大模型的规模化落地到人形机器人产业的场景渗透，从商业航天的规模化运营到"太空经济"的多元探索，以至于半导体芯片的自 主突破与光刻机的技术攻坚，中国的商业科技产业正在以一种"技术突破—场景验证—商业变现"的闭环发展模式，勾勒出前途远大的发展图景。 在这一年，中国的商业科技与实体经济持续深度融合，既加速推动了新质生产力的形成、夯实了中国的硬经济根基，更鲜明呈现出一种核心趋势：中国科 技商业化的进程不再仅局限于单纯经济价值的创造，而是已然与国家的战略需求形成高度协同。在一系列的关键领域，科技商业化和国家战略已形成 了"产业赋能国家、国家支撑产业"的良性互动态势，商业价值的创造与国家利益的增进正变得越发同步。 这一趋势，可以说是全球科技竞争逻辑演变的一种必然结果，同时也深受各国产业发展的客观差异影响。 来源：经济学家圈 从国际视野看，科技中立主义正日渐 ...

Group 1: Key Events - Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) Southern signed a new joint venture contract and capital increase agreement, raising its registered capital to $10.1 billion, with SMIC's shareholding increasing to 41.56% [1] - The capital increase involved five contributors, with a total cash contribution of $7.778 billion, enhancing SMIC Southern's net assets significantly [2] Group 2: Financial Implications - SMIC Southern's net assets are expected to double following the capital increase, with a current net asset value of 57.462 billion RMB [2] - The acquisition of a 49% stake in SMIC Northern will allow SMIC to fully own the subsidiary, enhancing its financial metrics, including net profit and net assets [3][4] - Post-acquisition, SMIC's net profit is projected to increase by 19.4%, and net assets are expected to rise by 13.6% [4] Group 3: Strategic Support - The participation of the National Integrated Circuit Fund III in the capital increase signals strong governmental support for domestic wafer foundry manufacturers [2] - The capital operations are expected to bolster SMIC's capacity expansion and long-term performance growth, particularly in the AI chip sector [5][6]

Group 1 - Southbound funds net bought Hong Kong stocks worth 3.449 billion HKD today [1] - The top net purchases included China Merchants Bank at 724 million HKD, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China at 589 million HKD, and China Construction Bank at 562 million HKD [1] - Notable net sales included Zijin Mining at 682 million HKD, Tencent Holdings at 646 million HKD, and China Ping An at 298 million HKD [1] Group 2 - Southbound funds have recorded a continuous net sell of Tencent for five consecutive days, totaling 3.94334 billion HKD [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a steady upward trend in 2025, driven by policy support, ample liquidity, and positive industry trends, marking a new phase of quality and quantity improvement in the capital market [1] Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, the total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time, indicating a significant milestone [1] - The number of companies with a market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion yuan increased to 13, with notable entries from the technology sector [4][5] - The market structure has shown a shift, with traditional industries like finance and energy maintaining strong positions while technology companies are rapidly climbing the ranks [2][6] Group 2: Technology Sector Impact - Technology companies, particularly in AI and semiconductors, have been the main drivers of market growth, with Industrial Fulian's market cap nearly tripling and surpassing 1 trillion yuan [4] - Semiconductor company SMIC also crossed the 1 trillion yuan mark, although it recently fell below this threshold [4] - The rise of technology stocks has been characterized by high R&D investment and policy support, with new entrants in the market demonstrating significant valuation elasticity [8] Group 3: New Entrants and Market Dynamics - The number of companies with a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion yuan increased from 137 to 178, reflecting a robust expansion in this segment [7] - New companies, such as Moer Technology and Muxi Co., have made headlines with substantial first-day gains, indicating strong market interest in tech innovations [8] - However, five companies, including Yanghe Brewery and Poly Developments, saw their market caps drop below 100 billion yuan, primarily due to declining industry conditions and poor financial performance [9]