国际摩擦再起，如何看待国产替代的投资机会 20251012 摘要 中国在贸易摩擦中采取更主动姿态，通过先出牌后退让的策略，旨在促 成双方都能接受的结果，增强国际谈判话语权，并为国内市场带来稳定 因素，投资者应关注其中蕴含的投资机会。 科技板块分化明显，消费类科技受情绪冲击可能回调，但回调即是介入 机会，如立讯精密案例；国产替代是长期机遇，尤其在半导体先进制程 和封装技术等领域，国产替代率提升迅速。 半导体产业链国产替代取得显著进展，部分设备品类国产替代率已超 50%，但光刻机等高端设备仍有差距。长存和长鑫的存储器扩产项目顺 利推进，预计将持续至明年上半年。 当前形势下，可逢低布局受情绪冲击的消费类科技和具有长期发展潜力 的国产替代领域，如半导体、信创等。中美科技博弈长期存在，这些领 域具备长期投资价值。 中美博弈促使订单回流国内晶圆厂，稼动率全球领先。成熟制程扩产问 题得到解决，28 纳米到 14 纳米扩产比例逐步提升，中芯国际和华为等 企业产能储备不断增加。 Q&A 当前中美贸易摩擦对市场的影响如何？与 4 月份相比有哪些不同？ 当前中美贸易摩擦对市场确实带来了一定的担忧，导致包括美股和 A 股在内的 多个 ...

Market Performance - A-shares showed mixed performance in the first two trading days after the National Day holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3897.03 points, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.26% and 3.86% respectively [2][3] - Over 54% of stocks rose during the week, with 47 stocks gaining over 15% and 14 stocks dropping more than 15% [2] International Market Trends - Major U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines on October 10, with the Dow Jones down 878.82 points (1.90%), the S&P 500 down 182.60 points (2.71%), and the Nasdaq down 820.20 points (3.56%) [3][5] - European stock indices also fell, with the FTSE 100 down 81.93 points (0.86%), the CAC 40 down 123.36 points (1.53%), and the DAX down 369.79 points (1.50%) [4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw a notable decline, with WTI crude oil falling by $2.61 to $58.90 per barrel (down 4.24%) and Brent crude down $2.49 to $62.73 per barrel (down 3.82%) [4] Regulatory Developments - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to the U.S. announcement of a 100% tariff on certain Chinese exports, emphasizing that China's export control measures are a normal legal action to safeguard national security [6] - The Chinese government criticized the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and excessive use of export controls, which it claims harm legitimate business interests and disrupt international trade [6] Industry Insights - The Shanghai government announced measures to accelerate the development of industries such as silicon photonics, 6G, fourth-generation semiconductors, and brain-like intelligence [9] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reported that the approved loan amount for white list projects has exceeded 7 trillion yuan, supporting the construction and delivery of commercial housing projects [10] Trust Industry Updates - Trust companies have been instructed to investigate their reverse repurchase leverage ratios and ensure compliance with regulatory limits [11] Service-Oriented Manufacturing - A new implementation plan aims to enhance the role of service-oriented manufacturing in high-quality development by 2028, focusing on key tasks such as technology innovation and standard system construction [12][13] Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the market will continue its upward trend, supported by stable inflows of capital and expected earnings growth in the third quarter [18]

1、本周大事提醒：甲骨文AI World大会来袭，寒武纪、阿斯麦将发财报； 2、上周五美股大跌！纳指、道指均跌逾800点，特斯拉跌超5%，中概指数暴跌6.1%； 3、美国原油期货收跌超4.2%，报58.90美元/桶； 4、比特币一度狂泻近14% 失守11万美元大关； 5、加密货币全网爆仓191亿美元，再次刷新历史记录； 6、法庭文件显示美政府计划裁员逾4000人； 7、特朗普威胁对中国实施波音零部件出口管制； 8、美USTR计划对部分起重机征收100%关税 对龙门起重机等征收最高150%额外关税； 9、韩股收盘再创历史新高，年内累涨50.47%； 大中华区要闻： 17、公告精选︱全志科技：预计前三季度净利润同比增长72.2%—92.06%；北方稀土：前三季度净利润 预增272.54%到287.34%； 格隆汇10月13日｜国际要闻： 1、中国对美船舶收取船舶特别港务费； 2、中方回应美威胁对华加征关税：如美一意孤行中方必采取相应措施； 3、高通涉嫌违反反垄断法 市场监管总局依法决定立案调查； 4、上海正推动中国聚变能源有限公司在沪成立； 5、上海市印发《关于加快推动前沿技术创新与未来产业培育的若干措施》； 6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of margin trading collateral and conversion rates by Shenwan Hongyuan Securities and Western Securities reflects a dynamic risk control strategy in response to the high valuations and losses of certain companies, particularly focusing on the stocks of SMIC and Bawei Storage [1][2]. Group 1: Margin Trading Adjustments - On October 10, Shenwan Hongyuan Securities and Western Securities announced adjustments to the margin trading collateral and conversion rates, effective from October 13 [1]. - The conversion rates for SMIC and Haiguang Information were raised from zero to 70%, while several other companies saw their rates adjusted to between 30% and 65% [1]. - Conversely, the conversion rates for Tongyu Heavy Industry and Chuangyitong were reduced from 65% to zero, indicating a mixed trend in adjustments [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Valuation Changes - Following the adjustments, stocks such as SMIC and Bawei Storage experienced significant declines, with SMIC's static P/E ratio exceeding 300, leading to its conversion rate being set to zero [1][2]. - As of October 10, the static P/E ratios for SMIC, Bawei Storage, and XianDao Intelligent were reported at 276.75, 279.33, and 299.93, respectively, allowing for the re-establishment of their conversion rates to 70% and 65% [2]. - The adjustments in conversion rates are seen as a reflection of brokerage firms' risk management practices, particularly for high-valuation and loss-making companies [2]. Group 3: Implications for Investors - The zero conversion rate indicates that while investors can still finance with sufficient margin, the stock cannot be used as collateral, impacting the available margin for further financing [2]. - For example, a stock with a market value of 1 million yuan that previously had a 70% conversion rate would provide 700,000 yuan in available margin, which would be lost if the conversion rate is set to zero [2].

Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The U.S. announced a 100% tariff on Chinese exports related to rare earths and key software, prompting a response from China's Ministry of Commerce, which emphasized that high tariffs are not the correct approach for bilateral relations [1] - China reiterated its unwillingness to engage in a trade war but stated it would take necessary measures to protect its legitimate rights if the U.S. persists in its actions [1] Group 2: Shipping and Port Fees - The Ministry of Transport of China announced that starting from October 14, 2025, special port fees will be charged for U.S.-owned or operated vessels, including those with significant U.S. ownership [2] Group 3: Market Regulation and Antitrust - Qualcomm is under investigation by China's State Administration for Market Regulation for allegedly violating the Anti-Monopoly Law, particularly concerning its acquisition of Autotalks without proper notification [3] - The investigation follows Qualcomm's failure to comply with notification requirements after being advised to do so, leading to a formal inquiry into its business practices [3] Group 4: Industry Responses to U.S. Measures - China's Ministry of Commerce announced countermeasures against U.S. restrictions on the shipbuilding industry, framing these actions as necessary for maintaining fair competition in international shipping and shipbuilding markets [4] Group 5: Infrastructure and Technology Development - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with six other departments, issued a plan to enhance new information infrastructure and promote the integration of computing power with industry applications from 2025 to 2028 [5] Group 6: Financial Adjustments in the Market - The margin financing and securities lending rates for SMIC and Beken Technology have been adjusted back to 70% and 50%, respectively, after previously being set to zero due to high static P/E ratios [6] - Wentech Technology announced that its control over Anshi Semiconductor is temporarily limited due to a ministerial order from the Dutch government, affecting operational efficiency but not economic rights [7] Group 7: Shareholder Actions - China Unicom plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 1.20% through various trading methods, aiming to optimize its capital structure while maintaining a positive outlook on the company's future [8] - CATL has repurchased 15.99 million shares for a total of RMB 4.386 billion, representing 0.3629% of its total A-share capital [9] Group 8: Commodity Pricing - Northern Rare Earth announced that the trading price for rare earth concentrate for Q4 2025 will be adjusted to RMB 26,205 per ton, reflecting a 37.13% increase from the previous quarter [10]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - China strengthens its rare earth export controls, limiting exports to military users and entities on a control list, which significantly impacts the U.S. semiconductor industry as China accounts for nearly 70% of global rare earth production [15][20][21] - The world's first two-dimensional-silicon hybrid flash memory chip has been developed, outperforming current flash technologies and providing faster, lower-energy data support for AI and big data applications [16][22][26] - Upcoming semiconductor industry conferences aim to explore new development paths for China's semiconductor sector, focusing on advanced packaging and wafer manufacturing, which are crucial for enhancing global competitiveness [17][42][60] Summary by Sections Section 1: Rare Earth Security - China has implemented stricter export controls on rare earth materials, particularly for military applications, which could hinder U.S. semiconductor capabilities [15][20][21] - Rare earths are essential for semiconductor manufacturing, impacting various components and processes across the industry [21] Section 2: Hybrid Flash Memory Chip - The new hybrid chip integrates two-dimensional ultra-fast memory with mature silicon-based CMOS technology, marking a significant technological breakthrough [16][22][26] - This innovation positions China at the forefront of next-generation storage technology, crucial for AI and big data [22][41] Section 3: Semiconductor Industry Conferences - The 2025 Bay Area Semiconductor Industry Expo will gather industry leaders to discuss future directions and innovations [17][42] - The Third Generation Semiconductor Industry Cooperation Conference will focus on collaborative development and technological advancements in the semiconductor field [55][56] - The 2025 China Semiconductor Advanced Packaging Conference will address the integration of wafer manufacturing and advanced packaging technologies [60][61] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Beneficial stocks in the semiconductor sector include North China Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, SMIC, and Huahong Semiconductor [18] - In the chip sector, recommended companies are Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and Longxin Zhongke [18]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in October, driven by stable inflows of external funds and anticipated rebounds in earnings growth across various industries due to low base effects from the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Expectations - The market is likely to continue the trend observed in September, with a low-slope upward movement [1]. - October marks the window for Q3 earnings reports, which are expected to show a rebound in profitability for most industries, enhancing market confidence [1]. - Major sectors of focus include new energy, non-ferrous metals, and electronics, which have seen increased attention [1][6]. Group 2: Sector Focus and Recommendations - Key areas of interest include AI computing, semiconductor self-sufficiency, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, and controllable nuclear fusion, alongside the "anti-involution" theme which may see policy support [2]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is favored due to ongoing industry trends and potential catalysts such as the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle [3]. Group 3: Broker Recommendations - As of October 10, 2025, 40 brokers have disclosed their top stock picks, involving 267 A-share companies, with many stocks being recommended by multiple brokers [3][4]. - The electronics sector leads with 61 companies included in the October broker picks, marking its 20th consecutive month as the most recommended sector [6][7]. - Other sectors with significant representation include power equipment, non-ferrous metals, automotive, machinery, and biomedicine, each with over 20 companies recommended [6][7]. Group 4: Notable Stocks and Performance - 24 stocks have been jointly recommended by three or more brokers, with notable mentions including Luxshare Precision, Keqing Network, and Zhaoyi Innovation, each recommended by six brokers [9]. - Zhaoyi Innovation, a leader in storage chips, has seen substantial institutional interest, with public funds holding nearly 27 billion yuan and northbound funds over 5.1 billion yuan [9]. - The stock of Zijin Mining, a leading non-ferrous metal company, has gained over 99% in the first three quarters of 2025, attracting significant attention from brokers [16]. Group 5: Industry Distribution of Recommended Stocks - The distribution of recommended stocks shows a notable increase in the number of picks from the power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors compared to the previous month, with increases of 17, 11, and 9 stocks respectively [6][7]. - Conversely, sectors such as non-bank financials, food and beverage, and telecommunications saw a decrease in recommended stocks, with non-bank financials dropping by 13 stocks [6][7].

芯片小韭菜 . 以下文章来源于芯片小韭菜 ，作者芯片小韭菜 专注芯片行业及公司基本面研究，不提供操作建议。 先回顾一下4月的情况，我们在长假期间，特朗普宣布对全球的对等关税，我们宣布反制，然后长假后 第一个交易日（4月7号），我们大跌。之后双方继续互相加关税，但市场已经没有反应了，4月8号在底 部震荡，4月9号直接拉起，之后一路向上。 再看板块，4月7号是普跌。 半导体板块，4月8号企稳，9号拉出大阳线。 达链果链，8号继续大跌，9号大跌以后V起来。 红利消费等：8号大涨，9号震荡。 可以说，当时关税战初期，很多资金跑去红利避险，之后则是大力资金冲进了半导体，自主可控走得最 好，当周就实现了反包。 再详细回顾一下当时的半导体各分支。 当时因为反制加税，市场的龙头板块是模拟芯片。它们有些甚至4月7号就已经低开高走收红。龙头是纳 芯微。 再看自主可控的分支，代工，中芯国际7号中等跌幅，8号小涨，9号直接大阳线反包。设备，北方华创7 号，8号小跌，9号直接大阳线反包。算力，寒武纪7号大跌，8号企稳，9号大阳线差一点反包。EDA， 华大九天，7号小跌，8号9号连续大涨。 针对很多人对过去的学习，个人认为这次的最大跌幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of margin financing rates to zero for SMIC and BAWI Storage has significant implications for investors, cutting off leverage and potentially leading to increased volatility in stock prices [1][3][5]. Group 1: Impact on Stocks - SMIC's static P/E ratio reached 303, while BAWI Storage's was 301, triggering the margin financing rate adjustment as per the rules set by the exchanges [3]. - Following the announcement, SMIC's stock experienced a volatility of over 11%, with a trading volume exceeding 24.2 billion yuan [3]. - A total of 203 stocks were affected by this adjustment, predominantly in the technology sector due to high valuations [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The adjustment directly severed the "leverage supply" for high-valuation stocks, which previously had margin rates between 30% to 100% [5]. - The financing balance for SMIC surged from 7.5 billion yuan to 15 billion yuan within two months, indicating a significant influx of leveraged funds that may now face withdrawal [5]. - The semiconductor sector faced a broader sell-off, with leading companies like CATL experiencing significant declines [7]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on various materials, including rare earths and lithium batteries, effective November 8, indicating a strategic shift from raw material exports to finished product exports [5]. - The retail sector showed signs of growth, with a reported 7.9% year-on-year increase in social retail sales, although consumer spending patterns are shifting towards more experiential purchases [7]. - The overall market sentiment was affected by external factors, including foreign capital withdrawal and tightening global liquidity, leading to a significant drop in major indices [9].

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the margin financing ratio for SMIC from 0% to 70% indicates a significant shift in the market's perception of the company's valuation and risk, allowing investors to leverage their positions again [1][3]. Group 1: Margin Financing Ratio Adjustment - SMIC's margin financing ratio was previously set at 0%, meaning its shares could not be used as collateral for financing [3]. - The new ratio of 70% means that a market value of 1 million yuan in SMIC shares can now support 700,000 yuan in margin financing, effectively reopening leverage for optimistic investors [3]. - This adjustment follows a recent drop in SMIC's static P/E ratio from over 300 times to around 200 times, allowing it to meet the criteria for the margin ratio increase [3]. Group 2: Market Confidence and Valuation - The change in margin financing ratios reflects a decrease in perceived risk for key technology stocks, indicating renewed confidence from brokers [4]. - The adjustment is not uniform; while SMIC and Haiguang Information were raised to 70%, other stocks like Tongyu Heavy Industry and Chuangyitong were reduced to 0%, showing a selective approach based on individual stock valuations and risks [3]. - The ability of stocks like SMIC to regain leverage support suggests that the market recognizes their long-term value, especially after a period of high valuation [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Implications - For medium to long-term investors, the adjustment signals a focus on stocks with reasonable valuations and strong fundamentals, rather than short-term price movements [4]. - The margin ratio change serves as a directional indicator for identifying technology stocks that are both reasonably valued and capable of maintaining performance in line with their valuations [4].