Group 1 - The global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, has announced a restart and production resumption plan, with expected continuous growth in output [1] - Grasberg's copper production is projected to remain at 1 billion pounds (approximately 454,000 tons) in 2026, with an average annual output potentially reaching 1.6 billion pounds (approximately 726,000 tons) from 2027 to 2029 [1] - If Grasberg successfully follows the restart schedule, it could contribute an incremental copper output of approximately 70,000 tons in 2026 and 2027, potentially increasing global copper mine production growth rate to about 3.3% in 2026 [1] Group 2 - Other copper mines, such as Cobre Panamá, are also expected to resume production, with a peak annual capacity of 300,000 to 350,000 tons of copper, accounting for about 1.5% of global copper supply [2] - The Panamanian government is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum regarding the restart of Cobre Panamá, with talks expected to begin by the end of 2025 or early 2026 [2] - The gradual removal of mid-term mining disruptions is anticipated to significantly contribute to the incremental supply from mines like Grasberg and Cobre Panamá, alleviating the tight supply situation in the copper market [2] Group 3 - The growth rate of copper smelting production in 2026-2027 is expected to be lower than that of the copper mine supply side, with copper mine production growth rates projected to reach 3.3% and 5.3% year-on-year [3] - Many overseas smelting plants are reducing capacity due to tight copper concentrate supply and high costs, while domestic copper smelting policies are expected to lead to a lower growth rate in smelting production compared to the supply side [3] - There is potential for marginal improvement in copper smelting fees, indicating investment opportunities in mid-term copper smelting enterprises [3] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include focusing on Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group, one of the largest copper smelting companies in China, which has expectations for increased self-sufficiency in copper concentrate due to the Mirador copper mine [4] - Other recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, which has significant resource reserves and expectations for continued copper mine expansion [4] - Additional stocks to consider are Jiangxi Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum, which have not been rated yet [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The Grasberg copper mine has announced a resumption plan, with expectations for mid-term copper smelting fees to have upward potential [2] - The global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, is expected to resume large-scale production by Q2 2026, maintaining a copper output of 1 billion pounds (approximately 454,000 tons) in 2026, with an average annual output potentially reaching 1.6 billion pounds (approximately 726,000 tons) from 2027 to 2029 [7] - The resumption of multiple copper mines is anticipated to alleviate supply tensions, with the Cobre Panamá mine also expected to restart production, contributing an additional 300,000 to 350,000 tons of copper metal annually [7] - The growth rate of copper smelting output from 2026 to 2027 is expected to be lower than that of copper supply, indicating potential marginal improvement in smelting fees [7] - Investment opportunities are suggested in major copper smelting companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630, Buy) and Zijin Mining (601899, Buy), with other notable mentions including Jiangxi Copper (600362, Not Rated) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993, Not Rated) [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on the non-ferrous and steel industries, highlighting the dynamics and trends affecting these sectors [1] Copper Mining Sector - Grasberg's production is expected to stabilize and grow, contributing to a projected copper production growth rate of approximately 3.3% in 2026 [7] - The reopening of Cobre Panamá is also a significant factor in easing supply constraints [7] Copper Smelting Sector - The anticipated growth in copper smelting output is expected to lag behind the supply side, suggesting a favorable outlook for smelting fees [7] - Investment recommendations are made for companies with strong resource bases and production expansion potential [7]

Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals is one of the largest cathode copper producers in China, with smelting capacity exceeding 1.7 million tons, and has gradually become a comprehensive copper company covering the entire industry chain from "resources to smelting to processing" [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company generates significant revenue and gross profit from copper products, but since 2024, tightening copper ore supply has led to a decline in copper smelting fees, resulting in a slight decrease in copper product gross margins [1] - There are concerns in the market regarding whether the company's large copper smelting capacity will be affected by the continued decline in smelting fees, potentially squeezing profit margins [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The upward certainty of copper prices has increased, and there are marginally positive expectations for smelting fees, which may enhance profit elasticity [1] - The company is targeting the high-end copper processing market, with its subsidiary, Tongguan Copper Foil, having been listed separately in 2022, indicating potential for greater application markets for high-end electronic copper foil products amid rapid development in AI and electronic communication industries [1] Group 3: Additional Profit Sources - The gold and other by-product segments are expected to continue contributing to the company's profits [1] - The initial coverage has assigned a "buy" rating for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals is one of the largest cathode copper producers in China, with smelting capacity exceeding 1.7 million tons, and has gradually become a comprehensive copper company covering the entire industry chain from "resources to smelting to processing" [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company generates significant revenue and gross profit from copper products, but since 2024, tightening copper ore supply has led to a decline in copper smelting fees, resulting in a slight decrease in copper product gross margin [1] - There are concerns regarding whether the company's large copper smelting capacity will be impacted by the continued decline in smelting fees, potentially squeezing profit margins [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The upward certainty of copper prices is increasing, and there are marginally positive expectations for smelting fees, which may enhance profit elasticity [1] - The company is targeting the high-end copper processing market, with its subsidiary, Tongguan Copper Foil, having been listed separately in 2022, and high-end electronic copper foil products are expected to see greater application markets amid the rapid development of AI and electronic communication industries [1] Group 3: Additional Profit Sources - The gold and other by-product segments are expected to continue contributing to the company's profits [1] - The initial coverage gives the company a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a mixed outlook for the metals industry, with price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic factors, supply disruptions, and changing monetary policies, particularly regarding interest rates [2][4][6]. Group 1: Lithium Prices - In the first three quarters of 2025, the average price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5% purity) and lithium hydroxide (56.5% purity) was 71,339.89 CNY/ton and 67,844.81 CNY/ton, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 25.17% and 21.47% compared to the same period in 2024 [1][5]. - The price decline for lithium products has slowed in the first half of 2025, with a rebound observed in the third quarter, suggesting a potential turning point [5]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metal prices have been supported by expectations of interest rate cuts, with gold prices experiencing a significant upward trend in the third quarter of 2025 [3][6]. - The overall labor market remains balanced despite a decline in non-farm employment, indicating potential economic weakness and rising inflation concerns, which further support precious metal prices [3]. Group 3: Industrial Metals - The third quarter of 2025 saw increased expectations for interest rate cuts, which provided support for industrial metal prices, particularly copper, amid supply disruptions from incidents like the Grasberg copper mine accident in Indonesia [4][6]. - The average price of LME copper in the first three quarters was 9,561.07 USD/ton, up 4.71% from 9,131.16 USD/ton in the same period of 2024, while LME aluminum prices rose by 8.44% [4]. Group 4: Energy Metals - The energy metals sector appears to have reached a bottom, with signs of a potential rebound following price declines in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The average price of cobalt in the first three quarters was 226,241.76 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.78%, driven by a significant rebound in September [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite uncertainties regarding interest rate cuts in December, the medium-term outlook for macroeconomic easing is strong, which will support non-ferrous metal prices [6]. - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Hailiang Co., Cangge Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, and Huayou Cobalt [6].

Group 1 - The board meeting of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. was held on November 20, 2025, in Tongling City, Anhui Province, with a combination of on-site and remote voting [2] - The meeting was attended by 6 directors, with 3 present on-site and 3 independent directors voting via communication [2] - The meeting was chaired by Chairman Ding Shiqi and was compliant with the Company Law and the Articles of Association, making the resolutions legal and effective [2] Group 2 - The board approved the proposal to change the members of the specialized committees to enhance operational efficiency [3] - The board also approved the proposal to formulate and revise several management systems, including the External Investment Management Measures and the External Guarantee Management System [4] - These revised management systems will be disclosed on the company's official information platform [4] Group 3 - The board decided to hold the third extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on December 29, 2025, at 14:30, using a combination of on-site and online voting [7] - The resolution for the shareholder meeting was also passed with unanimous support [9] Group 4 - The minutes of the board meeting will be kept on record for future reference [10] - The announcement was made by Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. on November 21, 2025 [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals is a leading copper smelting enterprise in China, covering the entire industry chain from resource extraction to smelting and processing. The company is the largest producer of cathode copper in the country, with smelting capacity exceeding 1.7 million tons. However, since 2024, tightening copper ore supply has led to a decline in copper smelting fees, resulting in a slight decrease in the company's copper product profit margins. There are concerns about whether the company's substantial smelting capacity will be impacted by the continued decline in smelting fees, which could squeeze profit margins [1]. Copper Products Sector - From an industry perspective, the growth rate of electrolytic copper production in 2026-2027 may be lower than that of copper ore supply, indicating potential upward improvement in smelting fees. Demand from emerging sectors such as renewable energy and AI data centers is expected to drive an increase in copper demand. However, due to ongoing disruptions at the mining level and a slowdown in the expansion of midstream smelting capacity, the global copper supply-demand surplus may decrease, supporting an upward trend in copper prices in the medium term [2]. - On the company level, the expansion of the Mirador copper mine is expected to enhance the company's copper concentrate self-sufficiency and reduce production costs. The integrated project for green intelligent copper-based new materials is anticipated to expand the company's smelting capacity. With expectations of improving industry smelting fees and rising copper prices, the increase in resource self-sufficiency is likely to enhance profit elasticity in the smelting segment [2]. - The company is also focusing on high-end copper processing and precious metal resources, which are expected to drive profitability. The subsidiary Tongguan Copper Foil was listed separately in 2022, and the demand for high-end electronic copper foil products is anticipated to grow in the context of rapid development in AI and electronic communication industries. Additionally, the precious metals segment, including gold, is expected to continue contributing to the company's profits, with rising prices anticipated due to deteriorating dollar credit conditions. The expansion of the Mirador copper mine is expected to increase gold production, potentially leading to a rise in both volume and price in the gold segment [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to have EPS of 0.27, 0.38, and 0.43 yuan for the years 2025-2027. Based on a comparable company's 2026 PE of 16X, a target price of 6.08 yuan is set for the company. Therefore, the initial coverage recommends a buy rating for the company [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the copper industry is expected to see a tightening supply-demand balance, with copper prices likely to rise due to increased demand from emerging sectors such as renewable energy and AI data centers. The company's expansion projects are anticipated to enhance its profitability and resource self-sufficiency [4][12][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd., is one of the largest cathode copper producers in China, with a smelting capacity exceeding 1.7 million tons. It has developed a comprehensive copper industry chain covering resource exploration, smelting, and processing [20][21]. Copper Product Segment - The report indicates that the copper price is expected to rise, and there is a marginally positive outlook for smelting fees, which could enhance profit elasticity. The company is set to benefit from the expected increase in copper prices and improved smelting fees due to supply constraints [4][12][10]. - The Mirador copper mine expansion is projected to increase the company's copper concentrate self-sufficiency and reduce production costs, while the completion of the green intelligent copper-based new materials industrial park is expected to expand smelting capacity [4][12]. Other Segments - The company is focusing on high-end copper processing and precious metal resources, which are expected to drive profitability. The subsidiary, Tongguan Copper Foil, has been listed separately and is positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in the AI and electronic communication sectors [4][12]. - The precious metals segment, particularly gold, is expected to see a rise in both volume and price, supported by deteriorating dollar credit conditions [4][12]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 0.27, 0.38, and 0.43 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027. Based on a comparable company PE of 16X for 2026, a target price of 6.08 yuan is set [5][7].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. held its 27th meeting of the 10th Board of Directors on November 20, 2025, to review proposals regarding the formulation and revision of certain management systems [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue composition shows that non-trade income accounted for 99.18%, while trade income made up only 0.82% [1] - As of the time of reporting, the market capitalization of Tongling Nonferrous Metals is 68.4 billion yuan [1]

铜陵有色金属集团股份有限公司 关联交易管理制度 第一章 总则 第一条 为规范铜陵有色金属集团股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")的 关联交易，保证公司关联交易符合公平、公正、公开的原则，维护公司及公 司股东的合法权益，根据《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简称"《公司法》"）、 《中华人民共和国证券法》（以下简称"《证券法》"）、《深圳证券交易 所股票上市规则》、《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号——主 板上市公司规范运作》和《铜陵有色金属集团股份有限公司章程》（以下简 称"《公司章程》"）的有关规定，制定本制度。 第三条 关联交易活动应遵循公正、公平、公开的原则。 第四条 本制度适用于公司、公司控股子公司。 第二章 关联人和关联关系 第二条 本制度所称关联交易，是指公司或公司全资子公司、控股子公 司（以下合称"控股子公司"）与公司关联人之间发生的转移资源或义务的 事项。 第五条 公司关联人包括关联法人和关联自然人。 第六条 具有以下情形之一的法人，为公司的关联法人（或者其他组织）： （一）直接或间接地控制公司的法人（或者其他组织）； （二）由前项所述法人直接或间接控制的除公司及公司控股子公司以外 的法人 ...