每经记者 温梦华 每经编辑 赵云 4月10日晚间，燕京啤酒交出了2024年业绩快报和2025年第一季度的"预答卷"。 数据显示，2024年公司实现啤酒销量400.44万千升，同比增长1.57%；其中燕京U8销量69.60万千升，同比增 长31.40%。 公司全年实现营收约146.67亿元，同比增长3.20%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润约10.56亿元，同比增长 63.74%；扣除非经常性损益后的归属于上市公司股东的净利润约为10.41亿元，同比增长108.03%。 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | 增减变动幅度(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 雪业息收入 | 14,667,016,921.50 | 14,212,857,297.00 | 3.20 | | 营业利润 | 1,608,740,539,33 | 1,024,912,985.13 | 56.96 | | 利润息额 | 1,571,718,684.07 | 1,039,102,965.09 | 51.26 | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 | 1,055,678,539.28 | 644,714,424.03 ...

Financial Performance - The estimated net profit for Q1 2025 is projected to be between 160 million and 172 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 55.96% to 67.66% compared to 102.59 million CNY in the same period last year[4] - The estimated net profit after deducting non-recurring gains is expected to be between 148 million and 160 million CNY, indicating a growth of 44.19% to 55.88% from 102.65 million CNY in the previous year[4] - The basic earnings per share are projected to be between 0.0568 CNY and 0.0610 CNY, compared to 0.0364 CNY in the same period last year[4] Business Development - The company continues to experience high-quality development, with the major product Yanjing U8 maintaining a growth rate of over 30%[6] - The strong performance in Q1 is seen as a solid foundation for achieving the annual targets[6] Financial Reporting - The financial data presented is preliminary and has not yet been audited by the accounting firm[5] - The company emphasizes the importance of timely and accurate information disclosure to mitigate investment risks[7]

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of RMB 14,667,016,921.50, a year-on-year increase of 3.20%[4] - The company's operating profit reached RMB 1,608,740,539.33, reflecting a significant growth of 56.96% compared to the previous year[4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1,055,678,539.28, marking a 63.74% increase year-on-year[4] - Basic earnings per share rose to RMB 0.375, a 63.76% increase compared to the previous year[4] - The weighted average return on equity increased to 7.42%, up 2.69 percentage points from the previous year[4] Sales and Market Performance - The company sold 4,004,400 hectoliters of beer, with a year-on-year growth of 1.57%, while the sales of Yanjing U8 increased by 31.40% to 696,000 hectoliters[5] - The company maintained a strategic expansion approach while upgrading its sales channel structure, achieving a nationwide layout for its major product, Yanjing U8[5] Assets and Equity - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were RMB 23,147,092,477.13, up 9.03% from the beginning of the period[6] - Shareholders' equity attributable to the company was RMB 14,619,021,633.06, an increase of 5.59%[6] Strategic Initiatives - The company implemented nine major transformation strategies to enhance long-term competitive advantages and improve operational efficiency[5]

燕京啤酒（000729）公告，2024年度公司实现营业总收入146.67亿元，同比增长3.20%；营业利润16.09 亿元，同比增长56.96%；利润总额15.72亿元，同比增长51.26%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润10.56亿 元，同比增长63.74%；扣除非经常性损益后的归属于上市公司股东的净利润10.41亿元，同比增长 108.03%；基本每股收益0.375元，同比增长63.76%；加权平均净资产收益率7.42%，同比增长2.69个百 分点。 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a strong willingness to boost domestic demand through policy measures, with signs of recovery observed in quality companies, suggesting an active investment strategy [3][4][12]. Group 1: Beer Industry - The beer sector is witnessing a stabilization in demand, with leading companies managing to clear inventory risks early, which positions them favorably for growth [12][14]. - In Q1 2025, beer consumption showed positive growth, driven by the Spring Festival and a low inventory start for major brands, with national sales expected to increase [9][10][12]. - Investment recommendations focus on high-sensitivity beer stocks, such as China Resources Beer and Qingdao Beer, as well as strong individual stocks like Dongpeng Beverage and Haitian Flavoring [6][14][17]. Group 2: Snack Industry - The snack market is characterized by significant differences in product performance, with strong sales in gift boxes during the Spring Festival and notable growth in konjac-based snacks [21][22]. - Leading snack companies are enhancing product quality and competitive pricing to adapt to the current consumer trend towards value [21][22]. - The report suggests focusing on high-growth companies like Weidong and Yanjinpuzi, which are expected to achieve over 20% revenue growth in 2025 [29][26]. Group 3: Dairy Industry - The dairy sector is anticipated to face a supply-demand turning point by the end of 2025, as upstream inventory is expected to clear, leading to improved market conditions [32][41]. - Policies aimed at boosting birth rates are expected to further stimulate dairy consumption, with significant government support for families [38][40]. - Investment focus should be on leading dairy companies that maintain high levels of investor returns, such as Yili and Mengniu, which are expected to stabilize their profit margins [41][45]. Group 4: Beverage Industry - The beverage sector continues to show high growth potential, particularly for companies like Dongpeng Beverage, which is expanding its market presence and product offerings [46][48]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of consumers favoring functional beverages, with projected growth rates for various beverage categories [48][49]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies that are effectively leveraging their distribution networks and product innovation to capture market share [46][48]. Group 5: Restaurant Supply Chain - The restaurant supply chain is experiencing a recovery in demand, supported by government policies aimed at stimulating domestic consumption [51][57]. - The competitive landscape remains intense, with a significant number of restaurant closures indicating a need for efficiency improvements within the supply chain [57][58]. - The report suggests that the restaurant supply chain sector may see profitability improvements as inventory levels normalize and demand stabilizes [58][59].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Viewpoints - The revenue of the beverage and tea industry in January-February decreased by 0.4% year-on-year [2] - The overall performance of the food and beverage sector shows a slight increase, with the food and beverage index rising by 0.40% from March 24 to March 28, ranking third among 28 sub-industries [6][7] - The report recommends high-end liquor with stable demand and high growth certainty, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as strong regional brands [18] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - From March 24 to March 28, the overall market index increased by 0.07%, while the food and beverage index increased by 0.40% [6][7] - The top-performing sectors were meat products (+2.86%), dairy products (+2.13%), and beer (+2.01%) [6] - Notable stock performances included Miaokelando (+28.66%), Guangming Meat (+13.02%), and Yanjinpuzi (+5.33%) [6] Company Announcements - Shuanghui Development reported a total revenue of 59.561 billion yuan for 2024, down 0.55% year-on-year [21] - Zhujiang Beer reported a total revenue of 5.731 billion yuan for 2024, up 6.56% year-on-year [21] - Sanquan Food reported a total revenue of 3.476 billion yuan for 2024, up 10.41% year-on-year [21] - Three squirrels reported a total revenue of 10.622 billion yuan for 2024, up 49.30% year-on-year [21] Industry News - The 112th National Sugar and Wine Commodity Fair is preparing to sign several major projects with a total investment exceeding 3 billion yuan [23] Consumer Data - In January-February 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year-on-year, while the catering retail sales increased by 4.3% [24] - The consumer confidence index for January 2025 was 87.5, down 1.57% year-on-year [24] Alcohol Industry Data - In January-February 2025, the production of liquor, beer, and wine decreased by 11.2%, 4.9%, and 25% year-on-year, respectively [29]

Core Viewpoint - The beer industry in China is experiencing a decline in sales volume, with major players facing challenges, while some smaller brands are showing growth in both sales and profitability [1][2][4]. Sales Performance - In 2024, major beer companies in China reported sales volume changes: Budweiser APAC down 11.8%, Qingdao Beer down 5.86%, China Resources Beer down 2.5%, Chongqing Beer down 0.75%, Yanjing Beer up 1.6%, and Zhujiang Beer up 2.62% [2][4]. - The overall beer production in China decreased by 0.6% in 2024, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment towards daily fast-moving consumer goods [2]. Market Dynamics - The gap in market share among major players has narrowed, with leading companies like China Resources, Qingdao, and Budweiser all experiencing declines in revenue and sales, while Yanjing and Zhujiang have continued to grow beyond industry levels [4]. - Zhujiang Beer saw a nearly 37% increase in net profit, while Yanjing Beer’s net profit surged by over 50% [4]. Premiumization Trends - Yanjing Beer achieved total sales exceeding 4 million kiloliters in 2024, with its flagship product Yanjing U8 selling close to 700,000 kiloliters, marking a growth rate of over 30% for two consecutive years [5]. - Zhujiang Beer reported a nearly 14% increase in sales of high-end beer products in 2024 [5]. Challenges for Leading Brands - Budweiser APAC faced a 1.4% decline in revenue per hectoliter in China, while Qingdao Beer’s sales of mid-to-high-end products dropped by 2.65% [6]. - Despite overall revenue and sales declines, leading beer companies emphasize that their premium products continue to grow, with China Resources Beer reporting that mid-range and above beer sales exceeded 50% of total sales for the first time [7]. Pricing and Profitability - The ton price for major brands in 2024 was as follows: China Resources Beer over 3,300 yuan, Qingdao Beer over 4,200 yuan, Budweiser APAC over 5,300 yuan, Chongqing Beer over 5,200 yuan, while Yanjing and Zhujiang Beer were around 3,100 yuan and 3,800 yuan respectively [9]. - Despite slight revenue declines, China Resources and Qingdao Beer still reported revenues exceeding 36 billion yuan and 32 billion yuan respectively, indicating a significant lead over smaller competitors [11]. Future Outlook - The beer industry, while facing volume declines, still has potential for slow growth if price increases can outpace volume decreases [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [35] Core Views - The report indicates that the white liquor market remains stable, with a focus on high-performing companies. The market is expected to see single-digit positive growth in Q1 2025 for major white liquor companies, supported by strong performance from core products. Long-term demand recovery is anticipated with the implementation of consumer policies, although short-term tariff risks need to be monitored [6][4][8] - In the food sector, the report highlights the emergence of new products in the snack industry and suggests investment opportunities in the snack and catering supply chain. The snack industry is experiencing high growth due to channel and product advantages, while the catering industry is expected to stabilize and show slight recovery [6][9] Summary by Sections White Liquor Industry - The white liquor index saw a cumulative increase of 0.23% this week, with top performers including Jinshiyuan (+1.94%), Luzhou Laojiao (+1.24%), and Guizhou Moutai (+0.73%). Conversely, Yinjia Gongjiu (-3.05%), Huangtai Jiuye (-4.64%), and Yanshi Co. (-31.24%) were the worst performers [6] - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: high-end white liquor with strong demand (Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao), mid-range white liquor with ongoing national expansion (Shanxi Fenjiu), and real estate liquor with expanding price ranges (Yinjia Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, Laobai Ganjiu, Gujing Gongjiu) [6][4] Food Industry - The food index experienced a cumulative decline of 0.41% this week, with top gainers being Guangming Meat Industry (+13.02%), Jiahe Food (+6.44%), and Yanjinpuzi (+5.33%). The worst performers included Xiwang Food (-7.24%), Lianhua Holdings (-9.29%), and Baiyang Co. (-12.25%) [6] - The report emphasizes the high growth potential in the snack sector and suggests monitoring companies like Three Squirrels and Yanjinpuzi. It also notes a potential slight recovery in the catering industry, recommending attention to related sectors such as beer, condiments, and frozen foods, with specific mentions of Yanjing Beer, Haitian Flavoring, and Anjui Foods [6][9] Individual Company Insights - Guizhou Moutai is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 15.44% in 2024, with a stable operational rhythm despite a weak macroeconomic environment [7] - Wuliangye plans to maintain a cash dividend of no less than 70% of its net profit for 2024-2026, aiming to bolster market confidence [7] - Luzhou Laojiao is expected to see growth driven by its strong brand foundation and strategic market expansion [7] - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue increase of 11.4% in Q3 2024, with a focus on marketing reforms and channel expansion [7] - In the food sector, East Peng Beverage reported a 45.34% revenue increase, while Haitian Flavoring showed a 9.38% revenue growth, indicating resilience in their respective markets [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The beer industry in China is experiencing a decline in sales and revenue, with major players facing challenges in maintaining growth, while some smaller brands are gaining market share and profitability [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 32.138 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 5.3%, with a net profit of 4.345 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8%, and sales volume of 7.538 million kiloliters, down 5.86% [1]. - Among the five major beer companies, four experienced a decline in sales last year, with Budweiser APAC down 11.8%, Qingdao Beer down 5.86%, China Resources Beer down 2.5%, and Chongqing Beer down 0.75% [1]. - Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer were exceptions, with Yanjing Beer growing by 1.6% and Zhujiang Beer by 2.62% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market share gap among major players has narrowed, with leading companies like China Resources, Qingdao, and Budweiser all facing revenue and sales declines, while Yanjing and Zhujiang continue to grow beyond industry levels [3]. - Yanjing Beer achieved total sales exceeding 4 million kiloliters in 2024, with its flagship product Yanjing U8 seeing sales close to 700,000 kiloliters, growing over 30% for two consecutive years [3]. - Zhujiang Beer reported a nearly 14% increase in high-end beer product sales year-on-year, with net profit rising by nearly 37% [3]. Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - Despite overall revenue and sales declines, leading beer companies emphasize growth in their premium products, with China Resources reporting that mid-range and above beer sales accounted for over 50% of its total sales [3]. - The average price per ton for China Resources Beer exceeded 3,300 yuan, Qingdao Beer over 4,200 yuan, Budweiser APAC over 5,300 yuan, and Chongqing Beer over 5,200 yuan, while Yanjing and Zhujiang's prices were around 3,100 yuan and 3,800 yuan respectively [5]. - The leading companies still maintain significant revenue advantages, with China Resources and Qingdao Beer generating revenues of over 36 billion yuan and 32 billion yuan respectively, while Chongqing Beer, Yanjing Beer, and Zhujiang Beer reported revenues of 14.6 billion yuan, less than 13 billion yuan, and 5.7 billion yuan respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the beer industry, but it discusses the high-end market growth and potential investment opportunities in this segment. Core Insights - The high-end beer market in China has entered a mid-stage of development, with significant growth in large single products and an expanding premium price segment [3][9]. - The report predicts a slowdown in the high-end trend from 2023 to 2024, with an optimistic CAGR of 7.33% for beer prices in China from 2022 to 2027 [4][6]. - The overall beer market has stabilized, with low-price competition failing to generate growth, making high-end upgrades the long-term driver for price increases in the industry [5][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Price and Volume Review - The beer industry in China has undergone three phases: growth (2000-2012), contraction (2013-2017), and a decline in production (2018-2023) [11][24]. - During the growth phase, revenue increased from 446 billion to 1612 billion CNY, with a CAGR of 11.3% driven by volume growth [11]. - The contraction phase saw a slight decline in revenue, with a CAGR of -0.7%, as low-end price wars failed to yield significant market share [11][24]. - The current phase (2018-2023) is characterized by a focus on high-end products, with revenue growth returning to 1863 billion CNY, reflecting a CAGR of 4.8% [11][24]. High-End Market Review - The high-end market has expanded significantly, with major domestic manufacturers developing large single products that have reached scales exceeding 400,000 tons [3][9]. - The competition in the high-end segment remains dynamic, with the potential for major shifts in market share as brands establish their flagship products [3][9]. - The report emphasizes that the high-end market's growth is supported by an increase in middle-income consumers and urbanization, which enhances purchasing power [35][36]. Price Forecasting - The report forecasts that the average price of beer in China will grow at a CAGR of approximately 7.33% from 2022 to 2027, aligning with historical trends observed in the U.S. beer market [4][6][73]. - The price increase is attributed to structural upgrades in product offerings and the ability of manufacturers to implement price increases effectively [70][71]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape has shifted from volume-based competition to brand strength and product differentiation, particularly in the high-end segment [80]. - The report notes that the high-end beer market is increasingly dominated by younger consumers who prioritize quality over price, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [38][43]. Long-Term Drivers - The core consumer demographic (ages 20-50) is identified as a long-term driver of beer consumption, with changes in consumer preferences and income levels influencing demand [19][22]. - The report highlights that the growth of the middle class and urbanization are critical factors supporting the transition to premium beer consumption [35][36].