金融界消息 截至2025年7月30日收盘，酒鬼酒（000799）报收于48.97元，上涨0.58%，换手率3.82%， 成交量12.41万手，成交金额6.14亿元。 资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流入2708.55万元，占比成交额4.41%。其中，超大单净流入2676.32万 元、占成交额4.36%，大单净流入32.22万元、占成交额0.05%，中单净流出流出707.41万元、占成交额 1.15%，小单净流出2001.13万元、占成交额3.26%。 天眼查商业履历信息显示，酒鬼酒股份有限公司，成立于1997年，位于湘西土家族苗族自治州，是一家 以从事酒、饮料和精制茶制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本32492.898万人民币，实缴资本10072.73万人 民币。公司法定代表人为程军。 通过天眼查大数据分析，酒鬼酒股份有限公司共对外投资了5家企业，参与招投标项目1265次，知识产 权方面有商标信息420条，专利信息398条，此外企业还拥有行政许可182个。 来源：金融界 酒鬼酒最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入3.44亿元、同比减少30.34%，归属净利润 3171.33万元，同比减少56.78%， ...

Opportunities - Brand effect drives regional market enthusiasm, with the success of Jiu Gui Jiu enhancing the visibility of Hunan liquor nationally, creating opportunities for local brands like Xiang Jiao and Wu Ling Jiu to expand [4] - Policy and industrial upgrades support the liquor industry, with Hunan's "14th Five-Year Plan" aiming to build a trillion-level food industry chain, potentially favoring high-value industries like liquor through tax incentives and subsidies [4] - Consumption upgrade and localization trends are evident, as rising GDP (expected to exceed 70,000 yuan in 2024) boosts demand for mid-to-high-end liquor, allowing local brands to capture the sub-high-end price range (300-800 yuan) [4] - Channel penetration and digitalization opportunities arise, with underdeveloped county-level markets for liquor that can be accessed through community marketing and live e-commerce [4] Challenges - Market competition intensifies as national brands like Moutai and Wuliangye penetrate the Hunan market, putting pressure on local brands regarding channel access and brand recognition [5] - Quality and production capacity bottlenecks exist, with Hunan liquor accounting for only about 2% of national production in 2024, raising concerns about supply chain management and potential quality fluctuations [5] - Cultural recognition and differentiation challenges arise, as local brands lack national recognition in categories like sauce and strong aroma types, necessitating long-term consumer education [5] - External risks include economic downturn pressures affecting consumption in banquet and gift scenarios, as well as stricter environmental policies impacting water sources and emissions for liquor production [5] Recommendations - Strengthen regional collaboration by establishing a "Xiang Jiu Alliance" to promote the "Hunan Production Area" concept collectively, avoiding isolated efforts [6] - Drive innovation through technology and culture by partnering with universities to develop brewing techniques while leveraging Hunan cultural narratives to enhance brand storytelling [6] - Innovate distribution channels by exploring instant retail options (e.g., Meituan Flash Purchase) and membership-based private traffic to counter traditional channel barriers [7]

Core Insights - The white liquor market has experienced a collective price decline since 2025, affecting both high-end and mid-range products due to a cooling consumption environment and high inventory pressures [1][15][16] - The South China region, particularly the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, has shown significant price differentiation and a notable decline in retail prices for various white liquor products [1][2][3] Market Performance - More than half of the monitored products have seen a price drop since the beginning of the year, with high-end products being the most affected [2][15] - Among 21 monitored products, 15 experienced a decline in average retail prices, with only 4 showing slight increases and 2 remaining stable [2][3] - The most significant price drop was observed in Feitian Moutai, which fell from approximately 2624 CNY to 2368 CNY, a decrease of 256 CNY [2][3] Price Trends by Product - Feitian Moutai's market price has dropped significantly, with current prices ranging from 2100 to 2400 CNY per bottle, marking a decline of over 15% from its peak [3][15] - Other products in the thousand CNY price range, such as the eighth generation Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573, also saw price reductions, with the eighth generation Wuliangye dropping by 110 CNY [10][15] - Mid-range products like Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ and Guotai Guobiao also experienced price declines, although to a lesser extent compared to high-end products [4][10] Regional Price Dynamics - In Guangzhou, 17 out of 21 products saw price declines, with Feitian Moutai dropping from 2648 CNY to 2305 CNY [7][8] - Shenzhen's market showed a downward trend in retail prices, although some products had inflated prices due to high-end retail channels [9][10] - Dongguan's market exhibited significant price fluctuations influenced by seasonal demand and promotional activities, with Feitian Moutai's price dropping to 2299 CNY during peak sales periods [12][13] Inventory and Market Conditions - The white liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with high inventory levels leading to price pressures across all product categories [15][16] - Approximately 60% of companies are facing price inversion, particularly in the 800 to 1500 CNY price range, which is experiencing the most significant downward pressure [15][16] - The average inventory turnover days have increased to 900 days, indicating a challenging market environment for producers [15][16] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue facing challenges as companies balance between maintaining prices and expanding market share [17][18] - The introduction of new statistical methods and the inclusion of additional cities like Foshan in price monitoring may provide a clearer picture of market dynamics moving forward [20][21]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a significant rally, with the Food ETF (515710) showing a maximum intraday increase of 1.15% and currently up by 0.98% [1] - Key stocks in the sector include Meihua Biological, which surged over 3%, and several others like Luzhou Laojiao and Yanjing Beer, which rose more than 2% [1] - The food and beverage sector has attracted over 2.4 billion yuan in net inflows, ranking fourth among 30 major sectors [2][3] Group 2 - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low point after a significant pullback, with expectations of a new market trend due to improved sentiment and policy adjustments [3] - The liquor industry is facing challenges due to unexpected restrictions impacting consumption, but there are indications of a potential bottoming out in the second half of the year [3] - Recent government policies, such as the implementation of a childcare subsidy program, are expected to boost demand for dairy products, particularly infant formula [4][5] Group 3 - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is attractive, with the Food ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 20.19, which is at a low point historically [5] - The overall sentiment in the food and beverage sector is expected to improve as economic stimulus policies take effect, leading to a potential recovery in demand [5] - The government is promoting consumption as a key driver for economic growth, which is likely to benefit sectors like snacks and dairy products [5][6] Group 4 - The Food ETF (515710) primarily invests in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with significant allocations to dairy, beverages, and condiments [6] - Investors can also access core assets in the food and beverage sector through the Food ETF linked funds [6]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a general rise in liquor stocks, with notable increases in stocks such as JiuGuiJiu and LuZhouLaoJiao, which rose over 2% [1] - Other companies like YingJiaGongJiu, YangHe股份, ShunXin Agriculture, GuJingGongJiu, and JinShiYuan experienced increases of over 1%, while Moutai, KouZiJiao, and WuLiangYe rose nearly 1% [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performance includes LuZhouLaoJiao with a rise of 2.17% and a total market value of 186.9 billion, while JiuGuiJiu increased by 2.07% with a market value of 16.1 billion [2] - YingJiaGongJiu rose by 1.48% with a market value of 34.5 billion, and YangHe股份 increased by 1.46% with a market value of 103.8 billion [2] - Other notable performances include GuJingGongJiu up by 1.42% (market value 75.7 billion), and ShanXiFenJiu up by 1.25% (market value 226.1 billion) [2]

责任编辑：栎树 A股市场白酒股普涨，其中，酒鬼酒、泸州老窖涨超2%，迎驾贡酒、洋河股份、顺鑫农业、古井贡 酒、今世缘涨超1%，茅台、口子窖、五粮液涨近1%。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000568 | 泸州老窖 | નીક | 2.17 | 1869亿 | 2.64 | | 000799 | 酒鬼酒 | 4 | 2.07 | 161亿 | -10.64 | | 603198 | 迎驾贡酒 | 1 | 1.48 | 345亿 | -16.97 | | 002304 | 洋河股份 | -06- | 1.46 | 1038 Z | -11.98 | | 000596 | 古井贡酒 | 来 | 1.42 | 757亿 | -13.74 | | 600809 | 山西汾酒 | -06- | 1.25 | 2261亿 | 4.15 | | 000860 | 顺鑫农业 | 来 | 1.19 | 119亿 | -16.46 | | 603369 | 今世缘 | | 1.10 | 505亿 | -7 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市値 | 年初至今涨幅%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000568 | 泸州老窖 | 来 | 2.17 | 1869亿 | 2.64 | | 000799 | 酒鬼酒 | 4 | 2.07 | 161亿 | -10.64 | | 603198 | 迎驾贡酒 | 1 | 1.48 | 345亿 | -16.97 | | 002304 | 洋河股份 | -06- | 1.46 | 1038亿 | -11.98 | | 000596 | 古井贡酒 | 来 | 1.42 | 757亿 | -13.74 | | 600809 | 山西汾酒 | 来 | 1.25 | 2261亿 | 4.15 | | 000860 | 顺鑫农业 | 张 | 1.19 | 119亿 | -16.46 | | 603369 | 今世缘 | | 1.10 | 505亿 | -7.98 | | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | 1 | 0.94 | 18247亿 | -2.82 | | 603589 | 口子窖 | -306- | 0.89 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Jiu Gui Jiu Co., Ltd. shows a significant decline in revenue and profit for the first quarter of 2025, indicating potential challenges for the company moving forward [1]. Financial Performance - As of July 29, 2025, Jiu Gui Jiu's stock closed at 48.69 yuan, down 0.39% with a turnover rate of 2.33% and a trading volume of 75,600 hands, amounting to a transaction value of 365 million yuan [1]. - The company's total operating revenue for Q1 2025 was 344 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.34% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 31.71 million yuan, down 56.78% year-on-year [1]. - The non-recurring net profit was 31.45 million yuan, a decrease of 54.76% year-on-year [1]. - The liquidity ratio was 3.110, the quick ratio was 1.316, and the debt-to-asset ratio was 20.57% [1]. Capital Flow - On the day of reporting, the main capital outflow was 34.04 million yuan, accounting for 9.32% of the transaction value [1]. - Large orders saw a net outflow of 21.99 million yuan, representing 6.02% of the transaction value, while small orders had a net inflow of 38.09 million yuan, making up 10.43% of the transaction value [1]. Company Overview - Jiu Gui Jiu Co., Ltd. was established in 1997 and is located in the Xiangxi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, primarily engaged in the manufacturing of liquor, beverages, and refined tea [1]. - The company has a registered capital of 3.25 billion yuan and a paid-in capital of 1.01 billion yuan [1]. - The legal representative of the company is Cheng Jun [1]. Investment and Intellectual Property - Jiu Gui Jiu has made investments in five external companies and participated in 1,265 bidding projects [2]. - The company holds 420 trademark registrations and 398 patents, along with 182 administrative licenses [2].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperforming the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is showing signs of recovery as companies actively launch new products to adapt to changing consumer demands. The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan liquor index is 18.51X, which is at a reasonable low level compared to the past decade [2][11] - The beverage sector, particularly beer and soft drinks, is expected to benefit from upcoming consumption promotion policies and adjustments to alcohol bans, which will drive sales recovery [3][12] - The pre-processed food and seasoning sectors are leading the market, with a focus on companies that can enhance efficiency and market share through cost reduction and product diversification [13][19] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From July 21 to July 25, the food and beverage sector increased by 0.74%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.69%. Notable increases were seen in pre-processed foods (+1.97%) and health products (+1.88%) [1][20] Liquor Sector Insights - The liquor sector increased by 0.94%, outperforming the overall food and beverage sector. Key players like Tianyoude Liquor saw significant gains, potentially linked to local infrastructure investments [2][11] - Recommendations include strong alpha companies such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, as well as beta companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye [2][19] Beer and Beverage Sector Insights - The beer sector rose by 1.06%, with Budweiser Asia and Chongqing Beer leading the gains. Management changes at Zhujiang Beer are expected to positively impact the company [3][12] - The soft drink sector also performed well, with notable increases from brands like Nongfu Spring (+8.1%) [3][14] Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, strong alpha companies benefiting from market concentration include Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [19] - In the consumer goods sector, companies that align with cost reduction and market share enhancement strategies are recommended, including Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [19] Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE ratio is 21.1X, ranking it 21st among primary industries. The highest valuations are seen in other liquor (55.83X) and health products (48.77X) [26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is currently undergoing a deep adjustment period, with overall market performance being sluggish and many companies reporting significant declines in revenue and profit [1][3][4]. Industry Overview - The liquor industry is experiencing a noticeable slowdown in growth, with many companies reporting declines in both revenue and net profit, and some even turning from profit to loss [1][3]. - The adjustment in the industry is characterized by a systemic pressure affecting all companies, rather than isolated operational issues [3][4]. Company Performance - Jiu Gui Jiu's net profit for the first half of the year is expected to be between 8 million and 12 million yuan, a decline of 90.08% to 93.39% compared to 121 million yuan in the same period last year, with revenue expected to drop by approximately 43% to around 560 million yuan [1]. - Shui Jing Fang anticipates a net profit of 105 million yuan for the first half of the year, down 56.52% year-on-year, with revenue expected to decrease by 12.84% to 1.498 billion yuan, despite a 14.54% increase in sales volume [1]. - Shunxin Agriculture expects a net profit of 155 million to 195 million yuan, a decline of 53.85% to 63.32% year-on-year, due to decreased sales volume impacting overall revenue and profit levels [3]. - Jinzhongzi forecasts a net loss of 60 million to 90 million yuan for the first half of the year, attributing this to the industry's deep adjustment and ongoing decline in production [3]. Market Dynamics - The industry faces multiple challenges, including shrinking consumption scenarios, soft market demand, and a shift in consumer preferences towards fruit wines and low-alcohol beverages [4]. - High inventory levels and serious price inversion issues are exacerbating industry pressures, with over 58% of distributors reporting increased inventory and more than half facing price inversion problems [4]. - The average inventory turnover days have reached 900 days, an increase of 10% year-on-year, indicating significant supply chain inefficiencies [4]. Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges, leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are still achieving relatively stable growth, with Moutai reporting a 9% year-on-year revenue increase [7]. - The low-alcohol beverage market is emerging as a new growth point, with companies exploring new product lines and sales channels [7]. - Industry experts predict a full recovery by 2027, with new development opportunities arising in 2028, suggesting that patience and understanding are needed for the industry's transformation [8][9].