能复制的。" 国际经贸专家警告，西方当前的对抗策略无异于"经济自残"。在新能源革命加速的今天，与中国建立稳定的稀土贸易关系，才是确保产业链 安全的明智之举。这场稀土博弈的最终结局，或许早在中国的产业布局中就已注定。 分析人士指出，31国内部立场分歧严重，政策协调面临巨大挑战。更危险的是，这些措施可能适得其反：关税战会推高西方企业成本，限价 政策可能招致中方反制。中国已着手开拓新兴市场，并建立战略储备体系，随时可以调整供应策略。 全球稀土争夺战进入白热化阶段！G7和欧盟31国近日密谋四招，试图打破中国在稀土领域的垄断地位。然而专家分析指出，这些措施不仅难 以撼动中国的主导地位，反而可能让西方国家陷入更严重的供应链危机。 数据不会说谎：即便其他国家开采出稀土矿石，仍需要运往中国进行加工。这种技术壁垒让美欧此前的替代尝试全部折戟——美国本土开采 计划因资本冷遇而搁浅，欧盟的太空采矿构想更是天方夜谭。中国稀土联盟负责人表示："我们拥有从矿山到工厂的完整生态，这不是短期 最新情报显示，西方国家正在推动四项关键措施：加强外资监管限制对华投资、设定本地稀土采购配额、对中国稀土加征关税和碳税、模仿 美国设定稀土价格下限。但现 ...

Group 1 - The G7 and EU are planning to set a price floor for rare earths and impose tariffs on Chinese exports to counter China's dominance in rare earth production [3][5] - Rare earths are crucial for industries such as electric vehicles and military applications, with China controlling approximately 70% of global supply [5][6] - The G7's reliance on China for rare earths and critical minerals poses a significant risk to their industrial sectors, including automotive and defense [5][6] Group 2 - China possesses a unique leverage in the trade war with the West due to its control over rare earth supplies, which are essential for various technologies [5][8] - The potential use of rare earth export restrictions could serve as a bargaining chip for China to negotiate the lifting of bans on semiconductor technology and other goods from the West [10] - The strategy of leveraging rare earths could lead to substantial long-term economic benefits for China, outweighing short-term revenue losses from export restrictions [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [66]. Core Views - Recent disruptions in copper mining, particularly the mudslide incident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, have raised concerns about copper supply, potentially leading to price increases as demand peaks in the industrial metals sector [5][57]. - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is expected to support metal prices, particularly as the domestic industrial metal demand season approaches [5][59]. - The report highlights significant price movements in various metal markets, with copper prices reaching $10,275 per ton and gold prices increasing to $3,780.50 per ounce as of September 25, 2025 [24][36]. Market Review - As of September 25, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has seen a 1.28% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.28 percentage points, ranking 9th among 31 sectors [12]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals industry has risen by 56.32%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has increased by 39.58% [12]. - The energy metals sector has shown a notable increase of 4.68% in the last two weeks, while the small metals sector has decreased by 5.42% [19][18]. Price Analysis - As of September 25, 2025, the following prices were recorded: LME copper at $10,275/ton, LME aluminum at $2,664/ton, LME lead at $2,009/ton, LME zinc at $2,922.50/ton, LME nickel at $15,240/ton, and LME tin at $34,390/ton [24][58]. - Gold prices have increased by $264.4 since the beginning of September, with COMEX silver also showing a rise of $4.72 [36][59]. - The report notes a decline in rare earth prices, with the rare earth price index at 217.37, down 9.56 from the beginning of September [42][60]. Company Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Xingye Silver Tin (000426) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) in the industrial metals sector [5][59]. - In the gold sector, Zijin Mining (601899) is recommended due to its potential for growth amid rising gold prices [59]. - For small metals, companies like Xiamen Tungsten (600549), China Rare Earth (000831), and Jieli Permanent Magnet (300748) are highlighted for their market positions [61].

西方多国密谋对中国稀土卡脖子 专家：暴露其产业焦虑 这就像走进超市想买打折商品，却威胁店员必须降价，否则就举报商店。一位行业专家形象地指出，结果可能是商店直接停业整顿，顾客反而无货可买。 据外媒报道，G7集团和欧盟近期正在酝酿一项针对中国稀土产业的限制措施，计划通过设定最低价格、加征关税和碳税等手段，试图削弱中国在全球稀土 市场的主导地位。这一举动暴露出西方国家在关键矿产供应链上的战略焦虑。 知情人士透露，包括美国、欧盟成员国在内的30多个国家正在讨论建立稀土价格联盟。澳大利亚已率先考虑对中国稀土实施最低限价政策，加拿大表现出积 极态度，欧盟也在研究类似方案。这种抱团行为反映出西方国家既想减少对中国稀土的依赖，又难以割舍中国稀土的价格优势和技术保障。 值得注意的是，今年4月中国对部分关键矿产实施出口管制后，西方企业立即出现稀土荒的连锁反应。欧盟官员甚至无端指责中国将稀土武器化，却对自身 供应链的脆弱性避而不谈。 为摆脱对中国稀土的依赖，西方国家曾尝试多种替代方案：美国投入巨资重启本土矿山，欧盟甚至研究过太空采矿的可行性。但现实很骨感——这些项目或 因成本过高，或因技术瓶颈，大多收效甚微。 分析人士指出，西方的 ...

Group 1 - The G7 and EU are considering setting a price floor for rare earths to boost production and may impose taxes on certain Chinese rare earth exports to encourage investment in the sector [1][3] - The G7 countries, except Japan, are highly dependent on China for various materials, including rare earth magnets and battery metals, prompting discussions on regulatory measures to limit investments flowing to China [1][3] - There is internal disagreement within the G7 regarding the implementation of regional restrictions, which could include local procurement rules or limitations on public procurement from specific countries like China [1][3] Group 2 - The U.S. government is collaborating with the G7 and EU leaders on broader trade measures to prevent low-priced dumping of rare earths, including tariffs and price floors [3] - The U.S. has recently introduced a price floor mechanism to encourage domestic rare earth production, with G7 officials considering similar subsidy-supported policies [3] - Despite these efforts, companies in G7 countries find it challenging to sever ties with China due to its significant role in the global rare earth supply chain and its competitive pricing advantages [3][4]

Group 1: Rare Metal ETF Performance - The Rare Metal ETF has a turnover rate of 3.51% and a transaction volume of 87.15 million yuan [3] - As of September 25, the ETF has seen an average daily transaction volume of 208 million yuan over the past month, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's scale has increased by 247 million yuan this month, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's shares have grown by 43.5 million shares this month, achieving significant growth and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - Over the past 19 trading days, the ETF has experienced net inflows on 10 days, totaling 423 million yuan [3] - The ETF's net value has increased by 79.68% over the past year [3] - The highest monthly return since inception is 24.02%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 4 months and a maximum increase of 58.56% [3] - The average monthly return during rising months is 8.77%, and the ETF has outperformed the benchmark with an annualized return of 5.45% over the past three months [3] Group 2: Silicon Carbide and Rare Metals Market Trends - Silicon carbide prices have risen by 5.7% to 5,600 yuan per ton, reaching a three-month high, while high-purity gallium prices have increased by 1.1% due to recovering demand in the semiconductor sector [4] - The strategic importance of silicon carbide as a core substrate is increasing with its penetration in new energy vehicles, photovoltaic inverters, and 5G base stations [4] - Although short-term price fluctuations are influenced by production capacity release, the long-term outlook for the silicon carbide industry remains positive due to accelerated domestic substitution and increased downstream application [4] - Prices of tungsten and praseodymium-neodymium oxide are also at high levels, indicating a continued structural tightness in resource supply [4] Group 3: Top Holdings in Rare Metal Index - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metal Theme Index include Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Salt Lake Industry, Huayou Cobalt, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, China Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, Zhongjin Resources, and Xiamen Tungsten, collectively accounting for 57.58% of the index [4]

Group 1 - The rare metal ETF fund has seen a turnover rate of 6.78% with a transaction volume of 11.3956 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past month is 19.6415 million yuan as of September 25 [3] - The net value of the rare metal ETF fund has increased by 78.35% over the past year, with the highest monthly return since inception being 24.02% and the longest consecutive monthly increase lasting 4 months with a total increase of 57.92% [3] - Supply constraints have led to a significant rise in cobalt prices, with the Democratic Republic of Congo extending its cobalt export ban until October 15, resulting in a nearly 40% increase in cobalt prices this year [3] Group 2 - Bohai Securities indicates that the extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo has caused a significant decline in domestic cobalt raw material imports, with electrolytic cobalt prices recovering to 275,000 yuan per ton from earlier lows [4] - The industry is currently in a destocking phase, and the cobalt supply is expected to remain constrained through 2026-2027, despite steady demand growth in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metals Theme Index account for 57.58%, with notable companies including Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Ganfeng Lithium [4] Group 3 - The rare metal ETF fund serves as a good investment tool for investors looking to gain exposure to the rare metals industry [6] - The performance of individual stocks within the rare metals sector varies, with notable increases in stocks like Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium, while Ganfeng Lithium has seen a slight decline [6]

Group 1 - The G7 and EU are considering setting a price floor for rare earths to boost production and may impose taxes on certain Chinese rare earth exports to encourage investment in the sector [1][2] - The G7 countries, except Japan, are highly dependent on China for various materials, including rare earth magnets and battery metals, prompting discussions on regulatory measures to limit investments flowing to China [1][2] - There are internal disagreements within the G7 regarding the implementation of regional restrictions, which could include local procurement rules or limitations on public procurement from specific countries like China [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government is collaborating with G7 and EU leaders on broader trade measures to prevent low-priced dumping of rare earths, including tariffs and price floors [2] - The U.S. has recently introduced a price floor mechanism to encourage domestic rare earth production, with G7 officials considering similar subsidy-supported policies [2] - Despite efforts to reduce reliance on China, the significant role of China in the global rare earth supply chain remains a challenge for G7 countries [2][3] Group 3 - China has established a dominant position in the rare earth sector over decades, and efforts by Western countries to exclude China from the supply chain face practical difficulties due to China's competitive pricing and ability to meet specific customer needs [3]

Group 1 - The G7 and EU are considering setting a price floor for rare earths to boost production and may impose taxes on certain Chinese rare earth exports to encourage investment in the sector [1][2] - The G7 countries, except Japan, are highly dependent on China for various materials, including rare earth magnets and battery metals, prompting discussions on regulatory measures to limit investments flowing to China [1][2] - There are internal disagreements within the G7 regarding the implementation of regional restrictions, which may include local procurement rules or limitations on public procurement from specific countries like China [1] Group 2 - The U.S. government is collaborating with the G7 and EU leaders on broader trade measures to prevent low-priced dumping of rare earths, including tariffs and price floors [2] - Canada is positively inclined towards adopting a price floor mechanism similar to the U.S. to support domestic rare earth production, while Australia is also considering similar actions [2] - Despite efforts to reduce reliance on China, the significant role of China in the global rare earth supply chain remains a challenge for G7 countries, as highlighted by industry leaders [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's response to the trade war initiated by the U.S. under President Trump, specifically through the implementation of rare earth export controls, highlighting the challenges faced by Western nations in attempting to reduce their reliance on Chinese rare earth resources [1][5]. Group 1: China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China holds a significant position in the global rare earth supply chain, with a mining volume of 69%, refining capacity of 90%, and complete monopoly on heavy rare earth processing [7]. - The average export price of Chinese rare earths has increased from $46.59 per kilogram in 2019 to $82 per kilogram by 2025, indicating a strong market position bolstered by technological barriers and environmental standards [9]. - China's management of rare earth elements includes strict regulations, requiring detailed documentation for each export, which complicates procurement for Western military enterprises [11]. Group 2: G7's Strategies and Challenges - The G7 has proposed setting a price floor for rare earths to force China to lower prices, but this strategy is seen as ineffective against market dynamics [9][12]. - Internal conflicts within the G7 regarding the imposition of tariffs on Chinese rare earths have emerged, with differing interests among member countries, such as Japan's reliance on Chinese rare earths for hybrid vehicle motors [16]. - The G7's consideration of carbon taxes on Chinese rare earths is criticized, as China's carbon emissions per unit of output have decreased significantly, while G7 countries struggle with higher emissions from their own operations [19][21]. Group 3: China's Strategic Response - In July 2025, China introduced the "Rare Earth Management Regulations," establishing a traceability system for rare earth products, countering G7's carbon tax proposals [23]. - China's rare earth exports increased by 21.4% year-on-year in July 2025, demonstrating robust international demand despite G7 pressures [24]. - China's comprehensive rare earth industry chain, from mining to high-performance magnet manufacturing, provides a competitive edge that is difficult for the G7 to disrupt [26]. Group 4: International Cooperation and Future Outlook - China has engaged in international cooperation, exemplified by a joint exploration agreement with Kazakhstan for a major uranium mine, showcasing its commitment to global resource development [28]. - The article emphasizes China's open yet principled approach to rare earth exports, which has garnered international recognition and support [28]. - The ongoing competition in the rare earth sector is framed as a test of endurance and intelligence, with China prepared for a long-term strategic engagement [30].