金十图示：2025年07月30日（周三）富时中国A50指数成分股午盘收盘行情一览：银行板块、电力股、周期股走强 光大银行 2422.51亿市值 3.94亿成交额 4.10 +0.05(+1.23%) 保险 中国太保 中国人保 中国平安 4 3781.15亿市值 3748.09亿市值 11122.81亿市值 10.91亿成交额 37.49亿成交额 5.18亿成交额 8.55 38.96 61.08 +0.68(+1.78%) +1.59(+2.67%) -0.01(-0.12%) 酿酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 18230.57亿市值 2262.55亿市值 4840.75亿市值 29.38亿成交额 9.14亿成交额 14.87亿成交额 1451.25 185.46 124.71 +12.25(+0.85%) +2.43(+1.33%) +1.19(+0.96%) 米含体 北方华创 寒武纪-U HACO 2918.16亿市值 3291.96亿市值 2546.76亿市值 19.92亿成交额 12.06亿成交额 25.70亿成交额 352.93 697.54 141.63 +8.14(+2.36%) -13.2 ...

Core Insights - The white liquor market has experienced a collective price decline since 2025, affecting both high-end and mid-range products due to a cooling consumption environment and high inventory pressures [1][15][16] - The South China region, particularly the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, has shown significant price differentiation and a notable decline in retail prices for various white liquor products [1][2][3] Market Performance - More than half of the monitored products have seen a price drop since the beginning of the year, with high-end products being the most affected [2][15] - Among 21 monitored products, 15 experienced a decline in average retail prices, with only 4 showing slight increases and 2 remaining stable [2][3] - The most significant price drop was observed in Feitian Moutai, which fell from approximately 2624 CNY to 2368 CNY, a decrease of 256 CNY [2][3] Price Trends by Product - Feitian Moutai's market price has dropped significantly, with current prices ranging from 2100 to 2400 CNY per bottle, marking a decline of over 15% from its peak [3][15] - Other products in the thousand CNY price range, such as the eighth generation Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573, also saw price reductions, with the eighth generation Wuliangye dropping by 110 CNY [10][15] - Mid-range products like Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ and Guotai Guobiao also experienced price declines, although to a lesser extent compared to high-end products [4][10] Regional Price Dynamics - In Guangzhou, 17 out of 21 products saw price declines, with Feitian Moutai dropping from 2648 CNY to 2305 CNY [7][8] - Shenzhen's market showed a downward trend in retail prices, although some products had inflated prices due to high-end retail channels [9][10] - Dongguan's market exhibited significant price fluctuations influenced by seasonal demand and promotional activities, with Feitian Moutai's price dropping to 2299 CNY during peak sales periods [12][13] Inventory and Market Conditions - The white liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with high inventory levels leading to price pressures across all product categories [15][16] - Approximately 60% of companies are facing price inversion, particularly in the 800 to 1500 CNY price range, which is experiencing the most significant downward pressure [15][16] - The average inventory turnover days have increased to 900 days, indicating a challenging market environment for producers [15][16] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue facing challenges as companies balance between maintaining prices and expanding market share [17][18] - The introduction of new statistical methods and the inclusion of additional cities like Foshan in price monitoring may provide a clearer picture of market dynamics moving forward [20][21]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a general rise in liquor stocks, with notable increases in stocks such as JiuGuiJiu and LuZhouLaoJiao, which rose over 2% [1] - Other companies like YingJiaGongJiu, YangHe股份, ShunXin Agriculture, GuJingGongJiu, and JinShiYuan experienced increases of over 1%, while Moutai, KouZiJiao, and WuLiangYe rose nearly 1% [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performance includes LuZhouLaoJiao with a rise of 2.17% and a total market value of 186.9 billion, while JiuGuiJiu increased by 2.07% with a market value of 16.1 billion [2] - YingJiaGongJiu rose by 1.48% with a market value of 34.5 billion, and YangHe股份 increased by 1.46% with a market value of 103.8 billion [2] - Other notable performances include GuJingGongJiu up by 1.42% (market value 75.7 billion), and ShanXiFenJiu up by 1.25% (market value 226.1 billion) [2]

财经早察主播黎雨辰 抛售比亚迪（002594），减持五粮液（000858），转头又抢购中际旭创（300308）、新易盛 （300502），还在泡泡玛特上拉拉扯扯……公募基金经理最近都在哪些领域"掘金"？跟你的投资思路撞 上了吗？ 伴随七月底公募基金二季报披露完毕，让我们一起看看职业买手的调仓动态背后，藏着哪些"擒牛"共 识。 首先，作为AI领域的"水电煤"，算力是二季度主动权益基金加仓最猛的行业。在二季度主动偏股基金增 持市值排名前十的个股中，算力概念股占了四席：中际旭创、新易盛、沪电股份（002463）和胜宏科技 （300476）。前两家是光模块龙头，后两家则是PCB(印制电路板)的核心供应商。 不过对于像泡泡玛特这样曾热极一时的"网红"股，是继续持有还是落袋为安，基金经理们也并非毫无分 歧。二季度，刘格菘等知名基金经理还在加仓泡泡玛特，但整体来看，公募基金持有的泡泡玛特股票数 量从一季度末的6800多万股，降到二季度末的3300多万股，差不多减了一半。 相比前几个领域，传统行业在二季度就明显有点"失宠"。统计显示，二季度基金经理在食品饮料、汽 车、机械行业上主动减仓最多。其中，比亚迪是被公募基金减持最多的 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市値 | 年初至今涨幅%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000568 | 泸州老窖 | 来 | 2.17 | 1869亿 | 2.64 | | 000799 | 酒鬼酒 | 4 | 2.07 | 161亿 | -10.64 | | 603198 | 迎驾贡酒 | 1 | 1.48 | 345亿 | -16.97 | | 002304 | 洋河股份 | -06- | 1.46 | 1038亿 | -11.98 | | 000596 | 古井贡酒 | 来 | 1.42 | 757亿 | -13.74 | | 600809 | 山西汾酒 | 来 | 1.25 | 2261亿 | 4.15 | | 000860 | 顺鑫农业 | 张 | 1.19 | 119亿 | -16.46 | | 603369 | 今世缘 | | 1.10 | 505亿 | -7.98 | | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | 1 | 0.94 | 18247亿 | -2.82 | | 603589 | 口子窖 | -306- | 0.89 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is currently undergoing a deep adjustment period, with overall market performance being sluggish and many companies reporting significant declines in revenue and profit [1][3][4]. Industry Overview - The liquor industry is experiencing a noticeable slowdown in growth, with many companies reporting declines in both revenue and net profit, and some even turning from profit to loss [1][3]. - The adjustment in the industry is characterized by a systemic pressure affecting all companies, rather than isolated operational issues [3][4]. Company Performance - Jiu Gui Jiu's net profit for the first half of the year is expected to be between 8 million and 12 million yuan, a decline of 90.08% to 93.39% compared to 121 million yuan in the same period last year, with revenue expected to drop by approximately 43% to around 560 million yuan [1]. - Shui Jing Fang anticipates a net profit of 105 million yuan for the first half of the year, down 56.52% year-on-year, with revenue expected to decrease by 12.84% to 1.498 billion yuan, despite a 14.54% increase in sales volume [1]. - Shunxin Agriculture expects a net profit of 155 million to 195 million yuan, a decline of 53.85% to 63.32% year-on-year, due to decreased sales volume impacting overall revenue and profit levels [3]. - Jinzhongzi forecasts a net loss of 60 million to 90 million yuan for the first half of the year, attributing this to the industry's deep adjustment and ongoing decline in production [3]. Market Dynamics - The industry faces multiple challenges, including shrinking consumption scenarios, soft market demand, and a shift in consumer preferences towards fruit wines and low-alcohol beverages [4]. - High inventory levels and serious price inversion issues are exacerbating industry pressures, with over 58% of distributors reporting increased inventory and more than half facing price inversion problems [4]. - The average inventory turnover days have reached 900 days, an increase of 10% year-on-year, indicating significant supply chain inefficiencies [4]. Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges, leading companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are still achieving relatively stable growth, with Moutai reporting a 9% year-on-year revenue increase [7]. - The low-alcohol beverage market is emerging as a new growth point, with companies exploring new product lines and sales channels [7]. - Industry experts predict a full recovery by 2027, with new development opportunities arising in 2028, suggesting that patience and understanding are needed for the industry's transformation [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy is a significant step towards addressing the declining birth rate in China, with a basic annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child for families with children under three years old starting from January 1, 2025 [2][5]. Group 1: Policy Details - The subsidy will be provided annually and is exempt from personal income tax, not counted as family income for social assistance evaluations [2]. - Families with children born before January 1, 2025, will receive a prorated subsidy based on the number of eligible months [2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The cost of raising children in China is significantly high, with a ratio of 6.3 compared to GDP, surpassing many developed countries [3][4]. - The subsidy of 300 yuan per month is seen as insufficient to alleviate the overall financial burden of raising children, but it is a step towards improving birth rates [5][7]. Group 3: Market Reaction and Investment Opportunities - Following the announcement of the subsidy, the infant and child-related stocks showed a slight increase, indicating market optimism [9]. - The policy is expected to have a broader impact on consumer spending, particularly in the baby and education sectors, suggesting potential investment opportunities in related ETFs [12][14]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The increase in birth rates is anticipated to be a long-term process requiring a combination of supportive policies beyond just financial subsidies [7][11]. - The childcare subsidy is viewed as a starting point for a more comprehensive approach to population policy, which may include enhancements in education and social support systems [11].

Core Viewpoint - The innovative sales model of a small noodle shop in Shanghai, which combines low-cost noodles with high-end liquor sold by the cup, highlights a potential growth opportunity in the struggling liquor market, particularly for premium brands like Moutai [2][10]. Group 1: Innovative Consumption Model - The noodle shop sells a bowl of noodles for 3 yuan and offers premium liquors like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Jian Nan Chun by the cup, creating a unique consumption experience [3][5]. - The pricing for the liquors is set at 48 yuan for Moutai, 24 yuan for Wuliangye, and 12 yuan for Jian Nan Chun, with each cup containing 10 milliliters [7]. - This model allows consumers who cannot afford a full bottle to experience high-end liquor, thus breaking the traditional consumption barriers associated with premium brands [5][9]. Group 2: Market Context and Challenges - The liquor industry is currently facing significant challenges, including a downturn in consumption and strict regulations, which have led to a decline in sales [10][12]. - The implementation of stringent alcohol bans since May has severely impacted traditional consumption venues, leading to a drop in market activity [10][12]. - Despite the current difficulties, there are signs of potential recovery, with large-scale investment projects and urban renewal initiatives expected to stimulate demand in the liquor market [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the food and beverage industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.74% increase last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.95 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 first-level sectors [12]. - The report highlights a rebound opportunity in the liquor sector, particularly for high-end and regional leading brands, as market sentiment improves and policy catalysts emerge [7][12]. - The beer sector is expected to recover this year, despite short-term disruptions from delivery platforms, with low inventory levels and favorable cost trends [7][12]. - The snack segment shows high growth potential, driven by strong categories and new channels, with specific products like konjac gaining popularity [7][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the dairy sector, where prices are stabilizing, and a potential turning point in raw milk prices is anticipated [7][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was characterized by a 0.74% increase, with pre-processed foods and health products performing relatively well, rising by 1.97% and 1.88% respectively [12][17]. - The top five gainers included *ST Xifa, Jiaoda Anli, Huang Shang Huang, Tianyou Dejiu, and Tianrun Dairy, with increases ranging from 5.92% to 9.89% [12][17]. 2. Price Trends - As of July 27, 2024, the batch price for 2024 Moutai (scattered) was 1900 yuan, reflecting a weekly increase of 10 yuan and a monthly increase of 50 yuan [21]. - The beer production for June 2025 was reported at 4.12 million kiloliters, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [26]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The beverage manufacturing sector's profit decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 814.69 billion yuan, a 1.9% increase [53]. - Jiangsu province's liquor production in the first half of 2025 was 81,700 kiloliters, down 15% year-on-year [53]. 4. Company Updates - Yanjing Beer announced a cash dividend of 1.90 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 536 million yuan, with the record date set for July 28 [55]. - Jiu Gui Jiu declared a cash dividend of 6.00 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to 195 million yuan, with the record date on July 30 [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [5][6][79]. Core Views - The second quarter saw a decrease in the allocation ratio for the liquor sector, reflecting weak fundamental expectations. The white liquor index rose by 1.0%, but the allocation ratio for actively managed equity funds fell by 2.07 percentage points to 4.50% [2][14]. - The beverage sector is entering a peak season, with strong performance expected from leading companies in basic condiments. The report recommends focusing on companies that are accelerating nationalization and platformization, such as Dongpeng Beverage [3][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector - The allocation ratio for the liquor sector has decreased, indicating weak expectations for fundamentals. The white liquor price index remained stable at 100.00, with a slight increase in the index [2][12]. - Major liquor companies are focusing on market health, with strategies aimed at destocking and promoting sales in the short term, while emphasizing consumer engagement and internationalization in the long term [2][14]. - Recommended stocks include leading companies with proven risk resilience like Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as well as those with improving digital strategies like Luzhou Laojiao [2][14]. 2. Consumer Goods - The beer sector is entering a peak season, with a slight decrease in fund allocation ratios. Yanjing Beer is prioritized for recommendation due to ongoing internal reforms [3][15]. - The snack sector has seen an increase in fund allocation, with a focus on companies like Salted Fish and Wanchen Group. The report highlights the importance of product differentiation and channel penetration [3][16]. - In the condiment sector, leading companies are expected to perform steadily, with a focus on the upcoming mid-year performance reports. Recommended stocks include Haitian Flavoring and Yihai International [3][17]. 3. Frozen Foods and Dairy - The frozen food sector is stable, with companies actively developing new products to cater to both B-end and C-end markets. Recommendations include stable operators like Anjijia and Qianwei Central Kitchen [3][18]. - The dairy sector is expected to recover gradually, with potential policy catalysts and improved supply-demand dynamics anticipated in 2025. The report recommends focusing on leading dairy companies with a safety margin in valuations [3][19]. 4. Beverage Sector - The beverage industry is expected to maintain its growth momentum, particularly in the no-sugar tea and energy drink segments. Dongpeng Beverage is highlighted for its strong performance, with a reported revenue increase of 36% year-on-year [3][20].