Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities predicts a significant decline in the third-quarter performance of Wuliangye, forecasting a 30% drop in revenue and a 45% drop in net profit year-on-year, which contrasts sharply with predictions from other leading brokerages [2][3][6]. Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is experiencing a period of adjustment, with overall demand under pressure despite some month-on-month improvements in August due to better policy execution [3][6]. - High-end liquor brands like Moutai are expected to show resilience, while mid-tier brands are struggling, particularly in business demand [3]. Company Performance Predictions - Wuliangye's third-quarter revenue is estimated at 120.9 billion yuan, down 30% year-on-year, with net profit expected to be 32.3 billion yuan, down 45% [4][6]. - Other companies in the industry, such as Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao, are projected to perform better, with Moutai's revenue expected to grow by 5% [4][11]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Wuliangye's average price for its flagship product has decreased to approximately 820 yuan per bottle, down 100 yuan since the beginning of the year, indicating weak demand [6][9]. - The report suggests that Wuliangye may need to adjust its strategy to stabilize product prices and maintain dealer confidence amid declining sales [6][9]. Competitive Landscape - GF Securities posits a potential shift in market positioning, suggesting that Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao may be "switching places" in terms of market performance, with Luzhou Laojiao gaining ground due to effective strategies [7][9]. - The report highlights that since 2021, the white liquor industry has faced challenges, with price declines affecting both Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, but the latter has managed to leverage its digital capabilities and market presence to improve its standing [9][10]. Long-term Outlook - GF Securities anticipates that Wuliangye's net profit will continue to decline in the coming years, projecting a drop to 236.5 billion yuan by 2026, while other top brands are expected to see profit growth [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye Group has publicly exposed a list of 46 unauthorized online stores selling its products, raising consumer awareness about potential risks associated with purchasing from these channels [2][3] Group 1: Unauthorized Sales Channels - The unauthorized stores are selling Wuliangye products without official permission, disrupting online sales order and posing multiple risks to consumers [2] - Notable unauthorized sellers include well-known platforms such as Douyin, JD.com, Kuaishou, Meituan, Pinduoduo, and Taobao [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Risks - Purchasing from unauthorized channels may lead to four main issues: inability to verify product authenticity, lack of quality assurance, no access to official after-sales service, and difficulties in subsequent rights protection [3] - The list of unauthorized sellers includes popular liquor sales stores like Waimasongjiu and 1919 Liquor Supply [3] Group 3: Authorized Sales Channels - Wuliangye has released a list of 55 authorized e-commerce channels to help consumers identify legitimate sources, including official flagship stores on JD.com, Tmall, Douyin, and the Wuliangye official mall on WeChat [3] - Third-party authorized stores include Jiuxian.com and GeDe Old Wine Shop, covering various platforms and retail channels [3] Group 4: Brand Initiatives - The brand will continue to offer free product authentication services and encourages consumers to report any suspected infringement by calling the official customer service hotline [3] - This initiative coincides with the upcoming "Double Eleven" shopping festival, aiming to combat online counterfeiting and provide consumers with important shopping references [3]

Core Insights - The liquor sector experienced a slight increase of 0.14% on October 21, with *ST Rock leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.33, up 1.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13077.32, up 2.06% [1] Stock Performance Summary - *ST Rock (600696) closed at 5.84, with a rise of 5.04% and a trading volume of 47,600 shares, totaling 27.11 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Tianyoude Liquor (002646) at 9.80, up 1.34%, and Qingdao Wenzhou (000995) at 13.97, up 1.31% [1] - Major stocks like Luzhou Laojiao (000568) and Kweichow Moutai (600519) saw minor increases of 0.80% and 0.30%, respectively, with Moutai's closing price at 1462.26 and a trading volume of 25,400 shares, totaling 3.73 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net inflow of 12.19 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 15.9 million yuan [2] - Conversely, speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 172 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Kweichow Moutai (600519) had a significant net inflow of 1.26 billion yuan from major funds, while it faced a net outflow of 1.26 billion yuan from speculative funds [3] - Wuliangye (000858) reported a net inflow of 29.16 million yuan from major funds, but a net outflow of 39.27 million yuan from retail investors [3] - *ST Rock (600696) showed a net inflow of 6.38 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors withdrew 5.52 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the liquor sector, particularly the white liquor stocks, indicates a potential recovery as valuations have significantly declined and market expectations are low, suggesting a favorable environment for quality assets to rebound [1] Market Performance - On October 21, the three major indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3916.33 points, up 1.36% [1] - The white liquor sector closed at 2298.72, with a slight increase of 0.90%, and 14 out of the white liquor stocks experienced gains [1] Individual Stock Performance - Kweichow Moutai closed at 1462.26 CNY per share, up 0.30% [1] - Wuliangye closed at 120.52 CNY per share, up 0.05% [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu closed at 189.72 CNY per share, down 0.97% [1] - Luzhou Laojiao closed at 134.21 CNY per share, up 0.80% [1] - Yanghe Brewery closed at 69.95 CNY per share, down 0.33% [1] Industry Insights - According to a report from Founder Securities, the 113th Autumn Sugar and Wine Fair was held in Nanjing [1] - The white liquor sector has undergone a prolonged correction, leading to a significant drop in valuations, with a clear bottoming logic for quality assets [1] - In the context of renewed external disturbances and the increasing importance of domestic demand, the sector is expected to experience a valuation switch and recovery trend [1]

Group 1 - Huang Zitao's sanitary napkin brand has established an e-commerce company named Hangzhou Duozi E-commerce Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 1 million RMB, focusing on internet live streaming services and sales of maternal and infant products [1] - The company is wholly owned by Zhejiang Duowei Nursing Products Co., Ltd., which is jointly held by Hangzhou Hengyan Technology Co., Ltd., Hangzhou Longzelin Network Technology Co., Ltd., and Huang Zitao [1] Group 2 - A short video platform account "Xuelianhua18133" was found to have posted false disaster videos, leading to a warning from the Xining Internet Information Office [3][5] - The account's actions violated regulations related to the dissemination of rumors and false information, resulting in administrative penalties and a requirement to delete the false video [5] Group 3 - Wuliangye Group has published a notice identifying 46 unauthorized stores selling its products on various e-commerce platforms, warning consumers about potential risks [6][8] - The notice emphasizes the importance of purchasing Wuliangye products through official channels to ensure product authenticity and consumer rights [8] Group 4 - From January to September, China's online retail sales reached 1,128.3 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, with physical goods online retail sales at 915.3 billion RMB, a 6.5% increase [8] - Guizhou Xijiu Co., Ltd. issued a notice to consumers regarding unauthorized stores selling its products online, listing 215 official e-commerce channels and authorized stores [10] Group 5 - Douyin's live streaming sales on October 20 saw "Yuhui Tongxing" achieving over 75 million RMB in sales with more than 30 million viewers, while iQOO's new phone launch also generated over 50 million RMB in sales [12]

Core Viewpoint - During the "Double 11" promotional period, Wuliangye issued a warning regarding unauthorized sales of its products on various online platforms, highlighting potential risks for consumers [1][4]. Group 1: Unauthorized Sales and Risks - Wuliangye identified 46 unauthorized online stores selling its products, including well-known platforms like Douyin and Meituan [4]. - The company emphasized that products from unauthorized channels lack verification of authenticity, quality assurance, official after-sales service, and legal rights protection for consumers [4][10]. Group 2: Market Context and Pricing Issues - The rise of e-commerce in the liquor industry has led to rampant issues such as low pricing, false advertising, and counterfeit products, which infringe on consumer rights [4]. - Since 2025, wholesale prices of liquor have been declining, putting pressure on the pricing structure of the entire industry, especially with the upcoming "Double 11" shopping festival [8]. Group 3: Authorized Sales Channels - Wuliangye announced 55 authorized e-commerce sales channels, including major platforms like JD.com, Tmall, and Pinduoduo, to ensure consumers purchase genuine products [9]. - Consumers are encouraged to verify authorized stores through Wuliangye's official website and to request invoices for traceability [10].

Group 1 - The food ETF (515710) showed stable performance with a price increase of 0.16% and a trading volume of 11.51 million yuan, bringing the fund's latest scale to 1.313 billion yuan [1] - Key performing stocks included Yunnan Energy Investment, Luzhou Laojiao, and New Dairy Industry, with increases of 1.8%, 1.25%, and 1.11% respectively [1] - Conversely, Yanjing Beer, New Nuo Wei, and Miao Ke Lan Duo experienced declines of 4.56%, 2.32%, and 1.64% respectively [1] Group 2 - Data from the double festival period indicated strong liquor consumption, with JD Seven Fresh reporting a 109% year-on-year increase in liquor sales, and Douyin's liquor sales up 58% month-on-month [1] - The release of the twelve fragrance standard sample aims to further standardize the industry's quality system [1] - Guizhou Moutai is enhancing brand experience through a wine tourism integration project, promoting innovation in consumption scenarios [1] Group 3 - According to Guotai Junan, the food and beverage industry is primarily driven by growth, with beverage leaders maintaining structural prosperity under the influence of major products [1] - The white liquor industry is experiencing a "low expectation, weak reality" state, with the third-quarter reports being a crucial observation window [1] - As external factors diminish and liquor companies adjust strategies, the industry may enter a substantial destocking cycle, with channel confidence expected to improve [1] Group 4 - According to招商证券, Q3 white liquor sales improved month-on-month, but the financial reports continue to show clearing, with government and business demand under pressure [2] - The performance of consumer goods is mixed, with snacks, beverages, pets, and health products showing good momentum, while traditional consumer goods like dairy, condiments, and beer remain flat [2] - The cost side shows a continued decline in raw material prices, although the rate of decrease is narrowing, while packaging prices have increased month-on-month [2] Group 5 - The food ETF (515710) and its linked funds passively track a segmented food index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Wuliangye, Guizhou Moutai, Yili, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Haitian Flavoring, Dongpeng Beverage, Yanghe, Jinshiyuan, and Gujing Gongjiu [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current adjustment in the liquor industry is nearing its end, with household banquet scenarios expected to recover faster than business demand, and leading companies continuing to enhance management efficiency to increase market share [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Adjustment Analysis - The liquor industry has experienced two rounds of adjustments, with the first from 2013 to 2016 driven by declining profits in industrial enterprises and reduced real estate investment, impacting business consumption scenarios [1]. - The second round, starting in 2022, has seen a continuous contraction in business demand, influenced by government policies promoting frugality, but the impact on liquor demand is less severe compared to the previous round [2]. - The current adjustment has lasted five quarters, with expectations for recovery by the second quarter of 2026, based on historical patterns [2]. Group 2: Market Changes and Investment Implications - The top six liquor companies account for 48.1% of total sales, indicating enhanced industry self-regulation and a more moderate adjustment process due to government guidance [3]. - The expansion of sauce liquor production capacity has not yet translated into revenue share, but it is expected to gain traction in the competitive landscape [3]. - Companies are improving their market value management strategies, increasing dividend payouts, and utilizing flexible buyback methods, which will enhance investor returns [3].

Core Insights - The article highlights the historical significance and innovative journey of Wuliangye in the low-alcohol liquor segment, marking its 47-year legacy since the introduction of its first low-alcohol product in 1978 [1][3]. Historical Significance - Wuliangye was a pioneer in recognizing the international market's shift towards low-alcohol beverages, initiating technical advancements as early as 1972, while competitors focused on high-alcohol products [3]. - The introduction of the 39° and 29° Wuliangye products in 1978 showcased a breakthrough in maintaining flavor while reducing alcohol content, addressing industry challenges and setting a precedent for low-alcohol liquor [4]. Technological Innovation - The production process of the new 29° Wuliangye involves a blend of traditional methods and modern technology, including a computer blending system and a unique three-step process: base liquor selection, aging, and alcohol reduction [5]. - Wuliangye employs innovative techniques such as "layered distillation" and "quality-based selection" to enhance flavor retention, ensuring that the new product maintains the rich aroma characteristic of its higher-alcohol variants [5]. Market Positioning and Future Outlook - The launch of the 29° Wuliangye aligns with emerging consumer trends favoring lighter drinking experiences, as indicated in the 2024 China Alcohol Consumption White Paper [8]. - The product's debut in Europe has been met with enthusiasm, suggesting a promising market potential, particularly as it resonates with local drinking preferences [8]. - Wuliangye's commitment to continuous innovation and its ability to adapt to consumer demands have established a strong brand presence and technical advantage in the low-alcohol liquor market [8].

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye has been awarded the EFQM Global Award (Seven Diamonds) for its outstanding sustainable practices in economic, environmental, and social aspects, marking the highest score for a Chinese company since the award's inception [3][10]. Group 1: Awards and Recognition - Wuliangye received the highest certification of global excellence performance, the EFQM Global Award (Seven Diamonds), and also won the "United Nations Sustainable Development Goals Implementation and Corporate Performance Excellence Award" [3][6]. - The EFQM Global Award is recognized as one of the highest honors in the field of excellence performance, with only 14 out of over 200 companies evaluated this year achieving such recognition [8][10]. Group 2: Sustainable Development Practices - Wuliangye integrates sustainable development deeply into its corporate strategy, focusing on a high-quality development path characterized by "ecology, quality, culture, digitalization, and transparency" [5][11]. - The company emphasizes a collaborative approach to economic, environmental, and social development, establishing a unique sustainable development framework [8][11]. - Wuliangye has implemented a comprehensive lifecycle quality control system, enhancing product quality and promoting steady growth in capacity, brand, and economic benefits [13]. Group 3: Industry Leadership - As a leading representative of Chinese liquor, Wuliangye aims to set a benchmark for sustainable development in the industry, showcasing its commitment to excellence in management and sustainable practices [10][11]. - The company aspires to align with world-class standards, driving management innovation and industry upgrades, while contributing to the sustainable development of the Chinese liquor industry [13].