| 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 | 成交量 | 成交金额 | 买方营业部 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (元) | (万股/万份) | (万元) | | | | 2025-09-08 | 001215 | 千味央厨 | 33.23 | 23.59 | 783.90 招商证券交易单元 | | 中信证券股份有限 | | | | | | | (052300) | | 公司苏州分公司 | 9月8日，千味央厨大宗交易成交23.59万股，成交额783.9万元，占当日总成交额的4.3%，成交价33.23元，较市场收盘价 33.23元持平。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6] Core Viewpoints - The company reported a total revenue of 886 million yuan for H1 2025, a decrease of 0.72% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 35.79 million yuan, down 39.67%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 34.09 million yuan, down 41.94% [2][4] - In Q2 2025, the total revenue was 415 million yuan, a decline of 3.12%, with a net profit of 14.34 million yuan, down 42.05%, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 13.12 million yuan, down 47.63% [2][4] - The competitive environment is challenging, leading to a decrease in profitability, with the net profit margin dropping by 2.61 percentage points to 4.04% in H1 2025 and by 2.32 percentage points to 3.45% in Q2 2025 [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2025 total revenue was 886 million yuan, with a breakdown showing direct sales at 434 million yuan (up 5.31%) and distribution sales at 445 million yuan (down 6.40%) [9] - The main product categories saw revenue changes: staple foods at 413 million yuan (down 9.10%), snacks at 197 million yuan (down 6.57%), baked goods at 205 million yuan (up 11.02%), and frozen prepared dishes at 65 million yuan (up 67.31%) [9] - Online sales increased by 44.87%, reaching 45 million yuan, accounting for 5.08% of total revenue [9] Strategic Response - The company is implementing a multi-faceted strategy to address challenges, including collaboration with distributors, focusing on successful products, enhancing online and offline channels, and optimizing channel structures [9] - The company aims to strengthen its presence in the B-end market while supporting distributors in expanding into new retail areas [9] Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestion - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 68 million, 75 million, and 86 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.70, 0.77, and 0.88 yuan [9] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected at 46, 42, and 37 times for the respective years [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is currently experiencing a transitional phase in its product offerings, with a focus on expanding new retail channels. The report anticipates improvements in market demand [4][6] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 886 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 36 million yuan, down 39.67% [7] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 415 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 3.12%, while net profit was 14 million yuan, down 42.05% [7] Product Performance - Traditional products are undergoing a painful iteration period, while baked goods and dish categories are performing well. Revenue from staple foods decreased by 9.10% to 413 million yuan, and snacks fell by 6.57% to 197 million yuan due to intensified market competition [7] - The baking category saw revenue growth of 11.02% to 205 million yuan, attributed to product structure adjustments and new offerings for key clients. The dish category and others experienced a significant increase of 67.31% to 65 million yuan, driven by rising demand for prepared dishes [7] Channel Performance - New retail channels are showing rapid revenue growth, while the small B channel is under short-term pressure. Direct sales revenue for H1 2025 was 434 million yuan, up 5.31%, with the largest client contributing 189 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.28% [7] - The company has secured national procurement contracts with major retail chains like Hema and Walmart, leading to a 349.66% year-on-year increase in revenue from the fourth-largest client [7] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 23.59%, down 1.62 percentage points, with Q2 gross margin at 22.66%, down 2.29 percentage points. This decline is due to a lower proportion of high-margin staple food revenue and increased competition [7] - Selling expenses for H1 2025 were 6.87% of revenue, up 1.35 percentage points, primarily due to rising employee compensation and e-commerce promotion costs [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts profit forecasts, projecting net profits attributable to shareholders of 88 million yuan, 100 million yuan, and 113 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.90, 1.03, and 1.16 yuan [7][8] - The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 36.16, 31.57, and 28.09 for the next three years [7]

Core Viewpoint - The enthusiasm for the prepared food industry appears to be waning, as several leading companies report disappointing financial results, indicating a shift towards a new adjustment phase in the industry [1][4]. Financial Performance - Weizhi Xiang reported a revenue of 343 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, but its net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 24.5% to 31.95 million yuan, with a gross margin decrease of 4.02 percentage points to 20.83% [3]. - Qianwei Yangchu's revenue decreased by 0.7% to 886 million yuan, with a net profit drop of 39.7% to 35.79 million yuan [3]. - Anjixin's revenue slightly increased by 0.8% to 7.604 billion yuan, but its net profit fell by 15.79% to 676 million yuan, marking the first decline in interim net profit since its listing [3]. - The growth rate of Anjixin's prepared food business slowed to 9.4%, down from previous high growth rates of 29.84% and 10.76% [3]. Industry Challenges - Rising raw material costs and intensified competition are common concerns highlighted by these companies, impacting their profit margins [3][4]. - The competition has led to a decline in sales volume and increased pressure on profit margins due to promotional activities [4][6]. Market Dynamics - Over 85% of prepared food products are sold to B-end customers, primarily chain restaurants and hotels, which are increasingly focused on cost-effectiveness [6]. - Qianwei Yangchu reported a reduction in the number of distributors from 1,953 to 1,591, a net decrease of 362 [6]. - Weizhi Xiang also experienced a net decrease of 160 distributors, bringing the total to 2,917 [6]. Consumer Perception - Despite some consumer awareness of prepared foods, there remains a negative perception regarding taste and convenience, indicating a need for improved brand trust and consumer education [7][8]. Regulatory Environment - The prepared food market is experiencing rapid growth, with a market size of 485 billion yuan in 2024, expected to reach 749 billion yuan by 2026, alongside a significant increase in the number of registered companies [10]. - New regulations have been introduced to enhance food safety standards, which may raise the entry barriers for companies lacking brand recognition and operational scale [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 889 million yuan in H1 2025, a slight decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 40 million yuan, down 39.7% [1] - The revenue from baking and cooked dishes showed positive growth, while new retail channels experienced significant growth [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its product lines and sales channels, particularly in the B2B and new retail sectors, to increase revenue [5] Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, the main food and snack categories accounted for 47% and 22% of revenue, respectively, generating 410 million yuan and 200 million yuan, both showing declines of 9.1% and 6.6% year-on-year due to market competition and product lifecycle impacts [2] - The baking and frozen prepared dishes categories, which accounted for 23% and 7% of revenue, respectively, generated 210 million yuan and 70 million yuan, with increases of 11.0% and 67.3% year-on-year [2] Sales Model Performance - In H1 2025, the revenue from the distribution and direct sales models was 450 million yuan and 430 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -6.4% and +5.3% [3] - The increase in direct sales revenue was primarily driven by partnerships with major retail chains and a significant rise in online sales, which grew by 44.9% year-on-year to 40 million yuan [3] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 23.6%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points, attributed to the faster growth of lower-margin product categories [3] - The net profit margin fell to 4.0%, down 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, due to increased expenses related to new retail channels and online sales [3] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 1.94 billion yuan, 2.10 billion yuan, and 2.26 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 3.6%, 8.5%, and 7.4% respectively [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 80 million yuan, 100 million yuan, and 110 million yuan for the same period, with a slight decline in 2025 followed by growth in subsequent years [5]

Core Viewpoint - The pre-prepared food industry in China, also known as semi-finished or ready-to-eat meals, is characterized by a diverse range of participants, including specialized manufacturers, agricultural enterprises, and restaurant chains, with significant revenue generation and varying growth rates across companies [3][6]. Industry Overview - The pre-prepared food industry in China includes upstream sectors such as agriculture and food processing, midstream processing companies like Yike Food and Anjuke Food, and downstream distribution channels including e-commerce [1]. - Major players in the industry include Shuanghui Development, Guangming Meat, Yike Food, and Anjuke Food, with annual revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan [3][6]. Company Performance - Shuanghui Development leads the market with a revenue of 595.61 million yuan and a market capitalization nearing 100 billion yuan as of April 22, 2025 [4][6]. - Anjuke Food reported a revenue of 110.77 million yuan with a growth rate of 7.84%, while other companies like Longda Meishi and Guolian Aquatic faced revenue declines of 20.70% and 24.14%, respectively [4][6]. - In the first half of 2024, Anjuke Food's frozen prepared food segment achieved a 13.04% year-on-year growth, contrasting with the overall industry trend of declining revenues [6][7]. Revenue Trends - The overall revenue growth for pre-prepared food companies is expected to be below 10% in 2024, with many companies experiencing revenue declines [3][6]. - The revenue from overseas operations is significant for companies like Sanquan Food, which reported 94.23 billion yuan in 2024, with overseas revenue accounting for 42.86% of total revenue [8]. Market Dynamics - The pre-prepared food industry is characterized by a diverse range of participants, including specialized manufacturers and cross-industry players, indicating a competitive landscape [3][6]. - The industry is facing challenges with revenue growth, as many companies reported negative growth rates in 2024, highlighting the need for strategic adjustments [4][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2][9] Core Viewpoints - Recent policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as the "2025 Shaoxing City Consumption Promotion Policy," are expected to benefit cyclical sectors, particularly in the liquor and restaurant chains [5] - The policy includes subsidies for banquet consumption, which will directly stimulate demand for liquor and benefit suppliers in the banquet consumption chain [5] - The report anticipates that similar policies may be adopted in other regions, which could enhance overall consumer demand and support the recovery of liquor demand and banquet supply chain enterprises [5] - The restaurant industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle but is expected to gradually recover due to ongoing policy support, with specific recommendations for various segments including liquor, restaurant chains, beer, and yellow wine [5] Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown a performance of -7% over the last 12 months, compared to 2% for the CSI 300 and 11% for the Shanghai Composite Index [4] Policy Impact - The Shaoxing policy provides tiered subsidies for banquet consumption, with a maximum of 5,000 yuan for events with five tables or more and total spending exceeding 10,000 yuan [5] - The policy is expected to stimulate banquet consumption during the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, benefiting liquor demand [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: - Liquor: Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Shede Liquor, Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinshiyuan [5] - Restaurant Chains: Hai Tian Wei Ye, Anji Food, Angel Yeast, and Qianwei Central Kitchen [5] - Beer: Qingdao Beer, China Resources Beer, and Yanjing Beer [5] - Yellow Wine: Kuaijishan and Guyue Longshan [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huafu Securities indicates that Qianwei Yangchu's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year is 36 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.67%, with Q2 showing a net profit of 14 million yuan, down 42.05% year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue in various categories: staple foods 413 million yuan, snacks 197 million yuan, baked goods 205 million yuan, and frozen prepared dishes and others 65 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -9.10%, -6.57%, +11.02%, and +67.31% respectively [1] - The company has made significant progress in its baking and prepared dishes business, which has helped offset declines in staple foods and snacks [1] Distribution Channel Changes - The number of distributors decreased by 158 in the southern region and 204 in the northern region during the reporting period [1] - The company is focusing on supermarket adjustments and a big product strategy to amplify growth in baking and dishes [1] Valuation - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 33, 28, and 24 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 20% in stock price compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company has shown initial success in its strategic transformation, although it is currently facing short-term pressure while awaiting demand recovery [1]. - The company reported a revenue of 886 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a slight decrease of 0.72% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 36 million yuan, down 39.67% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its supermarket channel and big product strategy to drive growth in baking and prepared dishes, countering the decline in traditional staple and snack categories [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, revenue from various product categories was as follows: staple foods 413 million yuan (-9.10%), snacks 197 million yuan (-6.57%), baked goods 205 million yuan (+11.02%), and frozen prepared dishes 65 million yuan (+67.31%) [1]. - The company's gross margin for Q2 2025 was 22.66%, a decrease of 2.29 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to intensified competition in the distribution channel and staple food category [2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting net profits of 91 million yuan, 110 million yuan, and 125 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 21%, and 14% [3]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 33 for 2025, 28 for 2026, and 24 for 2027 [3]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 2,322 million yuan in 2024 to 2,642 million yuan by 2027 [7]. - The report indicates an expected EPS of 0.92 yuan for 2025, increasing to 1.10 yuan in 2026 and 1.26 yuan in 2027 [3].

Core Insights - Qianwei Yangchu, known as the "first stock in the catering supply chain," reported a nearly 40% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of 2025 [1] - The number of distributors for the company decreased by 18.54% year-on-year [1] - The company's stock performance has been weak over the past two years, reflecting poor financial results [1] Financial Performance - The net profit for the first half of 2025 saw a significant drop of close to 40% compared to the previous year [1] - The decline in the number of distributors indicates potential challenges in the company's market reach and sales channels [1] Share Buyback Plan - In May 2025, the company announced a share buyback plan, but as of August 31, 2025, no shares have been repurchased [1] - The current stock price is significantly below the buyback price ceiling of 43.21 yuan per share, yet the progress on the buyback has been notably slow compared to 2024 [1] - A representative from the company's securities department stated that they are adhering to the regulations set by the stock exchange and the securities regulatory commission regarding the buyback execution [1]