近日，杭州滨江房产集团股份有限公司新增购地信息，项目位置于浙江省杭州市余杭区余杭区仓前街 道，土地用途为普通商品住房用地(二类)，系杭政储出[2025]88号，供地方式为挂牌出让，成交价格 183667.0万元，合同签订日期2025年7月29日。 天眼查商业履历信息显示，杭州滨江房产集团股份有限公司，成立于1996年，位于杭州市，是一家以从 事房地产业为主的企业。企业注册资本311144.389万人民币，实缴资本270400万人民币。公司法定代表 人为张洪力。 通过天眼查大数据分析，杭州滨江房产集团股份有限公司共对外投资了397家企业，参与招投标项目237 次，知识产权方面有商标信息49条，专利信息18条，此外企业还拥有行政许可5个。 ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that since September 2024, the central government's clear requirement has been to "stabilize the real estate market and stock market," indicating that the stabilization of the real estate market is crucial for boosting social expectations and facilitating domestic demand circulation [5][48] - The report suggests that high-quality residential properties may experience a development wave due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure [5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.3%, the ChiNext Index by 2.8%, and the CSI 300 Index by 1.7%, while the real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 4.1% [5][8] - The top five stocks in terms of price increase were *ST Nan Zhi (+15.4%), Hainan Airport (+14.5%), Zhangjiang Hi-Tech (+12.4%), Tibet City Investment (+11.8%), and Dayuecheng (+10.6%) [5] Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - For the week of July 19-25, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.69 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 19.4% [15] - In July (up to the week of July 25), new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 5.77 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 28.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.9% [19] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of July 19-25, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 1.95 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 1.8% [31] - In July (up to the week of July 25), second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 6.96 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 3.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.5% [35] Industry News - The State Council announced the "Housing Rental Regulations," marking a new phase of legalization and standardization in the housing rental market [48] - The People's Bank of China reported a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in real estate development loans, indicating a recovery in growth [48] - The Ministry of Finance reported that the revenue from state-owned land transfers in the first half of 2025 was 1.43 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% [48] Company Announcements - China Merchants Shekou issued the first phase of corporate bonds worth 800 million yuan with an interest rate of 1.70% for a term of 3 years [51] - China Jinmao issued the first phase of unsecured medium-term notes worth 2 billion yuan with an interest rate of 2.30% for a term of 3 years [51] - Binhai Group acquired the land use rights for a state-owned construction site in Hangzhou, covering an area of 36,496 square meters with a total price of 1.53 billion yuan [51]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing demand for premium land parcels in core areas of Hangzhou, while non-core areas continue to see low premium transactions [1][5]. Land Auction Summary - On July 29, Hangzhou concluded its fourth batch of land auctions, with three plots totaling 267 acres and a total construction area of 343,700 square meters, fetching a total of 5.035 billion yuan [2]. - The most competitive bidding occurred for the plot in Gongshu District, which was won by Hangzhou Weixing Xingchen Real Estate Co., Ltd. for 1.913 billion yuan, resulting in a floor price of 19,600 yuan per square meter and a premium of 28.13% [2][3]. - The plot in Xihu District was acquired by a consortium including China Resources Land for 2.685 billion yuan at a floor price of 13,092 yuan per square meter [3][4]. - The plot in Linping District was sold to Hangzhou Guanda Real Estate for 437 million yuan, with a floor price of 10,622 yuan per square meter and a minimal premium of 1.16% [4]. Market Trends - The land market in Hangzhou continues to show differentiation, with core area premium plots being highly sought after, while non-core areas experience lower premiums [5]. - Leading real estate companies are focusing on core areas, while smaller firms are shifting towards non-core or even suburban regions [5]. - There is an increasing trend in product competitiveness, with enhancements in usable area and exterior materials, pushing companies to improve their design capabilities [5].

Overview - The aging population and increasing health awareness in China are driving rapid development in the health and wellness real estate market, with the market size reaching 15,510 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 1.51% [1][11] - However, the market is expected to decline to 13,918 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.89%, due to the transition from a new housing era to a stock housing era [1][11] Market Segmentation - Health and wellness real estate products can be categorized into six types: smart health residential communities, active senior communities, health tourism communities/towns, medical and nursing institutions, health complexes, and health industrial parks [2][5] - The main revenue models include property sales, operational services, health and wellness services, elderly care operations, and property leasing [2] Development History - The health and wellness real estate industry in China began in the 1980s, initially focusing on basic medical care and daily assistance for the elderly [6] - The concept of "health and wellness" was proposed in 2010, leading to the establishment of health tourism demonstration bases and the integration of health services with tourism and leisure [6] Current Market Situation - The health and wellness real estate market is experiencing a downturn, with a significant decline in market size anticipated in the coming years [11] - The increasing elderly population, projected to reach 21,969 million by 2024, is creating a substantial demand for health and wellness services [9] Competitive Landscape - Major real estate companies such as Poly Developments, Greentown China, and China Resources Land are actively investing in the health and wellness sector [13][16] - Poly Developments has established a comprehensive "three-in-one" elderly care system, covering professional care, cognitive care, and travel elderly care [13][15] Future Trends - The health and wellness real estate sector is expected to focus on creating age-friendly communities that cater to both elderly and younger populations, emphasizing a vibrant community atmosphere [21] - There will be a greater emphasis on location selection, favoring suburban areas or satellite cities that offer a balance of natural surroundings and urban connectivity [21]

Key Points - The report highlights a selection of stocks for July, including companies such as 滨江集团 (Binjiang Group) and 顺丰控股 (SF Holding) as part of the recommended investment portfolio [1] - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a gradual appreciation of the RMB against the backdrop of easing trade policy uncertainties between the US and China, which enhances the competitiveness of Chinese exports [2][6] - The report notes a slight decrease in the overall activity of mergers and acquisitions in the A-share market, with a total of 66 disclosed transactions amounting to 5233.44 billion RMB, indicating a trend towards structural reorganization despite a decrease in the number of major deals [12] - In the nuclear fusion sector, significant advancements have been made in China's nuclear fusion technology, which is expected to benefit from ongoing investments and the development of related industrial chains [13][15] - The report discusses the emergence of a new market for AI Infra catalyzed quartz fiber cloth, with the company 菲利华 (Philips) leveraging its full industry chain advantages to gain a first-mover advantage in the electronics fabric sector [17][18]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 如何看待反内卷对地产的间接影响？ ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Tablary] 地产行业属性与传统产能概念差别很大，直接出台相关反内卷政策的概率不高，但也会受到一 些间接影响。反内卷一定程度上将缓和物价下行压力，有助于降低实际利率，但可能对生产、 就业和收入等总量数据造成一定压力。关键还是需求端扩张性政策的配合，既提升居民就业和 收入预期，反内卷又降低实际利率，如此方能更有效地提振地产需求；但如果没有收入提升预 期，物价的提升反而会压制实际可支配收入，提振地产需求依赖总需求扩张引致的良性通胀， 而非供给侧优化之下的成本上涨。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 如何看待反内卷对地产的间接影响？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标一定程度上对市场预期有所提振， ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting a potential rebound in the market due to upcoming policy support and low valuations in the sector [6]. Core Insights - The A-share real estate sector saw a weekly increase of +4.1%, ranking 7th among various sectors, while the Hong Kong real estate sector increased by +4.2%, ranking 6th [2][16]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in 300 cities was reported at 15%, with a total land area sold of 667 million square meters, reflecting a 10% week-on-week increase but a 34% year-on-year decrease [2][27]. - The newly implemented Housing Rental Regulations aim to enhance rental rights and improve the rental market by regulating rental activities and promoting equal rights for renters [5][15]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report highlights that 47 cities sold a total of 291 million square meters of commercial housing, with a week-on-week increase of 15% and a year-on-year increase of 2% [3][33]. - In June, new home prices decreased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a slight expansion in the decline [3][33]. Land Transactions - The report notes that the recent land auction in Shanghai resulted in the highest floor price for residential land in the country, with a floor price of 200,257 yuan per square meter for the Xujiahui plot [4][13]. - The top five companies in terms of land acquisition amounts include China Overseas, Greentown China, Poly Developments, Jianfa Real Estate, and Binjiang Group, with respective acquisition amounts of 54.2 billion, 52.8 billion, 41.4 billion, 35.6 billion, and 34.7 billion yuan [27][30]. Rental Market Regulations - The newly established Housing Rental Regulations consist of 7 chapters and 50 articles, focusing on standardizing rental activities and enhancing the rights of renters [5][15]. - The regulations support the revitalization of old factories and commercial properties for rental purposes and establish a monitoring mechanism for rental prices [5][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks that are well-positioned to benefit from potential policy support, particularly developers with strong positions in core first- and second-tier cities [6]. - Recommended companies include Jianfa International Group, Greentown China, and China Overseas Development, which are expected to perform well due to their ongoing land acquisition capabilities [6].

Key Points - The report highlights a selection of stocks for July, including companies such as Binjiang Group (002244.SZ) and SF Holding (002352.SZ) as part of the recommended investment portfolio [1] - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. marks a significant step in the commercialization of fusion energy in China, with a capital increase of 11.5 billion yuan from seven state-owned enterprises [2][7][9] - The fusion company aims to develop fusion energy through a phased approach, focusing on magnetic confinement Tokamak technology, with the goal of achieving commercial application [8][10] - The report discusses the acquisition plan by GoerTek to purchase 100% equity of Mega Precision Technology Limited and Channel Well Industrial Limited for approximately 9.5 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance the company's performance [3][12][13] - The report emphasizes the strong competitive position of the target companies in the precision metal components sector, which is crucial for high-tech industries [14]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is facing significant challenges, with a notable divergence in performance among listed companies as they release their mid-year earnings forecasts for 2025, indicating a trend of declining profits and increasing losses for many firms [1][2][8]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - As of July 17, 2025, 61 real estate companies have disclosed their mid-year earnings forecasts, with a total expected loss ranging from 342.56 billion to 464.97 billion [2]. - Among these, 24 companies anticipate profits while 37 expect losses, indicating that 60% of the firms are projected to report losses [2]. - The overall trend shows a decline in performance, with companies like Jin Di Group and Huashang City experiencing significant losses, while some firms like Dayue City and Chengjian Development have managed to turn losses into profits [2][3]. Group 2: Profitability Analysis - In the group of 24 companies expecting profits, only Poly Developments and Binjiang Group are projected to earn over 1 billion, with Poly's profit expected to drop by 63.15% year-on-year [3][4]. - Binjiang Group's profit is expected to increase by 40% to 70%, attributed to a higher volume of delivered properties compared to the previous year [3]. - Chengjian Development is expected to achieve a profit of 4.4 billion to 6.54 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of up to 575.14% due to successful project deliveries [4]. Group 3: Losses and First-Time Losses - Among the 37 companies forecasting losses, 13 are expected to report their first-ever losses, including Shahe Shares and Xijiang Holdings, with some firms projecting losses exceeding 10 billion [5][7]. - Vanke is anticipated to incur the highest loss, estimated between 100 billion and 120 billion, due to a significant decline in project settlement scale and low gross margins [6][7]. - Greenland Holdings and Xinda Real Estate are also expected to report substantial losses, with estimates of 30 billion to 35 billion [7]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall performance of real estate companies reflects the ongoing downward trend in the market, with sales volume and price indicators weakening [8][9]. - However, there are indications of potential recovery in the second half of the year, with expectations of a turning point as market conditions improve [8]. - The top 100 real estate companies reported a total sales volume of 18,364.1 billion, a year-on-year decline of 11.8%, but the rate of decline is slowing [9].

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [9] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector continues to see low allocation, with leading real estate companies presenting good investment opportunities. The total market value of heavy holdings in the real estate sector among public funds was 25.67 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a decrease of 11.3% quarter-on-quarter, with a holding ratio of 0.83%, which is 0.37 percentage points lower than the industry standard [4][10][17]. Summary by Sections Industry: Fund Holdings Decline, Low Allocation Trend Continues - In Q2 2025, the total market value of heavy holdings in the real estate sector among sample funds was 25.67 billion yuan, down 11.3% quarter-on-quarter. The holding ratio was 0.83%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points, indicating a relative underweight of 0.37 percentage points compared to the industry standard [10][17]. Sector: Development and Service Sectors See Decline - In Q2 2025, the heavy holding ratios for the real estate development and service sectors were 0.74% and 0.09%, respectively, both showing a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.11 and 0.02 percentage points [11][22]. Individual Stocks: Focus on State-Owned Enterprises and Commercial Real Estate - The top five heavy holdings in the real estate development sector were Poly Developments (4.902 billion yuan), China Merchants Shekou (3.193 billion yuan), and others. Notably, New Town Holdings and China Resources Land saw increases in holdings of 466 million yuan and 202 million yuan, respectively [12][24]. Funds: Northbound Funds Increase Holdings in Poly, Southbound Funds Add to Beike, Longfor, and Greentown - In Q2 2025, the top five companies with increased northbound fund holdings included Poly Developments (+1.37 percentage points) and others. Southbound funds increased holdings in Beike-W (+2.15 percentage points) and Longfor Group (+2.04 percentage points) [13][35]. Investment Recommendations: Continue to Recommend Leading State-Owned Enterprises and Improvement-Oriented Real Estate Companies - The real estate sector's valuation remains at historical lows, with policies supporting market stabilization. The report suggests focusing on leading state-owned enterprises and improvement-oriented real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and high-quality products, such as Jianfa International Group and Greentown China [14][38].