Market Overview - The feed sector increased by 1.16% on October 27, with Jin Xin Nong leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3996.94, up 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13489.4, up 1.51% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Jin Xin Nong (002548) closed at 4.80, up 5.49% with a trading volume of 369,000 shares and a turnover of 173 million yuan [1] - Tian Kang Biological (002100) closed at 7.89, up 5.34% with a trading volume of 506,600 shares [1] - Tian Ma Technology (603668) closed at 14.06, up 4.15% with a trading volume of 218,000 shares and a turnover of 302 million yuan [1] - Ao Nong Biological (603363) closed at 5.16, up 4.03% with a trading volume of 1,878,500 shares and a turnover of 451 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Bangtai Technology (603151) at 26.26, up 1.70%, and Hai Da Group (002311) at 58.18, up 0.97% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector saw a net inflow of 132 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 148 million yuan [2] - The main capital inflow and outflow for key stocks are as follows: - Ao Nong Biological: Net outflow of 40.5 million yuan from main capital [3] - Tian Ma Technology: Net inflow of 34.8 million yuan from main capital [3] - Tian Kang Biological: Net inflow of 32.8 million yuan from main capital [3] - Hai Da Group: Net inflow of 30.4 million yuan from main capital [3]

Group 1 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) showed stable performance with a 1.0% increase in intraday price and a transaction volume of 5.0954 million yuan, bringing the fund's latest scale to 209 million yuan [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Zhongxing Junye reached the daily limit, while Xiaoming Co. and Shengnong Development saw significant gains of 4.34% and 3.99% respectively. Conversely, Chenguang Biotech experienced a notable decline of 3.19%, with Honghui Fruits and Vegetables and Shennong Seed Industry also showing weaker performance with drops of 1.04% and 0.88% respectively [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting on October 21 to discuss increasing grain and oil crop yields, emphasizing the promotion of technology integration and high-performance agricultural machinery, particularly supporting the promotion of genetically modified technology to enhance grain yields, which may benefit related seed and planting companies [1] - The core breeding source rate for lean pork in China has surpassed 90%, indicating progress in self-sufficiency in the livestock breeding industry, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods continuing to drive innovation in breeding [1] - According to Citic Securities, the supply in the pig farming industry continues to increase, with rising demand for fat pigs driving up prices, although farming remains unprofitable, potentially accelerating capacity reduction [1] - In the poultry farming sector, frequent outbreaks of avian influenza overseas create uncertainty in the introduction of grandparent stock chickens, which is favorable for the white feather chicken industry chain prices [1] - The seed industry is focusing on the progress of biological breeding expansion, the promotion of genetically modified corn, and industry mergers and acquisitions [1] - The demand in the animal health industry is expected to bottom out, with new product launches providing growth momentum. The domestic pet market continues to grow rapidly, while exports are only slightly affected by tariff disruptions [1] Group 2 - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) and its linked funds (Link A: 013471, Link C: 013472) passively track the Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, with the top ten weighted stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Haida Group, New Hope, Meihua Biological, Dabeinong, Shengnong Development, Biological Co., Beidahuang, and Longping High-Tech [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from recent policies and market forces that promote capacity reduction, leading to long-term performance improvements [3][36] - The current trend in grain prices is upward, indicating a favorable fundamental outlook for planting and seed industries, highlighting significant investment opportunities [3][36] - The pet food sector is experiencing growth, with increasing recognition of domestic brands and continuous market expansion [3][36] Summary by Relevant Sections Pig Farming - The current pig price is weak, with the average price for external three yuan pigs at 11.82 yuan/kg, a week-on-week increase of 5.82% [10][44] - The industry is entering a phase of capacity reduction, with pig prices expected to stabilize and potentially rise in the long term due to policy support [7][10] Poultry - White feather broiler prices have shown slight increases, with the current price at 6.88 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 0.15% [13][44] - The yellow feather broiler prices continue to remain strong, indicating a stable market environment [21][44] Feed Sector - Corn prices have decreased slightly, while soybean meal and wheat prices have increased, indicating a mixed market for feed ingredients [23][44] - The average price of pig feed is 3.37 yuan/kg, showing a slight decrease of 0.30% [44] Bulk Agricultural Products - Natural rubber prices have risen, with the current price at 15,335 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 4.36% [30][44] - The report indicates that the down cycle for bulk agricultural products is nearing its end, with signs of recovery in certain segments [30][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the livestock cycle in 2025, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to improve [4] - The pig industry is supported by a trend of "anti-involution," which is likely to stabilize long-term prices [4] - The pet consumption sector is identified as a growing industry benefiting from demographic changes [4] - The feed sector, particularly Haida Group, is expected to achieve excess returns due to the recovery in aquaculture [4] - The poultry sector is anticipated to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [4] Summary by Sections Swine - As of October 24, the price of live pigs is 11.82 CNY/kg, up 6.01% week-on-week [2] - The price of 15kg piglets is approximately 17.66 CNY/kg, down 1.83% week-on-week [2] - The industry is experiencing orderly progress in "anti-involution," which is expected to support profitability [14] Poultry - The supply of white chickens has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [2] - As of October 24, the price of chicken seedlings is 3.36 CNY/piece, up 2.13% week-on-week [15] - The price of broilers is 6.88 CNY/kg, up 0.15% week-on-week [15] - Yellow chicken supply remains at a low level, with potential benefits from improved domestic demand [15] Beef - A new round of beef price increases has begun, with a positive outlook for the beef cycle reversal in 2025 [2] - As of October 24, the average price of beef is 66.61 CNY/kg, up 0.36% week-on-week [16] Raw Milk - The average price of raw milk in major production areas is 3.04 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week but down 2.88% year-on-year [3] - The report anticipates an acceleration in the reduction of dairy cows in Q3, potentially leading to a price turning point by year-end [3] Soybean Meal - Short-term supply is expected to be ample, while medium to long-term supply and demand are projected to strengthen [3] - As of October 24, the domestic soybean spot price is 3997 CNY/ton, up 0.09% week-on-week, and soybean meal is 2984 CNY/ton, down 0.86% week-on-week [3] Corn - Domestic supply and demand balance is tightening, with prices expected to maintain moderate increases [3] - As of October 24, the domestic corn spot price is 2249 CNY/ton, down 0.64% week-on-week, but up 0.10% year-on-year [3] Sugar - Short-term imports are increasing, with attention on import rhythms and fluctuations in crude oil prices [3] - As of October 24, the spot price in Guangxi Nanning is 5750 CNY/ton, down 0.69% week-on-week [3] Rubber - Short-term prices are expected to stabilize, with a positive outlook for mid-term market conditions [3] - As of October 24, the price of Thai rubber is 1860 USD/ton, up 0.54% week-on-week [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on low-cost quality pig farming leaders for investment opportunities [2][12] Core Views - The current price of lean meat pigs is 11.6 CNY/kg, up 5.6% from last week, but the upward momentum lacks sustainability due to ongoing supply pressures and the absence of a consumption peak [11][12] - In the poultry sector, white feather chicken prices have seen slight increases, with broiler prices at 6.88 CNY/kg, up 0.1%, and chicken product prices at 8.65 CNY/kg, up 0.6% [12][29] - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance the growth potential of industry companies, with commercial sales anticipated to begin post-publicity period [12] - The agricultural sector is experiencing price volatility, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller competitors due to their advantages in procurement, scale, and capital [12] Summary by Sections Livestock - The lean meat pig price is currently 11.6 CNY/kg, reflecting a 5.6% increase from the previous week, while the average wholesale price of pork is 17.73 CNY/kg, down 1.7% [13][14] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs has decreased by 0.3% to 127.9 kg, and the price of 15 kg piglets has dropped by 2.2% to 19.55 CNY/kg [20][22] - Self-breeding and self-raising profitability has improved, with average losses of -185.68 CNY per head for self-breeding, and -289.07 CNY for purchased piglets [17][18] Poultry - The price of broiler chicks has increased by 0.9% to 3.32 CNY each, while the average price of white feather chickens is 6.88 CNY/kg, up 0.1% [12][29] - The profit from parent stock chicken breeding is 0.57 CNY per chick, while broiler breeding remains at a loss of -1.76 CNY per chick [35][36] Agricultural Products - The domestic corn price has decreased by 0.6% to 2248.63 CNY/ton, while soybean prices have increased slightly by 0.1% to 3996.84 CNY/ton [45][58] - The report highlights the potential for investment in the agricultural sector due to the anticipated growth from the commercialization of genetically modified crops [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the pig price has bottomed out and is rebounding, but the overall trend of breeding stock reduction remains unchanged. The short-term increase in breeding stock does not alter the long-term reduction trend [3][12] - The beef price continues to rise, but there is cautious replenishment in the industry due to differing expectations. The cattle inventory decreased in Q3 2025 [4][28] - The report highlights the acceleration of pig farming losses and the strengthening logic of domestic pet products, recommending several companies in the pig farming and feed sectors [5][31][34] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The proportion of breeding stock in actual sales increased to 2.09%, with a significant rise in breeding barn utilization rate to 44.8% [17][12] - As of October 24, 2025, the average price of pigs in China was 11.81 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.63 CNY/kg, but a year-on-year decrease of 5.74% [12][3] Weekly Perspective - The report notes that pig and piglet prices are in a loss situation, leading to an accelerated reduction in breeding stock. The report recommends companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and others [5][31] - The feed sector is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices. Recommended companies include Haida Group and New Hope [31] Market Performance (October 20-24) - The agriculture sector underperformed the market by 4.24 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.88% while the agriculture index fell by 1.36% [35][37] - The report highlights that the fishery sector led the gains among sub-sectors [35] Price Tracking (October 20-24) - The average price of pigs was 11.82 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.65 CNY/kg. The average price of piglets was 17.66 CNY/kg, down by 0.33 CNY/kg [43][44] - The average wholesale price of beef was 66.21 CNY/kg, with a slight increase of 0.21 CNY/kg [48]

Group 1 - The latest QFII holdings have attracted market attention, with 190 heavily held stocks appearing in 29 foreign institutional combinations during the third quarter reporting period [1] - Notable increases in holdings were observed from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, which significantly increased its positions in stocks such as Baofeng Energy and China National Materials, with a total market value of 1.764 billion yuan [1] - Morgan Stanley International holds 42 A-shares with a total market value of 2.874 billion yuan, focusing on stocks like Siyuan Electric and Guanghuan Xinwang [2] Group 2 - Morgan Chase Securities covers over 70 A-shares with a combined market value of 2.885 billion yuan, heavily investing in stocks like Shengtun Mining and Huijin Co [2] - QFII has shown interest in advanced manufacturing, conducting research on companies such as Shenghong Technology, Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical, and others [2] - The most held company by QFII is China Western Electric, with significant foreign holdings also in Siyuan Electric, Huagong Technology, and Baofeng Energy, each exceeding 500 million yuan in market value [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent adjustments in QFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) holdings in A-shares as companies disclose their Q3 reports, highlighting a clear trend in foreign investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Sovereign Wealth Fund Adjustments - Sovereign wealth funds like the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and the Monetary Authority of Macao have shown distinct trading behaviors, with ADIA significantly increasing its holdings in cyclical resource stocks, particularly Baofeng Energy, which now has a market value exceeding 790 million yuan [3][4]. - In contrast, the Monetary Authority of Macao has adopted a more defensive and stable investment strategy, focusing on resource, environmental, and manufacturing sectors, with a total market value of 1.14 billion yuan across six stocks [3][4]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has reduced its holdings in Chengde Lolo, now holding 9.3 million shares, indicating a cautious approach compared to ADIA's aggressive positioning [4]. Group 2: Traditional Foreign Banks' Strategies - Major foreign banks like Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Goldman Sachs have shown a trend towards concentrated investments in high-certainty sectors, with Morgan Stanley holding 42 A-shares valued at 2.874 billion yuan, focusing on electric power equipment and digital infrastructure [5][6]. - Morgan Chase has the largest coverage with 71 A-shares, significantly increasing its stake in China West Electric from 56.82 million shares to 130 million shares, reflecting a strategic shift towards high-potential stocks [5]. - UBS has diversified its holdings across 55 A-shares, emphasizing mid-to-small-cap growth stocks, while Goldman Sachs has concentrated on resource and chemical stocks, indicating varied investment philosophies among these institutions [5][6]. Group 3: Common Holdings Among Foreign Institutions - Several stocks have emerged as "foreign consensus stocks," held by three or more foreign institutions, indicating strong compatibility in valuation, fundamentals, and policy direction [7][8]. - Notable examples include Chengfei Integration, which is held by multiple institutions with a total market value exceeding 132 million yuan, and Innovation Medical, favored by four foreign entities [7][8]. - Other stocks like Lianhuan Pharmaceutical and Xingwang Yuda have also gained traction among foreign investors, showcasing a trend towards core assets in advanced manufacturing, healthcare, TMT, and military materials sectors [8].

Core Insights - The feed sector experienced a slight decline of 0.17% on October 24, with Tianma Technology leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3950.31, up 0.71%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.18, up 2.02% [1] Feed Sector Performance - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (002891) saw a closing price of 54.36, with an increase of 3.74% and a trading volume of 96,700 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 526 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Boen Group (001366) with a closing price of 13.03, up 0.77%, and Petty Co., Ltd. (300673) at 17.42, up 0.40% [1] - Tianma Technology (603668) led the declines with a closing price of 13.50, down 4.66%, and a trading volume of 222,500 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 309 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector experienced a net outflow of 154 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 97.74 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks showed that Zhongchong Co., Ltd. had a net inflow of 12.28 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 36.39 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Other stocks like He Feng Co., Ltd. (60360a) and Boen Group (001366) also showed mixed capital flows, with varying degrees of net inflows and outflows from different investor categories [3]

Group 1 - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector experienced a decline today, with the only agricultural ETF (159275) showing a slight drop of 0.1% after a brief rise [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector, including COFCO Technology, Xiaoming Co., and Zhongshui Fishery, saw significant declines, with COFCO Technology dropping over 4% [1][2] - Recent capital inflows into agricultural ETFs indicate a potential stabilization in the sector's performance, despite short-term pressures on pig prices [1][5] Group 2 - The agricultural and fishery sector's valuation remains relatively low, with the market's first agricultural ETF (159275) showing a price-to-book ratio of 2.54, which is at a low percentile compared to the last decade [3] - Analysts suggest that there are opportunities in the pig farming sector, particularly for companies with strong growth in output and stable operations [4] - The recent fluctuations in pork and piglet prices, along with increased slaughter rates, indicate a complex market environment influenced by various pressures [5] Group 3 - The agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, which includes leading companies in the sector, with approximately 40% exposure to pig-related businesses [4][6] - The ongoing policy adjustments and market conditions are expected to accelerate the reduction of industry capacity, potentially leading to a price increase in the second half of next year [4][5]