丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨海大集团（002311.SZ） [Table_Title] 海大集团 2025 年三季报暨港股上市预案点评： 饲料量利齐升，看好海外业务分拆上市 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司单三季度饲料板块量利齐升，归母净利润增长 30%以上。单三季度饲料销量约 860 万吨， 同比增长 21%，测算饲料吨利 160 元/吨，同比增长 10%，主要系产品结构优化及海外占比提 升。三季度猪价同比大幅下行且套保空间有限，叠加外购仔猪成本抬升，生猪养殖头盈利同环 比下降。此外，积极看好公司海外业务分拆上市，有助于提升公司的国际影响力和全球市场竞 争力，进一步促进上市公司高质量发展。通过登陆香港资本市场能够拓宽公司融资渠道，加快 境外业务的发展，进而提升上市公司整体盈利能力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 海大集团（002311.SZ） cjzqdt11111 陈佳 顾熀乾 王煜坤 SAC：S04 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is experiencing a downturn, with the first agricultural ETF (159275) declining by 1.31% as of market close on October 22, 2023 [1] Industry Analysis - The pig farming industry is facing significant capacity pressure, leading to widespread losses. Current prices for fat and piglets have dropped to yearly lows, suggesting a potential further decline in prices. Historical trends indicate that when both prices are low, the industry may initiate market-driven capacity reduction, which could support long-term price increases for pigs [3] - Despite the current challenges, there is an expectation of increased pig supply in the fourth quarter due to rising slaughter volumes and accelerated weight gain as temperatures drop. This has led to a stronger demand for meat, with pig prices stabilizing at psychological levels, easing the pressure on the breeding sector [3] - The valuation of the agricultural sector remains relatively low, presenting a favorable investment opportunity. As of October 22, 2023, the agricultural ETF's index price-to-book ratio stands at 2.57, placing it in the 29.3 percentile over the past decade, highlighting its mid- to long-term investment value [3] Investment Direction - Analysts are optimistic about the pig farming sector due to policy and market forces driving capacity reduction, which is expected to enhance long-term performance [4] - The agricultural sector plays a crucial role in food security, economic development, ecological balance, and social welfare. The traditional farming industry is undergoing significant supply-side reforms, which are likely to benefit large-scale farming enterprises. The domestic market concentration is increasing, and companies that have expanded into overseas markets are expected to gain a competitive edge [5] - The current upward trend in grain prices and favorable conditions in the planting and seed sectors indicate significant investment opportunities in these areas [6] ETF Overview - The agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, with major holdings including leading companies in livestock, feed, and planting sectors. The top ten holdings account for over 90% of the index, focusing on agricultural breeding, feed, and planting industries [6]

Core Viewpoint - Haida Group's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1-Q3 2025 reached 4.142 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.31%, with Q3 net profit at 1.504 billion yuan, up 0.34% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - The company's feed sales continue to grow, contributing to improved profit margins per ton and driving down pig farming costs [1] - The comprehensive breeding cost for pigs in Q3 2025 was approximately 13 yuan/kg, with self-breeding costs between 12.2-12.4 yuan/kg, expected to decrease to 12 yuan/kg by Q1 2026 [1] Business Development - The company is experiencing steady growth in pig sales, which is enhancing breeding levels and further reducing costs [1] - The planned spin-off of Haida Holdings for a Hong Kong stock listing is expected to support the development of overseas business and improve overall valuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Haida Group's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 21.11% but a recent decline of 6.54% over the past five trading days [1] Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, Haida Group achieved a revenue of 96.094 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.142 billion, up 14.31% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 7.6 billion, with 3.739 billion distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Structure - The number of shareholders decreased by 11.81% to 19,000, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 13.39% to 87,561 shares [2] - Major shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 8.015 million shares, and Invesco Great Wall New Growth Mixed Fund, which reduced its holdings by 3.5374 million shares [3] Market Activity - On October 22, Haida Group's stock price was 57.83 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 165 million and a turnover rate of 0.17% [1] - The stock's market capitalization stood at 96.215 billion [1] Business Overview - Haida Group, established on January 8, 2004, and listed on November 27, 2009, specializes in the research, production, and sales of aquatic premixes, aquatic feeds, and livestock feeds [1] - The revenue composition includes 80.13% from feed sales, 16.55% from agricultural products, 2.37% from trade, 0.79% from animal health products, and 0.17% from other sources [1] Industry Classification - Haida Group is classified under the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, specifically in the feed and aquatic feed category [1] - The company is associated with various concept sectors, including pork, poultry farming, ecological agriculture, prepared dishes, and rural revitalization [1]

Core Insights - The Social Security Fund has disclosed its stock holdings as of the end of Q3, appearing in the top ten circulating shareholders of 33 companies, with a total holding of 625 million shares valued at 13.07 billion yuan [1][2] Group 1: Stock Holdings - The Social Security Fund has newly entered 7 stocks and increased holdings in 10 stocks, while maintaining positions in 6 stocks and reducing holdings in 10 stocks [1] - The company with the highest number of Social Security Fund shareholders is Sanhe Tree, with 3 funds listed among the top ten shareholders, holding a total of 15.02 million shares, accounting for 2.04% of circulating shares [1] - The stock with the highest holding ratio by the Social Security Fund is Baiya Shares, with a holding ratio of 4.34%, followed by Guoyao Shares at 4.12% [1][2] Group 2: Performance and Profit Growth - Among the stocks held by the Social Security Fund, 26 companies reported year-on-year net profit growth, with the highest growth seen in Xinqianglian, achieving a net profit of 664 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1939.50% [2] - The average increase of Social Security Fund heavy stocks since October is 1.21%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2] - The best-performing stock is Shenhuo Shares, with a cumulative increase of 16.74%, followed by Haotaitai and Jinling Mining with increases of 14.87% and 13.64%, respectively [2] Group 3: Sector Distribution - The stocks held by the Social Security Fund are primarily concentrated in the pharmaceutical, basic chemical, and agriculture sectors, with 4, 4, and 3 stocks respectively [2] - In terms of board distribution, 26 stocks are from the main board, 6 from the ChiNext board, and 1 from the Sci-Tech Innovation board [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is that Guangdong Haida Group Co., Ltd. has received notification from its controlling shareholder, Guangzhou Haihao Investment Co., Ltd., regarding the extension of the pledge on part of its shares [1][2] - Haihao Investment pledged 11,850,000 shares to China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. on October 20, 2023, with the pledge set to expire on October 20, 2025 [1] - The pledged shares do not involve any significant asset restructuring or performance compensation obligations [1] Group 2 - As of the announcement date, the cumulative pledge situation of the shareholder and its concerted actors is detailed [2] - The company has provided documents for reference, including the stock pledge extension statement and the notification letter from Guangzhou Haihao Investment Co., Ltd. [2]

Overall Economic Perspective - The industrial economy shows steady progress, with industrial production increasing by 6.5% year-on-year in September 2025, and a month-on-month increase of 0.64% [4][3] - The manufacturing sector continues to advance towards high-end development, with high-tech manufacturing value-added growing by 10.3% year-on-year in September [4] Consumer Sector - The retail sales growth rate slightly declined to 3.0% year-on-year in September 2025, influenced by the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the diminishing effects of the "trade-in" policy [5][11] - Restaurant income growth was only 0.9% year-on-year, with a decline in revenue from large-scale dining establishments [5][11] Investment Sector - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year from January to September 2025, with real estate investment continuing to decline, down 13.9% year-on-year [6][24] - The sales area of new commercial housing fell by 5.5% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate market [6][21] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is expected to gradually improve as macroeconomic stability and consumption policies take effect, with the liquor industry showing signs of bottoming out [10][11] - Key companies in the sector, such as Wei Long and Ximai Foods, are recommended for investment due to their growth potential [10] Retail Sector - The retail sector maintained steady growth, with online retail sales increasing by 9.8% year-on-year from January to September 2025, while offline retail growth showed signs of slowing down [18][19] - The performance of optional consumption categories, such as cosmetics and jewelry, remains strong, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [17][19] Real Estate Sector - The real estate market is facing significant challenges, with a notable decline in sales and investment, particularly in lower-tier cities [21][24] - Recommendations for investment focus on companies with strong credit ratings and those that can adapt to changing consumer demands [25] Agricultural Sector - Haida Group reported a 13.24% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong feed sales [26][27] - The company is planning to spin off its subsidiary for a separate listing, which is expected to enhance its overseas business development [28][29] Home Appliance Sector - The home appliance company, Yingshi Network, achieved steady growth in revenue and profit, with a focus on AI capabilities [31][32] - The company is expanding its product applications and enhancing its cloud platform services, indicating a positive growth trajectory [33] Chemical Industry - Lianlong's Q3 net profit increased by 24.9% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in profitability and a focus on high-quality development [35][36] - The company is advancing its projects in anti-aging agents and lubricating oil additives, which are expected to stabilize growth [36][38]

广东海大集团股份有限公司 关于控股股东部分股份质押展期的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 广东海大集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于近日接到公司控股股东 广州市海灏投资有限公司（以下简称"海灏投资"）函告，获悉海灏投资将其所 持有的公司部分股份办理了质押展期手续，具体事项如下： 一、股东股份质押展期的基本情况 海灏投资于2023年10月20日将其所持有的公司部分股份11,850,000股质押给 招商证券股份有限公司，上述股份质押到期日为2025年10月20日。详见公司于 2023年10月24日在指定信息披露媒体披露的《关于控股股东部分股份质押及解除 质押的公告》（公告编号：2023-091）。 证券代码：002311 证券简称：海大集团 公告编号：2025-052 截至公告披露日，上述股东及其一致行动人所持质押股份情况如下： | | | | | | | 已质押股份情况 | | 未质押股份情况 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股东 名称 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the continuous growth in feed sales and the positive impact of the planned spin-off listing on the company's overseas development, maintaining a "buy" rating [1][2] Group 2 - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue reached 96.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.24%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.142 billion yuan, up 14.31% year-on-year [1] - The company's feed sales volume increased by 4.4 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 24%, with specific increases in aquaculture feed, pig feed, and poultry feed of 900,000 tons, 1.7 million tons, and 1.8 million tons respectively [1] - The company plans to spin off its subsidiary, Haida Holdings, for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to enhance its financing capabilities and overall valuation [2] - The projected net profit for Haida Holdings in 2024 is 755 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42% [2] - The company anticipates a stable growth in pig farming, with an estimated 6.4 to 6.5 million pigs to be sold in 2025 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 960.94 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.24%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 41.42 billion yuan, up 14.31% year-on-year [3][4] - The company continues to see growth in feed sales, with a total sales volume increase of 4.4 million tons, or 24% year-on-year, and expects a 20% increase in domestic feed sales and a 40% increase in overseas sales for the full year 2025 [4][5] - The company plans to spin off its subsidiary, Haida Holdings, for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to enhance its financing capabilities and overall valuation [5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 372.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.43%, and a net profit of 15.04 billion yuan, up 0.34% year-on-year [3] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 11.13%, a decrease of 0.20 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 4.54%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 51.48 billion yuan, 57.39 billion yuan, and 61.72 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.09 yuan, 3.45 yuan, and 3.71 yuan [3][4] Sales and Production Insights - The company expects to maintain a steady growth in pig farming, with an estimated 640-650 million pigs to be sold in 2025, and a reduction in breeding costs to approximately 12 yuan per kilogram by Q1 2026 [4] - The company’s feed business continues to improve profitability, with a net profit per ton of feed increasing by 10 yuan per ton in Q3 2025 [4] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 59.02 yuan, with a market capitalization of 981.95 billion yuan and a P/E ratio of 19.1 for 2025 [1][3] - The company’s projected P/E ratios for 2026 and 2027 are 17.1 and 15.9 respectively [3]