Market Overview - The feed sector increased by 0.5% on September 30, with Petty Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3882.78, up 0.52%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51, up 0.35% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Petty Co. (300673) closed at 17.86, up 3.30% with a trading volume of 101,000 shares and a turnover of 179 million [1] - Other notable gainers include: - Zhongchong Co. (002891) at 53.21, up 2.48% [1] - Boen Group (001366) at 12.63, up 1.61% [1] - Guibao Pet (301498) at 93.93, up 1.47% [1] - Decliners in the feed sector included: - Aonong Bio (603363) at 4.80, down 1.44% [2] - Tiankang Bio (002100) at 7.37, down 1.21% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector experienced a net outflow of 55.0035 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 45.5314 million [2] - The capital flow for key stocks includes: - Zhongchong Co. had a net inflow of 21.3411 million from institutional investors [3] - Haida Group (002311) saw a net inflow of 5.0677 million from institutional investors [3] - Aonong Bio had a net outflow of 1.444 million from institutional investors [3]

Core Points - The 2025 World Cantonese Business Conference was held in Guangzhou, aiming to unite global Cantonese business forces and promote high-quality development in the Greater Bay Area [8][10] - Three lists were released: "Top 100 Private Enterprises in Guangdong 2025," "Top 100 Private Manufacturing Enterprises in Guangdong 2025," and "Top 50 Private Service Enterprises in Guangdong 2025" [9] - The threshold for entering the "Top 100 Private Enterprises in Guangdong" list was set at 12.332 billion yuan, with 4 companies exceeding 400 billion yuan in revenue and 12 exceeding 100 billion yuan [9] Summary of Lists - The top companies in the "Top 100 Private Enterprises in Guangdong" include Huawei Investment Holding Co., Ltd. with revenue of 862.072 billion yuan, BYD Co., Ltd. with 777.102 billion yuan, and Tencent Holdings Ltd. with 660.257 billion yuan [7] - In the "Top 100 Private Manufacturing Enterprises," Huawei, BYD, and Midea Group Co., Ltd. lead the list, with revenues of 862.072 billion yuan, 777.102 billion yuan, and 409.084 billion yuan respectively [7] - The "Top 50 Private Service Enterprises" is led by Tencent Holdings Ltd. with 660.257 billion yuan, followed by SF Holding Co., Ltd. with 284.420 billion yuan [7] Investment and Economic Impact - The conference attracted nearly a thousand representatives from global Cantonese businesses, resulting in 24 signed projects worth 44.458 billion yuan, covering sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductors [10] - The Guangdong Provincial Federation of Industry and Commerce initiated a survey to rank large-scale private enterprises based on their 2024 revenue [9] Global Cantonese Business Initiative - The "Global Cantonese Business Cooperation Initiative" was launched, calling for collaboration among global Cantonese businesses to enhance competitiveness and innovation [11][12][13] - The initiative emphasizes the importance of integrating into the Greater Bay Area's development and contributing to high-quality growth in Guangdong [14][15] Notable Statements - TCL's chairman highlighted the company's investment of 82.5 billion yuan in Guangdong over the past five years and its focus on global business expansion [16] - The chairman of the Hong Kong Chinese General Chamber of Commerce noted that the total import and export volume between Guangdong and Hong Kong reached 566.85 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.9% increase [18]

Group 1 - The pork concept sector declined by 0.54%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sectors, with major declines seen in companies like Jingji Zhino, Longda Meishi, and Aonong Biological [1] - Among the 11 stocks that rose, Tianyu Biological, Ronioushan, and New Hope saw increases of 1.49%, 1.27%, and 1.03% respectively [1] - The pork concept sector experienced a net outflow of 292 million yuan, with 21 stocks seeing net outflows, and 9 stocks with outflows exceeding 10 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The leading net outflow was from Muyuan Foods, with a net outflow of 208 million yuan, followed by Aonong Biological, Guangming Meat Industry, and Haida Group with net outflows of 31.48 million yuan, 17.91 million yuan, and 16.87 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Wens Foodstuff, Jingji Zhino, and Dabeinong, with net inflows of 33.06 million yuan, 14.71 million yuan, and 12.52 million yuan respectively [2] - The pork concept sector's outflow list highlighted Muyuan Foods, Aonong Biological, Guangming Meat Industry, and Haida Group as the top four companies with significant outflows [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Changjiang Securities indicates that Haida Group is expected to see a significant recovery in domestic aquaculture profits and seedling volume by 2025, with continuous year-on-year growth in aquaculture feed sales since the second quarter, driven by improved product structure and price increases in the aquaculture feed industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Haida Group's feed business is anticipated to achieve simultaneous growth in volume and profit in the third quarter [1] - The company has set a mid-term target of at least 7.2 million tons in overseas feed sales by 2030, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of at least 20% for overseas sales [1] Group 2: Market Expansion - The company is exploring broader opportunities for feed exports, particularly in the Pan-Vietnam market, East Africa, Central Africa, and South American markets such as Brazil and Chile [1] - The long-term plan to recreate another Haida Group by 2030 is considered highly probable, supported by the expansion into more overseas regions [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][4]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the reversal of the cattle cycle in 2025, with both domestic and international beef and raw milk markets expected to rise [3]. - The pig farming sector is expected to stabilize long-term prices due to reduced competition, with a focus on undervalued leading companies [3]. - The pet consumption market is identified as a growing sector benefiting from demographic changes [3]. - The feed industry, particularly Haida Group, is projected to achieve excess returns due to the recovery in aquaculture [3]. - The poultry sector is expected to see a long-term increase in consumption, with yellow chicken likely to benefit first from domestic demand recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices have started to rise, with the average market price at 61.25 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week but up 21.29% year-on-year [2][3]. - Raw milk prices are expected to reach a turning point by the end of the year, with current prices at 3.03 yuan/kg, stable week-on-week but down 3.5% year-on-year [2][3]. Swine - The pig price as of September 26 is 12.44 yuan/kg, down 1.50% week-on-week and down 30.73% year-on-year [1][13]. - The price of 7kg piglets is approximately 210.95 yuan/head, down 12.45% week-on-week and down 30.67% year-on-year [1][13]. Poultry - The price of broiler chicks is 3.21 yuan/bird, down 2.13% week-on-week and down 9.07% year-on-year [1][14]. - The price of eggs in major production areas is 3.55 yuan/jin, down 3.01% week-on-week and down 19.50% year-on-year [1][14]. Feed - The domestic soybean spot price is 4061 yuan/ton, up 0.42% week-on-week, while soybean meal is priced at 2998 yuan/ton, down 0.46% week-on-week [2][3]. - The corn price is 2352 yuan/ton, up 0.09% week-on-week and up 8.49% year-on-year [2][3]. Sugar and Rubber - The sugar price in Guangxi is 5780 yuan/ton, down 1.03% week-on-week [2][3]. - The rubber price is expected to stabilize in the short term, with the Thai standard price at 1860 USD/ton, up 1.64% week-on-week [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agriculture industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The pig farming sector is expected to see a long-term performance improvement due to ongoing capacity reduction driven by both policy and market forces, with key companies continuing to show profitability and increasing dividend rates [3][46] - The current prices for fat pigs and piglets have dropped significantly, leading to widespread losses in the industry, which may trigger a market-driven capacity reduction [3][12] - The planting sector is showing positive fundamentals with an established upward trend in grain prices, highlighting significant investment opportunities [3][46] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Fundamentals - Pig prices continue to decline, with the average price for fat pigs at 12.45 yuan/kg, down 1.81% week-on-week, and piglet prices at 21.29 yuan/kg, down 4.81% week-on-week [12][54] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter is stabilizing, but the pressure from capacity release continues, leading to a sustained decline in prices [12] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, highlighting companies such as Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) as key investment targets [3][46] - For the post-cycle sector, rising pig inventory is expected to boost demand for feed and animal health products, with companies like Haida Group (002311) and Reap Bio (300119) identified as potential beneficiaries [3][46] - In the planting chain, companies like Suqian Agricultural Development (601952) and Beidahuang (600598) are noted for their favorable investment outlook due to rising grain prices [3][46] - The pet food sector is also highlighted for its growth potential, with companies like Guibao Pet (301498) and Zhongchong Co. (002891) recommended for investment [3][46] Market Performance - The agriculture sector underperformed the market, with the agricultural index down 1.97% during the week, compared to a 0.21% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [48][49] - Key sub-sectors such as feed, animal health, and livestock farming all experienced declines, with livestock farming down 2.14% [48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The logic of breeding sow reduction is strengthening, and beef and milk are expected to achieve upward linkage in 2026. As of September 26, 2025, the average price of live pigs in China is 12.50 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.20 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 5.51% [11][16] - The investment logic for live pigs is marginally improving, driven by both fundamental and policy factors. The price of live pigs is expected to rise in the second half of 2025 due to strong support from previous breeding sow reductions and winter piglet losses [29][32] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The logic of breeding sow reduction is strengthening, and beef and milk are expected to achieve upward linkage in 2026. The average price of live pigs is 12.50 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.20 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 5.51% [11][16] - The average price of beef is 66.27 yuan/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 2.10% and a year-on-year increase of 7.74% [23] Weekly Market Performance (September 22-26) - The agricultural index underperformed the market by 2.18 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% and the agricultural index falling by 1.97% [34][36] - Leading stocks include ST Jinggu (+15.68%), Huaying Agriculture (+5.76%), and Biological Shares (+3.78%) [34][40] Price Tracking (September 22-26) - The average price of live pigs is 12.45 yuan/kg, down 1.81% from the previous week. The average price of piglets is 21.29 yuan/kg, down 4.87% [46] - The average price of beef is 65.90 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.30 yuan/kg [54] Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Juxing Agriculture [20][29] - In the feed sector, recommended stocks include Haida Group and New Hope [29] - In the pet food sector, recommended stocks include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [42] Core Viewpoints - Recent declines in pig prices and continuous profit decreases for breeding companies will force upstream breeding sows to reduce stock. The current stock of breeding sows remains relatively high, indicating significant potential for future reduction. The valuation of pig breeding companies is still at a historically low level, presenting an opportunity for investment based on capacity reduction expectations. In the chicken breeding sector, overall capacity is relatively high, and profitability remains under pressure. There is a potential for capacity reduction in the future, with attention to marginal profit improvement opportunities. In the feed sector, opportunities arise from increased market concentration and overseas expansion. The domestic pet market still has expansion potential, with leading domestic companies expected to maintain rapid growth [42][43] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 5.07% from September 12 to September 25, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 6.07 percentage points [10] - All sub-sectors recorded negative returns during this period, with declines of 2.89% in planting, 3.59% in animal health, 4.36% in feed, 5.32% in agricultural product processing, 5.95% in breeding, and 6.73% in fisheries [13][14] 2. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three-way cross pigs fell from 13.31 CNY/kg to 12.51 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn was 2365.1 CNY/ton, and soybean meal was 3002 CNY/ton, both showing slight declines. As of September 26, 2025, the profit for self-bred pigs was -74.11 CNY/head, and for purchased piglets, it was -236.57 CNY/head, indicating a decrease in profitability [22][24][27] - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks was 3.29 CNY/chick, showing a slight increase, while the average price of white feather broilers was 6.9 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight decline. The profit for white feather broilers was -2.22 CNY/chick, also indicating a decrease [29][33] - **Aquaculture**: The average wholesale prices for crucian carp and carp were 21.09 CNY/kg and 14.2 CNY/kg, respectively, both showing slight declines [35] 3. Industry News - Argentina announced a temporary zero-export tax on agricultural products, effective from September 23, 2025, until October 31, or until exports reach 7 billion USD. This measure aims to address domestic foreign exchange pressures and currency devaluation, significantly lowering export costs and enhancing competitiveness in the global market [37]

Core Insights - The feed sector experienced a rise of 0.89% on September 26, with Hai Da Group leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.11, down 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13209.0, down 1.76% [1] Summary of Feed Sector Performance - Hai Da Group (002311) closed at 63.40, up 2.26%, with a trading volume of 87,900 shares and a transaction value of 555 million [1] - Other notable performers included: - Zi Yang Co. (002696) at 6.19, up 1.81% [1] - Mo Feng Co. (603609) at 8.11, up 1.50% [1] - Bo En Group (001366) at 12.38, up 1.23% [1] - Ao Nong Bio (603363) at 5.00, up 1.21% [1] - Pei Ti Co. (300673) at 17.53, up 1.15% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The feed sector saw a net outflow of 124 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 111 million [2] - The capital flow for specific stocks included: - Tang Ren Shen (002567) with a net inflow of 21.48 million from institutional investors [3] - Pei Ti Co. (300673) with a net inflow of 9.99 million from institutional investors [3] - Guai Bao Pet (301498) with a net inflow of 8.11 million from institutional investors [3]

Core Insights - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry experienced a decline of 1.22% on September 25, with a net outflow of 688 million yuan in capital [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.01%, with the agricultural sector ranking third in terms of decline among various industries [1] - Out of 105 stocks in the agricultural sector, only 8 stocks rose, and 1 stock hit the daily limit, while 97 stocks declined [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The top three stocks with the highest net capital outflow were Muyuan Foods, Dabeinong Technology, and Haida Group, with net outflows of 188 million yuan, 46.95 million yuan, and 46.52 million yuan, respectively [2][3] - The stocks with the highest net capital inflow included COFCO Sugar, with an inflow of 76.24 million yuan, followed by Xue Rong Biological and Xiantan Co., with inflows of 24.15 million yuan and 7.64 million yuan, respectively [1] Group 3: Individual Stock Performance - Muyuan Foods saw a decline of 2.08% with a turnover rate of 1.08% and a capital outflow of 187.73 million yuan [2] - Dabeinong Technology and Haida Group also experienced declines of 1.21% and 0.29%, with capital outflows of 46.95 million yuan and 46.52 million yuan, respectively [2]