智通财经APP获悉，锂业股再度走高，截至发稿，天齐锂业(09696)涨3.81%，报57.15港元；赣锋锂业 (01772)涨3.72%，报61.35港元。 财政部、税务总局日前发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》，自2026年4月1日起至2026年 12月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出 口退税。国信证券研报认为，由于存在一定的政策缓冲期，短期海外客户或存在一定的抢出口需求，产 业链或呈现显著淡季不淡。 消息面上，1月13日，广期所碳酸锂期货主力合约一度突破17万元/吨大关，创2023年10月以来新高。此 外，现货方面，据上海有色网最新报价显示，1月12日，碳酸锂（99.5%电池级/国产）价格涨12080元报 15.21万元/吨，创逾2年新高，连涨7日。 ...

锂业股今日再度走高，截至发稿，天齐锂业（09696）上涨3.91%，报57.20港元；赣锋锂业（01772）上 涨3.80%，报61.40港元。 锂业股今日再度走高，截至发稿，天齐锂业（09696）上涨3.91%，报57.20港元；赣锋锂业（01772）上 涨3.80%，报61.40港元。 责任编辑：卢昱君 责任编辑：卢昱君 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The prices of metal commodities have risen significantly, with COMEX gold and silver increasing by 4.07% and 12.36% respectively, while LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin saw increases of 4.24%, 4.00%, 0.85%, 2.14%, 5.25%, and 12.75% respectively [1] - The performance of the non-ferrous mining ETF, which tracks the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Index, has shown a remarkable increase of 120% over the past year, with key metals like gold, copper, and aluminum making up nearly 60% of its weight [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Ping An Securities, silver is expected to maintain a continuous shortage globally due to its rigid supply characteristics, even amidst short-term demand fluctuations. The long-term supply-demand dynamics for silver are anticipated to remain favorable, driven by the AI industry and overseas re-industrialization [1][8] - Galaxy Securities suggests that escalating global geopolitical conflicts may lead major powers to strengthen their control and reserves of critical strategic metal resources, potentially reshaping global metal supply chains and catalyzing demand and value reassessment for key strategic metals like copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earth materials [1][8] Group 3: Historical Performance and Trends - The non-ferrous mining index has shown a higher elasticity compared to similar indices, with a cumulative increase of 172.62% over the past decade and an annualized growth rate of 10.87% [3][5] - The historical performance of the non-ferrous metal mining theme index indicates fluctuations, with notable annual performances of 39.73% in 2021, -20.60% in 2022, and -11.19% in 2023 [10]

公司库存稳定，维持在一个月左右的现货水平，春节期间有例行检修安 排，一季度供应紧张程度较高，需关注下游库存消耗后的原料补充情况。 赣锋集团积极布局磷酸二氢锂、钾肥等新业务，其中钾肥项目规划年产 200 万吨，预计 2027 年投产，储能业务拓展国内外市场，固态电池领 域进行全面布局，推动低空经济等应用。 部不断抬高是大势所趋。从历史角度看，每轮周期底部都比上一轮高。此外， 由于行业开支低于预期导致供给跟不上需求变化，这一逻辑在当前周期再次得 到验证。 行业资本开支意愿及未来项目投产情况如何？ 赣锋锂业 20260112 摘要 赣锋锂业拥有约 5,000 万吨碳酸锂当量资源，计划到 2030 年形成 60 万吨产能，并积极拓展钾、磷等多元矿产资源，实现一体化发展，下游 电池业务预计 2025 年进入景气周期。 近期碳酸锂价格上涨超预期，主要受需求增长和供给不确定性影响，短 期内退税消息或刺激需求，长期来看，行业底部不断抬高，但需警惕非 市场化价格控制带来的风险。 尽管碳酸锂价格上涨，但行业资本开支意愿尚未显著提升，地缘政治因 素增加海外资源不确定性，新项目投产需时，预计 2025 年后的项目或 到 2027-2 ...

Core Insights - The energy metals sector experienced a rise of 0.86% on January 12, with Shengxin Lithium Energy leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29, up 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91, up 1.75% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) closed at 37.10, with a gain of 5.37% and a trading volume of 690,500 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 2.544 billion yuan [1] - Tianqi Lithium (002466) closed at 61.30, up 4.55%, with a trading volume of 698,900 shares and a transaction value of 4.266 billion yuan [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) closed at 67.97, increasing by 3.95%, with a trading volume of 700,500 shares and a transaction value of 4.756 billion yuan [1] - Yongxing Materials (002756) closed at 55.80, up 3.66%, with a trading volume of 162,500 shares and a transaction value of 903 million yuan [1] - Rongjie Co. (002192) closed at 57.46, with a gain of 2.66%, trading 200,100 shares for a transaction value of 1.152 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The energy metals sector saw a net inflow of 143 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 71.25 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium had significant net inflows from institutional investors, with Tianqi Lithium seeing a net inflow of 318 million yuan [3] - Conversely, stocks like BQ New Materials (605376) and Yongxing Materials (002756) experienced notable net outflows from institutional investors, indicating a shift in capital dynamics within the sector [3]

Group 1: Market Trends - The lithium carbonate market is expected to experience a rebound in 2025, with prices initially fluctuating around 75,200 CNY/ton and dropping to a low of 59,000 CNY/ton by June, before surging to over 130,000 CNY/ton by December, marking an increase of over 120% from the low [1][2] - The price trajectory of lithium carbonate in 2025 is characterized by a typical V-shaped curve, with a significant drop in early months followed by a strong recovery in the latter half of the year [1][2] - By December 2025, the price of lithium carbonate futures reached 134,500 CNY/ton, despite a slight pullback afterward, indicating a robust market recovery [2] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The demand for lithium carbonate is supported by the growth in the energy storage market and the increasing orders from battery manufacturers, which have led to a reduction in market inventory [3][4] - The new energy storage capacity in China has exceeded 100 million kilowatts, representing a growth of over 30 times compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, accounting for over 40% of the global total [4] - The performance of lithium battery companies has improved significantly, with companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium seeing stock price increases of over 160% and 173% respectively from their lows in 2025 [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The lithium market is expected to face uncertainties in 2026, with potential price fluctuations influenced by supply and demand dynamics, as well as the impact of futures trading [6][7] - The global demand for lithium is projected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, driven by the growth in electric vehicles and energy storage sectors [7] - The development of alternative technologies, such as sodium batteries, may introduce new variables into the market, potentially exerting downward pressure on lithium carbonate prices [9]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.86%, gaining 224 points to close at 26,456 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.08%. The morning trading volume reached HKD 168.4 billion [1] - Companies involved in AI large models saw significant gains, with MINIMAX-WP (00100) up over 31%, and Zhiyun (02513) rising by 30% after a strategic partnership with Didi to explore mobility agent scenarios [1] - The AI pharmaceutical sector also benefited from the surge in AI large models, with companies like Yingshi Intelligent (03696) up 12%, and Yidu Tech (02158) increasing by over 8% [1] Group 2 - Kuaishou-W (01024) increased by 5.62%, with its AI initiatives expected to significantly boost revenue for the fiscal year 2026 [2] - Kingdee International (00268) rose by 10.71%, driven by accelerated full-process empowerment through industrial large models and the implementation of multi-agent collaboration in its AI Starry Sky suite [3] - New stock Haowei Group (603501) (00501) debuted with a 15% increase, recognized as a leading Fabless semiconductor design company [4] Group 3 - LFG Investment Holdings (03938) resumed trading and surged over 120% following a cash offer from Chen Shaoyang at a discount of approximately 59.46% [5] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (300750) (03750) fell by 2.94% due to the introduction of a new battery export tax rebate policy, while lithium carbonate prices continued to rise [6] - Smoore International (06969) declined by 1.87% as the export tax rebate for electronic cigarettes is set to be canceled, potentially impacting the profits of related companies [7]

Group 1 - Lithium stocks experienced an upward trend in early trading, with Tianqi Lithium (09696) rising by 3.61% to HKD 54.55 [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) also saw an increase of 3.19%, reaching HKD 58.30 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks have seen an early rise, driven by a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures and changes in export tax policies affecting battery products [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Tianqi Lithium (09696) rose by 4.46%, trading at 55 HKD [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) increased by 3.45%, trading at 58.45 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - On January 12, lithium carbonate futures main contract hit the upper limit with a 9% increase, reaching 156,060 RMB per ton [1] - Analysts suggest that battery companies may increase orders before April to "rush exports," positively impacting short-term lithium carbonate demand [1] Group 3: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and a complete cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [1] - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to reduce profits across various sectors, potentially increasing costs that may be passed on to end consumers, which could suppress long-term demand [1]

Group 1 - Lithium stocks experienced an upward trend, with Tianqi Lithium (09696) rising by 4.46% to HKD 55 and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) increasing by 3.45% to HKD 58.45 [1] - On January 12, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures hit the upper limit, increasing by 9% to CNY 156,060 per ton [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and the complete cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [1] Group 2 - Analysts from CITIC Futures suggest that battery companies may increase orders before April due to the upcoming changes in export tax policy, which could positively impact short-term demand for lithium carbonate [1] - The anticipated "rush to export" before the tax rebate cancellation may sustain demand for lithium carbonate until 2027, providing short-term price support [1] - However, the cancellation of the export tax rebate is expected to reduce profits across various sectors, potentially leading to increased costs that could suppress long-term demand [1]