Core Insights - The cobalt metal concept has seen a rise of 3.02%, ranking sixth among concept sectors, with 34 stocks increasing in value, including notable gains from companies like Ganfeng Lithium, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Pengxin Resources [1][2] Market Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today include: - Zinc: +3.68% - Nickel: +3.65% - Lead: +3.61% - Cobalt: +3.02% [2] - The cobalt sector attracted a net inflow of 1.576 billion yuan, with 22 stocks receiving net inflows, and 9 stocks exceeding 50 million yuan in net inflow [2] Key Stocks - Ganfeng Lithium led the net inflow with 555.1 million yuan, followed by Zijin Mining and Huayou Cobalt with net inflows of 428.9 million yuan and 416.8 million yuan respectively [2][3] - Notable stock performances include: - Ganfeng Lithium: +7.83% - Zijin Mining: +5.00% - Huayou Cobalt: +5.46% - Luoyang Molybdenum: +6.81% [3][4] Fund Flow Ratios - The highest net inflow ratios were observed in: - China Metallurgical Group: 10.04% - China Power Construction: 9.29% - Tibet Mining: 8.89% [3]

Core Insights - The energy metals sector experienced a significant increase of 4.85% on September 29, with Boqian New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3862.53, up 0.9%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43, up 2.05% [1] Sector Performance - Boqian New Materials (605376) saw a closing price of 59.49, with a rise of 10.00% and a trading volume of 18,400 lots, amounting to 110 million yuan [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) closed at 58.50, up 7.83%, with a trading volume of 1,189,500 lots and a transaction value of 6.772 billion yuan [1] - Other notable performers included: - Sai Rui Aluminum (300618) at 53.24, up 5.78% [1] - Huayou Cobalt (603799) at 60.25, up 5.46% [1] - Tengyuan Diamond (301219) at 72.27, up 5.20% [1] Capital Flow - The energy metals sector saw a net inflow of 1.344 billion yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 828 million yuan [1] - Ganfeng Lithium had a main fund net inflow of 5.42 billion yuan, but retail funds saw a net outflow of 2.96 billion yuan [2] - Huayou Cobalt also reported a main fund net inflow of 4.97 billion yuan, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 4.53 billion yuan [2]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant rise, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.75% and the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3862.53 points, up 0.90% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 146 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - The brokerage sector, often seen as a "bull market flag bearer," surged by 4.89%, with notable individual stocks like Huatai Securities and GF Securities hitting the daily limit [3][4] - The precious metals sector rose by 4.3%, with spot gold breaking through the $3810 mark, setting a new historical high [7][9] - The solid-state battery index saw a strong increase, with related stocks like EVE Energy rising by 8.3% [10][11] Individual Stock Highlights - Key brokerage stocks such as GF Securities and Huatai Securities saw gains of over 10% [4] - In the precious metals sector, Shengda Resources hit the daily limit, while other stocks like Zhaojin Mining and Xiaocheng Technology rose over 6% [8] - In the solid-state battery sector, Tian Nai Technology surged by 14.36%, and several other stocks achieved significant gains [12] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China emphasized the importance of maintaining capital market stability during its recent monetary policy meeting [5] - The fiscal revenue from securities transaction stamp duty reached 118.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.7% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery anode materials are undergoing a significant transformation from traditional graphite to a diverse high energy density system, with lithium metal anodes being a key driver for solid-state battery energy density breakthroughs [2][5]. Industry Overview - The theoretical specific capacity of lithium metal anodes reaches 3860 mAh/g, significantly higher than graphite (372 mAh/g) and silicon-carbon anodes (3590 mAh/g), and they exhibit low voltage platform characteristics [2][5]. - Solid-state electrolytes, due to their high mechanical strength, suppress dendrite formation and are optimally compatible with lithium metal anodes [2][3]. Technical Challenges and Solutions - Key bottlenecks for lithium metal anodes include volume expansion, lithium dendrite issues, complex interfacial reactions, and high preparation process difficulties [3]. - Recent improvement strategies focus on limiting lithium volume expansion, reducing ion flow and surface current density, and constructing stable and fast ion transport surface SEI through various methods [3]. Manufacturing Processes - The preparation process of lithium metal anodes is crucial for their industrial application, with the industry currently exhibiting a multi-route parallel and high-low end scenario differentiation [4]. - Mainstream processes are categorized into mature mass production-oriented (calendering), high-end technology breakthrough (sputtering), and cutting-edge research exploration (liquid phase method, no anode solution) [4]. - The sputtering method is expected to continuously optimize costs and become the mainstream process for solid-state batteries [4]. Market Potential - The lithium metal anode market is primarily composed of lithium companies, anode manufacturers, and foil material suppliers, with lithium companies having cost and quality advantages in raw material preparation [5]. - According to the "China Solid-State Battery Industry Development White Paper (2025)", global solid-state battery shipments are projected to reach 614.1 GWh by 2030, with nearly 30% being all-solid-state [5]. - Assuming a 20% penetration rate for lithium metal anodes, the estimated market potential by 2030 is nearly 10 billion yuan [5]. Investment Targets - Companies to watch in the lithium metal anode sector include Yinglian Co., Ltd. (002846.SZ), Tiantie Technology (300587.SZ), as well as Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ), Putailai (603659.SH), Yiwei Lithium Energy (300014.SZ), Guoxuan High-Tech (002074.SZ), Defu Technology (301511.SZ), and Daoshi Technology (300409.SZ) [6].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.75% and the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3862.53 points, up 0.90% [1][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 146 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4] Sector Performance - The brokerage and precious metals sectors led the market gains, with the brokerage sector rising by 4.89% and the precious metals sector increasing by 4.3% [4][12] - Solid-state battery and lithium battery-related sectors also performed well, with the solid-state battery index surging [17] Brokerage Stocks - Brokerage stocks experienced a significant afternoon rally, with major players like Huatai Securities and GF Securities hitting the daily limit of 10% [7][8] - The average daily trading volume and margin financing indicators for brokerages reached historical highs, indicating strong market activity [10] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector saw notable increases, with spot gold breaking through the $3810 mark, reaching a new historical high of $3813.93 per ounce [11][12] - Key stocks in the precious metals sector, such as Shengda Resources and Zhaojin Mining, recorded substantial gains [12][13] Solid-State Battery Sector - The solid-state battery index showed strong performance, with companies like EVE Energy and Ganfeng Lithium seeing significant stock price increases [18][19] - Research advancements in solid-state battery technology from Tsinghua University contributed to the sector's positive momentum [20]

Report Overview - Report Title: How Will the Balance Evolve under High Supply and Demand Elasticity after the Supply Shock? - Research Institute: Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute - Date: September 2025 - Analyst: Chen Yixuan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - In the short term, the lithium market presents a combination of strong reality and weak expectations, with limited de - stocking and a surplus pattern. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies and reverse spread opportunities for LC2511 - 2512. In the long term, although the static balance remains in surplus, the high - growth demand will ease the apparent inventory build - up pressure in 2026, and the trading strategy can gradually shift from shorting on rallies to buying on dips [61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory Q3 Market Review - Since the end of June, lithium prices have rebounded rapidly from the bottom to 90,000 yuan, then fluctuated after a spike. From late June to mid - July, demand expectation correction drove the price to stabilize and rebound; from mid - July to mid - August, supply - side risks led to a rapid price increase; since mid - August, after the market priced in the shutdown of Jianxiaowo, the price corrected to account for the increased supply stimulated by high prices [2][5]. Supply - Side Uncertainty - Since mid - July, mining license risks in Jiangxi and Qinghai have intensified. The shutdown of some projects raised concerns about domestic supply risks, and the expiration of Jianxiaowo's mining license in August triggered market sentiment. However, since late August, the resumption of previously shut - down projects has cooled market enthusiasm [6][8]. Supply Pressure and Inventory - High prices have accelerated the manifestation of supply pressure. After the price rebound, the output of spodumene processing increased rapidly, offsetting the reduction in mica supply. Since late August, the generation of warehouse receipts has accelerated. Currently, domestic ore inventory is still at a moderately high level, and imported ore flows in stably, with new projects expanding production capacity, so there is no significant constraint on lithium salt supply [9][11][12]. Lithium Salt Trade and Resource Output - In terms of lithium salt shipments, South American shipments are in line with capacity ramp - up expectations, and Indonesia has brought marginal increments. The regional premium has changed the trade flow of lithium salts. The revised global lithium resource supply in 2025 is expected to increase by 270,000 tons LCE year - on - year, and the impact of mining license disruptions is limited. In 2026, the project reserve is still sufficient, with an expected year - on - year increase of 300,000 tons LCE, but some mica capacity may face supply uncertainty [16][19][22]. Terminal Demand - In the power market, new - energy passenger vehicle sales in China, Europe, and the US from January to August increased by 36%, 28%, and 4% year - on - year respectively. The new - energy commercial vehicle market is a highlight, with sales in China from January to August increasing by 66% year - on - year. The domestic and overseas energy - storage markets have continuously exceeded expectations, with high growth in domestic large - scale energy - storage project bids and a significant increase in overseas exports [30][36][41]. Market Balance - In the short term, the market is in a de - stocking phase, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited. The fundamental situation supports prices in the short term but cannot drive prices up independently. In the long term, from 2025 to 2026, the global lithium resource market remains in surplus, but the apparent inventory build - up in 2026 may narrow, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will decrease [48][51][55]. Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: Given the strong reality and weak expectations, limited de - stocking, and the expectation of project resumption, it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on price rallies and reverse spread opportunities for LC2511 - 2512. Long - term: As the demand growth will ease the inventory build - up pressure in 2026, the trading strategy can gradually shift from shorting on rallies to buying on dips [61].

每经AI快讯，9月29日，A股能源金属板块震荡走高，赣锋锂业涨超8%，中矿资源、华友钴业、腾远钴 业、天华新能、天齐锂业等个股跟涨。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry index in China has shown strong performance, with significant increases in various stocks, driven by a government plan aimed at stabilizing growth in the sector and rising gold prices reaching historical highs [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of September 29, 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) rose by 3.10%, with notable stock increases including Vanadium Titanium Co. (000629) up 10.00%, Xingye Silver Tin (000426) up 9.11%, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630) up 7.77% [1]. - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) also increased by 3.07%, with the latest price reported at 1.61 yuan [1]. Group 2: Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, issued the "Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" to support the sector [1]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - East Wu Securities forecasts that copper prices will remain strong due to anticipated supply contractions and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate amid weak demand [1]. - The gold market is influenced by a shift in the Federal Reserve's stance during the global central bank conference in August, with expectations of continued inflation and declining nominal interest rates, suggesting a broad potential for precious metals [1]. Group 4: ETF Composition - The non-ferrous metal industry index includes 50 prominent securities based on size and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the sector [2]. - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 50.35% of the total, including Zijin Mining (601899) and Northern Rare Earth (600111) [2].

Group 1: Solid-State Battery Developments - A research team led by Professor Zhang Qiang from Tsinghua University has made significant progress in polymer electrolytes for lithium batteries, developing a new fluorinated polyether electrolyte that enhances physical contact and ionic conductivity at solid-state interfaces, potentially aiding the development of mature solid-state battery products [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments have issued an action plan emphasizing solid-state batteries as a key focus area, aiming to support the transition of lithium and sodium batteries to solid-state technology and to establish 3 to 5 global leading enterprises by 2027 [4] - As of September 25, 21 solid-state battery concept stocks have seen net purchases exceeding 100 million yuan since September, with companies like CATL, Xian Dao Intelligent, Guoxuan High-Tech, and Ganfeng Lithium leading in net purchase amounts [4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - The solid-state battery sector has experienced a surge in stock prices, with several companies reaching their daily limit up due to positive market sentiment [3] - Brokerages have seen a rise in stock prices, with Guosheng Financial hitting the daily limit, and other firms like Xinda Securities, GF Securities, Huatai Securities, and CITIC Securities also experiencing gains [4] - The central bank has emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to encourage financial institutions to increase credit supply, which may positively impact the financial sector [7] Group 3: AI Infrastructure Investments - Alibaba has announced a three-year investment plan of 380 billion yuan for AI infrastructure, indicating a strong commitment to enhancing computational capabilities [11] - The demand for computational power is rapidly increasing due to the AI technology revolution, with estimates suggesting that the training requirements for large models double every 3 to 4 months [12] - Investment in computational infrastructure is expected to drive economic growth, with projections indicating that every yuan invested in the computational industry could generate 3 to 4 yuan in GDP growth [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant activity in the non-ferrous metal sector on September 29, with several companies experiencing notable stock price increases [1] Company Summaries - Ganfeng Lithium (01772.HK) rose by 6.01%, reaching HKD 39.5 [1] - Chalco International (02068.HK) increased by 4.41%, trading at HKD 2.37 [1] - Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) saw a rise of 4.02%, with shares priced at HKD 30.52 [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993.HK) gained 3.44%, with a stock price of HKD 14.45 [1] - China Aluminum (02600.HK) experienced a 3.97% increase, reaching HKD 7.85 [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358.HK) rose by 2.45%, trading at HKD 27.6 [1]