Group 1 - Lithium stocks continue to rise, with Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 6.01% at HKD 52.75 and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 4.65% at HKD 54 [1] - On December 22, the main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by nearly 5%, currently priced at CNY 115,300 per ton [1] - The Jiangxi Yichun Mining Project's environmental impact assessment has been publicly announced, indicating that further approvals are required for normal mining operations [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Securities suggests that the resumption of operations at the Yichun Jiangxiawo lithium mine may be slower than expected, with the mining license having expired on August 9 and operations currently suspended [1] - The resumption of mining activities is anticipated to be delayed until the first half of 2026, exacerbating the current tight supply of lithium and providing strong support for rising lithium prices [1]

商 品 研 2025 年 12 月 22 日 碳酸锂：泰利森新投产，关注需求淡季不淡的预期 兑现 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 109,720 | 5,280 | 13,800 | 18,960 | 10,420 | 38,920 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 33,894 | -3,737 | -13,972 | -63,166 | -1,733,534 | -134,576 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 57,834 | -11,035 | -47,922 | -150,448 | -445,298 | -116,267 | | | 盘面 | 2605合约（收盘价 ...

Group 1 - Lithium stocks continued to rise, with Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 6.01% at HKD 52.75 and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 4.65% at HKD 54 [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by nearly 5%, currently priced at CNY 115,300 per ton [1] - The environmental impact assessment for the lithium mining project in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province, was publicly announced, indicating that further approvals are required for normal mining operations [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Securities predicts that the resumption of operations at the Jiangxi Zhangxiawo lithium mine may be slower than expected, with the mining license having expired on August 9 and operations currently suspended [1] - The resumption of mining activities may be delayed until the first half of 2026 due to the ongoing approval processes, exacerbating the current tight supply of lithium and providing strong support for rising lithium prices [1]

每经AI快讯，港股锂业股早盘继续走高。截至发稿，天齐锂业(09696.HK)涨6.01%，报52.75港元；赣锋 锂业(01772.HK)涨4.65%，报54港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant upward trend, particularly in the non-ferrous metal sector, with the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) showing a notable increase and substantial trading volume [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 9:58 AM, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) opened with a gap up, rising by 2.5% and seeing a significant increase in trading volume, with 200,000 net subscriptions recorded during the session [1]. - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metal sector, such as Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold, have shown strong performance, with Zijin Mining increasing by 4.66% and Shandong Gold by 4.37% [2][4]. Group 2: Commodity Trends - Precious metals are experiencing a surge, with spot gold rising over 1% to exceed $4,383 per ounce, setting a new historical high, while silver has also reached a record of over $67 per ounce [3]. - The overall non-ferrous metal sector has seen an impressive increase of over 85% this year, indicating a strong market performance [4]. Group 3: Economic and Policy Context - Following the December Federal Reserve policy decisions, a monthly operation of $40 billion in reserve management purchases is expected to provide liquidity support to the market [7]. - The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% to combat rising inflation, marking the highest rate in 30 years [7]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a leading investment vehicle, covering a wide range of metals including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing super cycle in the non-ferrous sector [18][20]. - The ETF has a high concentration of key metals, with copper accounting for 31% and gold for 14%, making it a competitive option in the market [20]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by factors such as declining real interest rates and increasing central bank gold purchases, with forecasts suggesting gold prices could exceed $4,500 per ounce in the near future [15][16]. - The copper market is also expected to see a growing supply-demand gap, with projections indicating that copper prices may reach new highs due to robust demand from emerging sectors like AI and renewable energy [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks continue to rise, driven by increasing lithium carbonate prices and regulatory developments in mining projects [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Tianqi Lithium (002466)(09696) increased by 6.01%, reaching HKD 52.75 [1] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) rose by 4.65%, trading at HKD 54 [1] Group 2: Market Developments - On December 22, the main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged nearly 5%, currently priced at CNY 115,300 per ton [1] - The Jiangxi Yichun bidding website announced the first environmental impact assessment for the lithium mining project in Yifeng County, indicating ongoing regulatory processes [1] Group 3: Regulatory Insights - Legal expert Cao Xusheng stated that the environmental impact assessment is a standard approval step, with further applications and approvals required for normal mining operations [1] - Huachuang Securities predicts that the resumption of operations at the Yichun Jiangxiawo lithium mine may be delayed until the first half of 2026, exacerbating current lithium supply constraints and supporting rising lithium prices [1]

Group 1 - Lithium stocks continue to rise, with Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 6.01% at HKD 52.75 and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 4.65% at HKD 54 [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by nearly 5%, currently priced at CNY 115,300 per ton [1] - The environmental impact assessment for the lithium mining project in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province, has been publicly disclosed, indicating that further approvals are needed for normal mining operations [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Securities suggests that the resumption of operations at the Jiangxi Zhangxiawo lithium mine may be slower than expected, with the mining license having expired on August 9 and operations currently suspended [1] - The ongoing environmental assessment and subsequent approval processes may delay the resumption of mining until the first half of 2026, exacerbating the current tight lithium supply situation [1] - The increase in lithium prices is strongly supported by the supply constraints in the market [1]

Group 1 - Platinum prices reached a peak of $1987 per ounce on December 19, marking the highest level since late July 2008, with an annual increase of over 110% [1] - Silver prices surged above $67.49 per ounce, setting a new historical high [1] - The SHFE gold price hit 987 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) rose by 0.96% as of December 22, 2025, with notable increases in stocks such as Yahua Group (002497) up 1.90%, and China Aluminum (601600) up 1.84% [1] - The Nonferrous Metals ETF (159880) increased by 0.77%, with the latest price at 1.84 yuan [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Nonferrous Metals Industry Index account for 52.34% of the index, including Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) [2]

Group 1 - Tianqi Lithium Industries saw a stock increase of 1.54% on December 19, with a trading volume of 3.558 billion yuan. The financing buy-in amount for the day was 499 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 338 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy-in of 161 million yuan. As of December 19, the total financing and securities lending balance was 3.315 billion yuan [1] - The financing balance of Tianqi Lithium Industries on December 19 was 3.305 billion yuan, accounting for 4.23% of the circulating market value, which is above the 90th percentile level over the past year, indicating a high level [1] - On the securities lending side, Tianqi Lithium Industries had a repayment of 13,300 shares and a sell amount of 26,700 shares on December 19, with a selling amount of 1.4124 million yuan. The remaining securities lending volume was 179,900 shares, with a balance of 9.5167 million yuan, also above the 80th percentile level over the past year, indicating a high level [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, the number of shareholders of Tianqi Lithium Industries reached 310,100, an increase of 14.52% compared to the previous period. The average circulating shares per person decreased by 12.68% to 4,759 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Tianqi Lithium Industries reported an operating income of 7.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.50%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 180 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 103.16% [2] - Since its A-share listing, Tianqi Lithium Industries has distributed a total of 7.868 billion yuan in dividends, with 7.137 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [2] Group 3 - As of September 30, 2025, the largest circulating shareholder of Tianqi Lithium Industries was Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 68.1591 million shares, an increase of 3.3416 million shares compared to the previous period. China Securities Finance Corporation held 27.8536 million shares, unchanged from the previous period [3] - The sixth largest circulating shareholder was Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, holding 17.58 million shares, a decrease of 816,800 shares compared to the previous period. The seventh largest was E Fund CSI 300 ETF, holding 12.7261 million shares, down by 399,300 shares [3] - The ninth largest circulating shareholder was Southern CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF, which was a new entrant with 8.4256 million shares. The tenth largest was Harvest CSI 300 ETF, holding 8.1817 million shares, a decrease of 113,900 shares compared to the previous period [3]

Group 1 - China Shenhua announced a merger and acquisition plan exceeding 130 billion yuan, intending to purchase stakes in China Energy Group and Guoyuan Power, along with other equity acquisitions [2][7] - The A-share market is seeing active mergers and acquisitions, with 32 listed companies disclosing restructuring progress this week [2][7] - Former Chongqing Mayor Huang Qifan predicts that the RMB exchange rate against the USD may rise to around 6:1 in the next decade, which could enhance trade balance and economic development [2][7] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights increasing factors for RMB appreciation, suggesting investors adapt their asset allocation accordingly, with about 19% of industries potentially benefiting from improved profit margins due to currency appreciation [2][7] - Shanxi Province has lifted the ban on fireworks, transitioning from a complete ban to scientific restrictions, which may stimulate industry growth and related consumption [3][8] - Seven chief strategists from major brokerages forecast a likely upward trend for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in 2026, driven by technology and overseas expansion [3][8] Group 3 - The lithium battery industry is experiencing positive developments, with Shengxin Lithium Energy signing a framework agreement for lithium salt product supply worth over 20 billion yuan from 2026 to 2030 [3][8] - Tianqi Lithium's third-phase chemical-grade lithium concentrate expansion project is set to reach an annual capacity of 2.14 million tons, ensuring raw material supply [3][8] - Three new stocks will be available for subscription next week, covering tourism, new materials, and optical communication sectors [3][8] Group 4 - Several central banks, including those of Russia, the UK, Mexico, and Chile, have announced interest rate cuts, leading to a rise in gold and silver prices, with silver reaching a historic high of over 67 USD per ounce [4][9][10] - The first L3-level autonomous driving special license plate has been issued to Changan Automobile, marking a shift from technology validation to mass production application [4][10]