股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 公司名稱: 天齊鋰業股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2025年11月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 09696 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 164,122,200 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 164,122,200 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 164,122,200 | RMB | | | 1 RMB | | 164,122,200 | | 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | ...

Core Insights - The energy metals sector experienced a decline of 1.85% on November 3, with Yongxing Materials leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3976.52, up 0.55%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, up 0.19% [1] Energy Metals Sector Performance - Yongxing Materials (002756) closed at 46.94, down 4.52%, with a trading volume of 322,600 shares and a transaction value of 1.517 billion [2] - Other notable performers included: - Blue Electric Mining (600711) at 10.66, down 4.31%, with a transaction value of 2.032 billion [2] - Tengyuan Diamond (301219) at 66.90, down 4.26%, with a transaction value of 553 million [2] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) at 68.32, down 1.01%, with a transaction value of 6.171 billion [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The energy metals sector saw a net outflow of 1.269 billion from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.263 billion [2][3] - Specific stock capital flows included: - Huayou Cobalt (603799) with a main fund outflow of 355 million [3] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) with a main fund outflow of 224 million [3] - Yongxing Materials (002756) with a main fund outflow of 86 million [3]

Core Insights - The lithium battery materials industry has shown significant improvement in the third quarter of 2025, with many companies turning losses into profits and a clear trend of recovery in the sector [1][3] Group 1: Performance of Positive Electrode Material Companies - Tianqi Lithium's revenue for the first three quarters was 7.397 billion yuan, down 26.5%, but it achieved a net profit of 180 million yuan, marking a turnaround [2] - Ganfeng Lithium reported a revenue of 14.625 billion yuan, a growth of 5.02%, with a net profit of 2.552 billion yuan, also a turnaround [2] - Huaneng Technology and other companies have seen significant profit increases, with Huaneng's revenue reaching 23.226 billion yuan, up 46.27%, and a net profit of 645 million yuan, up 31.51% [2][3] Group 2: Trends in Positive Electrode Materials - High-pressure compact lithium iron phosphate has become a focal point for companies, driven by strong demand in the energy storage sector and advancements in technology [3][4] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has rebounded, maintaining a range of 80,300 to 81,700 yuan per ton, contributing to the positive performance of many positive electrode material companies [4] - Major companies like Longpan Technology have secured large orders from leading firms, enhancing their market position [4] Group 3: Performance of Negative Electrode Material Companies - The negative electrode materials sector has also seen a recovery, with a total shipment of 201.1 million tons in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.1% [7] - Shanshan Co. achieved a net profit of 33.14 million yuan in Q1, marking a successful turnaround, and its stock price has rebounded significantly [7][8] - Companies like BTR and Putailai are expanding their overseas business and solid-state battery technology, contributing to their recovery and growth [8]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.81% on October 31, with 16 industries experiencing gains, led by the pharmaceutical and media sectors, which rose by 2.42% and 2.39% respectively [2] - The telecommunications and electronics sectors saw the largest declines, with drops of 4.07% and 3.06% respectively [2] - Overall, there was a net outflow of 62.903 billion yuan in the main funds across the two markets, with 13 industries seeing net inflows [2] Industry Performance Pharmaceutical and Media Sectors - The pharmaceutical sector had the highest net inflow of funds, totaling 4.494 billion yuan, contributing to its 2.42% increase [2] - The media sector followed closely with a net inflow of 4.029 billion yuan and a daily increase of 2.39% [2] Electronics and Telecommunications Sectors - The electronics sector experienced the largest net outflow of funds, amounting to 28.762 billion yuan, while the telecommunications sector saw a net outflow of 11.113 billion yuan [2] Nonferrous Metals Industry - The nonferrous metals sector declined by 2.03%, with a total net outflow of 8.146 billion yuan [3] - Out of 137 stocks in this sector, 40 stocks rose, including one that hit the daily limit, while 95 stocks fell, with two hitting the daily limit down [3] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow were Hunan Gold (500 million yuan), Ding Sheng New Materials (215 million yuan), and Xingye Silver Tin (129 million yuan) [3] Top Gainers in Nonferrous Metals - Hunan Gold: +7.09%, turnover rate 10.90%, net inflow 499.67 million yuan [4] - Ding Sheng New Materials: +9.97%, turnover rate 9.75%, net inflow 215.48 million yuan [4] - Xingye Silver Tin: +0.07%, turnover rate 3.49%, net inflow 128.84 million yuan [4] Top Losers in Nonferrous Metals - Northern Rare Earth: -4.13%, net outflow 1.283 billion yuan [5] - Tianqi Lithium: -4.09%, net outflow 802.29 million yuan [5] - Ganfeng Lithium: -4.63%, net outflow 732.31 million yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [2][17]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry has shown a significant increase, with a 3.70% rise over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.72 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 industries [3][13]. - The energy metals sector has experienced a notable increase of 8.72%, while precious metals have seen a decline of 9.37% [19][22]. - The report highlights the impact of macroeconomic factors, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which have contributed to the upward trend in metal prices [51][67]. Market Review - As of October 30, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has risen by 79.55% year-to-date, leading the market performance among all sectors [13][19]. - The industrial metals segment is benefiting from a global easing cycle, with copper and aluminum prices gradually recovering [68]. - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have shown volatility, influenced by changes in investor sentiment and central bank purchasing trends [37][67]. Price Analysis - Key prices as of October 30, 2025: - LME Copper: $10,930/ton - LME Aluminum: $2,870/ton - LME Lead: $2,022/ton - LME Zinc: $3,044.50/ton - LME Nickel: $15,250/ton - LME Tin: $35,720/ton [26][68]. - For precious metals: - COMEX Gold: $4,038.30/oz (up $145.7 since early October) - COMEX Silver: $48.73/oz (up $1.31 since early October) [37][67]. Sector Performance - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within the industry: - Western Mining (601168) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) in the industrial metals sector [70]. - Xiamen Tungsten (600549) in the small metals sector [68][70]. - The energy metals sector, particularly lithium carbonate, is highlighted for its potential growth due to advancements in energy storage and solid-state battery technologies [69].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and "Maintain" [7] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the release of new production capacity, which may drive performance recovery [1] - The company's net profit is showing continuous recovery, and as a leader in the lithium resource industry, it has significant earnings elasticity in the future [1] - The improvement in gross margin in Q3 is attributed to the rise in lithium prices, with the average price of lithium carbonate reaching 73,000 RMB/ton, up 11.91% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The demand for lithium is expected to remain strong due to high growth in energy storage, supporting the growth of lithium carbonate demand [3] - The company is set to increase its lithium concentrate production capacity with the expected launch of the Greenbushes CGP3 project by the end of 2025 [4] - The company's earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.791 billion, 2.827 billion, and 3.553 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.09, 1.72, and 2.16 RMB [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.565 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 29.66% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.06% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 was 95.485 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 119.26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 580.70% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 7.397 billion RMB, down 26.50% year-on-year, with a net profit of 180 million RMB, up 103.16% year-on-year [1] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 37.57%, improving quarter-on-quarter by 3.11 percentage points, although it decreased by 6.56 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The total expense ratio for the first three quarters was 2.94%, down 2.62 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market Outlook - The lithium price is expected to maintain an upward trend due to supply constraints and strong demand from the energy storage sector [3] - The domestic lithium carbonate social inventory has decreased from 140,000 tons in early August to around 130,000 tons by October 23, indicating tightening supply [3] Production Capacity Expansion - The company has established an annual lithium concentrate production capacity of 1.62 million tons, with the Greenbushes CGP3 project expected to add another 520,000 tons by December 2025 [4] - The company has also commenced production of a new lithium hydroxide project with an annual capacity of 30,000 tons [4] Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company's A/H shares is set at 68.30 RMB and 64.24 HKD respectively, based on a PB ratio of 2.41 for 2026 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, the price of lithium carbonate may maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the upside space is restricted by the expected increase in future supply. The current low - inventory pattern and demand resilience support the price, and the reluctance of lithium salt manufacturers to sell exacerbates the shortage of spot goods. However, the gradual release of new production capacity such as Dazhong Mining, the supply elasticity after the commissioning of Tianqi Lithium's production line, and the risk of a month - on - month decline in new energy vehicle sales will suppress the momentum for the price to continuously break through the previous high [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Lithium carbonate futures market data change analysis** - **Main contract and basis**: On October 30, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 82,900 yuan/ton, up 1.5% from the previous day. The price center in the past week gradually shifted up from 79,520 yuan/ton to 82,900 yuan/ton, and market sentiment recovered. The basis weakened slightly from - 2,340 yuan/ton on October 29 to - 2,600 yuan/ton [1] - **Position and trading volume**: The position of the main contract continued to rise, reaching 506,900 lots on October 30, a 17.5% increase from 431,200 lots a week ago. The trading volume was 659,400 lots, which declined from the previous day but remained at a high level [1] - **Analysis of industrial chain supply - demand and inventory changes** - **Supply side**: The price of spodumene concentrate remained stable at 7,330 yuan/ton, while the price of lepidolite concentrate rose 3% to 3,775 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate remained at 74.39%, and the output in October may reach a record high [2] - **Demand side**: The retail sales of new energy vehicles from October 1 - 26 were flat year - on - year, but the demand for power batteries was strong, with the prices of ternary cells rising 0.89% - 1.96% within the week. The pre - placement of orders for energy storage and commercial vehicles further boosted the demand for lithium - battery materials [2] - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: Lithium carbonate inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks, dropping to 130,400 tons on October 30, a 1.7% decrease from the previous week, and the upstream destocking speed accelerated [2] - **Market summary**: In the short term, the price of lithium carbonate may maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the upside space is restricted by the expected increase in future supply. The current low - inventory pattern and demand resilience support the price, and the reluctance of lithium salt manufacturers to sell exacerbates the shortage of spot goods. However, the gradual release of new production capacity such as Dazhong Mining, the supply elasticity after the commissioning of Tianqi Lithium's production line, and the risk of a month - on - month decline in new energy vehicle sales will suppress the momentum for the price to continuously break through the previous high [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On October 30, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 83,400 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day; the basis was - 3,100 yuan/ton, down 19.23% from the previous day; the position of the main contract was 532,871 lots, up 5.13% from the previous day; the trading volume of the main contract was 829,117 lots, up 25.73% from the previous day. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 80,300 yuan/ton, the market price of spodumene concentrate remained unchanged at 7,330 yuan/ton, the market price of lepidolite concentrate rose 3% to 3,775 yuan/ton, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose 2.91% to 106,000 yuan/ton, the price of power - type ternary materials rose 0.22% to 139,000 yuan/ton, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate rose 0.59% to 35,805 yuan/ton [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot market quotation** - On October 30, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 79,881 yuan/ton, up 674 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,200 - 81,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 80,000 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 77,300 - 78,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 77,800 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The futures price of lithium carbonate rose significantly, and the center of the main contract shifted up to the range of 82,200 - 85,000 yuan/ton. Currently, the operating rate of downstream material manufacturers continues to rise, and demand supports spot transactions. However, as the price rises, the reluctance of lithium salt manufacturers to sell intensifies, and the market transaction situation is dull. On the supply side, the overall operating rate of lithium salt manufacturers remains high, with the operating rates of the spodumene and salt - lake ends both maintaining above 60%, becoming the main supply force. It is expected that the total output of lithium carbonate in October will continue to rise and is expected to break through the historical high. The demand side is stronger. The new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly in both the commercial and passenger vehicle fields, and together with the energy storage market, it presents a pattern of strong supply and demand, continuously driving the demand for lithium - battery materials. In general, although the supply of lithium salt continued to grow steadily in October, due to the strong growth in demand continuously consuming inventory, the upstream inventory is currently at a low level, and the market has presented a significant de - stocking pattern [6] - **Downstream consumption situation** - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from October 1 - 26, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 901,000 units, a 0% year - on - year increase compared with the same period in October last year, and an 8% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 9,771,000 units, a 22% year - on - year increase; from October 1 - 26, the wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles by domestic manufacturers was 1,034,000 units, a 4% year - on - year increase compared with the same period in October last year, and a 5% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale this year was 11,480,000 units, a 29% year - on - year increase [7] - **Industry news** - On October 28, Dazhong Mining's (001203.SZ) "Mining Plan for Jada Lithium Mine Mineral Resources" was officially approved by the Ministry of Natural Resources, with an annual mining scale of 2.6 million tons/year. The spodumene mining scale is among the top in the industry, and it can produce about 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year after reaching full production. This key node marks that it is closer to obtaining the mining license and will enter the "production capacity implementation sprint" stage. This mine is the core carrier of the company's strategic transformation from the traditional iron ore field to the new energy mineral track. The approval not only verifies its strength and responsibility in dimensions such as resource development efficiency, safety risk management and control, and green and sustainable operation, but also locks in the certainty of the "exploration - to - mining" process through the full - process authoritative compliance procedures of the Ministry of Natural Resources [9] - On October 20, Tianqi Lithium announced that after repeated commissioning and optimization, the first bag of battery - grade lithium hydroxide products from its 30,000 - ton/year lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu passed the sampling inspection by the company's internal laboratory, and all parameters were confirmed to meet the battery - grade lithium hydroxide standard. Subsequently, the company will continue to commission and optimize this project to achieve continuous and stable production of products and flexible switching of lithium carbonate [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides data charts on the lithium carbonate futures main contract and basis, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices, lithium concentrate prices, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte prices, ternary precursor prices, ternary material prices, lithium iron phosphate prices, lithium carbonate operating rate, lithium carbonate inventory, and cell selling prices, with data sources including iFinD, SMM, and Shanghai Steel Union [10][13][15]

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for collaboration between China and the United States to address significant global issues, emphasizing the importance of joint efforts in various sectors [4] - The revenue of large-scale cultural enterprises in China increased by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters [4] - The establishment of a special fund for strategic emerging industries by state-owned enterprises is expected to support the aerospace industry, with specific stocks identified as potential beneficiaries [5] Industry Updates - The "robotics + AI + low-altitude" integration is expected to open new market opportunities, with solid-state battery industrialization anticipated to accelerate, highlighting related stocks [5] - The storage sector in the U.S. continues to perform well, with institutions predicting a significant improvement in the performance of storage-related stocks [5] Company Focus - Tianyu Co., Ltd. reported a net profit of 71.42 million yuan for the third quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 123.9% [6] - Mingyang Circuit achieved a net profit of 32.98 million yuan in the third quarter, marking a year-on-year growth of 1121.3% [6] - Tianqi Lithium Industries recorded a net profit of 180 million yuan in the first three quarters, supported by forward-looking strategic planning [6] - Hanyu Pharmaceutical reported an operating income of 683 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with operating cash flow reaching a historical high for the same period [6] Market Review and Outlook - On October 30, the market experienced fluctuations, with major indices showing declines, particularly the ChiNext Index which fell nearly 2% [7] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.42 trillion yuan, an increase of 165.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [7] - The report notes a mixed performance across sectors, with lithium mining stocks gaining strength while computing hardware stocks faced declines [7] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with a focus on performance growth and cyclical stock styles attracting more capital [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on October 30, 2025, with the lithium mining sector showing significant gains, particularly in the afternoon session [1] - The CSI Rare Metals Theme Index (930632) rose by 2.25%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Tianhua New Energy (300390) up 14.69%, and Yongxing Materials (002756) and Jiangte Motor (002176) hitting the 10% daily limit [1] - The Rare Metals ETF (561800) closed up 2.46%, and over the past week, it has accumulated a rise of 9.24% [1] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate prices have shown a significant increase week-on-week, driven by strong demand from downstream lithium salt manufacturers and a limited supply of available inventory [2] - The price of lithium cobalt has risen above 370,000 yuan/ton, influenced by the rising costs of cobalt chloride and lithium cobalt oxide, alongside robust demand from the consumer electronics sector [2] - Tianqi Lithium reported a net profit of 95.49 million yuan for Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 119.26%, with a total net profit of approximately 180 million yuan for the first three quarters, up 103.16% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index accounted for 59.91% of the index, with Northern Rare Earth (600111) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) being the top two [3] - The top ten stocks include companies like Huayou Cobalt (603799) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460), indicating a strong concentration in the rare metals sector [3][5]

Group 1 - The Chinese government will suspend the implementation of export control measures announced on October 9 for one year, indicating the competitive strength of China's lithium battery industry chain [1] - The previous export control measures included restrictions on high-performance battery cells, lithium battery equipment, and advanced materials, aimed at limiting competitive technology exports [1] - The demand for batteries is expected to grow significantly due to the surge in data center needs driven by global AI development, benefiting the entire industry chain [1] Group 2 - The lithium battery industry has experienced prolonged losses in 2023, but recent price increases have created significant profit elasticity [2] - The core product, 6F, has seen a price increase of over 50% since September, reaching above 87,000 [2] - The demand for energy storage is accelerating, with monthly demand exceeding 120,000 tons, indicating a strong market recovery [2] Group 3 - Relevant Hong Kong stocks in the lithium battery industry include CATL, BYD, Longpan Technology, Zhongchuang Innovation, Ruipu Lanjun, and Shuangdeng [3] - Lithium mining companies mentioned are Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium [3]