Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations on December 23, with the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) rising over 2% at one point, reaching a new high since its listing, driven by significant net subscriptions [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a net subscription of 31 million units, with an estimated net subscription amount exceeding 50 million yuan during the trading session [1]. - The ETF's performance indicators show a year-to-date increase of 87.92% and a 120-day increase of 62.58% [1]. - The ETF's top ten constituent stocks mostly experienced gains, with Shandong Gold (600547) up 6.72% and Tianqi Lithium rising over 3% [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The spot gold price continued to rise, nearing $4,500 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 70% [5]. - Lithium carbonate futures surged over 3%, continuing a trend of price increases, with expectations of further price support due to low inventory levels [7]. - Copper prices reached record highs, with forecasts suggesting potential increases to $13,000 per ton in the second quarter of 2026 [8]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The nonferrous metal sector is projected to maintain strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 90% year-to-date, positioning it as a leading industry [12]. - The 2026 outlook for basic metals, particularly copper and aluminum, is optimistic due to expected demand improvements and supply constraints [10]. - The demand for lithium and cobalt is anticipated to grow, with lithium prices expected to continue their upward trend due to supply and demand dynamics [11].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up over 1% and the ChiNext Index up over 3%, with a total trading volume of 1.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 87 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The market surge is attributed to three main factors: strong performance of brokerage stocks, significant trading activity in broad-based ETFs, and comments from a former Japanese central bank official opposing early interest rate hikes, easing global liquidity concerns [1] Sector Performance - The optical module sector experienced a strong breakout, with New Yi Sheng and Zhong Ji Xu Chuang topping the A-share capital inflow rankings. The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) surged 5% with a net subscription of 162 million units [1][6] - The "anti-involution" theme also performed well, with lithium carbonate futures seeing a sudden spike, leading to a 3.48% increase in the Chemical ETF (516020) and a 3.27% rise in the Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) [2] Institutional Insights - Investment institutions are optimistic about the A-share market transitioning from a structural bull market to a more comprehensive bull market by 2026, with expectations of a gradual recovery in earnings [3][4] - J.P. Morgan highlighted that earnings will be key to the upward momentum of Chinese assets next year, with over one-third of sub-sectors currently in the revenue expansion quadrant [4] Key Stocks and ETFs - The top-performing stocks included Lian Te Technology, New Yi Sheng, and Tian Fu Communication, with significant price increases [6][7] - The Chemical ETF (516020) and Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) have seen substantial inflows, indicating strong market interest in these sectors [13][19] Lithium Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate futures market saw a dramatic increase, with prices nearing 109,860 yuan per ton, driven by supply-demand dynamics and regulatory changes affecting mining licenses [23] - The storage industry in China is expected to grow significantly over the next 3-5 years, driven by AI and data center demands, which will boost lithium demand [15] Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the chemical industry is expected to see improved profitability and dividend capabilities, with a focus on the "anti-involution" and global AI demand cycles [17] - The nonferrous metals sector is anticipated to benefit from supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions, making it a core asset allocation target for the medium to long term [24]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the National Lithium Battery Material and Product Quality Inspection Center in Suining is a strategic move to enhance the quality of the lithium battery industry, aiming to transform Suining into a "lithium battery capital" with a focus on quality improvement for small and medium-sized enterprises [1][6]. Group 1: Quality Improvement Initiatives - The National Lithium Quality Inspection Center provides high-precision testing services, enabling companies to quickly identify and rectify performance issues in lithium battery materials, thus enhancing their competitiveness [1][2]. - Since 2025, the center has delivered over 600 batches of critical testing services to lithium battery enterprises, effectively turning testing technology into a competitive advantage for these companies [2]. Group 2: One-Stop Service Center - The Suining Quality Infrastructure One-Stop Service Center integrates various resources such as innovation, certification, and market access, providing tailored support to enterprises across the entire lithium battery supply chain [2][3]. - The service center has assisted companies in applying for 59 invention patents related to lithium battery materials, demonstrating its role in fostering innovation and technical advancement [3]. Group 3: Industry Collaboration and Support - The service center organizes regular quality management experience exchange activities, facilitating collaboration among 13 enterprises that have collectively achieved a supply chain integration amounting to 2.509 billion [4]. - Leading companies like Tianqi Lithium and Sichuan Jianghuai are encouraged to take on leadership roles, promoting quality improvements throughout the supply chain and sharing advanced management practices [5]. Group 4: Comprehensive Quality Strategy - The three-dimensional empowerment system in Suining, which includes precise diagnostics, a networked service ecosystem, and leadership from key enterprises, is designed to embed high-quality standards throughout the lithium battery industry [6].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks continue to rise, with Ganfeng Lithium up 5.28% and Tianqi Lithium up 4.23%, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the lithium industry [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest update, Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) is trading at 56.8 HKD, while Tianqi Lithium (002466)(09696) is at 54.15 HKD [1] - Lithium carbonate futures for the 2605 contract saw a peak increase of 4%, reaching 118,580 RMB/ton [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's lithium branch released a report on the lithium industry's performance for November 2025, highlighting a gradual increase in lithium carbonate prices and greater price volatility [1] - The third-quarter reports from lithium companies show a recovery in performance, contributing to optimistic market expectations for future lithium prices [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, market inventory is being depleted at an accelerated pace, with minor fluctuations in lithium salt production and lithium extraction from spodumene and lepidolite [1] - On the demand side, there is a surge in sales of new energy vehicles ahead of subsidy reductions, alongside strong performance in energy storage [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.29%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.14%. The materials sector showed strength, with Zijin Mining up 1.19% and Tianqi Lithium up 2.02%. However, Kuaishou fell by 3.3% due to a cyber attack on its platform [1] - Huatai Securities noted that the combination of early-year reallocation and RMB appreciation may support an improvement in the funding environment in the next phase. Defensive dividend assets in the Hong Kong stock market are expected to gain renewed attention as a core option [1] - By 2026, three catalysts related to "expectation differences" are anticipated for the Hong Kong stock market: the formation of consensus on RMB appreciation, a stable Sino-U.S. relationship in the first half of 2026, and breakthroughs in key sectors like AI and semiconductors that could drive independent performance in the tech sector [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities indicated that after a unilateral rise in September, the Hong Kong stock market has experienced fluctuations due to changing overseas macro expectations since October. Quality assets are now entering a high cost-performance range, supported by continuous capital inflow and improved profit expectations [1] - Huatai Securities believes the market is still in a left-side layout phase, with the right-side turning point not yet clear. There is strong consensus on an early spring rally, but year-end supply and demand pressures create uncertainty for a "Santa rally" [2] - China Galaxy suggested focusing on the technology sector as a long-term investment theme, which is expected to rebound after previous adjustments. The consumer sector is also anticipated to receive significant policy support, with current valuations at relatively low levels, indicating substantial long-term upside potential [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "Golden Award" annual excellence company selection by Gelonghui highlights outstanding companies and their secretaries, emphasizing the importance of corporate governance and investor relations in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Award Winners - Eight individuals received the "Annual Excellence Secretary" award, including Wu Shijun from Aier Eye Hospital, Zhu Qiming from Fushouyuan, Zhang Yuxin from Hisense Home Appliances, Liu Xiaodong from Longi Green Energy, Li Liangyu from Robotech, Zhang Wenyu from Tianqi Lithium, Wan Guilong from XJ Electric, and Han Min from WuXi AppTec [1]. - The award recognizes secretaries for their exceptional performance in corporate governance, equity management, information disclosure, and investor relations [1]. Group 2: Evaluation Process - The selection process for the awards involved quantitative data analysis and expert review to determine the final results [1]. - The "Golden Award" aims to create a valuable reference for investors by ranking listed companies and unicorns across various stock exchanges, including the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, and NASDAQ [2].

Group 1 - The main contract for lithium carbonate surged to a high of 116,460 yuan/ton, marking the highest price of the year, with a midday increase of 5.16% [1] - The lithium sector index rose nearly 3%, with Tianqi Lithium, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Rongjie Co., Ltd. leading in gains [1] - Trading volume reached 5680 contracts, with a total open interest of 575,000 contracts and a daily increase of 32,064 contracts [2] Group 2 - The resumption of operations at the Jiangxi lithium mine by CATL is currently hindered by environmental assessments, mining rights changes, and safety permits, with the mining rights change being a critical bottleneck [5] - The optimistic timeline suggests that trial production could begin by June 2026, while a conservative estimate pushes this to September 2026, indicating limited supply pressure in the first half of 2026 and strong short-term upward momentum for lithium prices [5] - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau has announced plans to revoke 27 mining rights, with ecological restoration obligations falling to the original rights holders [5]

Group 1 - Lithium stocks continue to rise, with Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 6.01% at HKD 52.75 and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 4.65% at HKD 54 [1] - On December 22, the main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by nearly 5%, currently priced at CNY 115,300 per ton [1] - The Jiangxi Yichun Mining Project's environmental impact assessment has been publicly announced, indicating that further approvals are required for normal mining operations [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Securities suggests that the resumption of operations at the Yichun Jiangxiawo lithium mine may be slower than expected, with the mining license having expired on August 9 and operations currently suspended [1] - The resumption of mining activities is anticipated to be delayed until the first half of 2026, exacerbating the current tight supply of lithium and providing strong support for rising lithium prices [1]

商 品 研 2025 年 12 月 22 日 碳酸锂：泰利森新投产，关注需求淡季不淡的预期 兑现 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 liuhongru@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 109,720 | 5,280 | 13,800 | 18,960 | 10,420 | 38,920 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 33,894 | -3,737 | -13,972 | -63,166 | -1,733,534 | -134,576 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 57,834 | -11,035 | -47,922 | -150,448 | -445,298 | -116,267 | | | 盘面 | 2605合约（收盘价 ...

Group 1 - Lithium stocks continued to rise, with Tianqi Lithium (09696) up 6.01% at HKD 52.75 and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) up 4.65% at HKD 54 [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by nearly 5%, currently priced at CNY 115,300 per ton [1] - The environmental impact assessment for the lithium mining project in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province, was publicly announced, indicating that further approvals are required for normal mining operations [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Securities predicts that the resumption of operations at the Jiangxi Zhangxiawo lithium mine may be slower than expected, with the mining license having expired on August 9 and operations currently suspended [1] - The resumption of mining activities may be delayed until the first half of 2026 due to the ongoing approval processes, exacerbating the current tight supply of lithium and providing strong support for rising lithium prices [1]