（文章来源：中国证券报·中证金牛座） 其中，一家不愿具名的企业负责人对记者表示："公司产品供不应求，产销正常，现在没有什么库存。" 上海钢联数据显示，2025年下半年以来，电池级碳酸锂价格持续上涨，从7万元/吨左右一度涨至17万 元/吨左右。 业内人士表示，碳酸锂价格的回暖，有望带动拥有自有矿和盐湖的生产企业业绩修复。 1月30日，锂矿板块大跌，截至14:40，锂矿板块跌超6%，西部矿业、中矿资源、天齐锂业等跌超7%。 对此，赣锋锂业、雅化集团等多家锂矿企业回应中国证券报·中证金牛座记者称，公司生产经营一切正 常。 ...

1月30日，锂矿板块大跌，截至14:40，锂矿板块跌超6%，西部矿业（601168）、中矿资源 （002738）、天齐锂业（002466）等跌超7%。 业内人士表示，碳酸锂价格的回暖，有望带动拥有自有矿和盐湖的生产企业业绩修复。 其中，一家不愿具名的企业负责人对记者表示："公司产品供不应求，产销正常，现在没有什么库存。" 上海钢联（300226）数据显示，2025年下半年以来，电池级碳酸锂价格持续上涨，从7万元/吨左右一度 涨至17万元/吨左右。 对此，赣锋锂业（002460）、雅化集团（002497）等多家锂矿企业回应中国证券报.中证金牛座记者 称，公司生产经营一切正常。 ...

业内人士表示，碳酸锂价格的回暖，有望带动拥有自有矿和盐湖的生产企业业绩修复。 1月30日，锂矿板块大跌，截至14:40，锂矿板块跌超6%，西部矿业、中矿资源、天齐锂业等跌超7%。 对此，赣锋锂业、雅化集团等多家锂矿企业回应中国证券报·中证金牛座记者称，公司生产经营一切正 常。 其中，一家不愿具名的企业负责人对记者表示："公司产品供不应求，产销正常，现在没有什么库存。" 上海钢联数据显示，2025年下半年以来，电池级碳酸锂价格持续上涨，从7万元/吨左右一度涨至17万 元/吨左右。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective decline in lithium mining stocks, with notable drops including Nepean Mining falling nearly 12% and several other companies hitting the daily limit down [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate experienced a limit down, with a decrease of 11%, currently priced at 148,200 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performances included Nepean Mining down 11.46% with a market cap of 8.152 billion yuan, and other companies like Meiyuan Co. and Tibet Zhufeng both down 10% [2] - Other significant declines included Western Mining down 9.99% with a market cap of 84.8 billion yuan, and Tianqi Lithium down 8.74% with a market cap of 88.5 billion yuan [2]

从评级调整方向来看，7只个股评级维持不变，1只个股为首次评级。 从获买入评级个股所属Wind行业来看，材料Ⅱ、商业和专业服务、资本货物买入评级个股数量最多， 分别有4只、1只、1只。 Wind数据显示，1月28日，共有8只个股获券商买入评级，其中3只个股公布了目标价格。按最高目标价 计算，赣锋锂业、雅化集团、太阳纸业目标涨幅排名居前，涨幅分别达50.62%、45.93%、25.16%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to reach a performance turning point in 2025, with many companies reporting improved earnings due to rising prices of key lithium materials and sustained demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Among 28 lithium battery companies that disclosed earnings forecasts, 11 are expected to see profit increases, and 6 are projected to turn losses into profits, indicating a recovery in the lithium battery materials sector [2]. - Key players in lithium materials, such as lithium carbonate and hexafluorophosphate, have reported significant quarter-on-quarter earnings growth, driven by price increases and ongoing demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [2][3]. Group 2: Price Trends - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has shown a "V-shaped" recovery, rising from 73,000 yuan/ton to approximately 120,000 yuan/ton, with peaks reaching around 134,000 yuan/ton by the end of 2025 [4]. - The increase in lithium carbonate prices has significantly improved the profitability of lithium salt companies, with major firms like Ganfeng Lithium and Yahua Group reporting substantial profit increases [4][5]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Ganfeng Lithium is expected to turn a profit in 2025, with projected net profits ranging from 1.1 billion to 1.65 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 2.074 billion yuan in the previous year [4]. - Yahua Group anticipates a net profit of 600 million to 680 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 133.36% to 164.47% [4]. - Tianqi Lithium and other suppliers are also expected to report significant profit increases due to rising prices of hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate [5]. Group 4: Market Demand and Future Outlook - The demand for energy storage and electric vehicles remains strong, with global energy storage battery shipments expected to reach 640 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 82.9% [6]. - The continuation of domestic vehicle replacement policies and the resumption of electric vehicle purchase subsidies in Germany are expected to further boost demand [6]. - Analysts suggest that as long as the demand for new energy remains strong, the prices of key upstream products like lithium carbonate are likely to continue rising, leading to a new cycle of prosperity in the industry [7].

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Analysis - **Main contract and basis**: On January 27, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 165,680 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 3,100 yuan/ton or about 1.84% from the previous day. The basis strengthened from -11,020 yuan/ton on January 26, 2026, to 12,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 23,840 yuan/ton [1][31]. - **Open interest and trading volume**: The open interest of the main contract decreased to 416,719 lots, a decrease of 21,909 lots or about 5%. The trading volume increased to 575,675 lots, an increase of 232,870 lots or about 68% [1][32]. *** Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - **Supply side**: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable on January 27, 2026, at 19,470 yuan/ton and 8,700 yuan/ton, respectively. However, information indicated that lithium ore prices had increased slightly recently, and overseas mine quotes had risen. The smelter operating rate remained stable at 87.14%, but the reluctance to sell among upstream lithium salt producers had increased, and some manufacturers had hoarded goods, resulting in a weak willingness to sell spot orders. On January 16, 2026, Yahua Group announced the commissioning of its lithium mine project in Zimbabwe, which increased self - sufficiency, but the overall supply increase was limited [2]. - **Demand side**: The prices of downstream cathode materials generally declined. On January 27, 2026, the price of power ternary materials was 188,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of power lithium iron phosphate was 58,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,185 yuan/ton. Although the prices of some battery cells had increased, the demand for new energy vehicles was weak. According to data from the Passenger Car Association on January 21, 2026, the retail sales from January 1 - 18 decreased by 16% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 23%. Downstream material manufacturers mainly purchased on demand, and some began to stock up for February, but overall purchases were cautious. Coupled with the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy, the demand side lacked support [2]. - **Inventory and warehouse receipts**: As of January 23, 2026, the lithium carbonate inventory was 108,896 physical tons, a slight decrease of 783 tons or 0.71% from 109,679 physical tons on January 16, 2026, continuing the de - stocking trend [2]. *** Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern. The weak demand persists, with the decline in new energy vehicle sales and cautious downstream purchases restricting the upside space. Meanwhile, although the supply side has support from reluctance to sell and inventory de - stocking, the stable lithium ore prices and high capacity utilization rate limit the rebound strength. The overall market may experience increased volatility under the weak supply - demand balance but lacks a breakthrough driver [3].

锂电新周期来了？ 具体来看，龙头股盐湖股份（000792.SZ）、雅化集团（002497.SZ）业绩预增，赣锋锂业 （002460.SZ）预计实现扭亏。盐湖股份预告归母净利润82.9亿元至88.9亿元，同比大增77.78%至 90.65%，其业绩增长的核心驱动力均指向两大主要产品氯化钾和碳酸锂的价格上升。 锂盐龙头赣锋锂业预计2025年实现扭亏，归母净利润达11亿元至16.5亿元，上年同期为亏损20.74亿元。 雅化集团业绩预喜，公司预计2025年归母净利润为6亿元至6.80亿元，同比增长133.36%~164.47%。华友 钴业（603799.SH）预计实现归母净利润58.5亿元至64.5亿元，同比增长40.8%至55.24%。 2025年锂电产业链迎来业绩拐点。据第一财经记者不完全统计，28家已披露业绩预告的锂电企业中，11 家预增，6家扭亏，其余为续亏和首亏。锂盐、碳酸锂、六氟磷酸锂等关键锂电材料环节的龙头企业， 普遍在去年第四季度实现业绩环比大增，主要系核心产品价格上涨叠加新能源汽车与储能需求保持增 长。 过去几年，锂电材料行业经历了跌价去库存的周期底部，企业盈利能力大幅回暖，表明锂电周期已步入 复苏 ...

东吴证券研报指出，雅化集团Q4业绩亮眼，略好于预期。公司预告25年归母净利6.0~6.8亿元，同比增 133%~164%，中值6.4亿元；其中Q4归母净利2.7至3.5亿元，同比160至238%，环比34%~75%，中值3.1 亿元。Q4预计公司民爆业务贡献利润1.3-1.5亿元，环比基本持平，全年合计贡献5.5亿，同增10%。公 司布局海外大矿服务业务，目前在非洲、澳洲已获得项目，随着项目推进，将逐步贡献增量，我们预计 未来年复合增长25%+。展望26年，我们预计公司锂盐产能达13万吨，出货量我们预计10万吨+，同比 +67%，权益自有资源规模3.8万吨，若按照碳酸锂价格15万/吨，对应可贡献23亿+利润。同时公司未来 将进一步拓展自有矿山规模。考虑公司碳酸锂涨价弹性，给予26年16x估值，对应目标价38元，维持"买 入"评级。 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·能源金属 雅化集团（002497） 2025 年业绩预告点评：锂价上涨贡献弹性， 民爆业务稳健增长 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,895 | 7,716 | 8,037 | 17,781 | 23,486 | | 同比（%） | (17.72) | (35.14) | 4.17 | 121.24 | 32.08 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 40.21 | 257.11 | 647.07 | 2,756.83 | 3,226.78 | | 同比（%） | (99.11) | 539.36 | 151.67 | 326.05 | 17.05 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.03 | 0.22 | 0.56 | 2.39 | 2.80 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 720.52 | 112.69 | 44.78 | 10.51 | 8.98 ...