《星岛》见习记者 洪雨欣 深圳报道 在生猪行业持续承压的背景下，养殖龙头牧原食品股份有限公司（下称"牧原股份"，002714.SZ）赴港 上市的步伐引发市场关注。 1月29日，牧原股份正式启动港股IPO招股，全球发售2.74亿股H股，最高发行价定为39港元/股（约合 34.71元人民币），预计募资104.6亿港元。 假设行使超额配售权，则牧原股份此次最多募资106.84亿港元。 然而，这一价格折算成人民币后，大致相当于牧原股份20日均价（47.73元/股）的七折，并低于其2021 年A股定向增发的发行价——当时为39.97元/股。 截至1月29日，牧原股份为A股同业中估值第一，总市值达2530.90亿元；H股同业中估值第一的海天味 业（03288.HK）总市值为1867.90亿港元（约合人民币1660亿元）。 值得注意的是，该轮定增正值猪周期由盛转衰的拐点，但牧原股份的资产状况和盈利状况仍表现良好。 2019年末至2022年9月末，公司资产总额从528.87亿元增长至1850.07亿元；营业收入分别为202.21亿 元、562.77亿元、788.90亿元和807.74亿元。 而如今，即便考虑汇率因素（按1港元 ...

农林牧渔行业：猪价短期回暖，不 改去化趋势 2026 年 1 月 30 日 看好/维持 农林牧渔 行业报告 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：猪价旺季回升，12 月均价下行。农业农村部监测数据显示， 2025 年 12 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 23.40 元/公斤、12.26 元/公斤和 22.63 元/公斤，环比变化分别为-3.50%、-2.27%和-1.81%。猪价在 12 月底部 回升，但均价下行。26 年 1 月猪价明显回升，截至 1 月 20 日，全国外三元生 猪均价 12.90 元/公斤。 供应端： 12 月份，疫病点状爆发和行业亏损影响，养殖端整体出栏节奏偏快。 进入 26 年 1 月，规模场按照正常节奏出栏，中小散户节奏放缓，对 1 月上旬 猪价形成支撑。需求端：元旦支撑需求阶段性走高，12 月生猪屠宰开工率环 比上涨 5.32 个百分点至 39.44%。1 月春节备货逐步开启，终端市场有所提振。 但屠宰端冻品出库对开工率和价格上行造成阻力。 产能变化趋势：国家统计局数据显示，10 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3990 万头，环 比下降 1.10%，12 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3961 万头 ...

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods, known as the "King of Pigs," is set to achieve a secondary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, establishing an "A+H" dual capital structure to enhance its financing capabilities amid a challenging industry environment [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Details - Muyuan Foods has initiated its H-share global offering with a base issuance of 274 million shares, where approximately 10% is allocated for public offering in Hong Kong and 90% for international placement [1]. - The maximum price for the H-share issuance is capped at HKD 39 per share, potentially raising a net amount of HKD 10.46 billion if the over-allotment option is not exercised [1]. - The public offering in Hong Kong is scheduled to start on January 29, 2026, with the listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange expected by February 6, 2026 [1]. Group 2: Use of Proceeds - Approximately 60% of the net proceeds will be allocated to exploring overseas opportunities and expanding the business footprint, including enhancing supply chain development and securing stable feed supply through international procurement [4]. - About 30% of the funds will be directed towards research and development to drive technological innovation across the entire industry chain, focusing on breeding, smart farming, and biosecurity [4]. Group 3: Investor Participation - The offering has attracted 15 cornerstone investors, who will collectively subscribe to 137 million H-shares, representing 50% of the global offering [4]. - Notable cornerstone investors include Charoen Pokphand Foods and Wilmar International, which may accelerate Muyuan's expansion in Southeast Asian markets [5]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Muyuan Foods reported a revenue of CNY 137.9 billion in 2024, with a significant reliance on its core business of pig farming, which accounted for 92.5% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 [7]. - The company has maintained its position as the world's largest pig producer since 2021, with a market share increase from 2.6% in 2021 to 5.6% in 2024 [7]. - The average selling price of pigs in the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 1,581.8 per head, down from CNY 1,901.7 in the same period the previous year, indicating pricing pressure [8]. Group 5: Debt Management - Muyuan Foods has been focusing on reducing its debt levels, with total liabilities decreasing from CNY 1,213.68 billion in 2023 to CNY 1,003.16 billion by the end of September 2025 [10]. - The company aims to lower its debt-to-asset ratio below 50% through ongoing debt structure optimization and precise capital expenditure management [10].

对于此次募集资金用途，牧原股份表示募集资金净额60%（或约62.76亿港元）将用于挖掘海外机遇扩大商业版图，其余将用于通过研发投入推动全产业 链技术创新、营运资金及一般企业用途等。 事实上，牧原股份在境外资本运作与海外业务拓展层面早有探索。 1月29日，牧原股份正式启动H股全球发售，预计于2月6日在香港联交所挂牌交易，此举意味着牧原股份的国际化战略步入发展快车道。 根据牧原股份招股书显示，公司拟发售H股总数达2.74亿股，其中香港公开发售占比10%，共2739.52万股；国际发售占比90%，共2.47亿股。同时，牧原 股份授予国际包销商15%的超额配股权，可额外配发最多4109.27万股H股，用以补足市场超额分配需求。本次全球发售H股最高发售价设定为每股39港 元。 据了解，牧原股份H股全球发售由摩根士丹利亚洲、中信证券（香港）及高盛（亚洲）担任联席保荐人。而正大集团、丰益、中化香港、香港豫农国际、 富达基金、RBC、高毅、平安人寿保险、大家人寿、UBS AM等多家知名机构作为基石投资者，合计认购金额约53.42亿港元。 2022年12月，牧原股份宣布，计划发行全球存托凭证（简称"GDR"）并申请在瑞士证券交 ...

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods has taken a significant step towards its Hong Kong listing by publishing its H-share prospectus on January 29, marking a move to enhance its global strategy [1]. Group 1: IPO Details - The company plans to globally offer 273.9514 million H-shares, with 27.3952 million shares available for public offering in Hong Kong and 246.5562 million shares for international offering [2][3]. - The maximum offering price is set at HKD 39.00 per share, with additional fees including a 1.0% brokerage commission and various transaction fees [2]. - The subscription period for the shares is from January 29 to February 3, with trading expected to commence on February 6 [3]. Group 2: Fund Utilization - Approximately 60% of the net proceeds from the IPO will be allocated to expanding overseas markets, 30% for research and development to drive technological innovation across the entire industry chain, and 10% for working capital and general corporate purposes [3]. Group 3: Company Background and Market Position - Founded in 1992 by Qin Yinglin and Qian Ying, Muyuan Foods is headquartered in Nanyang, Henan, and was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2014 [4]. - The company operates a vertically integrated business model encompassing feed production, pig breeding, pig farming, and slaughter processing, maintaining the world's largest pig production capacity and output since 2021 [4]. - Muyuan Foods is expanding into Southeast Asia, having established a strategic partnership with BAF Vietnam Agricultural Joint Stock Company to provide technical services, and plans to invest CNY 3.2 billion in a breeding project in Vietnam [4]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Revenue for Muyuan Foods from 2022 to 2024 is projected at CNY 124.8 billion, CNY 110.9 billion, and CNY 137.9 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 58.23%, -11.19%, and 24.43% respectively [5]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be CNY 13.27 billion, -CNY 4.26 billion, and CNY 17.88 billion for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 92.16%, -132.14%, and 519.42% [5]. - For 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of CNY 14.7 billion to CNY 15.7 billion, a decline of 12.20% to 17.79% year-on-year, primarily due to fluctuations in the pig market [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.31%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.12% as of January 30 [2] - The livestock farming sector, particularly related to genetically modified organisms, agriculture, and corn, showed positive performance with significant gains in related ETFs [2] Group 2: Pig Farming Industry Insights - Recent data indicates a 13.79% increase in pig prices over the last 60 days, reaching 13.12 yuan per kilogram on January 29, supported by rising meat demand ahead of the Spring Festival [2] - Despite a recent price increase, the overall supply-demand situation is weak, with expectations of price declines post-holiday due to supply pressures and reduced output [3] - The average weight of pigs sold this week was 128.89 kg, showing a slight recovery, but the overall supply is expected to decrease in January [3] - The industry is experiencing losses, with prices falling below the cost line, leading to a reduction in production capacity and a stabilization of market conditions at the bottom [3] Group 3: Poultry Industry Insights - The white feather chicken market is experiencing price support due to weak supply elasticity caused by overseas epidemics halting domestic breeding [4] - The average selling price of white feather meat chickens in December was 7.44 yuan per kilogram, with a slight increase from the previous month, while breeding losses were reported at 0.26 yuan per bird [4] - The total stock of white feather breeding chickens reached 2.3377 million sets by the end of December, reflecting an 11.3% increase, indicating a potential for future price stability [4]

Focus Events - President Trump announced he will reveal the nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chair next week, criticizing current Chair Powell for not lowering interest rates [1] Oil Market - WTI crude oil prices surged by 5% to $66.3 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 4.25% to $70.23 per barrel [2][4] Company Updates - Guizhou Moutai's stock price increased by 8.61%, with investor Duan Yongping stating he did not purchase shares on that day but had exchanged some shares of China Shenhua for Moutai earlier [3] - Sichuan Gold expects a net profit of 420 million to 480 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 69.23% to 93.40% due to higher sales volume and rising gold prices [16] - Hanwei Technology forecasts a net profit of 125 million to 175 million yuan for 2025, indicating a growth of 63.01% to 128.22% [17] - Transsion Holdings anticipates a revenue of approximately 65.568 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of about 4.58%, with a net profit drop of 54.11% due to rising supply chain costs [17] - Jiangfeng Electronics plans to acquire control of Kaide Quartz for cash, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [19] - Aote Xun expects a net loss of 63.6 million to 72.1 million yuan for 2025, with potential delisting risks due to negative financial indicators [20] - Mu Xi Co. plans to use up to 200 million yuan of raised funds to provide loans to its wholly-owned subsidiary for a new GPU project [21] Industry Dynamics - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, focusing on various sectors including transportation and online services [9] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to address the "anti-involution" issue in the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the need for coordinated governance and market regulation [12] - China aims to expand its "space+" future industries, focusing on commercial space applications and infrastructure development [11] - New regulations were issued to support wind power projects, encouraging development in less ecologically sensitive areas [14]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) [1] Core Insights - Muyuan Foods is the world's largest pig farming enterprise, with a comprehensive business model covering breeding, farming, feed production, and slaughtering [2] - The company has maintained the highest pig output globally for four consecutive years, with a market share of 5.6% in 2024, surpassing the combined market share of its next three competitors [2] - The Chinese pig farming industry is undergoing consolidation, with the penetration rate of large-scale farming increasing from 43.3% in 2015 to an expected 70.1% in 2024 [3] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023, 2024, and Q1-Q3 of 2025 is projected at 110.861 billion, 137.947 billion, and 111.790 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -11.06%, +24.65%, and +15.71% [4] - Net profit is expected to be -4.263 billion, 17.881 billion, and 14.779 billion CNY for the same periods, with year-on-year changes of -132.14%, +519.42%, and +41.01% [4] - The company's performance is significantly influenced by pig prices, which are currently under pressure due to a surplus in supply and weak demand [4] Market Context - The pig market in China experiences cyclical price fluctuations driven by supply-demand dynamics, policy interventions, and feed cost variations [3] - The report indicates that the current H-share offering price corresponds to a PE ratio of approximately 11.19 for 2024, slightly lower than the A-share valuation of 11.74 [4]

Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious optimism for February, with expectations of a slow bull market continuing, despite a high-level narrow fluctuation in indices [6][3] - The mid-cap blue-chip stocks have shown strong performance in January, particularly in the gold and non-ferrous metals sectors, with signs of stabilization and rebound in the consumer sector, especially in food and beverage [6][3] - The report highlights a significant pessimism regarding pig prices for 2026, driven by underestimations of inventory and capacity reduction, suggesting a potential price recovery due to structural supply shortages [6][3] Market Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks, particularly in the food and beverage sector, which are expected to continue their rebound [6][3] - It suggests that the market's risk appetite and evaluation are shifting, with mid-cap blue-chip stocks valued between 10 billion to 50 billion being relatively favored [6][3] - The report recommends focusing on stocks with improvement logic or those in significant performance downgrades, particularly in the restaurant supply chain, dairy farming, regional liquor, and mid-to-high-end liquor [6][3] Industry Analysis - The report notes that the pig farming industry is experiencing a structural supply shortage, which is expected to limit the downward price potential for pigs, with a price turning point anticipated in Q2 2026 [6][3] - It highlights that the average weight of pigs post-slaughter is at a historical low, indicating a potential for price recovery as inventory levels are replenished [6][3] - The report identifies specific companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs as favorable investment targets within the pig farming sector [6][3]

IPO 申购指南 牧原股份（2714.HK） 建议谨慎申购 2026-01-29 星期四 【招股详情】 | 保荐人 | | | 摩根士丹利、中信证券、高盛 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上市日期 | 2026 年 | 月 | | 日(周五) | | | | 2 | 6 | | 招股价格 | 港元 39.00 | | | | | | | | | | 集资额 | 104.597 | | | | 亿港元（扣除包销费用和全球发售有关的估计费用） | | | | | | 每手股数 | 股 100 | | | | | | | | | | 入场费 | 3,939.34 | 港元 | | | | | | | | | 招股日期 | 年 2026 | 月 | | 日-2026 | 月 日 2 3 | 年 | | 1 | 29 | | 国元证券认购截止日期 | 2026 年 | 月 | 日 | | | | | 2 | 2 | | 招股总数 | 27395.14 | | | | 万股(可予调整及视乎超额配售权 ...