Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a strong performance in the non-ferrous metal sector, with stocks such as Bojian New Materials and Vanadium Titanium Co. hitting the 10% daily limit up, while others like Shengda Resources and Yinhai Magnetic Materials rose over 6% [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, has issued a "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Non-Ferrous Metal Industry," which includes implementing a new round of mineral exploration strategies and enhancing resource surveys for copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and tin [1] - The plan aims for an average annual growth of about 5% in the value added of the non-ferrous metal industry from 2025 to 2026 [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performances include: - Bojian New Materials (code: 605376) with a market cap of 15.6 billion and a year-to-date increase of 106.32% [2] - Vanadium Titanium Co. (code: 000629) with a market cap of 28.6 billion and a year-to-date increase of 6.94% [2] - Shengda Resources (code: 000603) with a market cap of 17.2 billion and a year-to-date increase of 108.85% [2] - Yinhai Magnetic Materials (code: 300127) with a market cap of 11.1 billion and a year-to-date increase of 41.62% [2] - Other notable performers include: - Ganfeng Lithium (code: 002460) with a market cap of 116.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 62.73% [2] - China Aluminum (code: 601600) with a market cap of 134.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 8.68% [2]

Group 1: Medical Devices Industry - The cardiovascular medical device industry has significant growth potential, with the market for cardiac electrophysiology devices in China expected to grow from CNY 65.80 billion in 2021 to CNY 157.26 billion by 2025, and further to CNY 419.73 billion by 2032 [5][6] - The global market for cardiac rhythm management devices increased from USD 9.7 billion in 2016 to USD 10.6 billion in 2021, with a projected growth to USD 12.8 billion by 2030 [5] - The market for coronary artery disease devices in China is also expanding, with the number of patients expected to reach 31.67 million by 2030, and the market for aortic stent grafts projected to grow significantly [6][7] Group 2: AI Cooling Industry - The AI computing upgrade is driving innovation in cooling technologies, with liquid cooling expected to reduce data center energy consumption by 20%-30%, achieving a PUE below 1.2 [8][9] - The liquid cooling market in China is projected to reach USD 1.26 billion in the first half of 2024, with cold plate solutions currently dominating the market due to their maturity and lower infrastructure modification requirements [9][10] - The market for immersion cooling fluids is expected to grow, with silicone oil and fluorinated liquids being key players, although regulatory challenges may arise [10] Group 3: Semiconductor Industry - Aojie Technology (688220.SH) is a leading player in the baseband chip market, with projected revenues of CNY 45.80 billion, CNY 57.35 billion, and CNY 70.72 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [12][13] - The company has a strong presence in both mobile baseband and IoT sectors, with significant growth expected in its ASIC business, which is anticipated to see multiple-fold growth by 2026 [12][14] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - Lifang Pharmaceutical (003020.SZ) is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 18.53 billion, CNY 22.93 billion, and CNY 27.37 billion from 2025 to 2027, with a strong growth trajectory driven by its unique traditional Chinese medicine products [16][17] - The company is set to launch its first generic version of methylphenidate extended-release tablets in April 2025, targeting a large ADHD market in China [17] Group 5: Beverage Industry - IFBH (6603.HK) is positioned to capture a significant share of the coconut water market in China, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 55% from 2019 to 2025 [19][20] - The company has established a strong brand presence and is leveraging its supply chain advantages to maintain a competitive edge in the market [20] Group 6: Nonferrous Metals Industry - Zhongmin Resources (002738.SZ) is projected to achieve net profits of CNY 6.03 billion, CNY 12.72 billion, and CNY 22.64 billion from 2025 to 2027, driven by its high-margin cesium and rubidium salt business [22][23] - The company is strategically expanding its copper business, which is expected to provide significant growth potential as demand for copper increases [23][24] Group 7: Aerospace Industry - The commercial aerospace sector is anticipated to reach a turning point with increased satellite launches and the development of reusable rockets, which are critical for the growth of satellite internet [29][30] - Companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace and Tianbing Technology are making significant advancements in rocket technology, with planned launches that could enhance China's capabilities in commercial space [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - Shenwan Hongyuan Research indicates that Zhongmin Resources' business primarily includes lithium salts, minor metals, and copper, and employs a segment valuation method to analyze the company's value [1] Summary by Sections - **Profit Forecast**: The estimated net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 445 million, 1.063 billion, and 1.733 billion yuan respectively [1] - **Growth Contribution**: Starting from 2026, new projects in minor metals and copper are expected to contribute significantly to growth, with the contributions to net profit from lithium salts, minor metals, and copper in 2026 estimated at approximately 177 million, 725 million, and 161 million yuan respectively [1] - **Valuation Metrics**: The company is assigned price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28x for lithium salts, 41x for minor metals, and 14x for copper for the year 2026, leading to a target market value of 36.8 billion yuan for 2026 [1] - **Market Potential**: The target market value of 36.8 billion yuan represents a 17.36% upside potential compared to the current market value of 31.4 billion yuan, prompting a first-time coverage with an "overweight" rating for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese lithium battery industry is accelerating towards high-quality development, with significant investments and project expansions in various segments, particularly in lithium batteries and solid-state batteries, indicating a strategic shift towards advanced production capabilities and market positioning [4][7][10]. Investment and Project Expansion - From January to August 2025, the Chinese lithium battery industry chain signed and initiated 183 new projects with a total planned investment of 400 billion yuan, showcasing a trend of "accelerated high-end expansion and clearance of low-end capacity" [4][7]. - The expansion projects include 54 for lithium batteries and 23 for solid-state batteries, representing 30% and 13% of the total planned expansion projects, respectively [4]. - Major investments are led by top companies like CATL, BYD, and Enjie, focusing on traditional segments, while emerging sectors like solid-state and sodium batteries attract new capital and startups [7][10]. Regional Distribution - The expansion projects are primarily concentrated in East and Central China, with significant activities in the Yangtze River Delta and Hubei-Hunan regions, leveraging local resources and manufacturing capabilities [10]. - Internationally, projects in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Hungary are gaining traction, driven by favorable geopolitical conditions and local demand for electric vehicle components [10][11]. Specific Investment Highlights - The planned investment in the lithium battery segment exceeds 40% of the total, with solid-state batteries emerging as a new growth area with a planned investment of 35 billion yuan [7][8]. - Notable projects include a 331 billion yuan investment in Guizhou for phosphate iron and lithium production, and a 243 billion yuan investment by Qingshan Group in another Guizhou project [8][10]. - The negative electrode materials sector is also seeing significant investment, with 28.6 billion yuan planned, focusing on technology upgrades and overseas expansion [8]. Emerging Technologies and Trends - Solid-state batteries are becoming the most popular investment track, driven by technological advancements and accelerated mass production [7][8]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards more sophisticated materials and production techniques, with companies like Dongchi New Energy planning a 5.2 billion yuan sodium battery project [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company is transitioning from a geological exploration firm to a comprehensive mining enterprise, focusing on lithium, minor metals, and copper [18]. - The company has significant advantages in the minor metals sector, particularly in cesium and rubidium, which are expected to contribute to stable profits [46]. - The lithium segment is positioned for cost optimization and increased competitiveness, with a focus on resource self-sufficiency [75]. - The copper segment is anticipated to become a key growth driver following the acquisition of high-quality copper mining assets [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 5,364 in 2024, 6,150 in 2025, 7,795 in 2026, and 10,168 in 2027, with growth rates of -10.8%, 14.7%, 26.7%, and 30.4% respectively [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) is forecasted at 757 in 2024, 445 in 2025, 1,063 in 2026, and 1,733 in 2027, with growth rates of -65.7%, -41.3%, 139.1%, and 63.0% respectively [2]. - Earnings per share (in yuan) are expected to be 1.05 in 2024, 0.62 in 2025, 1.47 in 2026, and 2.40 in 2027 [2]. Business Segments Overview Minor Metals - The company has a strong resource advantage in cesium and rubidium, with significant pricing power due to high market concentration [46]. - The new germanium and gallium projects are expected to contribute to performance starting in 2025 [46]. Lithium - The company has been actively acquiring quality lithium mines since 2018, enhancing resource security and reducing costs [75]. - The lithium segment is expected to have a stable bottoming out of prices, with projected sales volumes of 42,000 tons in 2025, 45,000 tons in 2026, and 52,000 tons in 2027 [8]. Copper - The acquisition of the Kitumba copper mine is set to enhance the company's position in the bulk metal sector, with a planned production capacity of 60,000 tons per year starting in 2026 [7][9]. - The copper market is expected to remain tight, with prices projected to stay high due to limited new supply [7]. Valuation and Market Potential - The report estimates the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at 4.45 billion, 10.63 billion, and 17.33 billion yuan respectively [7]. - The target market capitalization for 2026 is projected to be 36.8 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 17.36% from the current market cap of 31.4 billion yuan [7].

Group 1: Rare Metal ETF Performance - The Rare Metal ETF has a turnover rate of 3.51% and a transaction volume of 87.15 million yuan [3] - As of September 25, the ETF has seen an average daily transaction volume of 208 million yuan over the past month, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's scale has increased by 247 million yuan this month, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's shares have grown by 43.5 million shares this month, achieving significant growth and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - Over the past 19 trading days, the ETF has experienced net inflows on 10 days, totaling 423 million yuan [3] - The ETF's net value has increased by 79.68% over the past year [3] - The highest monthly return since inception is 24.02%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 4 months and a maximum increase of 58.56% [3] - The average monthly return during rising months is 8.77%, and the ETF has outperformed the benchmark with an annualized return of 5.45% over the past three months [3] Group 2: Silicon Carbide and Rare Metals Market Trends - Silicon carbide prices have risen by 5.7% to 5,600 yuan per ton, reaching a three-month high, while high-purity gallium prices have increased by 1.1% due to recovering demand in the semiconductor sector [4] - The strategic importance of silicon carbide as a core substrate is increasing with its penetration in new energy vehicles, photovoltaic inverters, and 5G base stations [4] - Although short-term price fluctuations are influenced by production capacity release, the long-term outlook for the silicon carbide industry remains positive due to accelerated domestic substitution and increased downstream application [4] - Prices of tungsten and praseodymium-neodymium oxide are also at high levels, indicating a continued structural tightness in resource supply [4] Group 3: Top Holdings in Rare Metal Index - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metal Theme Index include Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Salt Lake Industry, Huayou Cobalt, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, China Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, Zhongjin Resources, and Xiamen Tungsten, collectively accounting for 57.58% of the index [4]

Group 1 - The rare metal ETF fund has seen a turnover rate of 6.78% with a transaction volume of 11.3956 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past month is 19.6415 million yuan as of September 25 [3] - The net value of the rare metal ETF fund has increased by 78.35% over the past year, with the highest monthly return since inception being 24.02% and the longest consecutive monthly increase lasting 4 months with a total increase of 57.92% [3] - Supply constraints have led to a significant rise in cobalt prices, with the Democratic Republic of Congo extending its cobalt export ban until October 15, resulting in a nearly 40% increase in cobalt prices this year [3] Group 2 - Bohai Securities indicates that the extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo has caused a significant decline in domestic cobalt raw material imports, with electrolytic cobalt prices recovering to 275,000 yuan per ton from earlier lows [4] - The industry is currently in a destocking phase, and the cobalt supply is expected to remain constrained through 2026-2027, despite steady demand growth in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metals Theme Index account for 57.58%, with notable companies including Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Ganfeng Lithium [4] Group 3 - The rare metal ETF fund serves as a good investment tool for investors looking to gain exposure to the rare metals industry [6] - The performance of individual stocks within the rare metals sector varies, with notable increases in stocks like Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium, while Ganfeng Lithium has seen a slight decline [6]

Core Insights - The small metals sector experienced a rise of 1.03% on September 25, with Zhongkuang Resources leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.3, down 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13445.9, up 0.67% [1] Small Metals Sector Performance - Zhongkuang Resources (002738) closed at 43.49, up 4.32%, with a trading volume of 401,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.754 billion [1] - Xianglu Tungsten Industry (002842) closed at 10.60, up 3.72%, with a trading volume of 280,100 shares [1] - Western Materials (002149) closed at 17.64, up 3.40%, with a trading volume of 218,100 shares and a transaction value of 381 million [1] - Xiamen Tungsten Industry (600549) closed at 28.78, up 2.68%, with a trading volume of 1,570,900 shares and a transaction value of 1.628 billion [1] - Northern Rare Earth (600111) closed at 47.28, up 1.59%, with a trading volume of 1,483,800 shares and a transaction value of 7.025 billion [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The small metals sector saw a net inflow of 478 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 823 million [2][3] - Northern Rare Earth (600111) had a net inflow of 27.7 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 360 million from retail investors [3] - Xiamen Tungsten Industry (600549) recorded a net inflow of 126 million from institutional investors, with a significant net outflow of 198 million from retail investors [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a broad increase in small metal concept stocks, indicating positive market sentiment in this sector [1] - Huaxi Nonferrous Metals surged over 6%, reflecting strong investor interest and potential growth in the company [1] - Haotong Technology rose more than 3%, suggesting a favorable outlook for its business performance [1] Group 2 - Guiyan Platinum Industry increased by over 2%, indicating a positive trend in the precious metals segment [1] - Other companies such as China Rare Earth, Zhongkuang Resources, Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals, and Zhongtung High-tech also experienced gains, highlighting a broader rally in the small metal sector [1]

Group 1: Liquidity and Performance of Rare Metal ETFs - The rare metal ETF had an intraday turnover of 4.62%, with a transaction volume of 115 million yuan [1] - Over the past month, the average daily transaction volume of the rare metal ETF reached 218 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - In the last two weeks, the rare metal ETF's scale increased by 53.46 million yuan, achieving significant growth and ranking first among comparable funds [1] - The ETF's shares grew by 13 million shares in the last two weeks, also ranking first among comparable funds [1] - In the last ten trading days, the rare metal ETF attracted a total of 195 million yuan in inflows [1] - As of September 22, 2025, the net value of the rare metal ETF increased by 86.19% over the past year [1] - The highest monthly return since inception was 24.02%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being four months and a maximum increase of 58.56% [1] - The average return during the rising months was 8.77% [1] - The annualized return over the last three months exceeded the benchmark by 5.76% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Policy Impact - The unique resource characteristics of minor metals lead to greater price elasticity, benefiting from high beta during market uptrends [2] - The Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt export policy, effective September 21, extends the cobalt export ban until October 15, 2025, followed by a quota system [2] - The quota for October to December 2025 is set at 18,125 tons, with a total quota of 96,600 tons for 2026-2027, representing a 56% decrease from the 2024 production levels [2] - The Congolese government's firm pricing stance is expected to compel downstream companies to initiate large-scale inventory replenishment, driving cobalt prices upward [2] - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Metal Theme Index accounted for 57.58% of the index, including companies like Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Ganfeng Lithium [2] Group 3: Stock Performance Overview - The stock performance of key companies in the rare metals sector showed declines, with Northern Rare Earth down 4.79% and Ganfeng Lithium down 0.76% [4] - Other notable declines included Luoyang Molybdenum at -2.75% and Tianqi Lithium at -3.01% [4] - Investors can also participate in the rare metal sector through the rare metal ETF linked fund (014111) [4]