Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently, leading to a decrease in raw material costs. The production profit of steel mills has been restored, and stainless - steel mills are expected to increase production, resulting in increased supply pressure. - The demand in the off - peak season is weak, with low market purchasing willingness and general inquiry and transaction performance. The national stainless - steel social inventory shows a narrow increase. - Technically, with an increase in positions and a decline in price, the bearish sentiment is strong, and the price is at the lower edge of the downward channel. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,415 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 35 yuan/ton; the spread between the 12 - 01 contracts is - 80 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,376 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 983 lots; the position of the main contract is 172,728 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 4,992 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 69,289 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,076 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,350 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,850 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. - The basis of the SS main contract is 455 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 85 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 21,700 metal tons, with a decrease of 300 metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, with an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, with an increase of 211,200 tons. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 118,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 900 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, with no month - on - month change. - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, with an increase of 24,800 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 591,200 tons, with an increase of 20,400 tons. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, with an increase of 55.9799 million square meters. - The monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, with an increase of 4,000 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, with a decrease of 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, with an increase of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to deploy policies and measures to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption. The Ministry of Finance will effectively implement a proactive fiscal policy, adhere to expanding domestic demand, and support the construction of a strong domestic market. - China released its October economic data, showing that the growth rates of industry, social consumer goods retail, investment, and real - estate sales were all lower than the previous values to varying degrees. - The schedule for important US data has been determined: the September non - farm payrolls will be released on November 20th, and the PCE, the Fed's preferred indicator, will be released on November 26th. There is a split within the Fed regarding inflation and interest - rate policies [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - A - share three - quarterly reports performed well, providing bottom support for the market. However, multiple economic indicators in October showed weakness, indicating significant downward pressure on the economy and putting pressure on the stock market. After the disclosure of the A - share three - quarterly reports and with no major domestic meetings this month, and after the release of macro - economic data, the market will enter a vacuum period of macro - data, performance, and policies. In the absence of clear trading guidance, the market is expected to move randomly, and stock index futures will remain volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Contract Prices**: IF, IH, IC, and IM main and secondary contracts all declined. For example, the IF main contract (2512) was at 4581.4, down 41.0; the IH main contract (2512) was at 3009.2, down 34.0 [2]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: Most spreads increased, such as the IF - IH monthly contract spread which was 1581.8, up 1.8; the IC - IF monthly contract spread was 2620.0, up 26.0 [2]. - **Futures Seasonal - Monthly Spreads**: Some spreads decreased, like the IF seasonal - monthly spread was - 43.4, down 1.8; some increased, such as the IH seasonal - monthly spread which was - 6.6, up 1.6 [2]. - **Futures Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. For example, the IF top 20 net position was - 23,624.00, down 1014.0 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Spot Index Prices**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was at 4598.05, down 30.1; the Shanghai Composite 50 was at 3012.1, down 26.4; the CSI 500 was at 7235.4, down 0.1; the CSI 1000 was at 7523.1, up 20.3 [2]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. For example, the IF main contract basis was - 16.6, up 11.1 [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment Data - **Trading Volume and Margin Trading**: A - share trading volume was 19,303.21 billion yuan, down 500.61 billion yuan; the margin trading balance was 24,927.04 billion yuan, down 138.30 billion yuan [2]. - **North - bound Trading and Repurchase**: North - bound trading volume was 2098.22 billion yuan, down 155.99 billion yuan; the repurchase balance was - 1199.0 billion yuan, up 10830.0 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The proportion of rising stocks was 47.43%, up 11.44%; the Shibor was 1.508%, up 0.145% [2]. 3.4 Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - **Wind Market Analysis**: The overall A - share score was 4.70, up 1.00; the technical analysis score was 4.70, up 1.20; the capital analysis score was 4.60, up 0.70 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - **Economic Data**: In October, China's industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. From January to October, it increased by 6.1% year - on - year. Social consumer goods retail sales in October were 46291 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. From January to October, it was 412169 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. From January to October, national fixed - asset investment was 408914 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. The real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 9.6% year - on - year. In October, the real estate development climate index was 92.43 [2]. - **Financial Data**: At the end of October, the stock of social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first 10 months was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The M2 balance was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%; the M1 balance was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [2]. 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On November 20 at 9:00, China's 1 - year and 5 - year LPR will be released. On November 20 at 21:30, the US September non - farm payrolls data, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate will be released [3].

Report Summary of Cotton (Yarn) Industry Daily on November 17, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side continues to exert pressure, but the domestic demand shows marginal improvement. The cotton market is expected to maintain a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price: 13,445 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; cotton yarn main - contract closing price: 19,740 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 84,319 lots, up 7,104 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: 102 lots, up 313 lots [2]. - Cotton main - contract open interest: 571,342 lots, up 14,902 lots; cotton yarn main - contract open interest: 22,211 lots, down 1,293 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts: 4,396 lots, down 5 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 28 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 14,801 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded 32 - count yarn): 20,540 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,913 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff): 13,920 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [2]. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded 32 - count yarn arrival price): 21,078 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed 32 - count yarn arrival price): 22,424 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,739 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 861,000 tons, down 9,000 tons [2]. - Cotton import volume: 100,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 130,000 tons, unchanged [2]. - Imported cotton profit: 886 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 1.0217 million tons, down 460,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 24.85 days, down 1.73 days; grey fabric inventory days: 31.12 days, down 2.75 days [2]. - Cloth output: 2.8 billion meters, up 0.1 billion meters; yarn output: 2.074 million tons, up 46,000 tons [2]. - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 124,532,470,000 US dollars, down 1,692,656.63 US dollars; export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products: 119,665,160,000 US dollars, down 426,685.77 US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options on cotton: 15.18%, up 4.51%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options on cotton: 15.17%, up 4.51% [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 5.71%, up 0.14%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 7.24%, down 0.01% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The 2025/26 US cotton November supply - demand outlook shows that compared with September, production, exports, and ending inventory have increased, while consumption and imports remain unchanged. US production forecast is nearly 900,000 bales higher, reaching 14.1 million bales, with the national average yield forecast up nearly 7%. Exports are forecast to increase by 200,000 bales to 12.2 million bales, and ending inventory increases by nearly 20% to 4.3 million bales, with a stock - to - use ratio of 30.9% [2]. 3.8 Market Analysis - Domestic market: On the supply side, new cotton acquisition and processing progress is fast, and acquisition is nearly finished. The cotton acquisition price has risen, providing cost support. However, with the issuance of import quotas and faster shipment of high - grade new Brazilian cotton, the import volume in October is expected to increase month - on - month. The port inventory has reached a four - month high, with more arrivals and limited shipments. On the demand side, China's textile and apparel exports in October showed a year - on - year and month - on - month decline, with clothing exports falling more significantly than textiles. But domestic retail demand shows marginal improvement, and later orders should be monitored [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The HC2601 contract increased in price with reduced positions on Monday. Some steel mills have announced blast furnace maintenance plans recently, and there are expectations of macro - level positive news to boost market confidence. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils continued to decline slightly, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 80.13%. Downstream demand decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. The market may fluctuate and strengthen, and risk control should be noted [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,302 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan; the position volume was 1,263,520 lots, down 23,505 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 52,146 lots, up 7,583 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 150,567 tons, up 6,484 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 205 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Guangzhou, it was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Wuhan, it was 3,340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - The basis of the HC main contract was 38 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 70 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,970 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 151.2592 million tons, up 2.3111 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 360,300 tons, down 1,200 tons. - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2215 million tons, down 44,100 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets was 1.1666 million tons, down 33,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.79%, down 0.36 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.82%, up 1.03 percentage points. - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.1366 million tons, down 45,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 80.13%, down 1.15 percentage points. - The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 775,200 tons, up 900 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.33 million tons, down 200 tons. - The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 72 million tons, down 1.49 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel was 9.279 million tons, down 641,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.3587 million vehicles, up 82,900 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles were 3.3221 million vehicles, up 95,700 vehicles. - The monthly output of air conditioners was 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units. - The monthly output of household washing machines was 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The People's Bank of China announced that it will conduct 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on the 17th, with a term of 6 months (182 days). Considering the operation volume and maturity volume in November, this operation means that the central bank's outright reverse repurchase will be increased, with a cumulative net investment of 500 billion yuan. - From November to December, the automobile consumption promotion activity in Jiangsu will be intensified, and the subsidy standard will be significantly increased. For new cars with an invoice price of 400,000 yuan or more (including tax), the subsidy standard will be increased from 8,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver continued to decline under pressure during the session, but the downward momentum weakened, and the London gold and silver prices formed strong support at the integer level [3]. - The market's risk - aversion sentiment weakened marginally after the US - Switzerland tariff agreement, and profit - taking by long - positions intensified the pressure on the high - level correction of gold prices. FOMC officials' hawkish signals reduced the probability of a December interest - rate cut to below 50%, strengthening the US dollar and pressuring precious metals [3]. - In the short term, if the US stock market continues to decline, liquidity risks may increase the correction pressure on precious metals. The Fed's more hawkish stance than expected and the rise in US Treasury yields pose potential negatives to gold prices. - In the long term, the increasing US debt pressure and weakening investor confidence in the US dollar make gold attractive. Central bank gold purchases may push up the gold price center. The recommended trading ranges are 900 - 950 yuan/gram for the Shanghai gold 2512 contract and 11500 - 12300 yuan/kg for the Shanghai silver 2512 contract [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - **Closing Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 929.46 yuan/gram, down 23.74 yuan; the Shanghai silver main contract was 11933 yuan/kg, down 418 yuan [3]. - **Positions**: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 101723 lots, down 11874 lots; the Shanghai silver main contract was 311515 lots, up 101189 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract was 108348 lots, down 7750 lots; the Shanghai silver was 105453 lots, down 16646 lots [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 90426 kg (unchanged); the silver was 569355 kg, down 7539 kg [3]. 3.2. Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 931.45 yuan/gram, down 27.35 yuan; the silver spot price was 11977 yuan/kg, down 441 yuan [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was 1.99 yuan/gram, down 3.61 yuan; the Shanghai silver main contract was 44 yuan/kg, down 23 yuan [3]. 3.3. Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 1044 tons, down 4.93 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15218.42 tons, up 45.14 tons [3]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net position was 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; the silver was 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts [3]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply and demand of gold were both 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons and 54.83 tons respectively. The annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the global annual demand was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3]. 3.4. Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 27.6%, down 2.74%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 27.22%, up 0.1% [3]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold was 26.76%, up 2%. 3.5. Industry News - The US and Switzerland have "basically" reached a trade agreement. US tariffs on Swiss goods will drop from 39% to 15%, and Switzerland will invest $200 billion in the US [3]. - The US will release the Q3 GDP revised value on November 26, along with October personal income, expenditure, and PCE index at 10:00 on the same day. There are also scheduled releases of September non - farm payroll and real wage data, but the release of October CPI data is uncertain [3]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in December is 44.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 55.6%. By January next year, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 48.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 34.7%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cumulative rate cut is 16.7% [3].

需采购为主，现货升水上涨；海外LME库存亦呈现增长。预计镍价震荡弱势运行。技术面，持仓增量价格 下跌，空头氛围升温，关注11.7关口争夺。观点参考：预计短线沪镍震荡偏弱，关注MA5压力。 免责声明 | | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-11-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 116750 | -330 12-01月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -200 | 0 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 14880 | -75 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 107341 | -4908 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -34387 | -2282 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 252090 | 120 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 40573 | 3386 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 13992 | 108 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 3582 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Supply is under less pressure as near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and coastal oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks and are mostly shut down. However, demand is weakening due to reduced aquaculture demand with temperature drops and the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybeans and soybean meal. The fall in US soybeans has dragged down domestic meal prices, and today rapeseed meal saw a decline with reduced positions. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On the supply side, near - month imports of rapeseed are structurally tightened, oil mills have used up their rapeseed stocks and are mostly shut down, and rapeseed oil will continue to be in a destocking mode, which supports its price. But on the demand side, the ample supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil keep rapeseed oil demand at a basic level. Recently, rapeseed oil futures prices have rebounded from low levels, with increased short - term volatility, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Futures Market** - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures decreased by 43 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal futures increased by 9880 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed futures decreased by 3.1 Canadian dollars/ton, and that of the active contract of domestic rapeseed futures increased by 80 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 45 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal monthly spread (1 - 5) decreased by 9 yuan/ton. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract decreased by 7 yuan/ton, and that of the rapeseed meal main contract decreased by 39 yuan/ton [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil decreased by 3228 hands, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 47901 hands. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil decreased by 4311 hands, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 23476 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 0, and that of rapeseed meal was 5323, unchanged from the previous day [2]. **Spot Market** - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The average price of rapeseed oil decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the import cost price of rapeseed decreased by 26.88 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio was 4.1, an increase of 0.09 [2]. - **Substitute Prices**: The spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased by 60 yuan/ton [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production**: The predicted annual production of rapeseed globally was 90.96 million tons, an increase of 1068 thousand tons [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed decreased by 13.13 tons, the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 2 tons, and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 16 tons, a decrease of 5.57 tons [2]. - **Profits and Rates**: The import rapeseed crushing profit decreased by 28 yuan/ton, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased by 0.5 tons, the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0.5%, unchanged [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased by 0.52 tons, and the coastal rapeseed meal inventory decreased by 0.3 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region decreased by 2.37 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased by 0.6 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region decreased by 0.32 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region increased by 0.1 tons [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 decreased by 0.53 tons, and the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 decreased by 0.19 tons [2]. **Industry News** - On November 14 (Friday), ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to the weakness of Chicago bean futures after the USDA supply - demand report, but the weekly line increased. The January rapeseed futures contract closed down 3.40 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 647.50 Canadian dollars/ton, and the weekly increase was 1.2% [2]. - The USDA lowered the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season from 53.5 bushels in September to 53.0 bushels, and the total production was expected to be 4.253 billion bushels, lower than the September forecast. However, the unexpected reduction in US soybean exports led to selling after the report [2]. - From August 1 to November 2, 2025, Canadian rapeseed exports were 1.4233 million tons, a 54.1% decrease compared to the same period last year. Canada's bio - fuel production incentive plan uses rapeseed oil as the core raw material, and Canada and Pakistan reached an agreement to promote rapeseed exports to Pakistan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc ore imports in China have increased due to the arrival of long - term agreement ores and raw material reserves for winter production. However, domestic zinc ore processing fees have been cut, and sulfuric acid prices have dropped, significantly squeezing smelters' profits, with some incurring losses. Although new production capacities are being released, the growth of refined zinc output is limited. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped sharply, and the export window has opened, with a shift to net exports expected. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect was weak, the real - estate sector was a drag, while policies in the automotive and home - appliance sectors brought some bright spots. The recovery of downstream demand was insufficient, with the market mainly making on - demand purchases at low prices. Domestic inventories decreased slightly, and LME zinc de - stocking slowed down. Technically, with stable positions and price adjustments, there was more divergence between bulls and bears. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate and adjust, with attention on the range of 2.22 - 2.26 [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,465 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread of Shanghai zinc was - 25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote was 3,014.5 dollars/ton, down 26 dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc was 217,728 lots, down 8,952 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 8,214 lots, down 2,748 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts were 76,861 tons, up 5,108 tons. The SHFE inventory was 100,892 tons, up 684 tons; the LME inventory was 38,975 tons, up 1,175 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,400 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 22,170 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract was - 65 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was 175.85 dollars/ton, up 54.36 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 18,320 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 15,950 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. The global zinc ore production by ILZSG was 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons. Domestic refined zinc production was 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports were 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports were 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports were 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons. The social inventory of zinc was 160,800 tons, down 900 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The output of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets were 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The new housing construction area was 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the housing completion area was 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. Automobile production was 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production was 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc was 11.84%, down 0.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc was 11.84%, down 0.25 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 10.03%, up 0.73 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 9.31%, up 0.37 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to deploy policies to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption. The Ministry of Finance will implement a proactive fiscal policy, expand domestic demand, and support the construction of a strong domestic market. China released its October economic data, with the growth rates of industry, social consumer goods retail, investment, and real - estate sales all lower than the previous period. The schedule for important US data was determined: September non - farm payrolls will be released on November 20, and the Fed's preferred PCE indicator will be released on November 26. There is a split within the Fed on interest - rate cuts [3]

跌0.72%。总体来说，供应兑现周期内，价格整体仍然承压，只是规模场正常出栏，散户惜售，需求增加但 幅度有限，供需博弈加剧，预计价格震荡略偏弱运行。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 生猪产业日报 2025-11-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11695 | -80 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 137254 | 6579 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 90 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -40104 | -2974 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 11600 | -300 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 11400 | -300 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 12200 | -300 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | -95 | -220 | | 上游情况 | 生 ...

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-11-17 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 只是终端需求尚无改善信号，或限制需求增长空间与持续性。现货紧平衡状态预计持续，缓慢消耗高库存 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 压力。成本方面，欧佩克增产持续至年底，原油供强于需局面预计维持，但地缘方面美委关系紧张可能加 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 剧，国际油价多空因素交织。受"反内卷"情绪驱动及海外调油需求上升利好，近期盘面有所反弹。不过 免责声明 ，短期供需基本面仍无改善迹象，12月合约基差也处在中性区间。技术上，EB2512关注6630附近压力。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 6496 406451 | 46 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, -11760 1 ...