尿素产业日报 2025-07-30 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 09合约短线建议在1730-1800区间交易。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1742 | -2 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -28 | -2 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 147157 | -5823 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -22228 | 3865 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 2900 | 0 | | | ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 铝类产业日报 2025/7/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,625.00 65.00 | +20.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +10.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 3,326.00 21.00 | +19.00↑ -7.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 261,363.00 | -11344.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 148,574.00 | -9550.00↓ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 14,500.00 | -475.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 48,333.00 | | | | | | | | +3669.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report 2025/7/29 [1] - Data Source: Third - party - Researcher: Liao Hongbin - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F30825507 - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - On Tuesday, Treasury bond spot yields weakened collectively, and Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank continued net injections, and the weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.56%. Domestically, the decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed in June, but weak PPI remained a drag. Industrial growth rose slightly, fixed - asset investment and social retail sales declined slightly, and the unemployment rate remained stable. Socially - financed growth exceeded expectations, credit demand improved marginally, and deposit activation increased. Overseas, the US July S&P Global Composite PMI rebounded unexpectedly, the labor market was stable, and global trade tensions eased. Affected by policy themes, risk appetite increased, and the bond market was under pressure. If relevant policies are further introduced, the bond market may continue to face pressure in the short - term, and interest - rate bonds may be adjusted. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short - term and allocate after stabilization [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Disk - **Closing Prices**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.25%, 0.17%, 0.06%, and 0.78% respectively [2] - **Trading Volumes**: T and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 94 and 5157 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 1398 and 677 respectively [2] 2. Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 spreads decreased by 0.09, 0.02, and 0.01 respectively; T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, and TS09 - TF09 spreads increased by 0.64, 0.09, 0.21, and 0.12 respectively [2] 3. Futures Positions - **Main Contract Positions**: T and TS main contract positions decreased by 625 and 2929 respectively, while TF main contract positions decreased by 32, and TL main contract positions increased by 488 [2] - **Top 20 Long and Short Positions**: T top 20 long positions decreased by 379, and short positions increased by 1659; TF top 20 long positions increased by 1156, and short positions increased by 309; TS top 20 long positions increased by 149, and short positions decreased by 2562; TL top 20 long and short positions increased by 3633 and 3786 respectively [2] 4. CTD (Cheapest to Deliver) - The net prices of various CTD bonds, such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, etc., all decreased [2] 5. Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of active Treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 1.75bp, 2.05bp, 2.50bp, 2.25bp, and 1.75bp respectively [2] 6. Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, Shibor overnight, and 7 - day interest rates all decreased [2] 7. Industry News - The national child - rearing subsidy system implementation plan was announced on July 28. From January 1, 2025, a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year will be provided for children under 3 years old [2] - In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. The profits of new - kinetic - energy industries represented by the equipment industry grew rapidly. From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size were 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year, and the profits of the mining industry decreased by 30.3% year - on - year [2] 8. Key Data to Focus On - July 29, 22:00, US July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - July 30, 20:15, US July ADP Employment (in ten thousand people) [3]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2509） | 4141.4 | +22.4↑ IF次主力合约（2508） | 4152.8 | +23.6↑ | | | IH主力合约（2509） | 2814.0 | +10.8↑ IH次主力合约（2508） | 2812.6 | +9.2↑ | | | IC主力合约（2509） | 6263.0 | +41.2↑ IC次主力合约（2508） | 6317.8 | +42.8↑ | | | IM主力合约（2509） | 6662.0 | +57.0↑ IM次主力合约（2508） | 6731.0 | +55.8↑ | | 期货盘面 | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1340.2 | +15.0↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 2165.0 | +22.2↑ | | | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 413.2 | +12.6↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 3505.2 | +37.2↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 2578 ...

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-07-29 度有望增加。需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，房地产依旧表现低迷，下游深加工订单下滑，采购以刚需为 免责声明 主，汽车玻璃厂备货量增加难以抵消地产相关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需 求也面临库存压力。整体回调概率加 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 大，纯碱玻璃基差维持正常范围，后续市场交易更多是政策预期，今日玻璃延续下跌，多头资金获利了结 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1318 | 2 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1188 | -35 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 130 | 37 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 843601 | -108312 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | ...

业对原材料的采购更加谨慎。据Mysteel农产品数据监测，截至7月24日，主流地区纺企开机负荷在67.6% 数据来源第三方(wind、同花顺、棉花信息网、棉花协会网)，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ ，环比下降2.73%。新作方面，2025年中国棉花总体种植面积增长，不过新疆部分地区有高温天气，棉花 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-07-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13925 | -150 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19995 | -240 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -27006 | 6225 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -264 | 293 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 413662 | -55334 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 7641 | -1770 | | ...

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9492 | 86 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2660 | 0 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 50 | 1 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 281 | 14 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 196655 | -4683 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 453220 | -15106 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 19614 | 3865 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | 19712 | -5128 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 3487 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 0 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 696 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost of nickel resource supply has increased due to the restrictions on the issuance of the PNBP policy by the Indonesian government. However, the production capacity of nickel iron in Indonesia has been accelerating, and the production has rebounded significantly. Recently, the price of nickel iron has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs [2]. - Steel mills are facing increasing pressure of cost - price inversion and are in a loss state across the board. They are forced to increase production cuts. In addition, domestic anti - involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of the oversupply situation, and the production of stainless steel is expected to decline further [2]. - Entering the traditional consumption off - season, with increased uncertainty in the macro - market and still existing pressure on export demand, downstream buyers are hesitant and have a poor acceptance of high - priced goods. The destocking of domestic inventories is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the destocking performance brought about by subsequent production cuts [2]. - Technically, the trading volume and open interest are decreasing, and both long and short positions are cautious. Attention should be paid to the M10 support level. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,920 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 80 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is 0 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 33,195 lots, with a daily increase of 1,484 lots. The open interest of the main contract is 103,270 lots, with a daily decrease of 9,143 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 103,296 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 150 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,600 metal tons, with a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, with a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0414 million tons, with an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,450 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, with no change [2]. - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, with a decrease of 40,700 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,700 tons, with a decrease of 15,200 tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, with an increase of 71.8071 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, with an increase of 1,000 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, with a decrease of 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, with a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 28, local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden [2]. - The US Treasury Department announced on Monday that it expects to borrow nearly $1.01 trillion in net terms in the third quarter, more than $45 billion higher than the estimate announced in April. Excluding the impact of a lower cash balance at the beginning of the quarter, it is $6 billion higher than the April expectation [2]. - US President Trump said that the United States has reached a tariff agreement with the European Union at a 15% tax rate. He also said that the EU will increase its investment in the United States by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy US energy products worth $750 billion [2].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 因部分货源仍处于出口集港中，国内尿素企业库存延续下降但降幅收窄，短期尿素集港尚在持续，另外部 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 分企业检修，将会一定程度降低库存水平，但内需走弱将影响整体去库幅度。UR2509合约短线建议在1730 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 -1800区间交易。 免责声明 | | | 尿素产业日报 2025-07-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The polysilicon market continued to rebound today, mainly due to the continued price increase by leading silicon wafer manufacturers. However, there was little action from downstream photovoltaic modules, resulting in poor transmission in the industrial chain. With potential supply increases, uncertain demand growth, and considering policy and macro - economic factors, it is recommended to temporarily observe or consider laying out put options [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 50,805 yuan/ton, up 1,400 yuan; the main position volume was 140,638 lots, up 4,343 lots. The price difference between August and September polysilicon was - 75 yuan, down 50 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 41,455 yuan/ton, up 965 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon was 46,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 2,905 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense, and re - feed polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. - **Upstream**: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,350 yuan/ton, up 435 yuan; the spot price was 9,950 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. - **Industry**: The monthly output of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, up 320 tons. The spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.01 US dollars/kg, up 0.98 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2]. - **Downstream**: The monthly output of solar cells was 6.7386 million kilowatts, down 318,300 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 units, down 14,424,120 units; the monthly import volume was 11,095,900 units, down 1,002,590 units; the monthly average import price was 0.31 US dollars/unit, down 0.01 US dollars. The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 26.63, up 4.34 [2]. 3.2 Industry News The market price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise. With the increase in polysilicon prices and positive industry policy signals, the market expected silicon wafer prices to rise. Downstream battery enterprises began to accept price - increased orders, prompting silicon wafer manufacturers to raise prices. Leading enterprises raised their quotes, with 183N rising to 1.2 yuan/piece, 210RN to 1.35 yuan/piece, and 210N to 1.55 yuan/piece [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Some domestic polysilicon production bases or production lines are gradually resuming production, but the production capacity will be released in August, having limited impact on July's supply. Although there is no significant change in recent production data, a potential supply increase trend is emerging [2]. - **Demand**: The demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry is a key factor. The overall operating rate of the silicon wafer industry decreased slightly, and the new order transaction activity of silicon materials increased, indicating that the wait - and - see sentiment of silicon wafer enterprises is being digested. However, photovoltaic module manufacturers are pressing down on prices when purchasing polysilicon due to the price war, and the demand - side support is insufficient. Next week, if the new quotes of silicon wafer enterprises can be implemented, it will stimulate the demand for polysilicon; otherwise, the growth of polysilicon demand will be limited [2].