Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report Core View - Macroscopically, Trump's tax letter will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on 14 countries such as Japan and South Korea starting August 1st, and the EU may be close to an agreement. Goldman Sachs has advanced the expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates by three months, possibly in September, with a terminal interest rate of 3% - 3.25%. Fundamentally, there is significant uncertainty about the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State, and Thailand has banned the transit of tin mines from Myanmar, restricting tin ore import supply. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historically low levels. On the smelting side, the Yunnan production area faces a combination of raw material shortages and cost pressures, while the waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment ended, the operating rates of some producers decreased, and the electronics industry entered the off - season with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Recently, tin prices have corrected, the spot premium has been maintained at 400 yuan/ton, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm at low prices has increased, leading to a slight decrease in domestic inventories. Overseas inventories continue to decline, LME cancelled warrants have increased, and the premium has risen. Technically, positions have decreased, and both long and short sides are cautious. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60, and the price has returned to the previous trading range. It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a reference range of 262,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 263,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,730 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month tin was 33,770 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 35 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai tin was - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 28,262 lots, a decrease of 2,457 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 398 lots, an increase of 362 lots. The total inventory of LME tin was 2,110 tons, a decrease of 55 tons. The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 7,198 tons, an increase of 243 tons. The cancelled warrants of LME tin were 640 tons, a decrease of 25 tons. The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 6,868 tons, an increase of 61 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin was 264,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,100 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market was 267,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 710 yuan. The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 3,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,230 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 22 US dollars/ton, an increase of 64 US dollars [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 12,100 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 255,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 259,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, an increase of 143.24 tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 173,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,180 yuan. The cumulative output of tinplate (strip) was 1.6014 million tons, an increase of 144,500 tons. The export volume of tinplate was 140,700 tons, a decrease of 33,900 tons [3] 6. Industry News - Trump issued tariff letters to 14 countries, imposing a 25% tariff on imported goods from Japan and South Korea starting August 1st, 25% - 40% tariffs on countries such as Malaysia, South Africa, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Thailand, and an additional 10% tariff on any country that aligns with the anti - US policies of the BRICS countries. He also signed an executive order to extend the suspension period of reciprocal tariffs until August 1st. White House officials said that specific country tariffs would not be叠加 with industry tariffs. China has newly allocated 10 billion yuan in central budgetary investment to carry out a work - for - relief action to expand employment and increase income for key groups [3]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14275 | 30 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 73068 | -350 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 447 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -11032 | 449 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 15000 | 0 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 14600 | 0 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 16500 | -100 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 725 | -30 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 41731 | -1012 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | 4 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | -0.1 | 0 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 2800 | 0 | | | 玉米现货价 | 2431.37 | -1.18 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料 ，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠 ，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证 ，据此投资，责 任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议 ，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况 。本报告版权仅为我公司所有 ，未经书面许 可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院 ，且不得对本报告 进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,650.00 | +4.00↑ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,350.00 | -14.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 587,794.00 | +484.00↑ ...

铝类产业日报 2025/7/8 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,525.00 | +115.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 3,110.00 | +68.00↑ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 55.00 | 0.00 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 176.00 | +9.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 254,726. ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22050 | -40 08-09月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 90 | 40 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2683 | -52.5 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 253618 | -7783 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 9300 | -5731 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 7949 | -122 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 45364 | 1731 LME库存(日,吨) | 110600 | -1725 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22040 | -230 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 21730 | -320 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -10 | -190 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -22.05 | -0.41 | | | 昆明50%锌精矿到厂价(日,元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing fluctuations, with domestic futures showing a rebound and international prices remaining strong, indicating a complex interplay of supply and demand factors affecting future pricing trends [1][2][3] Group 1: Domestic Market Analysis - As of July 8, domestic palm oil futures opened at 8476 CNY/ton and showed a rebound with a current increase of 2.06%, reaching 8620 CNY/ton [1] - The market is characterized by mixed performance in the oilseed sector, with palm oil futures demonstrating stronger performance compared to other oil varieties [2] Group 2: International Market Dynamics - The Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) palm oil futures opened at 4067 MYR/ton and are currently at 4120.6 MYR/ton, reflecting a 1.44% increase, with intraday highs of 4126 MYR/ton [1] - The expected increase in Malaysian palm oil exports and a seasonal decline in production are anticipated to stabilize inventory levels, supporting prices [2][3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Short-term forecasts suggest that palm oil will outperform soybean and canola oils due to favorable growing conditions for soybeans and a lack of speculative drivers in the industry [2] - The expected reduction in Malaysian palm oil production in June, coupled with good export demand, is likely to slow inventory growth, providing support for prices [3] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Long-term trends indicate that biodiesel policies in Brazil and the U.S. may reduce soybean oil exports, benefiting the price differential between soybean and palm oil and supporting palm oil exports [3] - The overall sentiment in the palm oil market remains cautious, with a focus on fundamental factors and potential policy impacts as key risk elements [2]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals shows a majority decline, with rebar futures experiencing a slight pullback, currently at 3059 yuan/ton, down 0.26% [1] - As of July 7, 16 out of 89 surveyed blast furnaces in Tangshan are under maintenance, affecting daily iron output by approximately 39,500 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 91.36%, down 0.58% from the previous week [1] - The current market sentiment is influenced by environmental production restrictions in Tangshan, leading to adjustments in steel companies' operations [1] Group 2 - Rebar inventory is on the rise, and the demand for steel is weakening, with the market showing limited acceptance for price increases during the off-season [2] - The recent increase in rebar production and a decline in electric furnace operation rates have contributed to a slight decrease in total inventory levels [1][2] - The market outlook suggests that rebar futures will likely remain in a low-level consolidation phase in the short term [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The fundamentals continue the weak recovery trend. After the cross - quarter period, the capital pressure subsides, and the seasonal loosening window opens. The overall environment is bullish for the bond market. However, due to the unclear policy disturbances in the second half of the year, the downward space for yields is limited, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL主力合约收盘价分别为109.105、106.225、102.502、121.150，其中TF、TS、TL主力合约分别下跌0.02%、0.01%、0.04%，T主力合约持平；T、TF、TL主力成交量分别减少218、865、1354，TS主力成交量增加257 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads like TL2512 - 2509 increased by 0.02, while others such as T2512 - 2509 decreased by 0.02 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T主力持仓量为216,298手，减少0.01%；TF主力持仓量为157,986手，增加81手；TS主力持仓量为115,517手，减少1,682手；TL主力持仓量为122,562手，减少16手。 The net short positions of T, TS, and TL decreased, while that of TF increased [2]. b. CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds like 220010.IB increased by 0.0337, while others such as 240020.IB decreased by 0.0414 [2]. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 1 - 7Y active bonds decreased by 0.10 - 0.15bp, while the 10Y yield increased by 0.15bp [2]. c. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate increased by 2.25bp to 1.3225%, the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 16.08bp to 1.4908%, and the 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate decreased by 2.00bp to 1.5000%. Shibor overnight decreased by 0.10bp to 1.3120%, Shibor 7 - day increased by 3.50bp to 1.4580%, and Shibor 14 - day decreased by 2.90bp to 1.4940% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. d. Market News - **Domestic News**: The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Ordinance" will come into effect in August. The Minister of Finance of China attended the 2025 BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting and expressed China's willingness to deepen BRICS financial cooperation [2]. - **Overseas News**: US President Trump said that the US government will start sending letters to trading partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, which may range from 10% - 70%, and are likely to take effect on August 1 [2]. e. Key Data to Focus On - On July 07 at 17:00, the eurozone May retail sales month - on - month rate will be released. On July 08 at 20:30, US President Trump will start sending tariff letters to other countries [3].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 7, 2025 - Report Title: Cotton (Yarn) Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The cotton market is in a state of destocking, but the off - season consumption slows down the destocking speed. The overall trend is slightly bullish with oscillations. Weather and macro factors should be continuously monitored. The textile industry shows off - season consumption characteristics, with poor new orders, a slow decline in the overall operating rate, and cautious raw material procurement by enterprises [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Price**: The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton futures contract is 13,760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn futures contract is 19,955 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - **Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures are - 23,095 lots, an increase of 4,152 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures are - 93 lots, an increase of 222 lots [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main cotton futures contract is 543,865 lots, a decrease of 2,264 lots; the open interest of the main cotton yarn futures contract is 23,566 lots, an increase of 694 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of cotton warehouse receipts is 10,039 sheets, a decrease of 28 sheets; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts is 2 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Cotton Price Index**: The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,201 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,736 yuan/ton, unchanged; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,447 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Yarn Price Index**: The China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s) is 20,420 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s) is 21,915 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32s) is 23,703 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Planting and Production**: The national cotton sown area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons [2]. - **Price Spread and Inventory**: The cotton - yarn price spread is 5,219 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 850 thousand tons, an increase of 24 thousand tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Import Volume**: The monthly import volume of cotton is 40 thousand tons, a decrease of 20 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 100 thousand tons, a decrease of 20 thousand tons [2]. - **Profit and Inventory**: The daily profit of imported cotton is 753 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the monthly commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 345.87 thousand tons, a decrease of 69.39 thousand tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Inventory Days**: The yarn inventory days are 21.12 days, an increase of 0.14 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 32.54 days, an increase of 1.37 days [2]. - **Output**: The monthly output of cloth is 2.67 billion meters, a decrease of 0.05 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 195.1 thousand tons, a decrease of 3.6 thousand tons [2]. - **Export Volume**: The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,357,773.7 thousand US dollars, an increase of 197,117.9 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,263,177.3 thousand US dollars, an increase of 5,210.9 thousand US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 8.85%, a decrease of 0.92%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 8.85%, a decrease of 0.92% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.95%, a decrease of 0.46%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 10.87%, a decrease of 1.73% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Domestic Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory in China is 2.7476 million tons, a decrease of 132.3 thousand tons (a decrease of 4.59%) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang is 1.9128 million tons, a decrease of 117.1 thousand tons (a decrease of 5.77%) from the previous week; the commercial cotton inventory in the inland area is 435.5 thousand tons, a decrease of 2.5 thousand tons (a decrease of 0.57%) from the previous week [2]. - **US Export**: For the week ending June 26, the net increase in US cotton export sales in the current market year is 23,700 bales, a decrease of 13% from the previous week and a decrease of 66% from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in US cotton export sales in the next market year is 106,600 bales. The US cotton export shipments are 255,800 bales, an increase of 39% from the previous week and an increase of 9% from the average of the previous four weeks [2].

| | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/7/7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 最新 | | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 1888.500 -3.8↓ EC次主力收盘价 | | | 1350 | -12.40↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2508-EC2510价差 538.50 +30.50↑ EC2508-EC2512价差 | | | 364.60 | +27.70↑ | | | EC合约基差 234.74 -38.60↓ | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -1857↓ | 34521 | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 2258.04 134.80↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | | 1,557.77 | 61.42↑ | | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） 1763.49 -98.02↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） | | | 1,227.97 | 0.00↑ | | 现货价格 | CCFI（综合指数）（周） 1342.99 ...