登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 特别提示： 1、赎回价格：101.118元/张（含当期应计利息，当期年利率为2.00%，且当期利息含税），扣税后的赎 回价格以中国证券登记结算有限责任公司深圳分公司（以下简称"中登公司"）核准的价格为准。 10、最后一个交易日可转债简称：Z达转债 11、根据安排，截至2026年1月16日收市后仍未转股的"瑞达转债"将被强制赎回，特提醒"瑞达转债"持 有人注意在限期内转股。本次赎回完成后，"瑞达转债"将在深圳证券交易所（以下简称"深交所"）摘 牌。"瑞达转债"持有人持有的"瑞达转债"存在被质押或被冻结的，建议在停止交易日前解除质押或冻 结，以免出现因无法转股而被强制赎回的情形。 12、本次"瑞达转债"赎回价格可能与其停止交易和停止转股前的市场价格存在较大差异，投资者如未及 时转股，可能面临损失，敬请广大投资者详细了解《瑞达期货股份有限公司公开发行可转换公司债券募 集说明书》（以下简称"《募集说明书》"）中可转换公司债券（以下简称"可转债"）有条件赎回条款的 相关约定 ...

| 证券代码：002961 | 证券简称：瑞达期货 | 公告编号：2025-092 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128116 | 债券简称：瑞达转债 | | 证券代码：002961 证券简称：瑞达期货 公告编号：2025-092 瑞达期货股份有限公司 关于提前赎回"瑞达转债"的第五次提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、赎回价格：101.118 元/张（含当期应计利息，当期年利率为 2.00%，且 当期利息含税），扣税后的赎回价格以中国证券登记结算有限责任公司深圳分公 司（以下简称"中登公司"）核准的价格为准。 11、根据安排，截至 2026 年 1 月 16 日收市后仍未转股的"瑞达转债"将被 强制赎回，特提醒"瑞达转债"持有人注意在限期内转股。本次赎回完成后，"瑞 达转债"将在深圳证券交易所（以下简称"深交所"）摘牌。"瑞达转债"持有 人持有的"瑞达转债"存在被质押或被冻结的，建议在停止交易日前解除质押或 冻结，以免出现因无法转股而被强制赎回的情形。 12、本次"瑞达转债"赎回价格可能与其 ...

Market Overview - As of December 29, 2025, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu is 138,800 tons, a decrease of 500 tons compared to the previous period [1] - The spot market for styrene has continued to rise, with prices ranging from 6,680 to 6,900 CNY/ton; as of December 31, the price in Jiangsu reached 6,880 CNY/ton, an increase of 4.96% from the average price of 6,555 CNY/ton the previous Thursday [1] Production and Supply Dynamics - Last week, the restart of a 350,000-ton facility by Baolai and the shutdown of a 450,000-ton facility by Tianjin Bohua due to faults have led to an increase in styrene production and capacity utilization rates compared to the previous period [1] - The recent unexpected maintenance of facilities is expected to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand for domestic styrene in the short term, with visible inventory likely to continue decreasing [4] Institutional Insights - According to Zijin Tianfeng Futures, the styrene market has risen due to unexpected maintenance and export news, with low valuation and marginal positive factors gaining influence; however, the surplus of upstream pure benzene remains a major negative factor [3] - RD Futures notes that the geopolitical situation regarding the U.S. and Venezuela, as well as Russia and Ukraine, has not worsened recently, indicating limited upward pressure on oil prices; the supply-demand situation for pure benzene remains loose, providing limited support [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the pure benzene futures fluctuated in the range of 5450 - 5630. As of December 31, BZ2603 closed at 5463 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from last week's closing price. The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5345 yuan/ton, and the main basis was -118 yuan/ton [6]. - On the supply side, last week, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.05% to 74.89% month-on-month, and the operating rate of hydrobenzene increased by 2.94% to 59.83% month-on-month. The domestic pure benzene output increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rates of downstream pure benzene generally increased last week. The weighted operating rate of downstream pure benzene increased by 2.59% to 71.07% month-on-month. In terms of inventory, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports increased by 9.89% to 300,000 tons this week, maintaining a high-level upward trend. In terms of profit, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 38 yuan/ton to 201 yuan/ton last week, maintaining a recovery trend [6]. - In January, two sets of equipment of Zhejiang Petrochemical will be under maintenance, and equipment such as Funeng Jiahua, Yunnan Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical will be restarted one after another. A new device of Guangdong BASF is planned to be put into production, and the domestic pure benzene output is expected to increase slightly. The load of large - scale downstream styrene equipment is stable, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable; a small amount of equipment for caprolactam will resume, and the overall operating rate is expected to change little; some maintenance equipment for phenol, aniline, and adipic acid is planned to be restarted. In terms of cost, there are no signs of deterioration in the short - term geopolitical situation, and the supply pressure of international crude oil in the real - world remains. International oil prices are expected to be more likely to fall than to rise. The supply and demand of pure benzene will both increase, and the cost - side support is relatively limited. The price will show a short - term oscillatory trend. Technically, BZ2603 should pay attention to the support around 5360 and the pressure around 5570 [6]. Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Price**: This week, the pure benzene futures fluctuated in the range of 5450 - 5630. As of December 31, BZ2603 closed at 5463 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from last week's closing price. The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5345 yuan/ton, and the main basis was -118 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side: last week, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.05% to 74.89% month - on - month, and the operating rate of hydrobenzene increased by 2.94% to 59.83% month - on - month, with domestic pure benzene output rising slightly. Demand - side: the operating rates of downstream pure benzene generally increased last week. The weighted operating rate of downstream pure benzene increased by 2.59% to 71.07% month - on - month. Inventory: the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports increased by 9.89% to 300,000 tons this week, maintaining a high - level upward trend. Profit: the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 38 yuan/ton to 201 yuan/ton last week, maintaining a recovery trend [6]. - **Outlook**: In January, domestic pure benzene output is expected to increase slightly. The operating rate of downstream products is expected to remain stable or change little. International oil prices are expected to be more likely to fall than to rise. The supply and demand of pure benzene will both increase, and the cost - side support is relatively limited. The price will show a short - term oscillatory trend. Technically, BZ2603 should pay attention to the support around 5360 and the pressure around 5570 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - This week, the pure benzene futures fluctuated in the range, and the spot price in East China rose slightly, reaching 5345 yuan/ton on December 31 [8]. - On December 30, the market price of petroleum benzene in North China was 5170 yuan/ton, and in South China was 5300 yuan/ton [15]. - On December 30, the market price of petroleum benzene in Northeast China was 5210 yuan/ton, and the market price of hydrobenzene in Shanxi was 5040 yuan/ton [20]. - On December 29, the FOB price of pure benzene in South Korea was 664 US dollars/ton, and the CFR price of pure benzene in China was 672 US dollars/ton [25]. 3. Industry Situation - Last week, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased month - on - month, and the operating rate of hydrobenzene increased month - on - month [30]. - In November, 459,600 tons of pure benzene were imported. This week, the import profit fluctuated slightly, and the import window was semi - open [36]. - This week, the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports increased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was relatively high [42]. - This week, the production cost of petroleum benzene decreased, and the profit recovered. Last week, the production cost of hydrobenzene decreased month - on - month, and the profit recovered [45][50]. - The operating rate of styrene increased month - on - month, and the non - integrated profit increased. The operating rate of caprolactam increased, and the profit decreased. The operating rate of the phenol industry was 78.15%. The operating rate of the aniline industry was 62.98%. The operating rate of the adipic acid industry was 63.6% [55][60][63]. 4. Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of the pure benzene main contract was reported at 11.57%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 19.2% [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of styrene futures fluctuated in the range of 6,700 - 6,870. As of December 31, 2025, the main EB2602 contract of styrene closed at 6,791 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from last week's closing price. In the short - term, the supply - demand of styrene will gradually shift from tight balance to wide balance in January, with limited cost - side support, and the upward price trend is expected to weaken. The short - term operating range of EB2602 is expected to be around 6,680 - 6,950 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Price**: The main contract of styrene futures fluctuated in the range of 6,700 - 6,870, and the EB2602 contract closed at 6,791 yuan/ton, up 0.06% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, Baolai's 350,000 - ton plant restarted, Tianjin Bohua's 450,000 - ton plant shut down due to a fault. Styrene output increased by 2.25% to 354,600 tons, and capacity utilization rose by 1.57% to 70.70%. On the demand side, the downstream operating rates mostly increased, with EPS up 0.75% to 52.56%, PS up 4.1% to 58.6%, ABS down 0.7% to 69.4%, UPR up 2% to 38%, and styrene - butadiene rubber up 0.15% to 79.38%. In terms of inventory, the styrene factory inventory increased by 0.47% to 171,800 tons, the East China port inventory decreased by 0.36% to 138,800 tons, and the South China port inventory increased by 70% to 18,700 tons. In terms of cost - profit, the non - integrated cost of styrene rose to 6,766.50 yuan/ton, and the non - integrated profit slightly recovered to - 177 yuan/ton. The integrated profit is around 635.04 yuan/ton, which is profitable [7]. - **Outlook**: There are no major styrene plant shutdown or restart news in the near future. Domestic output and capacity utilization are expected to change little. EPS will maintain low operation due to the off - season and high inventory. The load of PS and ABS plants has no significant adjustment. Currently, downstream profits are generally low, suppressing the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to start production. In terms of cost, there are no signs of deterioration in the short - term geopolitical situation, and there is still supply pressure in the real - end of international crude oil. International oil prices are expected to be more likely to fall than to rise [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Futures Price and Warehouse Receipts**: The main EB futures contract fluctuated strongly, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased month - on - month [8]. - **Net Position and Monthly Spread**: The position of the 02 contract decreased month - on - month, and the 02 - 03 spread fluctuated slightly [13]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price fluctuated and rose, the main basis strengthened, and the spot was slightly at a premium [17]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream Situation - **Ethylene and Pure Benzene Prices**: The RMB price of ethylene remained stable, and the price of pure benzene in East China fluctuated slightly [23]. - **Ethylene Supply**: In November, ethylene output decreased month - on - month, and ethylene imports remained basically stable month - on - month [27]. 3.3.2. Supply - **Capacity and Output**: In December, a new 200,000 - ton plant in Dongming was put into operation. In November, styrene production was 1.4562 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.50% and a year - on - year increase of 13.83% [32]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the styrene operating rate increased month - on - month [36]. 3.3.3. Demand - **Downstream Price and Operating Rate**: The price decline of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS slowed down, and the downstream operating rates mostly increased. EPS, PS, and UPR operating rates increased, while ABS operating rate decreased, and styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate increased. EPS continued to accumulate inventory, while PS and ABS had some inventory reduction. Downstream profits were weak [39][43][48][53][56]. 3.3.4. Import and Export - In November, styrene imports were 18,800 tons, and exports were 23,700 tons [61]. 3.3.5. Inventory - Port inventory was 157,500 tons, and factory inventory was 171,800 tons. The East China port inventory was 138,800 tons, and the South China port inventory was 18,700 tons [66][70]. 3.3.6. Production Cost and Profit - Non - integrated cost increased slightly, and profit slightly recovered. The integrated process was highly profitable. This week, the import profit continued to be in a loss, and the import window was closed [74][80][83]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of the main styrene contract was reported at 18.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 22.05% [88].

Core Viewpoint - The diversified financial sector experienced a decline of 0.43% on December 31, with Ruida Futures leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.09% and the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.58% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The diversified financial sector's stocks showed mixed performance, with notable gainers including Lakala, which rose by 7.07% to close at 28.48, and ST Rendo, which increased by 2.95% to 8.02 [1] - Conversely, Ruida Futures saw a significant decline of 5.58%, closing at 27.07, marking it as the worst performer in the sector [2] Group 2: Trading Volume and Value - Lakala recorded a trading volume of 1.4885 million shares and a transaction value of 4.168 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The overall net inflow of funds in the diversified financial sector was 64.3125 million yuan, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 14.8 million yuan [2][3] Group 3: Fund Flow Analysis - Major funds showed a net inflow of 42.3 million yuan into Lakala, while retail investors had a net outflow of 20 million yuan [3] - ST Panda experienced a significant net outflow from major funds, amounting to 1.6663 million yuan, indicating weak institutional support [3]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 一、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 行情回顾 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅（%） | 周涨跌 | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2602 | -0.32 | -5.80 | 1801.30 | | | EC2604 | 1.09 | 12.60 | 1166.00 | | | EC2606 | 4.22 | 55.40 | 1367.90 | | | EC2608 | 1.08 | 16.00 | 1500.00 | | | EC2610 | 0.85 | 8.90 | 1060.00 | | | EC2612 | -0.24 | -3.10 | 1297.00 | | 现货 | 指数名称 | | | 收盘价 | | | SCFIS | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the LLDPE主力 futures fluctuated in the range of 6430 - 6510. As of the close on December 31, 2025, the L2605 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from last week's closing price. In January, new domestic PE production capacity will continue to be released, and low - cost overseas resources will keep flowing in. Domestic enterprises may increase temporarily shut - down devices to relieve supply pressure. With the off - season of agricultural film demand and limited follow - up of packaging film demand, the LLDPE price still faces pressure in the future. In the short term, L2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of around 6220 - 6600 [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - by - Week Highlights - **Price**: The L2605 contract closed at 6472 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from last week [6]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: Last week, a new 500,000 - ton full - density plant of Guangdong BASF was put into operation, and some plants had short - term shutdowns. PE production decreased by 1.09% to 672,200 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 1.22% to 82.64% [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, with the agricultural film operating rate down 1.3% and the packaging film operating rate down 0.7% [6]. - **Inventory**: This week, the production enterprise inventory decreased by 20.48% to 346,700 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.77% to 475,100 tons [6]. - **Cost - profit**: Last week, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 1.11% to 7014 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 379.71 yuan/ton to - 667 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 1.94% to 6448 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 165.57 yuan/ton to - 206.71 yuan/ton [6]. - **Outlook**: In January, new domestic PE production capacity will be released, and low - cost overseas resources will flow in. Enterprises may increase shutdowns. Agricultural film demand is in the off - season, and packaging film demand is limited. International oil prices are expected to be weak. After the digestion of previous macro - positive factors, LLDPE prices face pressure, and L2605 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 6220 - 6600 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: This week, L2605 fluctuated in a range, and the trading volume of the main contract dropped significantly [7]. - **Open Interest and Warehouse Receipts**: The open interest of the 05 contract decreased, and the registered warehouse receipts increased slightly [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spread fluctuated strongly, the 1 - 5 monthly spread fluctuated weakly, the 5 - 9 monthly spread fluctuated slightly, and the L - PP spread fluctuated slightly [18][24]. Spot Market - **Price**: The domestic LLDPE price was in the range of 6300 - 6530, and the CFR China quotation was 773 US dollars/ton [29]. - **Basis**: The main contract basis decreased, and the spot was slightly at a discount [33]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Ethylene Price**: This week, the RMB price of ethylene remained basically stable [37]. - **Ethylene Production and Import**: In November, ethylene production decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and ethylene import remained basically stable month - on - month but increased year - on - year [40]. Supply - **Production**: In November, the polyethylene production was 2.8909 million tons, an increase month - on - month [44]. - **Capacity Utilization**: Last week, the PE capacity utilization rate decreased month - on - month [50]. Cost - profit - **Production Cost**: Last week, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased, and the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased [55]. - **Profit**: Last week, the profit of oil - based LLDPE and coal - based LLDPE both decreased. This week, the LLDPE import profit increased, but the import window remained closed [61][66]. Inventory - This week, the PE inventory decreased month - on - month, and the inventory pressure was not large [71]. Demand - **Downstream Price**: The prices of PE downstream products decreased [75]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Last week, the average downstream operating rate decreased by 0.6%. The operating rates of agricultural film, packaging film, and pipes decreased. From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of plastic products increased by 0.00% year - on - year, and the cumulative export amount decreased by 1.20% year - on - year [78][82][87]. 4. Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 16.00%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 14.88% [91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A-share major indices generally declined this week, with only the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising. The four stock index futures all fell, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market trading was relatively dull as it was the last trading week of 2025, and the market's reaction to economic data was not obvious due to the approaching New Year's Day holiday. However, the three major domestic PMI indices in December returned to the expansion range, indicating signs of economic recovery [6]. - In November, the external demand of the fundamentals improved slightly, but the endogenous economic momentum still needs to be boosted. The National Fiscal Conference stated that fiscal policy will continue to exert force, and the scale of fiscal expenditure may further increase next year, leading to an increase in the supply pressure of interest rate bonds. Additionally, the current main allocation force for long-term bonds is facing challenges in its ability to absorb long-duration assets, intensifying the adjustment pressure in the long-end market. Under the fragile sentiment in the bond market, it is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - Recently, the weakening of the US dollar index has supported commodities. The National Fiscal Work Conference held at the end of the week regarding next year's fiscal work, especially the arrangements for trade-ins, also supported commodity trends from the demand side. The overall macro atmosphere in the market is positive, and the commodity index is expected to maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend [6]. - The Fed's stance on interest rate cuts is highly divided. Most officials support further rate cuts if inflation gradually declines. The Fed may restart balance sheet expansion, boosting market liquidity expectations. The US dollar may maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term. The Bank of Japan tends to be hawkish, and the euro is expected to strengthen due to the widening interest rate differential, while the yen continues to fluctuate under the influence of carry trades and fiscal concerns [10]. - In December, the official manufacturing PMI reached 50.1, indicating that the manufacturing industry has expanded again. The non-manufacturing PMI also returned to the expansion range. The improvement in the construction industry's prosperity, driven by factors such as relatively high temperatures in some southern provinces and enterprises seizing the construction progress before the holidays, is expected to continue [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations - **Stock Market**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 0.59%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock Index Futures fell by 0.78%. A-share major indices generally declined, with only the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising. The four stock index futures all fell, and small and medium-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip stocks. The market trading was dull, but the economic fundamentals showed signs of recovery. The recommendation is to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond Market**: The 10-year Treasury bond yield increased by 0.09%, and the main 10-year Treasury bond futures fell by 0.39%. The economic endogenous momentum still needs to be boosted, and the supply pressure of interest rate bonds is increasing. The long-end market faces adjustment pressure, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate. The recommendation is to conduct range trading [6]. - **Commodity Market**: The Wind Commodity Index fell by 6.87%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index fell by 1.77%. The weakening of the US dollar and fiscal policies support commodity trends. The recommendation is to mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach [6]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The euro against the US dollar fell by 0.21%, and the euro against the US dollar 2603 contract fell by 0.25%. The US dollar may maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term, the euro is expected to strengthen, and the yen continues to fluctuate. The recommendation is to cautiously wait and see [6]. 3.2 Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: In 2026, the "national subsidy" policy for equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-ins was launched, with the first batch of 6.25 billion yuan in funds allocated. The VAT rate for selling housing purchased for less than two years was lowered from 5% to 3%. The new generation of digital RMB measurement framework, management system, operating mechanism, and ecological system will be launched on January 1, 2026, and digital RMB will start to accrue interest. The 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan will be implemented, with 935 commodities subject to lower import provisional tax rates [14]. - **International News**: The Fed's December meeting minutes showed that most officials support further rate cuts if inflation declines. The US President met with the Ukrainian President, but no major announcements were made. The United Nations Transferable Goods Documents Convention was passed, filling a legal gap in land trade. The Bank of Japan's December policy meeting minutes were hawkish, suggesting future rate hikes [16]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: The official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, and the RatingDog manufacturing PMI was also 50.1, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing industry [17]. - **US**: The month-on-month rate of the existing home sales contract signing index in November was 3.3%, higher than expected. The month-on-month rate of the FHFA housing price index in October was 0.4%, and the annual rate of the S&P/CS 20 - city non - seasonally adjusted housing price index was 1.3% [17]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - A series of economic data will be released next week, including the US December ISM manufacturing PMI, France and Germany's December CPI month - on - month preliminary values, Germany's December seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the eurozone's December CPI annual rate preliminary value, the US December ADP employment number, etc. [76]

「2025.12.31」 瑞达期货研究院 菜籽类市场周报 沿海油厂维持停机 支撑菜油粕基差 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 菜油： 3 Ø 行情回顾：本周菜油期货小幅收涨，05合约收盘价9087元/吨，较前一周+41元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：加拿大农业及农业食品部（AAFC）在17日报告中，将加拿大2025/26年度油菜籽期末 库存预估上调45万吨，至295万吨，高于上年度的159.7万吨，加菜籽供需格局明显好转，继续牵 制其市场价格。其它方面，高频数据显示，前25日马棕产量下滑且出口数据改善，且近期马来西 亚预期将有更大范围的降雨，强化马棕减产预期，支撑马棕市场价格。国内方面，现阶段油厂继 续处于停机状态，菜油也维持去库模式，对其价格形成支撑。并且受大豆通关政策可能收紧的消 息影响，提振国内油脂市场。不过，随着澳大利亚菜籽陆续到港后期进 ...