1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. Due to the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies on consumption, domestic inventories will increase slightly while overseas inventories will decline again. Although lead prices are expected to continue rising in the short term, overall demand is gradually weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,175 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is -20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 89,789 lots, up 1,267 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is -347 lots, down 310 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 50,608 tons, up 2,895 tons; the SHFE inventory is 53,303 tons, up 1,374 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,044 dollars/ton, up 6.5 dollars; the LME lead inventory is 258,075 tons, down 1,900 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract is -175 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is -23.04 dollars/ton, down 83.34 dollars; the price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,320 yuan, up 24 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,960 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 34.15%, up 0.71%; the number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, down 0.8; the monthly output of secondary lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 79.05%, up 2.26%; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.63 tons, up 0.05 tons; the processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is -50 dollars/kiloton, down 10 dollars/kiloton; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16.4 kilotons, up 48.8 kilotons; the global lead mine output is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 560 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; the average market price of waste batteries is 10,167.86 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450 units, down 425 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,550 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton; the Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,743.88 points, up 9.25 points; the monthly automobile output is 264.2 tons, up 3.8 tons; the monthly new energy vehicle output is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump announced that tariffs will start on August 1st without any extension, with a 50% tariff on imported copper and a possible up - to - 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, and will soon announce tariffs on semiconductors; the US Secretary of Commerce expects to issue 15 - 20 more tariff letters in the next two days, copper tariffs will be implemented in late July or August 1st, and the research on pharmaceutical and semiconductor tariffs will be completed by the end of the month; the US Treasury Secretary said that as of now, 100 billion dollars in tariffs have been collected, and it is expected to reach 300 billion dollars by the end of the year; the US Department of Defense announced to provide more defensive weapons to Ukraine [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - Supply side remains loose with expected production increases from large and small enterprises, especially in the Southwest due to lower electricity prices and government subsidies in Xinjiang's Yili region [2] - Demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) for industrial silicon is slowing down, with organic silicon expected to have higher costs and lower production next week, polysilicon in a reduced - load operation state with decreased demand, and aluminum alloy in a passive de - stocking phase [2] - It is recommended to temporarily observe in the short term and maintain a high - selling strategy for the medium - to - long term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8140 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the main contract position is 399029 lots, up 11907 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 93605 lots, down 8706 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50792 lots, down 285 lots; the price spread between August and September industrial silicon is 5 yuan, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 610 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrode (400mm) is 12250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output is 305200 tons, up 5500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory is 55.2 tons, up 1 ton; the monthly industrial silicon import volume is 2211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume is 52919.65 tons, down 12197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 4.49 tons, up 0.07 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.22 dollars/kg, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24179.3 tons, up 7624.27 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 68.24%, up 1.07%; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 164.5 tons, up 11.7 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - There are frequent rumors in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, which need further verification; Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting from August 1 [2] Key Points of Attention - No news today [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Industry Daily Report 2025-07-09 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply remains ample while demand contracts, and prices will continue to face pressure. It is recommended to go short on the soda ash main contract when it rises, and consider buying put options for protection recently [2]. - For glass, in the short term, it is advisable to go long on dips, while in the long - term, the thinking of going short on rallies should be maintained. The rebound height and strength are expected to be limited [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1194 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1035 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference is 159 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest is 1,615,142 lots, down 78,753 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1,526,305 lots, down 46,116 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is -391,471 lots, down 1,826 lots; glass top 20 net position is -386,664 lots, up 5,285 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 3,736 tons, down 297 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 799 tons, down 3 tons [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread is -43 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; glass September - January contract spread is -97 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash basis is -26 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; glass basis is 41 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,168 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash is 1,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1,155 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,076 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1,070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 81.32%, down 0.89 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.68%, up 0.68 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.78 million tons/year, up 0.1 million tons; glass in - production production lines are 222, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.8481 million tons, up 38,600 tons; glass enterprise inventory is 69.085 million weight boxes, down 131,000 weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 183.8514 million square meters, with an increase; cumulative real - estate completion area is 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - President Xi Jinping pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that China should aim to build an important energy and raw materials base at a high level and develop wind power, photovoltaic power generation, hydrogen energy and other energies to build a new energy system [2]. - US media reported that the US Treasury Secretary said that she plans to hold talks with China in the coming weeks to promote consultations on issues such as Sino - US trade [2]. - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will pay an official visit to China from July 12 to 18 at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang [2]. - The General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Normalized Promotion Mechanism for Key Matters of 'Efficiently Completing One Thing'" [2]. - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to Trump's announcement of additional tariffs on 14 countries, stating that tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and protectionism harms the interests of all parties [2].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | 2025/7/9 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 2012.500 | | 33.5↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1390 | | +2.30↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2508-EC2510价差 622.50 +11.00↑ EC2508-EC2512价差 458.80 | | | | | +27.90↑ | | EC合约基差 | 245.54 -6.30↓ | | | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 31348 -3709↓ | | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 2258.04 134.80↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,557. ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14265 | -10 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 71740 | -1328 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 447 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -15744 | -4712 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 15000 | 0 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 14600 | 0 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 16500 | 0 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 735 | 10 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 41731 | -1012 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | 4 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | -0.1 | 0 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 2800 | 0 | | | 玉米现货价 | 2427.45 | -3.92 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The cotton market shows an overall trend of slightly stronger fluctuations in a range. In the international market, the favorable weather has increased the good - quality rate of U.S. cotton, and factors such as a stronger dollar and a weaker grain market have pushed down U.S. cotton prices. Macroeconomic factors like U.S. tariff policies pose risks. In the domestic market, it's the off - season for textile consumption, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature risks in some Xinjiang areas support price increases, but the slow de - stocking process drags down the price rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengmian main contract closing price: 13,830 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 19,985 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 20,573 lots, up 3,092 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 14 lots, up 58 lots - Cotton main contract positions: 546,763 lots, up 3,515 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions: 22,435 lots, down 557 lots - Cotton warehouse receipts: 9,932 sheets, down 39 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 51 sheets, up 49 sheets - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,184 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,420 yuan/ton, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,632 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty tariff): 14,377 yuan/ton; Imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S) arrival price: 22,044 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; Imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32S) arrival price: 23,837 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Not mentioned separately other than data in the futures section 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,236 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; industrial inventory of cotton nationwide: 850,000 tons, up 24,000 tons - Cotton import volume (monthly): 40,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume (monthly): 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons - Imported cotton profit: 816 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan; commercial inventory of cotton nationwide: 3.4587 million tons, down 693,900 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; grey fabric inventory days: 35.46 days, up 2.57 days - Monthly cloth production: 2.67 billion meters, down 50 million meters; monthly yarn production: 1.951 million tons, down 36,000 tons - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value: 1.3577737 billion US dollars, up 197.1179 million US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value: 1.2631773 billion US dollars, up 5.2109 million US dollars - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility: 10.06%, up 1%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility: 10.06%, up 1%; cotton 20 - day historical volatility: 5.11%, unchanged; cotton 60 - day historical volatility: 9.22%, down 0.86% [2] 3.6 Industry News - Nationwide commercial cotton inventory is decreasing. As of July 4, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.7476 million tons, down 132,300 tons (a decrease of 4.59%) from the previous week. In Xinjiang, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.9128 million tons, down 117,100 tons (a decrease of 5.77%); in inland areas, it was 435,500 tons, down 2,500 tons (a decrease of 0.57%) - According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) weekly crop growth report, as of the week ending July 6, 2025, the boll - setting rate of U.S. cotton was 14% (9% the previous week, 18% the same period last year, and a five - year average of 15%); the budding rate was 48% (40% the previous week, 51% the same period last year, and a five - year average of 49%); the good - quality rate was 52% (51% the previous week, 45% the same period last year). Favorable weather has increased the good - quality rate, while a stronger dollar and a weaker grain market have pushed down U.S. cotton prices [2] 3.7 Suggestions - Pay attention to weather and macro - economic factors as the cotton market shows an overall trend of slightly stronger fluctuations in a range, with the de - stocking process being slow and the textile industry in a consumption off - season [2]

Group 1: Overall Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the arrival of the monsoon season has led to a favorable supply outlook in major Asian sugar - producing countries. Coupled with the year - on - year increase in Brazil's exports, the expectation of loose supply has suppressed the raw sugar price. Brazil's sugar exports in June were 3.359 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.24%, but the cumulative sugar exports from the 2025/26 crushing season to June were 7.1682 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.09%. Domestically, the price trends at home and abroad are diverging, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and import pressure will be released, suppressing sugar prices. On the demand side, during the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has inventory needs, and the seasonal consumption of cold drinks has recovered, providing some support for prices. In general, recent raw sugar fluctuations indirectly affect the domestic white sugar trend, but domestic demand has rebounded, performing stronger than the overseas market. In the later stage, both supply and demand will be strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar was 5,779 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 287,247 lots, down 7,728 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 22,987, down 105; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 34,710 lots, up 4,107 lots; the total effective warehouse receipt forecast was 106, unchanged [2]. 2. Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,457 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of Thai sugar was 4,498 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5,662 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar was 5,715 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming was 6,365 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; in Nanning, it was 6,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Liuzhou, it was 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi was 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume was 8.1138 million tons, up 869,200 tons; the national industrial sugar inventory was 3.0483 million tons, down 814,300 tons; the national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume was 350,000 tons, up 220,000 tons; Brazil's monthly sugar export volume was 3.359 million tons, up 1.1024 million tons [2]. 5. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production was 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production was 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2]. 6. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 8.24%, down 0.05 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options was 8.31%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility was 7.31%, down 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 7.79%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. 7. Industry News - An S&P Global survey showed that sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of June was expected to decrease by 9.8% to 2.95 million tons. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the supply outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries was good, and Brazil's export volume increased year - on - year, leading to an expectation of loose supply that suppressed raw sugar prices [2].

Group 1 - Glass futures main contract showed a strong performance, reaching a peak of 1037.00 yuan, with a current price of 1033.00 yuan, reflecting a 0.88% increase [1] - Short-term strategy suggested by Ruida Futures is to buy on dips, while maintaining a long-term strategy of selling on highs [2] - The macroeconomic environment indicates that the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development are working to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks to support the real estate market [2] Group 2 - Supply side analysis shows that Shandong Jinjing Technology Co., Ltd. has resumed production with a capacity of 600 tons per day, leading to increased supply and heightened inventory pressure [3] - The real estate sector continues to show a downward trend, with no substantial improvement in the completion phase, contributing to ongoing industry challenges [3] - The market is expected to experience weak fluctuations, with attention needed on the implementation of industry production restriction policies [3]

鸡蛋产业日报 2025-07-08 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,元/500千 | 3445 | -4 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | -33059 | -2566 | | 期货市场 克) | 鸡蛋期货月间价差(9-1):(日,元/500千克) | -38 | 19 期货持仓量(活跃合约):鸡蛋(日,手) | 173546 | -8043 | | | 注册仓单量:鸡蛋(日,手) | 81 | -72 | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The current fundamentals continue the weak recovery trend. After the cross - quarter, the easing of capital pressure kicks off the seasonal easing window, and the overall environment is favorable for the bond market. However, with the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut expectations not dispelled, the downward space for yields is limited. The bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.08%, 0.08%, 0.03%, and 0.22% respectively, while trading volumes increased by 845, 490, 434, and 2498 respectively [2]. 3.2 Futures Spreads - Different contract spreads show various changes, such as the TL2512 - 2509 spread decreased by 0.02, and the T2512 - 2509 spread increased by 0.00 [2]. 3.3 Futures Positions - The positions of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts and the long - short positions of the top 20 show different changes, with the net short positions of most contracts decreasing [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - The clean prices of multiple CTD bonds decreased, such as the 220010.IB (6y) decreased by 0.1041 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1 - 7y active treasury bonds increased by 0.15 - 0.90bp, while the 10y yield decreased by 0.10bp [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight interest rate decreased by 7.49bp, and the silver - pledged 7 - day interest rate increased by 2.00bp [2]. 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - The 1y and 5y LPR interest rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 690 billion, the maturity scale was 1310 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.9 Industry News - The central bank is actively researching and promoting other measures for the opening - up of the bond market; the Chinese Ministry of Finance is willing to deepen BRICS financial cooperation; the US will impose tariffs on 14 countries and extend the tariff negotiation suspension period to August 1st [2]. 3.10 Key Data to Focus On - On July 9th at 22:00, the US May wholesale sales month - on - month rate; on July 10th at 02:00, the Fed will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting, and at 20:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5th [3].