Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp correction in gold and silver prices this week has weakened the overall sentiment in the precious metals market. The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have turned from strong to weak, with two consecutive daily limit - down moves. This correction is a phased cooling of the over - heated previous market. In the short term, the platinum and palladium markets may enter a high - level consolidation phase. However, the accumulated squeeze - out pressure is difficult to resolve quickly, and the tight spot market may support price rebounds. [7] - In the long - term, platinum may see price support from the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expansion of long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, and its market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus. But the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support the price, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective choice again. [7] - For price ranges, the resistance level for London platinum is $2300 per ounce, and the support level is $1800 per ounce. For London palladium, the resistance level is $1700 per ounce, and the support level is $1400 per ounce. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The sharp correction in gold and silver prices has weakened the sentiment in the precious metals market. The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have turned weak, and this correction is a cooling of the over - heated market. In the short term, the market may consolidate, but the tight spot market may lead to price rebounds. [7] - Platinum has long - term price support factors, while palladium's demand is expected to weaken, but interest - rate cut expectations may support its price. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The sentiment in the precious metals market has weakened, and platinum and palladium prices have significantly corrected from their highs this week. As of December 31, 2025, the main palladium contract 2606 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was at 425.20 yuan per gram, down 17.54% week - on - week, and the main platinum contract 2606 was at 527.25 yuan per gram, down 25.24% week - on - week. [8][12] - As of December 16, 2025, the net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium showed a large divergence. The net long position of NYMEX platinum was 28,564 contracts, up 12.82% month - on - month, and that of NYMEX palladium was - 2340 contracts, down 36.05% month - on - month. [13][17] - The basis of the main NYMEX platinum and palladium contracts has weakened this week. [18] - As of December 24, 2025, NYMEX platinum inventory was 645,466.92 ounces, up 3.32% month - on - month, and NYMEX palladium inventory was 195,833.87 ounces, up 4.81% month - on - month. [26] - The price ratio of NYMEX platinum to gold has rebounded recently. [27] - The rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices has increased. [31] - The positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum inventory and the US dollar index has weakened marginally. [35] 3.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of November 2025, both the import and export volumes of platinum decreased. [39] - The demand for platinum in automotive exhaust catalysts has weakened marginally. [45] - The total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a moderate downward trend. [50] - The global supply of platinum and palladium has declined. [55] 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - As of Wednesday, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield have risen slightly. [58]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 添加客服 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周普遍下跌，仅上证指数微幅上涨。四期指集体下跌，中小盘股 强于大盘蓝筹股。本周，为2025年最后一个交易周，市场交投相对平淡。12月27日-28日召 开的全国财政工作会议，在宏观层面对市场起到托底；12月31日公布的国内三大PMI指数均 回到扩张区间，经济基本面有回暖迹象，但由于元旦假期将至，部分投资者选择空仓过节， 市场对经济数据的反应并不明显。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周明显回升。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周三涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2603 | -0.83 | -0.61 | 4599. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply of live pigs is tightening, which supports the price to fluctuate slightly stronger, but the supportive effects of secondary fattening and demand are weakening, and the risk of price decline is increasing [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Performance**: The live pig price rose and then adjusted. The main contract 2603 increased by 1.29% on a weekly basis [7][10]. - **Market Outlook**: At the beginning of the month, there may be supply reduction operations, and the supply of fat pigs is tight, reducing short - term supply pressure. However, the entry of secondary fattening is becoming more cautious. The current demand is in the peak season, but after the New Year's Day stocking ends, the demand drops from the small peak, and the terminal consumption's acceptance of price increases is limited, so the increase in slaughter volume is limited [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: The futures rebounded this week, with the main contract 2603 rising 1.29% weekly [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 31, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures decreased by 119 hands to 51,598 hands, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 1,013, an increase of 150 from the previous week [16]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2603 and lh2605 contracts was - 370, and the spread between lh2603 and lh2607 contracts was - 1,010 [22]. - **Spot Market** - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national live pig market price this week was 12.28 yuan/kg, up 0.65 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 23.72 yuan/kg, up 0.34 yuan/kg from last week [36]. - **Pork and Sow Prices**: In the week of December 25, the national pork market price was 22.48 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows last week was 32.46 yuan/kg, remaining flat from the previous week [40]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of December 24, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.24, up 0.01 from the previous week [44]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Sow Inventory**: In October 2025, the official inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%. According to Mysteel data, in November, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased by 0.37% month - on - month and increased by 0.07% year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.78% month - on - month and increased by 0.78% year - on - year [49]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. According to Mysteel data, in November, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.32% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.07% month - on - month and increased by 6.94% year - on - year [53]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In November, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 11.3649 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 5.59%. The slaughter volume of small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 29.75%. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 123.55 kg, a decrease of 0.12 kg from last week [58]. - **Industry Profit** - **Live Pig and Poultry Farming Profits**: As of December 26, the loss of purchasing piglets for farming was 162.8 yuan/head, narrowing by 26.7 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 130.11 yuan/head, narrowing by 0.76 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was - 0.47 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 0.01 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/head [63]. - **Domestic Import** - **Pork Imports**: In November, China's pork imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%. From January to November, the total pork imports were 920,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.12% [68]. - **Substitutes** - **Prices**: As of the week of December 26, the price of white - striped chickens remained flat at 14.1 yuan/kg compared with last week. As of the week of December 25, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.61 yuan/kg, widening by 0.13 yuan/kg from last week [73]. - **Feed** - **Raw Material Prices**: As of December 31, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,172.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.57 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the corn price was 2,351.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.94 yuan/ton from the previous week [78]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of December 31, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 892.17, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, remaining flat from last week [81]. - **Feed Output**: In November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons. The sales of piglet feed increased by 0.42% month - on - month and 53.28% year - on - year [85]. - **CPI**: As of November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year [89]. - **Downstream** - **Slaughter and Cold Storage**: In the 52nd week, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate was 40.24%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from last week and 1.16 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - sales rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 87.42%, a decrease of 0.44% from last week, and the cold - storage capacity utilization rate was 18.20%, an increase of 0.01% from last week [92]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of November 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 39.57 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 3.21% and a 24.04% increase compared with the previous period. In November 2025, the national catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [97]. - **Live Pig - Related Stocks**: The report mentions the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,250 - 12,000 in the short - term [7] - The domestic butadiene rubber supply remains at a high level, with the price center slightly rising. The market transactions are concentrated in low - price purchases by arbitrageurs. Terminal purchases are weak, and production enterprise inventory is expected to remain high while trade enterprise inventory is expected to decline slightly [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - week Summary Market Review - The domestic butadiene rubber supply remains at a high level. Except for the shutdown of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical plants, other butadiene rubber plants are operating at a high load. The Shandong market spot price ranges from 10,600 to 11,300 yuan/ton. Sinopec's ex - factory price for BR9000 is 11,100 yuan/ton, and PetroChina's is 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton [8] Market Outlook - The domestic butadiene plants have few shutdowns, and the supply remains high. The price center has slightly increased, but the terminal purchases are still weak. The inventory of production enterprises is expected to remain high, and the inventory of trade enterprises is expected to decline slightly. The tire enterprises have flexible production arrangements, with some controlling production. The semi - steel tire enterprise operating rate has increased slightly, while the all - steel tire enterprise operating rate has decreased [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract has oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.99% [12] - As of December 31, the 2 - 3 spread of butadiene rubber is - 40 [18] - As of December 31, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts are 4,560 tons, unchanged from last week [21] Spot Market - As of December 30, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in the Shandong market is 11,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton from last week [25] - As of December 30, the butadiene rubber basis is - 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton from last week [25] 3.3 Industry Situation Upstream - As of December 30, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 538.63 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.82 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [28] - As of December 26, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 70.61%, an increase of 0.6% from last week, and the port inventory is 43,300 tons, an increase of 7,300 tons from last week [31] Industry - In December 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production is 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from last month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [34] - As of December 25, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber is 76.76%, an increase of 0.5% from last week [34] - As of December 25, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit is 334 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from last week [37] - As of December 26, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory is 34,540 tons, an increase of 530 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory is 28,850 tons, an increase of 1,250 tons from last week; the trader inventory is 5,690 tons, a decrease of 720 tons from last week [41] Downstream - As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [44] - In November 2025, China's tire export volume is 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, the cumulative tire export volume is 7,732,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51% [48] 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Not provided in the report

Report Information - Report Title: Caustic Soda Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: December 31, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [3] - Assistant Researcher: Xu Tianze [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of caustic soda fluctuated between 2220 - 2290, and the spot price declined slightly. The SH2603 contract closed at 2242 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from last week. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 1.3% to 86.0%. The alumina开工率 increased by 0.14% to 85.14%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 decreased by 2.59% to 87.03%, and the printing and dyeing industry开工率 decreased by 0.77% to 61.29%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 4.83% to 44.22 tons. The profit of Shandong chlor-alkali plants decreased to 182 yuan/ton [8]. - In January, the planned overhaul capacity of chlor-alkali is small, and the previously shut-down plants are gradually restarting. The domestic chlor-alkali plants are expected to maintain a high operating state. In the short term, the operating load of alumina enterprises will basically remain stable, and non-aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change. The overall supply and demand of liquid caustic soda spot remains relatively loose, and the market price is under pressure. In the first half of 2026, there are many alumina plants planned to be put into production, which provides some support for the long-term price. However, in the long run, the low profit of the alumina industry needs to be repaired through large-scale production cuts. In the short term, SH2603 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2160 - 2300 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Price**: The main contract of caustic soda fluctuated between 2220 - 2290 this week, and the spot price declined slightly. As of December 31, 2025, the SH2603 contract closed at 2242 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from last week's close. The converted price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to 2197 yuan/ton, and the main basis was -45 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, some plants in East and North China restarted last week, driving the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda to increase by 1.3% to 86.0%. On the demand side, the alumina开工率 increased by 0.14% to 85.14%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 decreased by 2.59% to 87.03%, and the printing and dyeing industry开工率 decreased by 0.77% to 61.29%. In terms of inventory, affected by the end-of-month inventory clearance in North China and the rigid demand from downstream, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 4.83% to 44.22 tons last week. In terms of profit, due to the weakening of liquid chlorine prices, the profit of Shandong chlor-alkali plants decreased to 182 yuan/ton [8]. - **Outlook**: In January, the planned overhaul capacity of chlor-alkali is small, and the previously shut-down plants are gradually restarting. The domestic chlor-alkali plants are expected to maintain a high operating state. In the short term, the operating load of alumina enterprises will basically remain stable, and non-aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change. The overall supply and demand of liquid caustic soda spot remains relatively loose, and the market price is under pressure. In the first half of 2026, there are many alumina plants planned to be put into production, which provides some support for the long-term price. However, in the long run, the low profit of the alumina industry needs to be repaired through large-scale production cuts. In the short term, SH2603 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2160 - 2300 [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: This week, SH2603 fluctuated and rose, and the position of the 03 contract decreased [9]. - **Spot Market**: The benchmark price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 703, with a converted price of 2197. The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Henan was 704 yuan, with a converted price of 2200. The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Inner Mongolia was 656 yuan, with a converted price of 2050. The ex-factory price of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong was 3100 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine was 150 yuan/ton. The spot was at a discount to the main futures, and the number of registered warrants remained stable this week [14][23][28][33]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: The prices of raw salt in Northwest and Shandong were basically stable. The price of 5500K thermal coal in Qinhuangdao dropped to 670 yuan/ton [39][44]. - **Supply**: In November, the caustic soda output was 356.95 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.12%. Last week, the operating rate rose to 86% [47]. - **Demand**: In November, the alumina output was 800.83 tons, and the capacity utilization rate last week was 85.14%. Last week, the viscose staple fiber开工率 was 87.03%. The alumina price was weak, and the viscose staple fiber price remained stable [53][57][60]. - **Import and Export**: In November, the caustic soda import was 0.09 tons, and the cumulative caustic soda import from January to November was 0.82 tons. In November, the caustic soda export was 27.44 tons, and the cumulative caustic soda export from January to November was 376.67 tons [66][72]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the enterprise sample inventory was 44.22 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.83% [77]. - **Profit**: Last week, the profit of Shandong chlor-alkali decreased month-on-month [80]. 4. Options Market Analysis - The 20-day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was reported at 25.81%. The implied volatility of at-the-money call and put options was around 30.85% [83].

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.12.31」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： MA2605合约短线预计在2190-2280区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周港口甲醇市场继续偏强运行，其中江苏价格波动区间在2120-2200元/吨，广东价 格波动在2090-2130元/吨。内地甲醇价格延续疲软，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1870- 1900元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间2160-2200元/吨。内地甲醇市场延续疲弱走势，企业出 货不畅致库存高企，降价去库成为主流操作。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失量少于恢复涉及产能产出量，整体产量增加。 市场供应量增加，下游原料库存高位，采买积极性下降，内地项目延续稳定运行，本周内地企业 库存增加，短期供应相对充裕背景下，冬季部分需求预期偏弱不利于上游生产端出货节奏，库存 或整体维持增量预期。港口方面，本周甲醇港口库存继续累库，江苏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with the daily K-line focusing on support around 5360 and resistance around 5580. The supply surplus situation is expected to continue, and the international oil price has limited upside potential [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of pure benzene is 5487 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the settlement price is 5491 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan. The trading volume is 14907 lots, down 15784 lots; the open interest is 27128 lots, up 1212 lots [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, South China, North China, and Northeast markets are 5487 yuan/ton, 5360 yuan/ton, 5300 yuan/ton, and 5206 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi regions are 5375 yuan/ton and 5040 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea is 664 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton; the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China is 671.36 dollars/ton, down 3.73 dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 62.74 dollars/barrel, and the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan is 534.63 dollars/ton, down 7.62 dollars/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 74.89%, down 0.05%; the weekly output is 43.63 tons, down 0.03 tons. The port inventory of pure benzene is 27.3 tons, up 1.3 tons. The production cost is 5109 yuan/ton, down 52.2 yuan/ton; the production profit is 201 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 70.7%, up 1.57%; the capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid are 74.04%, 78.15%, 62.98%, and 63.6% respectively, up 4.84%, 3.22%, 1.63%, and 4% respectively [2]. Industry News - From December 19th to 25th, the operating rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 0.05% to 74.89%, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene increased by 2.94% to 59.83%. From December 20th to 26th, the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream increased by 2.59% to 71.07%. As of December 29th, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports was 30 tons, up 9.89% from last week. From December 20th to 26th, the profit of petroleum benzene increased by 38 yuan/ton to 201 yuan/ton [2]. Viewpoint Summary - The inventory of pure benzene continues to accumulate and remains at a high level. The profit of petroleum benzene has slightly recovered and is in a repair trend. A 210,000 - ton petroleum benzene plant in the Northeast and a hydrogenated benzene plant in the Northwest and Southwest will restart, and the domestic output of pure benzene is expected to increase slightly. The load of large - scale styrene plants is stable, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable; the caprolactam industry continues to cut production to maintain prices, and a small number of plants will resume production; the operating rates of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid plants are expected to increase. The supply - demand gap in the spot market narrows slowly, and the supply surplus is expected to continue. In terms of cost, the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela and between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of deterioration in the short term, and the supply pressure of international crude oil remains, so the upside potential of oil prices is limited. BZ2603 is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2].

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-12-30 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 修装置陆续恢复，成本端支撑或受削弱。PVC弱现实与强预期博弈，短期预计震荡走势，V2605日度K线关 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 注4700附近支撑与4860附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4810 | 33 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the freight index (European line) futures prices fluctuated slightly, with the main contract EC2602 closing down 2.08% and the far - month contracts down between -1% and -1%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index rebounded by 153.44 points from last week, a 9.7% increase. On December 26, SCFI continued to rise, with a 6.7% increase to 1656.32 points. The freight rate of the European line of SCFI increased by 10.2% to 1690 US dollars/TEU, driving up the futures prices. The manufacturing PMI in China in November showed a slight recovery, and the new export order index rose to 47.9, indicating a pre - Christmas recovery in terminal transportation demand. Maersk announced an increase in the PSS for European lines from January 6, 2026. The expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea has improved, and the euro - zone economy continues to pick up. Overall, the improvement in the trade - war situation and the arrival of the shipping peak season are conducive to the recovery of futures prices, while the short - term impact of the geopolitical situation on freight rates is weakened. The freight rate market is mainly affected by seasonal demand, and investors are advised to be cautious [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1795.100, down 38.2; EC secondary main contract closing price: down 4.40. The spread of EC2602 - EC2604 is 634.90, down 18.10; the spread of EC2602 - EC2606 is 425.10, down 23.80. The EC contract basis is - 52.46, up 181.24. The main contract position of EC is 27855 hands, down 2582 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European line) (weekly): 1742.64, up 153.44; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1301.41, up 339.31. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1656.32, up 103.40. Container ship capacity: up 0.21 (in ten thousand TEUs). CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1146.67, up 21.94; CCFI (European line) (weekly): 1519.06, up 45.16. Baltic Dry Bulk Index (daily): 1877.00, up 12.00; Panama - type freight index (daily): 1267.00, down 1.00. The average charter price of Panama - type ships is up 0.00; the average charter price of Cape - type ships is 22415.00, up 295.00 [1] Industry News - China will implement import provisional tax rates lower than the most - favored - nation tax rates on 935 commodities from January 1, 2026, and the total number of tariff items will increase to 8972. US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, and both sides said the talks "made great progress". The minutes of the Bank of Japan's December policy meeting showed that many members believed that the real interest rate in Japan was still at a very low level, implying a continued interest - rate hike [1] Key Events to Watch - China's official manufacturing PMI for December on December 31 at 09:30; the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 (in ten thousand) on December 31 at 21:30 [1]

何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 甲醇产业日报 2025-12-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2219 | 58 甲醇5-9价差(日,元/吨) | 27 | 18 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 814284 | 40426 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -85919 | 44156 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 6648 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2170 | 30 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1825 | -20 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 315 | 30 ...