1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The short - term near - month contracts may be in a wide - range oscillation state, and one can try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 2888 yuan/500 kilograms, with a环比 increase of 2 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 49587 lots, with a环比 increase of 2623 lots [2] - The monthly spread (5 - 9) of the egg futures is - 512 yuan/500 kilograms, with a环比 decrease of 34 yuan [2] - The futures trading volume (active contract) of eggs is 186319 lots, with a环比 decrease of 1370 lots [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.06 yuan/jin, with a环比 decrease of 0.06 yuan [2] - The basis (spot - futures) is 167 yuan/500 kilograms, with a环比 decrease of 67 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 114.24 (2015 = 100), with a环比 decrease of 1.02 [2] - The culled laying hen index nationwide is 114.44 (2015 = 100), with a环比 decrease of 10.19 [2] - The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.8 yuan per chick, with no change [2] - The new - hatched chick index nationwide is 67.09 (2015 = 100), with a环比 decrease of 9.56 [2] - The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, with no change [2] - The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.36 yuan per chicken, with no change [2] - The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 7.9 yuan/kg, with a环比 decrease of 0.04 yuan [2] - The age of culled chickens nationwide is 510 days, with a环比 increase of 3 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.56 yuan/kg, with a环比 increase of 0.03 yuan [2] - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.83 yuan/kg, with a环比 decrease of 0.04 yuan [2] - The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.92 yuan/kg, with a环比 increase of 0.08 yuan [2] - The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.12 days, with a环比 increase of 0.02 days [2] - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1 day, with a环比 decrease of 0.01 days [2] - The export volume of fresh eggs in the current month is 13394.53 tons, with a环比 increase of 178.74 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales areas is 7023 tons, with a环比 decrease of 104 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 5.99 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.78 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.53 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Beijing, it is 6.30 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan [2] - The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old chicken culls. The laying hen inventory has slightly decreased, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved [2] 3.7 Key Points to Focus On - There is no news today [2]

生猪产业日报 2025-12-22 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11345 | 20 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 161527 | -5817 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 823 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -46530 | -136 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻 ...

| 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,277 | +8↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1188551 | -2627↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 23,798 | +3437↑ HC1-5合约价差(元/吨) | 5 | -2↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 131893 | +889↑ HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 151 | +1↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,310.00 | +20.00↑ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,270.00 | 0.00 | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,330.00 | 0.00 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,180.00 | 0.00 | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 33.00 | +12.00↑ 杭州热卷-螺纹钢价差(元/吨) | -20.00 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for pulp futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 5650.00 yuan, with a current price of 5620.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.33% [1] - The market sentiment is mixed, with strong expectations on the supply side due to high overseas prices and shutdown plans of foreign pulp mills, while the demand side shows weak transmission of price increases in downstream paper products [2] - The current market is driven by funds and expectations, but the actual fundamentals may not support high prices, indicating a risk of price correction if demand weakens or funds withdraw [2] Group 2 - According to customs data, the import volume of bleached softwood pulp in October 2025 was 691,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, with a total import volume of 7.122 million tons for the year, up 2.7% year-on-year [3] - The profit margins for paper mills are low, leading to a primary focus on demand-based procurement of pulp, with overall demand weakening as indicated by declines in production rates for various paper types [3] - As of December 18, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp at Chinese ports was 1.993 million tons, showing a decrease of 43,000 tons from the previous period, marking a 2.1% decline, and indicating a continued trend of inventory reduction over four weeks [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures price of the Container Freight Index (European Line) rose slightly. The main contract EC2602 closed up 1.75%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight index was 1510.56, up 1.46 points from last week, a 0.1% increase. The Christmas stocking demand is beneficial for the futures price to rise, but the price increase announcements failed to materialize, and leading shipping companies have successively lowered the container prices, causing the previous price increase to be reversed. The traditional peak - season boost effect may be weaker than expected due to high tax rates on exports to the US. The freight market is highly influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][7][39] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - Futures contracts: EC2512 fell 1.28% (- 21.20), closing at 1630.10; EC2602 rose 1.75% (29.60), closing at 1719.80; EC2604 rose 0.71% (8.00), closing at 1128.80; EC2606 rose 2.16% (27.20), closing at 1288.30; EC2608 rose 1.59% (22.70), closing at 1453.20; EC2610 rose 1.63% (16.80), closing at 1050.30. The SCFIS index rose 0.1% (1.46), closing at 1510.56. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2512 contract showed a divergence this week [9][10][15] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - China's re - implementation of export license management for steel after 16 years aims to strengthen monitoring, statistics and analysis of steel product exports and track product quality. The EU's FSR investigations on Chinese enterprises are opposed by China. The full - scale customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 expanded the "zero - tariff" commodity scope to over 6600 tariff items. The EU Commission proposed to relax the 2035 "ban on fuel - powered vehicles" requirement to a 90% emission reduction. The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the fourth consecutive time. The Fed's Williams said that the US unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.5% by the end of 2025, and inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% in 2026 and fall to 2% in 2027 [18] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Freight Index (European Line) futures contracts both contracted this week. The export container freight index rebounded slightly. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, while European - line shipping capacity decreased slightly. The BDI and BPI declined, and freight rates fluctuated slightly. The charter price of Panamax ships continued to rise, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [24][27][31] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints, the Christmas stocking demand is beneficial for the futures price to rise, but the price increase announcements failed to materialize, and the traditional peak - season boost effect may be weaker than expected. The freight market is highly influenced by news, and investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data [39][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the fundamentals of the natural rubber market resonated with commodity linkages, causing rubber prices to surge multiple times. The asking price center of the imported rubber market moved upwards. Traders mainly rotated and exchanged positions, with arbitrageurs actively closing positions and selling, while some added positions to buy. Factories remained cautiously on the sidelines. The spot price center of domestic natural rubber also moved upwards. The fluctuating and rising futures market boosted market trading sentiment, and holders adjusted their asking prices upwards. Downstream inquiry sentiment slightly improved, with cautious purchases based on rigid demand [7]. - In the domestic Yunnan production area, the rubber tapping season has ended, and the raw material purchase price has remained basically stable. In the Hainan production area, with the arrival of winter, the number of times local rubber farmers tap rubber has decreased, and the dry content of latex has continued to decline. The amount of rubber that can be collected on the island has significantly decreased, and some private processing plants have stopped purchasing latex, with their production lines gradually entering a shutdown state. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has increased compared to the previous period. The arrival of overseas standard rubber at the port has shown an increasing trend, while the arrival of mixed rubber has slightly decreased. Downstream tire factories have been cautious in replenishing their stocks, with most purchasing sentiment being wait - and - see. The overall outbound volume has been small. In terms of demand, tire enterprises have flexibly arranged production this week, with some enterprises controlling production. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has been running weakly, entering the seasonal off - season. The overall shipment rhythm of enterprises has been slow, and the finished product inventory has increased. Under the pressure of production and sales, some enterprises have limited or stopped production [7]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,650 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,200 - 12,650 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The fundamentals of the natural rubber market resonated with commodity linkages, and rubber prices surged multiple times. The asking price center of imported rubber and domestic natural rubber spot prices both moved upwards [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan has stopped tapping, and Hainan's rubber - tapping volume has decreased. Qingdao Port's inventory has continued to accumulate. Overseas standard rubber arrivals have increased, and downstream tire factories have been cautious in restocking. Tire enterprises have flexibly arranged production, with some controlling production, and are in the seasonal off - season [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,650, and the nr2602 contract between 12,200 - 12,650 in the short term [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.26%. The main contract price of 20 - number rubber fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 0.24% [10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 19, the Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 87,160 tons, an increase of 30,170 tons from the previous week. The 20 - number rubber warehouse receipts were 58,968 tons, a decrease of 605 tons from the previous week [25]. - **Spreads**: As of December 19, the spread between the Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 contracts was 20, and the spread between the 20 - number rubber 2 - 3 contracts was - 25 [20]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of December 18, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 15,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous week [29]. - **20 - number Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of December 18, the 20 - number rubber basis was 536 yuan/ton, a decrease of 158 yuan/ton from the previous week. The non - standard basis was - 770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton from the previous week [35] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of December 19, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 56 (+0.75) Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump was 50.75 (+1.3) Thai baht/kg. The standard rubber's theoretical processing profit was 2.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 48.6 US dollars/ton from the previous week [39]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Prices**: As of December 18, the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 13,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from the previous week. The Yunnan production area was in the off - season [42]. 3.3.2 Imports - In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [45]. 3.3.3 Qingdao Inventory - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,200 tons, an increase of 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%. The general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58% [48]. 3.3.4 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points [51]. - **Tire Exports**: In October 2025 China's tire exports were 653,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5050 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative tire exports were 7.0438 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68% [54]. - **Domestic Heavy - truck Sales**: In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% and a year - on - year increase of about 46%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [57]

Report Overview - Report Title: Red Date Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Cuibing [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou red dates futures fell by about 0.34%. The Xinjiang procurement is nearing completion, and the follow - up market trend depends on the peak - season consumption performance. If the terminal demand is released as expected, the inventory clearance speed may accelerate and support the market to stabilize; otherwise, the inventory pressure may increase. With short - term supply being loose and demand showing no obvious improvement, the red date price is expected to remain weak [9][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Future trading tips include monitoring spot prices and the consumer side - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou red dates futures fell by about 0.34% this week - As of December 18, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates was 16,108 tons, an increase of 318 tons from last week, a 2.01% week - on - week increase and a 34.68% year - on - year increase [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: The price of the Zhengzhou red dates 2605 contract fell by about 0.34% this week [10] - **Top 20 futures positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in red dates futures was - 10,420 lots [14] - **Futures warehouse receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou red dates warehouse receipts was 1,092 [18] - **Futures price spread**: As of this week, the price spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange red dates 2605 contract and the 2609 contract was - 310 yuan/ton [21] - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the Hebei gray date spot price and the main contract of red dates futures was 735 yuan/ton [24] - **Procurement price in the main production area**: As of December 19, 2025, the unified purchase price of red dates in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg [27] - **First - grade red date spot price**: As of December 19, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade gray dates in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.35 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.45 yuan/jin [31] - **Super - grade red date spot price**: As of December 19, 2025, the spot price of super - grade gray dates in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.63 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.9 yuan/kg [35] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply side - Inventory**: As of December 18, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates was 16,108 tons, an increase of 318 tons from last week, a 2.01% week - on - week increase and a 34.68% year - on - year increase [40] - **Supply side - Production decline**: The red date production in the 2025/26 season is expected to decline [44] - **Demand side - Export**: In October 2025, China's red date export volume was 2,205,220 kg, the export value was 35,238,139 yuan, and the export average price was 15,979.42 yuan/ton. The export volume decreased by 3.44% month - on - month and 33.29% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 25,753,622 kg, a 0.18% year - on - year increase [48] - **Demand side - BOCE trading**: This week, the BOCE Xinjiang red date "Good Brand" had a small amount of trading in orders [53] 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Options market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for red dates this week is presented in the report, but specific data is not summarized [54] - **Stock market - Haoxiangni**: The report shows the price - earnings ratio chart of Haoxiangni, but no specific data is summarized [56]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices generally declined this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index falling to varying degrees. The performance of the four stock - index futures was differentiated. The domestic economic data in November continued to be weak, and the US employment and inflation data in November showed a slowdown, but the market's confidence in the data was affected by the government shutdown, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation only slightly increased. The market trading activity declined compared with last week [8]. - In November, the external demand in the fundamentals improved slightly, but the endogenous economic momentum still needs to be boosted. The Central Economic Work Conference and the Political Bureau Meeting in December set a positive tone. Next year, fiscal and monetary policies will continue to be loose, but the market still has differences on the implementation rhythm of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. In the short term, the market lacks incremental information, and the interest rate may continue to fluctuate [8]. - The real - estate sector dragged down the overall fixed - asset investment. The growth rate of infrastructure and manufacturing investment decreased slightly, and the real - estate sector remained at a low level. The production declined, and the differentiation between upstream and downstream enterprises became more serious. The policy of expanding domestic demand is expected to be continuously strengthened, which is expected to drive the growth of the consumer market [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 0.28%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock - Index Futures fell by 0.10%. A - share major indices generally declined, and the four stock - index futures showed differentiated performance. The domestic economic data in November was weak, and the US employment and inflation data in November had credibility issues due to the government shutdown. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation only slightly increased, and the market trading activity declined. Allocation suggestion: Buy on dips [8]. Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.04%, with a weekly change of - 0.07BP, and the main 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose by 0.14%. In November, the external demand improved slightly, but the endogenous economic momentum still needs to be boosted. The policies in December were positive, and the expectation of loose monetary policy increased, but there were differences in the market regarding the implementation rhythm of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. In the short term, the interest rate may continue to fluctuate. Allocation suggestion: Range trading [8]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index rose by 1.50%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index rose by 0.43%. With the strengthening of crude oil and gold, the commodity index is expected to further strengthen. Attention should be paid to the US CPI and PCE data released on Friday. Allocation suggestion: Wait - and - see [8]. Foreign Exchange - The euro - US dollar exchange rate fell by 0.12%, and the euro - US dollar 2603 contract fell by 0.19%. The weak non - farm payrolls report, lower - than - expected CPI inflation data, and the dovish stance of FOMC officials support the Fed's loose policy path. The Fed's restart of interest - rate cuts will suppress the US dollar index. The Bank of Japan's tendency to turn hawkish and the European Central Bank's wait - and - see attitude will support the euro and the yen in the short term. Allocation suggestion: Cautious wait - and - see [8]. Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: The central government emphasized expanding domestic demand, stabilizing the real - estate market, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy next year. It will also focus on preventing and resolving financial risks [14]. - **International News**: The Fed's Williams said the current policy stance was appropriate; Trump's new policy may weaken US AI regulation; multiple Fed officials expressed their views on inflation and interest - rate cuts; Europe proposed to form a "multinational force" to support Ukraine [16]. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: From January to November, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, with real - estate investment falling by 15.9%. In November, the social consumer goods retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year and decreased by 0.42% month - on - month [12]. - **US**: In November, the unemployment rate was 4.6%, the non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, and the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year [11][17]. - **EU**: The eurozone's industrial output in October increased by 0.8% month - on - month, and the December manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.2 [17]. - **UK**: The November unemployment rate was 4.39%, the December manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 51.2, and the central bank interest rate was cut to 3.75% [17]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - On December 22, 2025, China's one - year loan prime rate and the UK's Q3 GDP annual growth rate final value will be released. - On December 24, 2025, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 will be released. - On December 25, 2025, Japan's November unemployment rate will be released [78].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1670 - 1730 in the short - term [7]. - The urea market first declined and then rebounded slightly this week. After India's new urea tender, the futures price rose, and the spot market sentiment was boosted [8]. - New device overhauls led to a slight decrease in domestic urea production this week. Production is expected to increase slightly next week. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate may decline steadily [8]. - Domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline this week, and there is a possibility of further destocking in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1670 - 1730 in the short - term [7]. - Market review: The urea market first declined and then rebounded slightly. The average price in Shandong increased by 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. After India's tender, the futures price rose, and the spot market improved [8]. - Market outlook: Production may increase slightly next week. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate may decline. Enterprise inventories may continue to decline [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price trend: The main contract price of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 0.83% this week [11]. - Inter - delivery spread: As of December 19, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 19 [14]. - Open interest analysis: There is no specific analysis content in the provided text. - Warehouse receipts: As of December 19, there were 10976 urea warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 320 from last week [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic price: As of December 18, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1710 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1700 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [28]. - Overseas price: As of December 18, the FOB price of urea in China was 387.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton from last week [32]. - Basis: As of December 18, the urea basis was 2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Coal price: As of December 17, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week [39]. - Natural gas price: As of December 18, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.95 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.16 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Capacity utilization and production: As of December 18, China's urea production was 136.59 tons, a decrease of 1.95 tons from the previous period, a 1.41% week - on - week decrease. The capacity utilization rate was 80.69%, a 1.16% decrease from the previous period [42]. - Inventory: As of December 18, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 13.8 tons, a 12.20% increase from the previous period. As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 tons, a 4.42% decrease from last week [45]. - Export: In October 2025, urea exports were 120.25 tons, a 12.30% decrease from the previous month, and the average export price was 432.05 dollars/ton, a 10.83% decrease from the previous month [48]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 39.37%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous period [51]. - Melamine: As of December 18, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 58.55%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points from last week [51].

Report Summary 1. Strategy Suggestion - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short term [7] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market strengthened, while the inland market was weak. The overall methanol production increased as the output from restored capacity exceeded the loss from maintenance and reduction. Inland supply was abundant, and enterprise inventory increased. Port inventory showed a narrow decline overall, with different trends in East and South China. The MTO industry's weekly average operation rate decreased, but it is expected to increase slightly in the short term [8] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Condition**: The port methanol market strengthened, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2070 - 2190 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2050 - 2130 yuan/ton. Inland prices were weak, with Ordos' price ranging from 1950 - 1973 yuan/ton and Dongying's receiving price from 2225 - 2230 yuan/ton [8] - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production increased. Inland supply was sufficient, and enterprise inventory increased. Port inventory decreased slightly overall. The MTO industry's operation rate is expected to increase slightly in the short term [8] 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillated and closed higher, with a weekly increase of 2.33% [12] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of December 19, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 26 [16] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 18, there were 6789 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 1834 from last week [23] 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Prices**: As of December 18, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2167.5 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1925 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 242.5 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from last week [29] - **Foreign Prices**: As of December 18, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 251 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 67 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton from last week [34] - **Basis**: As of December 18, the Zhengzhou methanol basis was - 6.5 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from last week [37] 3.4 Industry Chain - **Upstream**: As of December 17, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of December 18, the NYMEX natural gas closed at 3.95 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.16 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42] - **Industry**: As of December 18, China's methanol production was 2055975 tons, an increase of 18370 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.52%, a week - on - week increase of 0.90%. As of December 17, the inventory of sample production enterprises was 39.11 million tons, an increase of 3.83 million tons from the previous period, and the order backlog was 22.04 million tons, an increase of 1.30 million tons from the previous period. The total port inventory was 121.88 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons from the previous period. In October 2025, China's methanol imports were 161.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.01%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative imports were 1127.93 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.10%. As of December 18, the import profit was 5.45 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.7 yuan/ton from last week [47][50][54] - **Downstream**: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 89.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%. As of December 19, the domestic methanol - to - olefins spot profit was - 1031 yuan/ton, a decrease of 198 yuan/ton from last week [57][60]