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瑞达期货铂镍金市场周报-20251219
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 09:16
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the platinum and palladium markets showed strong performance. The palladium futures main contract reached the daily limit twice, and the platinum futures main contract hit the daily limit once. The palladium 2606 contract rose 23.30% this week, and the platinum 2606 contract rose 18.03% [5]. - The recent sharp increase in platinum - group metal prices is mainly driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The rapid recovery of the London platinum lease rate indicates tightened physical supply, and the continuous increase in palladium ETF holdings exacerbates the supply - demand contradiction. High basis and price differences between domestic and foreign markets stimulate arbitrage motives [5]. - In the medium to long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expanding long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new - energy vehicles. However, the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support prices, and its low current price may make it a cost - effective choice again [5]. - The parabolic rise in the prices of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange may increase the short - term correction risk due to the upward repair demand of the basis. Next week, the spot price of London platinum is expected to face resistance at $2000 per ounce and support at $1800 per ounce, while the spot price of London palladium is expected to face resistance at $1750 per ounce and support at $1500 per ounce [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - This week, the platinum and palladium markets were strong. The palladium 2606 contract rose 23.30%, and the platinum 2606 contract rose 18.03%. The price increase is driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The medium - to - long - term price of platinum may be supported, while the demand outlook for palladium is weak, but there is some short - term price support. There is a short - term correction risk, and the price ranges for London platinum and palladium are predicted [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - As of December 19, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium main 2606 contract was at 480.20 yuan per gram, up 23.20% this week, and the platinum main 2606 contract was at 533.55 yuan per gram, up 18.03% [10]. - As of December 2, 2025, the net long position of NYMEX platinum increased by 1.51% month - on - month to 23,286, and the net long position of NYMEX palladium decreased by 16.76% month - on - month to - 1491 [15]. - This week, the basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts strengthened [16]. - As of December 18, 2025, NYMEX platinum inventory increased by 1.66% month - on - month to 624,733.09 ounces, and palladium inventory decreased by 1.26% month - on - month to 186,849.34 ounces [23]. - This week, the price ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold increased, the rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices increased, and the positive correlation between platinum prices, NYMEX platinum inventory, and the US dollar index increased [24][27][31]. 3.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of October 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum both decreased [35]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts is marginally weakening, and the total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a moderate downward trend, while the global supply of platinum and palladium is declining [40][45][50]. 3.4 Macroeconomics and Options - This week, the US dollar index weakened, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded slightly [54].
焦炭市场周报:钢厂低采、原料反弹,焦炭短期底部震荡-20251219
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 09:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - This week, coking coal and coke experienced a technical rebound, and the mid - and downstream sectors replenished their stocks after the price decline. On the demand side, the crude steel output will continue to decline, the real estate investment data is poor, and the downstream maintains low procurement, with insufficient overall replenishment willingness. In terms of profit, coking coal gives up some profit to coke, but there is little room for a significant improvement in coke profit. For price trends, the coking coal futures contract 2605 should focus on the support at 1060, and the coke futures contract 2605 price should focus on the support at 1680 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights Summary - **Macro Aspect**: Among 11 sample steel mills in Jiangsu, 6 clearly stated they would implement scrap steel winter storage plans, accounting for about 55%. In 2025, most steel mills planning for winter storage and their planned storage volumes are lower than in 2024, with only 2 mills having the same plan as last year. The China Iron and Steel Association's official said self - discipline and spontaneous production control are important for high - quality industry development [7]. - **Overseas Aspect**: Fed Governor Waller said there is a 50 - 100 basis - point interest rate cut space as the job market weakens and inflation is under control [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current pig iron output is 226.55 (-2.65) tons, and the coke inventory is moderately weak. The steel mill inventory has increased this period, and attention should be paid to the steel mill's replenishment rhythm. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract 2605 is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of December 19, the coke futures contract open interest is 36,900 lots, a decrease of 9,739 lots compared to the previous period; the 5 - 1 contract monthly spread is 142.5, a decrease of 10.5 points compared to the previous period; the registered coke warehouse receipt volume is 2,070 lots, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period; the futures main contract screw - coke ratio is 1.95, a decrease of 0.12 points compared to the previous period [11][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 18, 2025, the coke closing price at Rizhao Port is 1,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. As of December 19, the coke basis is - 73.5 yuan, a decrease of 162.0 points compared to the previous period [25]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Mine and Wash Plant**: This week, the utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples is 86.6%, a 1.3% increase compared to the previous period. The daily average raw coal output is 1.927 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons compared to the previous period. The raw coal inventory is 4.789 million tons, an increase of 65,000 tons compared to the previous period. The daily average clean coal output is 758,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared to the previous period, and the clean coal inventory is 2.728 million tons, an increase of 175,000 tons compared to the previous period. The utilization rate of 314 independent coal wash plant samples is 37.7%, a 0.5% decrease compared to the previous period; the daily clean coal output is 273,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared to the previous period; the clean coal inventory is 3.273 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons compared to the previous period [29]. - **Coking Plant**: This week, the utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 70.50%, a decrease of 1.42%; the daily average coke output is 493,400 tons, a decrease of 9,900 tons. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton; the average profit of quasi - first - class coke in Shanxi is 35 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 65 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - class coke is - 23 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - class coke is 66 yuan/ton [33]. - **Steel Mill**: This week, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills is 2.2655 million tons, a decrease of 26,500 tons compared to last week and 28,600 tons compared to last year. As of December 19, 2025, the steel mill's coke inventory is 633,730 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons, and the available days of coke are 11.72 days, an increase of 0.06 days [37]. - **Inventory**: As of December 19, 2025, the total coke inventory (independent coking plants + 4 major ports + steel mills) is 8.5712 million tons, a decrease of 93,800 tons compared to the previous period and a 1.33% increase compared to the same period last year. The coke inventory of 230 independent coking enterprises is 51,900 tons, an increase of 1,790 tons. The coke inventory of 18 ports is 2.3945 million tons, a decrease of 91,500 tons; among them, the coke inventory of 5 northern ports is 914,000 tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons, the 10 eastern ports is 1.1415 million tons, a decrease of 500 tons, and the 3 southern ports is 339,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons [41][46]. - **Export**: From January to October, the cumulative coke export is 622,000 tons, a 13.90% decrease compared to the same period last year. From January to November, the cumulative steel export volume reaches 108 million tons, a 6.7% increase compared to the same period last year [50]. - **Housing Data**: In October 2025, the housing sales price index of 70 large and medium - sized cities shows a 0.70% month - on - month decline in second - hand residential properties. From January to October 2025, the cumulative new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, a 19.80% year - on - year decrease [53].
菜籽类市场周报:国际菜籽下跌拖累,菜系品种同步走弱-20251219
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 09:10
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed market is affected by international factors, with domestic rapeseed products following the downward trend of international rapeseed. The short - term outlook for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is weak, but there are also some supporting factors in the domestic market [7][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Rapeseed Oil - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed oil futures continued to decline, with the 05 - contract closing at 8,744 yuan/ton, a decrease of 603 yuan/ton from the previous week [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The AAFC raised Canada's rapeseed ending stocks for the 2025/26 season, easing the supply - demand situation and dragging down prices. Other factors include the EPA's pending biofuel blending mandates, the decline in Malaysian palm oil exports, and the drop in crude oil prices. Domestically, the supply of imported rapeseed is tightening, and oil mills are mostly shut down, leading to inventory reduction. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and potential Canadian imports may increase future supply. With ample soybean oil supply, rapeseed oil demand remains limited. The short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [7]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed lower, with the 05 - contract closing at 2,323 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: During the US soybean export season, supply is abundant, and Brazil's high - yield forecast intensifies competition. China's procurement has slowed down, causing the US soybean futures price to fall. Domestically, near - term imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, tightening supply. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and potential Canadian imports may increase future supply. With the good substitution advantage of soybean meal, rapeseed meal demand is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to China's soybean procurement [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures declined significantly this week, with a total open interest of 208,179 lots, an increase of 37,152 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed lower, with a total open interest of 598,488 lots, an increase of 16,820 lots from last week [14]. - The net position of the top 20 traders in rapeseed oil futures was - 27,499 this week, compared to - 2,529 last week, indicating a significant increase in net short positions. The net position of the top 20 traders in rapeseed meal futures was - 74,459 this week, compared to - 70,504 last week, also showing a significant increase in net short positions [20]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3,926 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 0 lots [27]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,230 yuan/ton, a significant decline from last week. The basis between the active rapeseed oil contract and the Jiangsu spot price was + 486 yuan/ton [33]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,400 yuan/ton, a slight decline from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active rapeseed meal contract was + 77 yuan/ton [39]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was - 2 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 59 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [45]. Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of the 05 - contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.764, and the average spot price ratio was 3.85 [48]. Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils - The 05 - contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,032 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly this week. The 05 - contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 452 yuan/ton, also narrowing slightly this week [58]. Spread between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The 05 - contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 412 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 700 yuan/ton [64]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in December 2025, January, and February were 150,000, 450,000, and 420,000 tons respectively [68]. - The spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1,189 yuan/ton as of December 18. As of the 50th week of 2025, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%. China's rapeseed imports in October 2025 were 0 tons [72][76][80]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed oil inventory was 384,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.34%. China's rapeseed oil imports in November 2025 were 170,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the same period last year and an increase of 30,000 tons from last month [84]. - **Demand - Side**: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 427,600 tons. As of the end of November, the monthly retail sales of catering services were 605.7 billion yuan. As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the weekly contract volume of domestic imported rapeseed oil was 54,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 9.98% [88][92]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, the same as last week. China's rapeseed meal imports in October 2025 were 220,600 tons, a decrease of 85,700 tons from the same period last year and an increase of 63,000 tons from last month [96][100]. - **Demand - Side**: As of November 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,977,900 tons [104]. 4. Options Market Analysis - As of December 19, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 16.49%, a decrease of 0.71% from last week, at a medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [108].
12月产量将创历史新高 预计甲醇维持底部震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-19 08:09
Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract slightly declining by 1.10% to 2148.00 CNY/ton [1] Supply - The operating rate of production enterprises has increased to 90.52%, with production reaching 2.056 million tons, marking a historical high [1] - Domestic gas-based methanol production facilities are undergoing insufficient maintenance, leading to record production levels in December [1] Demand - The MTO (Methanol-to-Olefins) industry is seeing a decrease in weekly average operating rates due to the continued shutdown of facilities at Ningbo Fude and Qinghai Salt Lake [1] - The operational load of the Lianhong Gelun MTO facility is gradually increasing, which is expected to result in a slight increase in industry operating rates in the short term [1] Inventory - As of December 18, methanol inventory at East China ports was 610,600 tons, down from 632,900 tons on December 11, reflecting a decrease of 22,300 tons [1] Market Outlook - According to Everbright Futures, the shutdown of certain facilities will lead to a decline in imports from mid to late December into January, while MTO facility loads are also expected to decrease [1] - Due to slow unloading rates, there is a significant drop in inventory, which may lead to a rebound in prices; however, the potential for a substantial increase in downstream polyolefin prices is limited, suggesting a price ceiling for methanol [1] - Methanol prices are expected to maintain a bottom oscillation trend [1]
美委地缘变动频繁 燃料油预计整体跟随原油调整
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-19 05:58
Core Viewpoint - Fuel oil futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 2380.00 yuan, closing at 2383.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 2.22% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Everbright Futures, the absolute prices of high and low sulfur fuel oil (FU and LU) are expected to fluctuate in line with oil prices due to ample supply in the market [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Venezuela, have impacted the supply of high sulfur heavy raw materials, potentially providing temporary support to the market, although the sustainability of this support remains uncertain [3] - Ruida Futures indicated that the overall trend of fuel oil is likely to follow adjustments in crude oil prices, with short-term fundamentals appearing weak due to decreased refinery utilization rates and lower demand for ship fuel [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Everbright Futures highlighted that the high and low sulfur fuel oil market remains under pressure due to sufficient supply, with expectations of reduced arbitrage volumes from Western markets to Singapore in December [2] - Guotou Anxin Futures pointed out that while low sulfur quotas in China are limited, leading to a potential increase in import demand, the overall supply remains abundant, suggesting a weak medium-term outlook [3] - Ruida Futures reported that the overall supply pressure persists, with stable refinery capacity utilization but decreased output from independent refineries, leading to a decline in demand for ship fuel [3]
12.19商业观察:贵金属期货未来走势猜想和选择瑞达期货的理由
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-18 22:08
在当前的宽松货币政策环境下,贵金属期货市场呈现出一个长期核心逻辑清晰,但短期多空因素交织的 复杂局面。黄金和白银虽同为贵金属,但其驱动逻辑和市场表现存在显著差异。 为了让你更清晰地把握两者的不同,下面汇总了它们在当前环境下的核心逻辑、市场表现和潜在风险: 黄金 核心逻辑 "去美元化"与信用对冲:央行持续购金、美国债务问题引发的美元信用担忧是其根本驱动 力。 趋势性强:被视为长期趋势行情。机构预测,在央行持续购买和美联储持续宽松的背景下,金价有潜力 继续上涨。 全球央行购金:这是最坚实的长期需求来源。 货币政策预期变化:若美联储放缓降息步伐或美元意外走强,可能抑制金价。 白银 金融与工业属性共振:除跟随黄金的金融属性外,新能源(如光伏)等产业需求提供了额外支撑。 波动性大、弹性强:由于市场规模较小且存在结构性供需缺口,价格上涨时涨幅往往超越黄金。 长期供需失衡:显性库存处于历史低位,远低于安全边界,构成了价格的基本支撑。 短期逼仓风险消退:交割月过后,由空头回补带来的极端上涨动力可能减弱。 日本央行加息:可能引发全球资金回流,造成流动性冲击和短期波动。 未来走势猜想:情景展望 基于以上逻辑,对两种贵金属未来可能 ...
瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251218
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-18 09:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New partial plant overhauls led to a slight decline in domestic urea production. With no planned plant shutdowns next week and 2 - 4 shut - down plants possibly resuming production, considering short - term faults, production is expected to increase slightly [2] - Agriculture is in a short - term rigid demand off - season, with recent reserve demand for phased replenishment, and there is still reserve demand expectation in the Northeast. Environmental warnings in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu and other places led to a slight decline in compound fertilizer production, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer is expected to decline steadily or slightly [2] - Main urea factories in major production and sales areas had a slight inventory build - up this week. However, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia showed obvious inventory reduction due to reserve demand from the Northwest and Northeast. The short - term receipt of orders by urea factories improved, and there may be further inventory reduction. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1670 - 1720 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract was 1708 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of Zhengzhou urea was - 51 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton; the trading volume of Zhengzhou urea's main contract was 162,527 lots, up 97,688 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea was - 13,481; the exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea were 11,177, down 25 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu and Shandong remained unchanged, while the price in Anhui increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1670 yuan/ton. The basis of Zhengzhou urea's main contract was - 8 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remained unchanged at 347.5 and 387.5 US dollars/ton respectively [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory was 12.3 million tons, up 1.8 million tons; enterprise inventory was 117.97 million tons, down 5.45 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate was 81.85%, up 0.02 percentage points; the daily urea output was 197,900 tons, unchanged. Urea exports were 1.2 billion tons, down 17%; the monthly urea output was 6.00033 billion tons, up 129,060 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate was 40.62%, up 0.09 percentage points; the melamine operating rate was 61.86%, up 0.2 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 137 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea was - 13 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 4.3825 billion tons, up 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 32,200 tons, up 100 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.45 million tons or 4.42%. The inventory reduction was mainly concentrated in North, Northeast and Northwest China [2] - As of December 18, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 13.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 million tons or 12.20%. The current export land - to - port collection is in progress smoothly, and some ports have received goods successively [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]
多元金融板块12月18日跌0.6%,瑞达期货领跌,主力资金净流出2.11亿元
Zheng Xing Xing Ye Ri Bao· 2025-12-18 09:09
从资金流向上来看,当日多元金融板块主力资金净流出2.11亿元,游资资金净流出5133.42万元,散户资 金净流入2.62亿元。多元金融板块个股资金流向见下表: 证券之星消息,12月18日多元金融板块较上一交易日下跌0.6%,瑞达期货领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3876.37,上涨0.16%。深证成指报收于13053.98,下跌1.29%。多元金融板块个股涨跌见下表: 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理,由AI算法生成(网信算备310104345710301240019号),不构成投资建议。 ...
瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20251218
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-18 08:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The port shows a trend of inventory accumulation, with relatively loose supply. However, steel mills' raw material inventories are generally at medium - low levels. Near the year - end winter storage, there is a certain expectation for buying, and the firm spot prices support the futures price. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 777.50 yuan/ton, up 9.50 yuan; the position volume is 518,155 lots, up 29,159 lots. The I 1 - 5 contract spread is 19.5 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is 14,165 lots, up 5,994 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt is 1,300 lots, down 100 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract is quoted at 104.75 US dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 1.10 US dollars [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 854 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore is 849 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 758 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan. The basis of the I main contract is 72 yuan, down 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index is 107.10 US dollars/ton (previous day), up 0.90 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.09, unchanged. The estimated import cost is 869 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume is 3,592.50 million tons (weekly), up 224.00 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,928.10 million tons (weekly), up 358.90 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 16,111.47 million tons (weekly), up 120.36 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills is 8,834.20 million tons (weekly), down 150.53 million tons. The iron ore import volume is 11,054.00 million tons (monthly), down 77.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 21 days (weekly), up 4 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 37.87 million tons (weekly), up 0.07 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines is 60.07%, up 0.05%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 44.97 million tons (weekly), up 5.41 million tons. The BDI index is 2,121.00, down 83.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 24.30 US dollars/ton, down 0.70 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.365 US dollars/ton, down 0.16 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.61% (weekly), down 1.53%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.90% (weekly), down 1.16%. The domestic crude steel output is 6,987 million tons (monthly), down 213 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.51% (daily), up 0.66%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.67% (daily), up 0.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.87% (daily), down 0.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.32% (daily), up 0.50% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From December 8th to December 14th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,172.0 million tons, a decrease of 23.6 million tons compared with the previous period, showing a slight decline. The current inventory level is slightly lower than the average since the fourth quarter of this year [2] 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The iron ore port inventory in China, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills on Friday [2]
瑞达期货棉花(纱)产业日报-20251218
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-12-18 08:54
棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-12-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13960 | 35 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20045 | -40 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -143303 | 5696 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -877 | -39 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 741948 | 10681 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 22824 | 377 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 3619 | 137 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 9 | 0 | | 现货市场 | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | 15139 12760 | -5 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, 元/吨) 51 到港价:进口棉纱价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32 | 20880 21065 | 50 ...