Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-bank financial sector is "Outperform the Market" [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the securities industry is entering a new phase of mergers and acquisitions, termed "M&A 2.0," which emphasizes functional enhancement and the creation of a complementary business ecosystem rather than merely increasing capital size [3][5]. - The report highlights that recent mergers, such as the absorption of Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities by CICC, reflect a shift towards strengthening professional capabilities and expanding business lines [4][18]. - The overall improvement in the securities industry's fundamentals, including active market trading and growth in margin financing, is expected to drive both valuations and profitability for brokerages [4][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes a significant wave of mergers and restructuring in China's securities industry, driven by both policy support and market competition. The aim is to cultivate leading investment banks and enhance core competitiveness through consolidation [6][10]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, 43 listed brokerages achieved revenue of CNY 421.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.57%, and a net profit of CNY 169.29 billion, up 62.48% [6]. Mergers and Acquisitions - The merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities is highlighted as a scale-driven consolidation, significantly enhancing net capital strength and risk tolerance, while optimizing the national network layout [15][17]. - CICC's merger with Dongxing and Xinda Securities is characterized as a functional superiority-driven integration, aimed at enhancing business capabilities and expanding service offerings [18][20]. Business Structure and Performance - The report outlines a dual-driven characteristic in the securities industry, with brokerage and proprietary trading as the main revenue drivers. In the first three quarters of 2025, brokerage income reached CNY 111.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 74.64% [11]. - The revenue structure is shifting, with brokerage income accounting for 26.5%, investment income 44.4%, and other segments contributing to the overall performance [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recent mergers are likely to stimulate investment enthusiasm in the industry. It recommends focusing on leading brokerages with comprehensive performance layouts and those with high elasticity in earnings, such as Huatai Securities and CITIC Securities [22].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·非银金融 非银金融行业跟踪周报 证券行业并购稳步推进；保险业总资产突破 40 万亿 增持（维持） 相关研究 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示：1）宏观经济不及预期；2）政策趋紧抑制行业创新；3）市场 竞争加剧风险。 2025 年 11 月 23 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 罗宇康 执业证书：S0600525090002 luoyk@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 2024/11/25 2025/3/25 2025/7/23 2025/11/20 非银金融 沪深300 《中金公司拟换股合并东兴证券、信 达证券，资产规模将破万亿元》 2025-11-20 《金融科技 2026 年投资策略-- 短期 看市场活跃的持续性，中期关注金融 IT》 2025-11-17 东吴证券研究所 1 / 15 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 非银行金融子行业近期表现：最近 5 个交易日（2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic vision and outlook of Dongfang Caifu Securities Research Institute under the leadership of Meng Jie, emphasizing a technology-driven and data-empowered approach to research in the A-share market, with a focus on understanding the Chinese market dynamics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Strategic Transformation - Meng Jie highlights the transition from being a top analyst to a research institute leader, focusing on team success rather than individual achievement [2]. - The "2.0 Launch" strategy aims to adapt to the new normal of the industry, emphasizing investor returns and shifting the business model from "sell-side research" to "buy-side advisory" [2][3]. - The research institute is committed to enhancing its deep research capabilities and integrating data, traffic, and financial technology to build a differentiated competitive edge [3][5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a slow bull market pattern, with the index around 4000 points entering a consolidation phase [6]. - Key drivers for market recovery include supportive fiscal and monetary policies, sustained institutional investment, and technological advancements in the AI sector [6]. - The transition of the Chinese economy towards innovation-driven growth, particularly in sectors like new energy and high-end manufacturing, is seen as a foundation for long-term market strength [6]. Group 3: Investment Directions - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes three main investment themes: emerging industries and new tracks, disruptive upgrades in traditional industries, and the dual drive of technology empowerment and domestic demand [7]. - Emerging fields such as quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and low-altitude economy are expected to reach critical points for commercialization in the next five to ten years [7]. - Traditional industries are undergoing significant transformations towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, creating substantial market opportunities [7][8]. Group 4: Consumer Sector Insights - Traditional core assets, particularly in consumption, are entering historically low valuation zones, indicating increasing allocation value [8]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to boost domestic consumption, with policies likely to support consumer spending and enhance long-term confidence [8]. - The recovery of traditional consumption is expected to be gradual and structurally differentiated, with new consumption sectors showing stronger growth resilience [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on the expected development trends for 2026, with a consensus emerging that A-shares present structural opportunities and that the macroeconomic environment will continue to show signs of recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Major securities firms predict China's economic growth for 2026 will be in the range of 4.9% to 5.0%, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern expected [3]. - The overall judgment from economists is that the macroeconomic environment will be "stable and improving, with structural optimization" [2][3]. - Export resilience and ongoing industrial upgrades are viewed as key supports for the macroeconomy, with expectations of strong export performance in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Policy and Structural Changes - The core direction for policy in 2026 will focus on structural optimization and a balanced approach to supply and demand [3]. - There is an expectation of moderate expansion in fiscal policy, which will support the conclusion of the deleveraging cycle [2][3]. - The need to address weak domestic demand remains a critical issue for 2026, with price stability being essential for growth [4]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The investment focus for A-shares in 2026 is expected to shift from being driven by sentiment, funds, and valuation to being driven by performance verification [5]. - Key areas of interest include technology growth, external demand breakthroughs, and cyclical recovery [5][6]. - The AI revolution is entering a critical application phase, which is anticipated to support the performance of Chinese assets [6]. Group 4: Sectoral Insights - Three main structural themes for 2026 include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends particularly in AI, and the enhancement of manufacturing influence [6][7]. - The potential for Chinese companies to improve their position in the global value chain is highlighted, with a focus on upgrading traditional manufacturing and expanding global presence [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is focused on the expected development trends for 2026, with consensus emerging around structural opportunities in the A-share market and a continued recovery in the macro economy [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Innovation - The annual strategy meetings of various securities firms highlight "new" and "seizing opportunities" as high-frequency keywords, reflecting insights into new market trends and opportunities [2]. - Themes from different firms include "Embarking on a New Journey" by CITIC Securities and "Riding the New Wave" by Huatai Securities, indicating a collective focus on innovation and market dynamics [2]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - Securities firms express a consensus on a "stable and improving, structurally optimized" macroeconomic outlook for 2026, with expectations of strong export resilience and continued industrial upgrades [3][4]. - Economic growth predictions for 2026 range from 4.9% to 5.0%, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern anticipated [3]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a moderately expansionary stance, supporting the end of the deleveraging cycle [3]. Group 3: Investment Themes - The A-share market is expected to shift from being driven by "sentiment, funds, and valuation" in 2025 to "performance verification" in 2026, with a focus on technology growth, external demand, and cyclical recovery [5][6]. - Analysts emphasize that the "performance is king" narrative will dominate, with a potential for the A-share market to reach new highs due to increased allocations from both domestic and foreign investors [5][6]. - Key investment themes include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends, and the enhancement of manufacturing influence [6].

Core Viewpoint - The media industry is the only sector to receive net inflows of capital, while the overall market experiences significant outflows, particularly in the technology and materials sectors [1][2]. Capital Flow Summary - The main capital outflow from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets today amounts to 985.55 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board seeing a net outflow of 377.44 billion yuan and the CSI 300 index experiencing a net outflow of 267.85 billion yuan [1][2]. - Among the 31 primary industries, all experienced declines, with the comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment sectors dropping over 5%. Other sectors like basic chemicals, electronics, and communications fell over 4% [2]. - Only the media industry saw a net inflow of 13.26 billion yuan, while the electronic, power equipment, and computer sectors had the largest outflows, each exceeding 100 billion yuan. Other sectors such as non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, machinery, communications, and non-bank financials also faced significant outflows, each exceeding 42 billion yuan [2]. Individual Stock Performance - In individual stock performance, 37 stocks saw net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with 6 stocks receiving over 3 billion yuan. The leading stock in net inflow was the photolithography concept stock, Kaimete Gas, with 7.75 billion yuan [3]. - The photolithography concept stocks rose against the market trend, with stocks like Guofeng New Materials hitting the daily limit, and Kaimete Gas reaching its limit during trading [3]. - AI application concept stock Yidian Tianxia saw a limit increase with a net inflow of 6.54 billion yuan, with significant buying from specific trading desks [4]. Tail-End Capital Flow - At the market close, there was a net outflow of 143.68 billion yuan, with the ChiNext board experiencing a net outflow of 57.56 billion yuan and the CSI 300 index seeing a net outflow of 41.92 billion yuan [8]. - Among individual stocks, 19 stocks had net inflows exceeding 20 million yuan at the close, with the leading stock being Changxin Bochuang, which had a net inflow of 1.13 billion yuan [8]. - A total of 22 stocks had net outflows exceeding 80 million yuan, with 13 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan [9].

Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing a sustained growth trend in overall performance, with profitability steadily improving before the third quarter of 2025 [1][2] - The North American AI sector has significantly outperformed the market, leading the growth among various segments [1] Industry Performance - The total revenue of the communication industry reached 19,549 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,943 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2025, the industry revenue was 6,313 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 567 billion yuan, increasing by 12.1% year-on-year [2] Segment Analysis - Operators showed stable growth with revenue growth of 0.6% and 1.1% year-on-year, and net profit growth of 4.3% and 2.1% respectively, indicating a steady improvement in profit margins [3] - The North American AI sector exhibited remarkable growth, with revenue increasing by 71.5% and 71.1% year-on-year, and net profit soaring by 129.5% and 137.3% [3] - The domestic computing sector reported revenue growth of 22.0% and 3.2%, with net profit growth of 38.8% and 60.6%, highlighting significant performance disparities across the industry chain [3] - The Internet of Things (IoT) sector achieved revenue growth of 15.9% and 9.7%, with net profit growth of 37.5% and 26.7%, indicating steady performance [3] - The BeiDou sector saw revenue growth of 36.0% and 58.5%, with net profit growth of 74.8% and 149.9%, with some companies turning losses into profits [3] - The military communication sector faced challenges, with revenue declining by 5.7% and increasing by only 1.1%, and net profit dropping significantly by 76.9% and 51.0% [3] - The submarine cable sector reported revenue growth of 12.0% and 9.8%, with net profit remaining relatively stable [3]

Group 1: AI Industry Development Index - The "2025 AI Industry Development Index" is set to be officially released in December 2025, aiming to provide insights into the development of the AI industry in China [1][2] - The index will cover multiple dimensions including R&D, technological performance, investment, and industrial applications of AI [2] Group 2: AI Talent Development - AI talent cultivation is recognized as a strategic consensus for national competitiveness, with many countries integrating AI education into their national curriculum [3] - The 2025-2026 VEX Robotics Asia Open International Signature Competition has been announced, aimed at fostering youth interest in science and technology [4][5] Group 3: AI Product Innovations - The launch of the Hive Technology's AI audio glasses with upgraded features allows for a more intuitive interaction with AI, enhancing user experience [7][8] - The AI audio glasses support features like "full-scene recording transcription" and "cross-application AI real-time translation," which can significantly improve efficiency in various scenarios [8][9] Group 4: AI Security Challenges - The rapid development of AI brings about security challenges that extend beyond traditional network and data security, encompassing content and application security [10] - 360 Digital Security Group has introduced a new paradigm called "modeling by modeling" to address AI security risks, focusing on reliability, trustworthiness, benevolence, and controllability [11]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a significant downturn on November 21, with major indices declining, particularly the ChiNext Index which fell over 4% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) closed at 1.384 CNY, down 3.89% with a turnover rate of 9.89% and a trading volume of 2.429 billion CNY [1][2] - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 489 million CNY over the past five trading days, indicating positive investor sentiment despite the market decline [2][3] Group 2: ETF Details - As of November 20, 2025, the ChiNext 50 ETF has a total circulation scale of 25.25 billion CNY, leading among similar ETFs [2][3] - The top ten holdings of the ChiNext 50 ETF include leading companies such as CATL, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Dongfang Caifu, reflecting a focus on high-growth sectors [3] Group 3: AI Industry Insights - NVIDIA reported a quarterly revenue of 57 billion USD, a 62% year-over-year increase, and projected next quarter revenue to reach 65 billion USD, addressing concerns about AI asset price bubbles [4] - Analysts suggest that the AI industry is still in its early development stage, with significant long-term growth potential despite current high valuations [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The ChiNext 50 ETF (159949) is recommended as an efficient investment tool for those optimistic about the long-term growth of China's technology sector [5] - Investors are advised to consider dollar-cost averaging strategies to mitigate short-term volatility risks while monitoring the performance of index constituent stocks [5]

Core Points - The stock price of Dongfang Caifu has dropped by 3.2% on November 21, reaching 23.30 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 368.23 billion CNY [1] - Dongfang Caifu has experienced a continuous decline for six days, accumulating a total drop of 7.28% during this period [1] Company Overview - Dongfang Caifu Information Co., Ltd. is located at 88 Wanping South Road, Xuhui District, Shanghai, and was established on January 20, 2005, with its IPO on March 19, 2010 [1] - The company's main business segments include securities services (76.99%), financial e-commerce services (20.65%), and financial data services (2.36%) [1] Fund Holdings - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, Guolian Fund has one fund heavily invested in Dongfang Caifu, specifically the Guolian Financial Xinxuan 3-Month Holding Mixed A (013659), which holds 67,700 shares, accounting for 3.89% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has incurred a floating loss of approximately 52,100 CNY today and a total floating loss of 123,900 CNY during the six-day decline [2] Fund Manager Performance - The fund manager of Guolian Financial Xinxuan 3-Month Holding Mixed A is Xiong Jian, who has been in the position for 3 years and 314 days [3] - Under Xiong Jian's management, the fund's total asset size is 47.22 million CNY, with the best return during the tenure being 42.85% and the worst return being -32.1% [3]