Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the optical module sector, specifically recommending Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng [11]. Core Insights - The optical communication market is currently influenced by three cyclical forces: supply-demand cycle, chip structure, and performance cycle, with the chip cycle being the dominant force at this time [2][21]. - Demand for optical modules remains robust, driven by increased capital expenditures from major North American cloud providers, which are projected to exceed $380 billion by 2025 [3][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the supply chain, noting that leading companies have stronger delivery capabilities due to their scale and technological advantages [3][22]. - The report highlights a rebalancing of chip structures, where previously concentrated holdings are becoming more diversified, which is expected to create a healthier market environment [4][23]. - The performance cycle is seen as a dynamic measure of relative value among companies, with ongoing fluctuations in market expectations reflected in the valuation ratios of leading firms [5][24]. Summary by Sections Supply-Demand Cycle - The demand for optical modules is strong, with major cloud companies increasing their capital expenditures [3][22]. - Leading firms are expanding their production capacity and have better supply chain control, ensuring stable delivery amid high demand [3][22]. Chip Cycle - The market has seen a shift from consensus to overcrowding, with leading optical module companies becoming heavily weighted in institutional portfolios [4][23]. - A rebalancing of holdings is occurring, which, while causing short-term price pressure, is setting the stage for a healthier market [4][23]. Performance Cycle - The relative valuation between companies, such as the market cap ratio of Xinyi Sheng to Zhongji Xuchuang, provides insights into market expectations and company performance [5][24]. - The report suggests that as long as the underlying demand and technological advancements remain strong, fluctuations among leading companies will present structural investment opportunities [8][28]. Recommendations - The report continues to recommend investments in the optical module sector, particularly in companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, as well as other related firms in the computing and cooling sectors [9][14].

[Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2026 年 1 月 25 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 公募基金四季报是否会影响我们对 市场和板块的判断？ ——公募基金 25 年 Q4 配置分析 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 | | SFC CE No. BVH021 | | 010-59136616 | | liuchenming@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 郑恺 | | SAC 执证号：S0260515090004 | | SFC CE No. BUU989 | | 021-38003559 | | zhengkai@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 杨清源 | | SAC 执证号：S0260525080001 | | yangqingyuan@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，杨清源并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | | 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [联系人： Table_Contac毕露露 ts] 1860044269 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that foreign public funds are optimistic about the Chinese stock market, particularly in the technology sector, which is expected to undergo a historical value reassessment by 2026, potentially generating excess returns [1][7][10] - Since 2025, the A-share market has shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing around 4100 points, and several foreign public fund products have reported significant performance, with net value increases exceeding 50% for multiple funds [3][8] - Foreign public funds have focused their investments on high-quality technology assets, with notable holdings in leading Chinese tech companies such as Tencent, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Han's Laser [3][4][5] Group 2 - Fund managers from various foreign public funds have expressed a commitment to maintaining a high equity position, focusing on growth-oriented investment opportunities in sectors like high-end manufacturing, electric vehicles, and AI technology [5][6] - The outlook for the A-share market in 2026 is positive, with fund managers highlighting the significant allocation value of Chinese stocks compared to RMB bonds, suggesting a continued overweight in equities [8][10] - There is a consensus among fund managers that high-quality technology assets are likely to continue yielding excess returns, with a focus on sectors benefiting from innovation and structural changes in the economy [9][10]

Group 1 - In Q4 2025, active equity funds significantly reduced their holdings in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, while increasing allocations in cyclical and financial value stocks, with consensus on increasing positions in non-ferrous metals and non-bank financials [5][8] - The allocation to technology showed internal differentiation, with AI hardware infrastructure being favored, while TMT, pharmaceuticals, and military industries were reduced [5][8] - The overall market capitalization of active equity funds decreased by 195.65 billion to 3.38 trillion, with stock positions dropping to 84.2%, indicating a shift towards lower valuation and improving cyclical and financial sectors [5][8] Group 2 - The industry allocation saw a comprehensive increase in cyclical financials, with significant increases in non-ferrous metals, communications, non-bank financials, machinery, and basic chemicals, while media, electronics, new energy, pharmaceuticals, and military industries were reduced [5][28] - The allocation to communication equipment was notably increased, driven by AI infrastructure investments, while most technology sectors experienced significant reductions [5][28] - In the consumer sector, essential consumption was reduced, particularly in liquor and feed, while leisure food saw a notable increase [5][28] Group 3 - In the Hong Kong market, active funds significantly reduced their allocations, with a market capitalization decrease of 86 billion to 295.2 billion, and the allocation ratio dropping to 15.6% [5][28] - The funds increased their positions in cyclical and financial sectors, such as insurance, oil, airlines, and non-ferrous metals, while reducing positions in internet and semiconductor leaders [5][28] - The issuance of funds is expected to reach an inflection point, supporting further market growth, with a high percentage of funds achieving positive returns over various time frames [5][28]

AI正式走到了投资舞台的中央。 截至2025年底，光模块龙头中际旭创首次"登顶"，成为公募基金的头号重仓股。另一家光模块龙头新易盛紧随其后，位居公募基金第二大重仓 股。 在公募基金前五十大重仓股名单中，还包括工业富联、寒武纪、沪电股份、东山精密、胜宏科技、深南电路、生益科技、兆易创新等AI相关 概念股。与之相对应的是，不少传统行业明星股，正在持续淡出公募重仓股名单。此前多年霸屏公募"最爱"的贵州茅台，险些跌出公募持仓前 十名。 一粒沙里看世界。基金重仓股的此消彼长，折射了社会产业变迁。对于基金经理来说，时代在快速发展，与时俱进方有未来。在技术的快速迭 代中，投资不再仅仅是关于"价值"或"成长"的标签选择，而是关于如何在一个加速变化的世界里，识别出那些能够定义未来、创造未来的企业 和生态。 一份颠覆性榜单 最新披露的公募基金季报显示，一大批"AI新贵"成为基金经理的"座上宾"。 天相投顾数据显示，截至2025年底，公募基金前五十大重仓股，主要分布在信息技术、消费品及服务、投资品等行业。其中，属于信息技术行 业的高达18只。 | 序号 | | 基金持有总市值 占流通股比例 | | 持有该股的 | | --- | ...

Core Insights - The firewall industry in China is a critical component of the network security system, serving as the first line of defense for enterprises and individuals. The industry is characterized by a diverse range of listed companies, primarily concentrated in the upstream and midstream segments of the supply chain [1][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Major companies in the firewall industry include Sangfor (300454.SZ), Tianrongxin (002212.SZ), Hillstone Networks (688030.SH), Deepin Technology (300768.SZ), Ruijie Networks (301165.SZ), Venustech (002439.SZ), Qihoo 360 (688561.SH), and NSFOCUS (300369.SZ) [1]. - The highest revenue in the firewall industry for 2024 is projected to be from Lenovo, with revenue reaching 114.77 billion yuan, followed closely by Inspur with the same revenue figure [4]. - The registered capital is highest for NSFOCUS, while Tianrongxin is the oldest company in the industry. Ruijie Networks has the most bidding information, totaling 7,141 entries [8]. Group 2: Revenue and Profitability - In terms of revenue from firewall-related business, Sangfor is expected to generate 3.629 billion yuan in 2024, ranking second in the domestic market for unified threat management. Qihoo 360 follows with an expected revenue of 2.653 billion yuan [9]. - The gross profit margin for representative companies in the firewall industry is projected to be around 60% in 2024, with Sangfor achieving the highest margin at 79.31% and Hillstone Networks at 71.97% [11]. Group 3: Business Layout - The firewall business layout of listed companies shows a combination of regional focus and nationwide outreach, with technological innovation and scenario deepening being key characteristics. Sangfor focuses on South China, covering over 30 countries and regions, while Qihoo 360 is centered in Beijing, targeting government and state-owned enterprises [13][15]. - Companies like Tianrongxin and Venustech are also focusing on specific sectors such as industrial internet and government services, respectively, to enhance their market presence [15]. Group 4: Business Planning - Future business plans for firewall companies emphasize technological iteration and scenario deepening. Sangfor aims to integrate network security with cloud computing and transition to a subscription model by 2026 [17]. - Qihoo 360 plans to allocate 25% of its R&D budget to encryption firewall research, while Tianrongxin is focusing on smart solutions for industrial firewalls [17].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis, as it primarily focuses on the analysis of active equity funds' holdings, preferences, and structural changes in Q4 2025[3][6][7] - The report provides detailed insights into the number, scale, and allocation preferences of active equity funds, including their industry and sectoral adjustments, but does not include any specific quantitative models or factor construction methodologies[3][6][7] - The analysis highlights the changes in fund holdings and preferences, such as increased allocation to cyclical and financial sectors and reduced allocation to technology and healthcare, but no quantitative models or factors are discussed[44][48][49]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the silicon photonics industry, particularly the demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules, which is experiencing a surge due to a shortage of upstream EML chips and an increase in silicon photonics module penetration rates [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Silicon Photonics Technology**: By 2024, silicon photonics technology is expected to become the mainstream solution for high-speed optical modules. The penetration rate of silicon photonics modules is projected to significantly increase by 2025, with a transition to the 1.6T high-speed era anticipated by 2026. Current demand for 800G and 1.6T optical modules is strong, leading to a 20% shortage of upstream EML chips, while silicon chips and CW chips remain relatively abundant [2]. - **Investment Opportunities in Silicon Photonics**: The silicon photonics industry can be divided into two main areas: silicon photonic devices, modules, and engines, and supporting process equipment and software manufacturers. Leading companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng are well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming industry evolution. Additionally, companies like Robert Technologies and JEPET are highlighted for their coupling and testing equipment, respectively. Other suppliers of CW lasers and passive devices, such as Yuanjie Technology, Shijia Technology, and Zhishang Technology, are also worth monitoring [3]. - **TSMC's Performance and Impact**: TSMC reported a revenue of $33.7 billion for Q4 2025, exceeding expectations and showing a year-over-year growth of 1.9%. The gross margin increased by 2.8 percentage points to 62.3%. TSMC plans to significantly increase its capital expenditure budget for 2026 to between $52 billion and $56 billion, up from $40.9 billion in 2025. This indicates strong global demand for AI chips, which supports the demand for 800G and 1.6T high-speed modules and benefits related industries such as liquid cooling [4][5]. - **NVIDIA's CES Announcements**: At CES, NVIDIA introduced the VeloRoulette cabinet and CPO switch, featuring an Ethernet CPU switch with a dual ASIC design that supports 128 800G ports, providing a total bandwidth of 102.4T. This development indicates active progress in CPO solutions and is beneficial for the entire silicon photonics industry, accelerating the growth of CPO modules and liquid cooling demand [6]. - **Google Chain Development**: The Google chain encompasses five key areas: 1.6T optical modules represented by Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Yuanjie Technology; the liquid cooling market led by Invec; server power upgrades benefiting Oulu Tong; OCS participation from companies like Tengjing Technology and Jujing Technology; and the MPO connector market led by Changfei Fiber amid rising prices. The Google ecosystem is entering a positive cycle, continuously driving AI computing demand, with all parties ensuring TPU capacity to meet the growing market needs [7]. Additional Important Insights - The overall trend indicates a robust growth trajectory for the silicon photonics industry, driven by advancements in technology and increasing demand for high-speed data transmission solutions. The interplay between major players like TSMC, NVIDIA, and Google is crucial for shaping the future landscape of this sector [1][6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The latest statistics indicate a significant shift in the top holdings of actively managed equity funds, with Zhongji Xuchuang replacing CATL as the largest holding, reflecting changing market dynamics and investment strategies [2][3]. Group 1: Changes in Top Holdings - As of the end of Q4 2025, the top ten holdings of actively managed equity funds are: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Semiconductor, CATL, Tencent Holdings, Zijin Mining, Alibaba-W, Cambrian Biologics-U, Luxshare Precision, Kweichow Moutai, and Dongshan Precision [3]. - The total market value of these top ten stocks held by actively managed equity funds is 76.8 billion, 63.8 billion, 63 billion, 57.4 billion, 36.8 billion, 31 billion, 29.1 billion, 28 billion, 25.8 billion, and 24.4 billion respectively [3]. - Notable changes from Q3 2025 include Zhongji Xuchuang rising from fourth to first, Xinyi Semiconductor from third to second, and Zijin Mining from eighth to fifth, while CATL and Tencent Holdings dropped to third and fourth respectively [3][6]. Group 2: Sector Allocation Adjustments - In Q4 2025, actively managed equity funds increased their allocations in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communication, non-bank financials, chemicals, and machinery, while reducing exposure to electronics, pharmaceuticals, media, computers, and power equipment [2][8]. - The overall stock position of actively managed equity funds decreased to 84.4%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a cautious approach amidst market volatility [7]. - The increase in allocation to sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals is attributed to supply constraints and recovering demand from new energy and AI applications, while the reduction in electronics and pharmaceuticals is linked to high valuations and weak short-term outlooks [8][9]. Group 3: Market Trends and Insights - The changes in top holdings and sector allocations reflect a shift in market focus towards technology, particularly in the communication sector, driven by the rapid development of the digital economy and AI [4][5]. - The strategic importance of communication infrastructure and chip manufacturing is highlighted, with ongoing policy support for industry upgrades creating new growth opportunities [5]. - The overall market sentiment is characterized by a balance between short-term gains and long-term strategic positioning, influenced by industry prospects and policy environments [9].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights significant net inflows and outflows of capital in specific stocks, indicating investor interest and market trends [1] Group 2 - Longi Green Energy leads with a net inflow of 2.654 billion, the highest among stocks [1] - Aerospace Electronics follows with a net inflow of 2.423 billion, ranking second [1] - Other notable stocks with high net inflows include Goldwind Technology, Lens Technology, and China Satellite [1] Group 3 - On the outflow side, TBEA shows the largest net outflow of 3.335 billion [1] - NewEase and Zhongji Xuchuang have net outflows of 2.913 billion and 2.625 billion, ranking second and third respectively [1]