Group 1 - Hong Kong lithium battery stocks experienced significant gains, with Zhong Chuang Innovation rising approximately 9%, Ganfeng Lithium up nearly 7%, and Tianqi Lithium increasing over 5% [1][2] - The latest price movements for key stocks include Zhong Chuang Innovation at 29.560 with an increase of 8.68%, Ganfeng Lithium at 63.150 with a rise of 6.76%, and BYD at 99.500 with a gain of 3.97% [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced adjustments to the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and battery products, stating that the export tax rebate rate for battery products will be phased down and ultimately eliminated by 2027 [2] Group 2 - CITIC Futures noted that market trading quickly reacted to the export logic, with policy changes strengthening expectations for short-term demand and increased downstream production [3] - The price of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit for two consecutive days, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassing 170,000 yuan per ton, reaching a new high since October 2023 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant rise in Hong Kong lithium battery stocks following the announcement of changes to export tax policies for photovoltaic and battery products by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration of China [1] - The export tax rebate for battery products will be phased down starting from April 2026, with the rate decreasing from 9% to 6%, and the complete cancellation of the rebate set for 2027 [1] - Market reactions indicate a strong expectation for short-term demand acceleration and increased downstream production, leading to a surge in lithium carbonate futures prices, which hit a new high of over 170,000 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances include: - Zhongchuang Innovation rising approximately 8.68% to 29.560 yuan - Ganfeng Lithium increasing nearly 6.76% to 63.150 yuan - Hongqiao Group up about 5.75% to 0.460 yuan - Tianqi Lithium gaining over 4.81% to 57.700 yuan - BYD shares rising by 3.97% to 99.500 yuan - Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) increasing by 1.94% to 494.600 yuan [2]

Group 1 - Chongqing Runkai New Energy Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 4.31 million yuan [1] - The company's business scope includes power generation, power transmission, emerging energy technology research and development, and solar power technology services [1] - Runkai New Energy is wholly owned by Times Green Energy Co., Ltd., which is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, indicating a favorable investment rating for the sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of rising prices for memory, copper, aluminum, and key components, which are expected to lead to an increase in consumer vehicle prices. It suggests focusing on supply chain companies with good supply-demand dynamics and price transmission capabilities, as well as mid-to-high-end vehicle manufacturers with model cycles [2]. - The report notes that the average daily retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 123,000 units in the last week of December, a year-on-year increase of 17% [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the recently implemented green consumption policies, which aim to support the purchase of new energy vehicles and enhance the automotive industry's supply chain [11][12]. Market Updates - The automotive industry recorded a total transaction value of 638.35 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 11.27%. The automotive industry index rose by 2.53% during the week [2][13]. - The report indicates that the automotive industry index's growth was lower than that of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 2.79% [13]. - The report lists significant stock movements, with 201 stocks rising and 68 falling, highlighting the top gainers and losers in the automotive sector [19]. Key Events - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the 403rd batch of new vehicle approvals, featuring several notable models from various manufacturers [3][4]. - The report discusses the rising cost pressures in the automotive industry due to increasing memory prices, which are becoming a significant factor affecting profitability [6][8]. - The report mentions a strategic cooperation agreement between CATL and NIO, focusing on battery technology and market collaboration [36]. Financial Metrics - The automotive sector's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 30.20, ranking 18th among all primary industries, indicating a moderate valuation compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index's 14.41 [16][18].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the HuShen 300 ESG ETF managed by Southern Fund Management, which experienced a decline of 4.80% as of the midday close on January 13, with a trading volume of 637,100 yuan [1] - The top holdings of the ETF include companies such as CATL, Kweichow Moutai, and BYD, with varying performance; for instance, CATL rose by 0.24%, while Kweichow Moutai fell by 0.30% [1] - Since its inception on April 13, 2023, the ETF has achieved a return of 21.37%, with a monthly return of 4.63% [1] Group 2 - The ETF's performance benchmark is the HuShen 300 ESG Index return rate, indicating its focus on sustainable investment [1] - The fund manager is Southern Fund Management Co., Ltd., and the fund manager is Li Jialiang [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Hong Kong lithium battery stocks have significantly surged, driven by a new export tax policy announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration [1] - The export tax rate for battery products will be phased down starting in April 2026, decreasing from 9% to 6%, and will be completely eliminated by 2027 [1] - Market reactions indicate a strong expectation for short-term demand increase and downstream production ramp-up, despite unchanged long-term demand logic for new energy and energy storage [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances include: - China Innovation Aviation up approximately 9% to 29.560 [2] - Ganfeng Lithium up nearly 7% to 63.150 [2] - Hongqiao Group up nearly 6% to 0.460 [2] - Tianqi Lithium up over 5% to 57.700 [2] - BYD Company up 3.97% to 99.500 [2] - Contemporary Amperex Technology up 1.94% to 494.600 [2] - Lithium carbonate futures have hit the daily limit for two consecutive days, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassing 170,000 yuan per ton, marking a new high since October 2023 [1]

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate prices have surged to over 140,000 yuan per ton in early 2026, marking a 19% increase from the end of 2025 and an 83% rise compared to the same date in 2025 [1] - The rapid price increase is attributed to a combination of international expectations, policy disruptions, and industry behaviors, with geopolitical tensions raising concerns about supply chain stability [1] - Brazil's recent decision to freeze new mining rights auctions has heightened market fears regarding lithium resource supply tightening, further influencing price expectations [1] Group 2 - Domestic policies and capacity factors are tightening supply, with the State Council's action plan aimed at promoting sustainable development potentially increasing environmental costs for lithium mining [2] - Short-term supply of lithium is significantly constrained, with production delays from key mines leading to a monthly supply gap of 5,000 to 8,000 tons [2] - The overall inventory of lithium ore in domestic main ports has slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, supporting upward price movement despite some production increases in lithium spodumene and recycling [2] Group 3 - The demand for lithium carbonate remains strong due to the booming electric vehicle market, with battery manufacturers actively procuring lithium to meet production needs [3] - Some downstream companies have announced production line maintenance, which may impact lithium carbonate prices to varying degrees [3] - The short-term fundamentals for lithium carbonate are expected to support prices, with a strong upward trend likely to continue [3]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium battery concept stocks have collectively rebounded, driven by changes in export tax policies for photovoltaic and battery products, which are expected to influence short-term demand and production schedules [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Ganfeng Lithium (002460)(01772) increased by 7.1%, reaching 63.35 HKD - CATL (300750)(03750) rose by 1.28%, trading at 491.4 HKD - Tianqi Lithium (002466)(09696) saw a 5.36% increase, priced at 58 HKD - Zhongxin Innovation (03931) climbed by 6.4%, now at 28.94 HKD [1] Group 2: Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a phased reduction of export tax rates for battery products starting in 2026, ultimately leading to the cancellation of these rates [1] - CITIC Futures noted that the market reacted quickly to the "export rush" logic due to the policy change [1] Group 3: Market Implications - The adjustment in export tax rates is expected to drive a surge in battery exports before 2026, increasing the demand for lithium ore and lithium hexafluorophosphate, thus tightening supply [1] - Huatai Securities believes that the reduction in export tax rates will lead to the elimination of outdated domestic production capacity in the long term, optimizing the battery industry landscape and benefiting companies with overseas production capacity [1]

东吴证券近日发布电力设备行业跟踪周报：电气设备10595上涨5.02%，表现强于大盘。(本周，1月5 日-1月9日，下同)，风电涨22.06%，发电设备涨18.04%，核电涨10.25%，锂电池涨5.05%，电气设备涨 5.02%，新能源汽车涨2.77%，光伏涨2.09%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 电气设备10595上涨5.02%，表现强于大盘。(本周，1月5日-1月9日，下同)，风电涨22.06%，发电设备 涨18.04%，核电涨10.25%，锂电池涨5.05%，电气设备涨5.02%，新能源汽车涨2.77%，光伏涨2.09%。 涨幅前五为金风科技（002202）、泰胜风能（300129）、弘讯科技（603015）、和顺电气（300141）、 天龙光电；跌幅前五为*ST中利、雅化集团（002497）、亿晶光电（600537）、新时达（002527）、佛 塑科技（000973）。 投资建议：宁德时代(动力&储能电池全球龙头、增长确定估值低)、阳光电源（300274）(逆变器全球龙 头、海外大储集成优质龙头、切入AIDC)、思源电气（002028）(电力设备国内出海双龙头、订单和盈 利超预期)、三花智控（ ...

Summary of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) - **Industry**: Energy & Chemicals, specifically focusing on electric vehicle (EV) batteries and energy storage systems (ESS) Key Points Market Divergence - There is a significant disconnect in market expectations regarding EV demand. Auto analysts predict weak demand for EVs, suggesting slower battery volume growth, while material analysts anticipate strong demand driven by the ESS market, which supports elevated prices for battery raw materials [1][2] - This divergence has negatively impacted CATL's stock positioning, making it one of the least preferred stocks due to concerns over cost pass-through and margin compression [2] Rationality of Market Views - The current market view is considered irrational. If demand were genuinely weak, CATL would reduce orders, leading to a decline in material prices. Conversely, if CATL cannot pass on cost inflation, it would also reduce orders, resulting in a correction in material prices [3] - It is expected that market expectations will converge as fundamentals normalize, with CATL's premium exposure and pricing power allowing it to outperform peers once market sentiment realigns [3][11] Scenario Analysis - **Scenario 1**: If EV and battery demand is as weak as suggested, CATL would cut orders, leading to a decline in material demand and a subsequent drop in battery material prices. This scenario indicates that current material price strength is unsustainable [4] - **Scenario 2**: If CATL cannot pass through rising material costs, it would likely reduce procurement volumes to protect margins, triggering a secondary correction in material prices due to oversupply from upstream suppliers [5] - Marginal-cost battery producers, particularly tier-2 companies, would be disproportionately affected, potentially leading to market exits and industry consolidation [6] Future Outlook - CATL has a proven track record of passing through cost increases during previous material inflation cycles, reinforcing confidence in its ability to protect margins despite near-term volatility [11] - The robustness of the e-truck and ESS markets is expected to drive earnings growth in 2026 and 2027, alongside CATL's strong position in the premium EV market [11] Valuation and Risks - The valuation methodology used is based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 17x for 2026E EBITDA, implying a P/E of 25x for 2026E and a PEG of 1x, based on a 25% five-year earnings CAGR [12][13] - **Upside Risks**: Faster-than-expected EV penetration, lower geopolitical risks, better-than-expected margins, and higher market share gains [16] - **Downside Risks**: Weaker EV penetration, potential threats from other battery makers, and geopolitical risks leading to supply chain decoupling [16][17] Financial Metrics - **Current Price**: Rmb361.68 - **Price Target**: Rmb490.00 (35% upside) - **Market Cap**: Rmb1,645,774 million - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected to grow from Rmb362,013 million in 2024 to Rmb612,448 million in 2027 [9] Conclusion - The analysis indicates that while CATL faces challenges due to market divergence in demand expectations, its strategic positioning and historical resilience in passing through costs suggest potential for future growth and outperformance in the battery sector.