中金公司研报指出，宁德时代是全球锂电池龙头，国际化布局开启新篇章。认为海外新能源汽车及储能 市场整体增长潜力大，欧美等地区推行本土化政策，加之地缘政治风险加剧，中国企业海外产能布局势 在必行。宁德时代全球化布局走在行业前端，预计其海外产能有望于2025 至2027 年间逐步释放，支撑 国际业务加速扩张。同时，新兴应用场景不断涌现，推动锂电需求持续增长。公司竞争优势稳固，盈利 能力卓越，技术引领行业。公司是高分红、高ROE 的稀缺标的，财务管理审慎，盈利安全垫扎实。首 次覆盖H股给予"跑赢行业"评级，港股目标价580.0港元，对应26年26.5x P/E，有14.9%上行空间。同 时，维持A股"跑赢行业"评级和445元目标价不变，A股目前交易于26年19.4xP/E，目标价对应26年23.1x P/E，有19.0%上行空间。 ...

投资建议 我们首次覆盖宁德时代港股，给予"跑赢行业"评级，H 股目标价580.00 港元，对应2026 年预期市盈率 26.5 倍。 理由 我们预计后续销售服务费及销售返现计提的逐步冲回有望增厚利润。公司注重股东回报，23 年以来持 续保持较高分红率水平。 我们与市场的最大不同？市场担心中长期市场份额及盈利稳定性，但我们认为公司国际化业务及产能规 模扩张，中长期市场份额有望稳固；同时，公司凭借产业链较强议价能力、产品及客户结构优化、以及 新产品持续迭代的溢价，盈利能力有望稳中有升。 潜在催化剂：下游新能源车/储能需求超预期；公司业绩超预期。 盈利预测与估值 我们预计公司港股25-26 年EPS 分别为15.27 元和19.74 元，24-26 年CAGR 为31.6%。港股目前交易于26 年23.1x P/E。首次覆盖H 股给予跑赢行业评级，港股目标价580.0 港元，对应26 年26.5x P/E，有14.9% 上行空间。同时，我们维持A 股跑赢行业评级和445 元目标价不变，A 股目前交易于26 年19.4xP/E，目 标价对应26 年23.1x P/E，有19.0%上行空间。 风险 下游需求不及预期，原 ...

1月9日下午，宁德时代A股成交额达100亿元，现跌0.59%。 1月9日下午，宁德时代A股成交额达100亿元，现跌0.59%。 ...

宁德时代A股成交额达100亿元，现跌0.59%。 ...

行业评级：看好（维持） 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 电力设备 2026年1月9日 独储迎来商业化关键节点 规模化发展β或已现 --储能2026年投资策略 证券分析师 姓名：查浩 资格编号：S1350524060004 邮箱：zhahao@huayuanstock.com 姓名：刘晓宁 资格编号：S1350523120003 邮箱：liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 姓名：戴映炘 资格编号：S1350524080002 邮箱：daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 联系人 姓名：豆鹏超 邮箱：doupengchao@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 主要内容 | 1. | 需求：新能源渗透率走高 | 调节资源重要性持续提升 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2. | 国内：现货+容量机制加速完善 | 价值驱动时代或已来 | | 3. | 海外：市场机制愈发完善 | 增量景气市场或继续增加 | | 4. | 产业链：优选格局较优环节 | 重视企业技术升级与转型α机遇 | | 5. | 风险提示 | | 1.1 双碳目标 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the financial and operational challenges faced by second-tier battery manufacturers in the Chinese electric vehicle market, particularly focusing on the lawsuit involving XINWANDA and its implications for the industry [6][7][29]. Group 1: Lawsuit and Financial Impact - XINWANDA announced a lawsuit against it by Geely's subsidiary, claiming damages of 2.314 billion yuan due to alleged quality issues with battery cells supplied to its vehicles, which has led to a significant drop in XINWANDA's stock price and market value [6][7]. - The lawsuit amount is equivalent to XINWANDA's net profit over the past two years, raising concerns about its financial health and the impact on its planned "A+H" listing [6][9]. - The lawsuit highlights the broader financial struggles of second-tier battery manufacturers, who are increasingly facing profitability issues despite rising revenues [9][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance of Battery Manufacturers - In the first three quarters of 2025, XINWANDA reported revenues of 43.53 billion yuan, with a net profit of only 1.41 billion yuan, indicating a challenging profit landscape [10]. - Other second-tier players like EVE Energy and Guoxuan High-Tech also show similar trends, with rising revenues but declining or minimal profits, reflecting a common issue of "increasing sales but decreasing profits" [10][11]. - The financial difficulties stem from high operational costs and low bargaining power against larger competitors like CATL and BYD, which dominate the market [11][12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The Chinese battery market is characterized by a "two giants and many strong players" structure, with CATL and BYD controlling over 65% of the market share, leaving second-tier manufacturers to compete for a shrinking portion [22][25]. - The profitability gap is stark, with CATL earning significantly more per watt-hour compared to second-tier manufacturers, which struggle to maintain profitability [22][25]. - The competitive pressure forces second-tier manufacturers to engage in price wars, further eroding their margins and financial stability [13][20]. Group 4: Customer Relationships and Dependency - Second-tier manufacturers often rely heavily on a few major clients, which can lead to a loss of bargaining power and increased vulnerability to market fluctuations [17][18]. - The strategy of binding to large clients can backfire, as it exposes these manufacturers to risks associated with client demands and market changes [17][20]. - The trend of automakers increasingly developing their own battery technologies poses a significant threat to second-tier manufacturers, as it reduces their market share and bargaining power [20][29]. Group 5: Future Strategies and Survival - To survive, second-tier manufacturers may need to focus on niche technologies, expand into international markets, or seek strategic partnerships to stabilize their operations [27][28]. - The article suggests that only a few second-tier players with unique advantages or cost control capabilities will survive in the increasingly competitive landscape [28][29].

国家知识产权局信息显示，宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司、宁德时代润智软件科技有限公司取得一 项名为"电池单体、电池、用电设备、电池制造设备及方法"的专利，授权公告号CN119890473B，申请 日期为2025年3月。 天眼查资料显示，宁德时代新能源科技股份有限公司，成立于2011年，位于宁德市，是一家以从事电气 机械和器材制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本440339.4911万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，宁德时 代新能源科技股份有限公司共对外投资了143家企业，参与招投标项目582次，财产线索方面有商标信息 663条，专利信息5000条，此外企业还拥有行政许可1011个。 宁德时代润智软件科技有限公司，成立于2021年，位于宁德市，是一家以从事软件和信息技术服务业为 主的企业。企业注册资本320000万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，宁德时代润智软件科技有限公司参 与招投标项目2次，专利信息674条，此外企业还拥有行政许可5个。 来源：市场资讯 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 ...

Group 1 - The era of "large capacity" lithium batteries is emerging, with the global energy storage lithium battery market evolving from 280Ah to capacities above 500Ah between 2021 and 2025, making 280Ah and above products the market mainstream [2] - In 2023, the demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvement in energy storage is highlighted, with the 280Ah cell leading the market due to its size, energy density (approximately 395Wh/L), and cycle life (approximately 8000 cycles) [2] - By 2025, large capacity cells will dominate the market, shifting the focus from "whether to adopt large cells" to "which capacity specification to adopt," with 314Ah cells expected to replace 280Ah as the most prevalent specification [3] Group 2 - According to data from Qidian Research Institute (SPIR), the shipment volume of large capacity (280Ah+) energy storage lithium batteries is projected to reach 509.6GWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 109.3% [4] - The top 10 companies in terms of shipment volume for large capacity (280Ah+) energy storage lithium batteries in 2025 include CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Haicheng Energy Storage, Chuangneng New Energy, Zhongchuang Innovation, BYD, Ruipu Lanjun, Penghui Energy, Ganfeng Lithium, and Rongjie Energy [6]

Core Insights - The automotive industry is entering a deep transformation phase towards electrification and intelligence, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeding 50% by 2025, marking a shift from early cultivation to large-scale commercialization and value realization [2] - A significant IPO wave is expected in the automotive sector, with over 100 companies projected to go public in the A-share market in 2025, raising more than 110 billion yuan, with approximately 30% of these companies belonging to the automotive supply chain [2] IPO Highlights - Major IPO events in 2025 include the listings of CATL, Chery Automobile, and Seres, which are expected to enhance China's automotive industry's global competitiveness [3] - CATL's IPO on May 20, 2025, raised approximately 35.3 billion HKD, marking the largest IPO in Hong Kong in nearly four years, with 90% of the funds allocated for projects in Hungary to support local supply strategies [3] - Chery Automobile successfully listed on September 25, 2025, raising about 9.145 billion HKD, with 35% of the funds dedicated to passenger vehicle R&D and 25% for next-generation automotive technologies [4] - Seres achieved the largest IPO for a car company in 2025, raising 14.016 billion HKD on November 5, with 70% of the funds earmarked for R&D in new energy vehicle technologies [4][5] Market Trends - The IPOs of companies in the intelligent driving and laser radar sectors, such as Pony.ai and WeRide, reflect the acceleration of commercialization in these fields, with significant capital inflow supporting technological advancements [6] - The listing of leading laser radar companies, including Hesai Technology, indicates a growing focus on core components that facilitate the large-scale implementation of intelligent driving [7] - The overall trend in 2025 shows a surge in IPOs for automotive-related component companies, driven by the increasing demand for vehicle electronics as the industry shifts from product competition to ecosystem competition [8]

Group 1 - The energy sector is experiencing a rise, with the China Securities New Energy Index increasing by 1.30% as of January 9, 2026, and key stocks such as Mingyang Smart Energy, Goldwind Technology, and Xiamen Tungsten rising by 10.03%, 9.99%, and 9.86% respectively [1] - The globalization and acceleration of intelligence in the new energy vehicle industry is expected to lead to a total export volume of 3.03 million units in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 34% and an increase in penetration rate to 45% [1] - AI technology is reshaping the in-car experience, becoming a key differentiator in the market, while advancements in smart driving technology and high-performance chips are accelerating the deployment of new architectures [1] - The demand for upgrading and replacing vehicles is driving consumption upgrades, with high-end vehicle markets outperforming economy models, and domestic brands showing significant potential for market share growth [1] - Despite intensified competition leading to profit pressure, the increase in exports, economies of scale, and local production capacity are expected to enhance the overseas profitability of automotive companies [1] Group 2 - The construction of a national unified electricity market is accelerating, with expected grid investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan period to exceed 4 trillion yuan, a significant increase from 2.8 trillion yuan during the 13th Five-Year Plan [2] - The main grid construction will support the interconnection of the national grid, which is a crucial foundation for building a unified national electricity market and will remain a key focus area [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities New Energy Index include CATL, Sungrow Power, TBEA, LONGi Green Energy, Huayou Cobalt, EVE Energy, China National Nuclear Power, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianci Materials, and Three Gorges Energy, collectively accounting for 43.23% of the index [2]