Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised its LME copper price forecasts for 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month periods to $10,725, $10,640, and $10,610 per ton respectively, up from previous estimates of $10,400, $10,425, and $10,600 per ton [1] Price Forecasts - The new 3-month copper price forecast is set at $10,725 per ton, an increase from the previous forecast of $10,400 per ton [1] - The 6-month copper price forecast has been adjusted to $10,640 per ton, up from $10,425 per ton [1] - The 12-month copper price forecast remains slightly adjusted to $10,610 per ton, compared to the earlier estimate of $10,600 per ton [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 first-half average price forecast for LME copper to $10,710 per ton, up from a previous forecast of $10,415 per ton [1] - The firm also expects LME aluminum prices to decline to $2,350 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2026 [1]

Group 1: Bullish Factors - The bullish sentiment for the U.S. stock market in 2026 is primarily driven by the AI boom and significant stimulus measures, with the "Tech Seven" expected to contribute approximately $600 billion in capital expenditures to the U.S. economy [1] - Additional supportive factors for the bullish outlook include the end of quantitative tightening (QT), ongoing fiscal deficits, $1.2 trillion in stock buyback authorizations for 2026, retail investors' continued "buying the dip" behavior, and potential regulatory relaxations in the banking sector [2] Group 2: Bearish Risks - Concerns are growing regarding high stock valuations, which leave little room for error, and the market's increasing dependence on the AI theme, leading to one of the narrowest market breadths in the past two decades [1][3] - The emergence of a "K-shaped economy" is highlighted, where economic recovery is uneven, with financial stress among certain consumer groups and rising default rates among low-income households [3] - The phenomenon of "AI circularity" indicates that the prosperity in the AI sector is increasingly financed through leverage, raising concerns about sustainability [3] Group 3: Market Psychology - A unique risk identified is the lack of "muscle memory" among traders, as the unprecedented bull market over the past 15 years has led many to only experience rising markets, fostering a belief in perpetual support and the effectiveness of "buying the dip" strategies [4] - The potential for a significant market adjustment could favor more experienced investors who have previously navigated bear market cycles [4]

Group 1 - China's self-developed reusable launch vehicle Zhuque-3 successfully completed its maiden flight, marking a new milestone in the country's commercial space industry, with predictions that the industry could reach a scale of 7-10 trillion yuan by 2030 [2] - The U.S. ADP employment report for November showed a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs, the largest drop in two and a half years, leading to increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] Group 2 - The Chinese government is promoting new urbanization as a key driver for expanding domestic demand and upgrading industries, emphasizing the need for urban renewal and addressing the urban-rural dual structure [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce reported that the trade-in program for consumer goods has generated over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales, benefiting over 360 million people [3] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.78%, while the coal sector saw gains [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.28%, with significant net buying from southbound funds, particularly in Alibaba [5] Group 4 - New active equity funds have shown signs of building positions, with over 80% of newly established funds experiencing net value fluctuations, while the consensus is to focus on AI applications for future allocations [6] - Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating on the Chinese stock market to "overweight," citing a higher risk of significant gains compared to losses [6] Group 5 - The Chinese government has initiated a parenting subsidy program for families with children under three years old, with over 30 million applications submitted and approved [4] - Cambodia will implement a visa-free policy for Chinese citizens from June to October 2026, allowing for multiple entries [4] Group 6 - The cultural and tourism sector in China is set to integrate with the civil aviation industry through a new action plan aimed at enhancing domestic travel accessibility and developing low-altitude tourism [9] - The Chinese passenger car market saw retail sales of 2.263 million units in November, a year-on-year decline of 7%, while the new energy vehicle market grew by 7% [9] Group 7 - The China Internet Finance Association is enhancing self-regulation for financial applications and mini-programs, aiming to mitigate risks associated with digital financial channels [10] - Binance appointed co-founder He Yi as co-CEO to expand its global business and strengthen compliance efforts [10] Group 8 - The U.S. stock market saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.86%, while the tech sector faced declines, particularly in Chinese concept stocks [15] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the French market benefiting from consumer sector resilience [15] Group 9 - The domestic bond market experienced narrow fluctuations, with most interest rates rising, while the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation [17] - The U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [17] Group 10 - International precious metals futures generally rose, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and positive economic data from Europe [18] - Crude oil prices increased amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [18]

Group 1 - The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. increased its stake in Dongfang Electric (01072) by 346,000 shares at a price of HKD 20.9534 per share, totaling approximately HKD 7.2499 million [1] - Following the increase, Goldman Sachs' total shareholding in Dongfang Electric is approximately 32.844 million shares, representing a stake of 8.05% [1]

Bank of America, UBS and Goldman are among global finance firms canceling festive celebrations in Hong Kong this month as a mark of respect for those killed in the city’s deadliest blaze in eight decades https://t.co/LNewloGXbj ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing decline in China's real estate market, particularly in first-tier cities, highlighting a potential further drop in property prices by nearly 20% [3][4][10] Group 1: Market Conditions - Property prices in Shenzhen have decreased by approximately 30% from their peak as of November this year [3] - A report from Zhongyou Securities indicates that national property prices have fallen by about 40% since their peak, with first-tier cities experiencing declines between 20% and 30% [10] - The inventory of new residential properties has surged, with Beijing's new housing inventory reaching 123,000 units and Shanghai's at 138,000 units, marking a five-year high [7] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment - A survey by the People's Bank of China shows that only 16.5% of urban residents are willing to buy a home in the next three months, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the previous year [7] - The shift in consumer behavior from "buying on the rise" to "not buying as prices fall" reflects a significant loss of confidence in the market [7] Group 3: Future Predictions - The annual demand for new residential properties in urban China is projected to drop to around 5 million units, a stark contrast to the 20 million units during the peak in 2017 [8] - The article suggests that the remaining potential decline in property prices aligns with predictions from both Goldman Sachs and internal bank assessments, indicating a consensus on the market's downward trajectory [10][12]

Group 1 - The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. increased its stake in Dongfang Electric Corporation (01072.HK) by purchasing 346,000 shares at an average price of HKD 20.9534 per share, totaling approximately HKD 7.25 million [1] - Following this transaction, Goldman Sachs' total holdings in Dongfang Electric rose to 32,844,013 shares, increasing its ownership percentage from 7.97% to 8.05% [1][2]

A Canadian benefits provider owned by Goldman is seeking around $500 million from private credit lenders to finance a payout to shareholders, according to sources https://t.co/Bo1IDkKLHA ...

Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. private sector employment unexpectedly decreased by 32,000 in November, marking the largest decline since early 2023, raising concerns about a weakening labor market [4][6] - Over the past six months, employment numbers have recorded declines in four out of six months, contrasting with economists' median forecast of a 10,000 increase [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Reforms - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra plans to push for a new regulation requiring Federal Reserve regional bank president candidates to reside in their district for at least three years [8] - Becerra has criticized the Federal Reserve for straying from its primary mission of monetary policy, suggesting that regional bank presidents should come from their respective areas rather than being external hires [8] Group 3: Corporate Movements - Meta Platforms has hired Apple's top design executive, Alan Dye, indicating its commitment to entering the artificial intelligence consumer device market [10][11] - Stephen Lemay, a long-time designer at Apple, will replace Dye in his previous role [11] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry - Micron announced it will stop selling consumer storage products to focus on meeting the surging demand for high-performance AI chips [13] - The decision reflects a broader trend where AI infrastructure growth is leading to shortages in core input products like storage [13] Group 5: Commodity Prices - Copper prices surged to a new high, driven by a spike in orders for copper withdrawals from London Metal Exchange warehouses, raising supply concerns amid potential U.S. tariffs [15] - LME copper rose by 3.4%, exceeding $11,500 per ton, with significant increases in copper mining stocks, particularly Antofagasta Plc, which saw a rise of over 5% [15] Group 6: Stock Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs' macro trader compares the stock market's upcoming year to a boxing match, with AI and stimulus measures as bullish drivers against high valuations and credit pressures as bearish forces [17] - The S&P 500 is expected to record double-digit gains for the third consecutive year, with significant capital expenditures from the "seven tech giants" projected to inject around $600 billion into the U.S. economy [17]