（文章来源：新华财经） 高盛集团经济学家预计，美联储将在12月降息，使利率降至略高于3%的水平，美国经济放缓的幅度可 能超出预期。 ...

高盛集团经济学家预计美联储将在12月降息，使利率降至略高于3%的水平。该行首席经济学家Jan Hatzius警告称，美国经济放缓的幅度可能超出预期，所以需要美联储更多的降息。他表示，尽管9月非 农报告显示就业市场新增了11.9万个就业岗位，但不断增加的裁员表明劳动力市场的疲软可能正在固 化，从而限制了经济温和增长的影响力。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing increased volatility as many previously high-performing stocks are undergoing corrections, leading to pressure on investors who entered at higher prices [1] - Despite the volatility, multiple brokerages believe that the A-share bull market is likely to continue into 2026, with a consensus forming around this expectation [1] - Gold is highlighted as a key investment direction, especially with support from international giants, as it may provide a stable asset allocation for investors seeking to avoid market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while UBS has also increased its mid-year target to $4,500 per ounce, indicating a significant shift in gold investment logic [1][3] - The underlying logic for the surge in gold prices extends beyond its traditional safe-haven status, as it is increasingly viewed as a super-sovereign currency amid a global trend of "de-dollarization" [3][5] - The share of the US dollar in global central bank foreign exchange reserves has decreased by 4 percentage points from 2018 to 2025, while gold's share has increased by 12 percentage points, indicating a growing preference for gold over the dollar [5] Group 3 - Central banks have been net buyers of gold for several years, with China's central bank increasing its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, raising gold's share in China's foreign exchange reserves to 8.5% as of September 2025 [7] - The demand for gold is further supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which is anticipated to lower real interest rates and enhance gold's attractiveness as an asset [8] - Geopolitical risks, including conflicts and trade tensions, continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, contributing to its price strength [8] Group 4 - The strong demand from central banks and gold ETFs is a key reason for the upward revision of gold price targets by major financial institutions, with central bank purchases offsetting the impact of rising interest rates on ETF holdings [9] - Historical data shows that gold prices have significant upside potential, having only increased by 2 times since 2018, compared to previous bull markets where prices surged much higher [9][11] - Emerging market central banks, including China, have gold reserve ratios below the global average, indicating a sustained long-term demand for gold that supports the price target of $4,900 [11] Group 5 - For ordinary investors, gold is recommended as a stable asset in their portfolio, with suggested allocation ratios of 10%-20% based on individual risk preferences [13] - It is advised to prioritize gold ETFs and linked funds for investment due to their lower costs and convenience, with South China Fund being a leading player in the domestic ETF market [14][15] - A strategy of dollar-cost averaging through regular investments in gold is recommended, with a holding period of at least 1-3 years to benefit from long-term price appreciation [16]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement a third consecutive rate cut in December, citing easing inflation and a cooling labor market as factors that allow for further monetary policy relaxation [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Cut Predictions - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to lower rates twice more in 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.00%–3.25% [2]. - The firm believes that the trend of slowing inflation will persist, leading to a gradual transition of monetary policy towards a neutral stance [2]. - Goldman Sachs notes that since the start of the rate cut cycle, financial conditions have significantly eased, stabilizing corporate borrowing costs and household credit flow [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams, market expectations for a December rate cut have increased, with a 69.5% probability of a 25 basis point cut, up from about 42% a week prior [2]. - In contrast, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase have retracted their predictions for a December rate cut after the unexpectedly strong September non-farm payroll report, which showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, significantly above the expected 50,000 [4]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021, prompting both firms to reassess their outlook on the Fed's monetary policy [4].

Group 1: AI Market Outlook in China - The development and application of artificial intelligence (AI) are opening new opportunities for the Chinese stock market, with a focus on application rather than just computational power [1][2] - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist Liu Jinjun believes that the AI-driven stock rally in China is not a bubble, as Chinese tech companies can expand valuations and profits by focusing on applications [1][2] - The total market capitalization of China's top ten tech companies is $2.5 trillion, compared to $25 trillion for their U.S. counterparts, indicating a significant valuation gap [1] Group 2: Investment Sentiment and Concerns - There is growing optimism about China's rise as an AI superpower, especially following the launch of efficient low-cost models by startups like DeepSeek and new AI tools from major tech companies [2] - In contrast, the U.S. market is experiencing significant volatility, with concerns about a potential AI bubble as large tech firms announce massive capital expenditures in the AI sector [2][3] - Some investors argue that the current investment cycle in AI is a boom rather than a bubble, citing strong demand and supply dynamics [3] Group 3: Challenges in AI Implementation - A report from MIT highlights that despite $30-40 billion invested in enterprise AI, 95% of organizations are seeing no return on investment, leading to a divide in AI outcomes [6][8] - The report indicates that only 5% of integrated AI pilots are generating significant value, while most projects remain stalled without measurable impact on profits [6][8] - Key barriers to scaling AI solutions include a lack of learning and adaptation in most systems, rather than issues related to infrastructure or regulation [8][9]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs maintains its core judgment on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, predicting a 25 basis point rate cut in December, followed by two additional cuts in March and June 2026, ultimately lowering the federal funds rate to a terminal level of 3%-3.25% [1][4] - The upcoming December 10 meeting is unlikely to be hindered by any factors, as key economic reports will be released after the meeting, shifting market focus from "whether to cut rates" to the policy path and economic landing shape post-cut [2][4] - The U.S. economy is expected to accelerate growth to a range of 2%-2.5% in 2026, with the unemployment rate stabilizing slightly above the September level of 4.44% due to reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and eased financial conditions [4][5] Group 2 - Despite a seemingly strong non-farm payroll increase of 119,000 jobs, there are growing concerns about the labor market, with potential job growth trends estimated at only 39,000 jobs, and signs of layoffs emerging in October [7] - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 25 and older has risen by 1 percentage point to 2.8%, while the rate for graduates aged 20 to 24 has climbed to 8.5%, indicating a deterioration in job opportunities for this key demographic [7] - Concerns about the "AI bubble" suggest that while AI is projected to create significant incremental capital income over the next 10-15 years, current stock market valuations have already priced in these expectations, leading to forecasts of lower returns for U.S. equities over the next decade [8]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement a third consecutive rate cut in December, citing easing inflation and a cooling labor market as factors allowing for further monetary policy relaxation [1] - The firm anticipates additional rate cuts in 2026, with the federal funds rate expected to fall to a range of 3.00%–3.25% [2] - Goldman Sachs notes that financial conditions have significantly eased since the Fed began its rate-cutting cycle, which has helped stabilize corporate borrowing costs and household credit flow [2] Group 2 - In contrast, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase have abandoned their predictions for a December rate cut following a stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll report, which showed an unexpected increase of 119,000 jobs in September [4] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since 2021, prompting Morgan Stanley to retract its forecast for a 25 basis point cut in December [4] - JPMorgan followed suit after Morgan Stanley's decision, also dropping its prediction for a December rate cut [4]

来源：智通财经 高盛还预计，美联储2026年再降息两次，分别在3月和6月，最终将联邦基金利率降至3.00%–3.25%的区间。 该行的基准观点是，美联储将越来越相信，通胀放缓的趋势将持续下去，货币政策无需继续维持在明显具有限制性的水平。 高盛分析师表示，美联储短期内可能会保持谨慎的基调，但核心物价和薪资增长的轨迹表明，明年的政策立场可能会逐步向中性水平过渡。 此外，高盛指出，自美联储启动降息周期以来，金融环境已显著宽松，这有助于稳定企业借贷成本和家庭信贷流动。 该行预计，到2026年年中，美联储将完成新冠疫情时期调整以来的首次实质性宽松周期，届时利率将显著低于去年的峰值水平，但仍高于过去十年的 超宽松水平。 智通财经11月24日讯（编辑 卞纯）高盛最新预计，美联储将在12月的会议上实施连续第三次降息。该行认为，通胀放缓以及劳动力市场降温，为政 策制定者进一步放松货币政策提供了空间。 在高盛作出上述预测之际，由于美联储"三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯上周五发表了鸽派言论，称他认为"短期内仍有进一步降息的空间"，令12月 降息预期显著增强。 "明年的风险倾向于进行更多次降息，因为核心通胀方面的消息一直有利，而就业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of Chinese stocks driven by artificial intelligence (AI) is not a bubble, as Chinese tech companies still have room to enhance valuations and profits through a focus on AI applications [1][3] Group 1: AI Investment and Market Dynamics - China is directing more funds towards AI applications compared to the U.S., leading to stronger short-term commercialization potential for AI in China [1] - The demand for AI-related products needs to be effectively converted into actual revenue by companies [1] - The optimistic sentiment surrounding China's emergence as an AI superpower has been fueled by the launch of efficient and low-cost AI models by startups like DeepSeek and major tech companies introducing new AI tools [1] Group 2: Valuation Comparisons - The total market capitalization of China's top ten tech companies is approximately $2.5 trillion, while their U.S. counterparts stand at $25 trillion, indicating a tenfold difference [3] - U.S. tech giants account for about 40% of the S&P 500 index's total market capitalization, whereas Chinese tech giants represent only around 15% [3] - The AI investment cycle in China is approximately 18 months behind that of the U.S., suggesting further growth potential and the possibility of translating this into profit and revenue growth [3] Group 3: Profit Growth and Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts a profit growth rate for Chinese companies of 12% to 13% next year, a significant increase from the current expectation of 2% to 3% [4] - After a 48% increase in the price-to-earnings ratio of the MSCI China Index since the end of 2022, future valuation adjustments are expected to slow to around 5% to 10% [4] - By 2027, Chinese stocks are projected to rise an additional 30% [4] - Factors contributing to profit growth include AI investment, overall GDP growth in China, anti-involution policies, and the globalization of Chinese companies [4] Group 4: Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - Strong capital inflows from both domestic and international investors are expected to support the continuation of the bull market in Chinese stocks [5] - Global investors are increasingly willing to explore investment opportunities in China, recognizing the strong growth potential in the tech and AI sectors [5] - Clients from emerging markets such as Mexico, Chile, and the Middle East are actively investing in Chinese assets, viewing the tech sector as crucial for long-term growth and diversification [5] Group 5: Positive Outlook from Foreign Investment Banks - Despite recent pullbacks in global tech stocks, several foreign investment banks have expressed bullish views on Chinese stocks [6] - Morgan Stanley predicts that Chinese stocks will continue to rise through 2026, maintaining the strong momentum seen this year [7] - JPMorgan analysts indicate that the recovery of Chinese tech stocks from their lows is still in its early stages, with significant growth potential driven by tech companies and Hong Kong stocks [7] - UBS anticipates another fruitful year for Chinese stocks in 2026, supported by favorable factors including developments in innovative sectors [7]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in December, with further cuts expected in March and June of next year, driven by economic risks and inflation nearing the target [1][3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The report indicates that the FOMC is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points during the December meeting, with a potential terminal federal funds rate of 3%-3.25% by 2026 [3]. - Key figures within the Federal Reserve support this view, highlighting the need for "further adjustments" due to cooling labor markets and reduced inflation risks [3][5]. - The upcoming employment report and CPI data are scheduled after the December meeting, suggesting no obstacles to the rate cut decision [3]. Economic Growth Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts that U.S. economic growth will accelerate to a range of 2%-2.5% in 2026, aided by reduced tariffs, tax cuts, and eased financial conditions [4]. - The unemployment rate is expected to stabilize slightly above the September level of 4.44% [4]. Inflation Outlook - The report suggests limited upside risks for further rate cuts, based on a positive interpretation of recent inflation data [5]. - Core PCE inflation has remained stable around 2.8% as of September, indicating that underlying inflation is close to the target [6][7]. Labor Market Concerns - Despite a strong non-farm payroll report, there are growing risks in the labor market, with potential job growth trends estimated at only 39,000 [9]. - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 25 and older has risen to 2.8%, while the rate for those aged 20-24 has increased to 8.5%, indicating a deterioration in job opportunities for this demographic [9]. - The impact of AI and efficiency improvements may disproportionately affect consumer spending, potentially leading to more rate cuts by the Fed [9]. Stock Market Outlook - The report indicates that while spending is not excessive, stock market valuations are high, leading to expectations of lower returns for U.S. equities over the next decade compared to historical averages [10].