2025.11. 04 本文字数：1953，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 在上周最忙业绩披露期结束后，美股本轮新财报季已经过半。机构统计显示，本季度市场业绩超额收 益较历史均值有所下降，与此同时，考虑到目前的估值水平，美联储的政策立场的微妙前景可能带来 潜在的逆风。 高盛：业绩利好反馈不佳 威尔逊在周一发布的报告中表示："我们认为这是一个未被充分关注的趋势，且预计该趋势将持续至 2026年，推动主要指数与次要指数的盈利贡献范围不断扩大。与往常一样，股市已先于共识预测者 察觉到这一变化。" 事实上，当前财报季的一大亮点是企业营收表现远超预期：截至目前，标普500指数成分股营收同比 增长2.3%，是历史平均增速的两倍。由此看来，企业盈利层面整体呈现乐观态势。贸易担忧情绪的 缓解也对市场信心起到提振作用。但威尔逊及其团队也承认，股市可能面临一些短期风险。 尽管第三季度财报季表现亮眼，但市场并未对此给予充分的回报。 高盛整理的数据显示，业绩超预期的个股在财报发布后，尽管股价在业绩超出分析师预测后仍会上 涨，但其涨幅已低于历史水平。相对标普500指数的超额收益率中位数仅为32个基点。而在过去，这 类个 ...

An end to the government shutdown could be in sight, according to Goldman Sachs.By completing this form, you agree to receive marketing communications from PYMNTS and to the sharing of your information with our sponsor, if applicable, in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions .Complete the form to unlock this article and enjoy unlimited free access to all PYMNTS content — no additional logins required.Increasing operational and political pressures could push lawmakers to striking a comp ...

Two partners at Goldman both said they lie awake thinking about their colleagues, or "our people." One also said she still sweats the details, even in such a senior role. Goldman Sachs is about to announce new managing directors, shaking up the leadership of its people. Between billion-dollar investments and global market shocks, partners at Goldman Sachs have no shortage of things to worry about. But two of them share a common nighttime preoccupation. Business Insider separately asked Meena Lakda ...

CEO Turnover and Trends - In Q3, 174 global CEOs left their positions, with average CEO tenure declining to 7.2 years, down from 8.4 years two years ago [1][2] - 88% of new CEOs appointed globally in 2025 are first-timers, indicating a search for new perspectives amid multifaceted business challenges [3] - U.S. companies reported that 69% of new CEO hires were internal, reflecting a balance between institutional knowledge and the need for fresh viewpoints [3] Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The ongoing government shutdown could cost the U.S. between $7 billion to $14 billion in GDP, affecting federal workers and food benefits [6] - The expiration of health insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act is leading to significant premium increases, with an average rise of 17% in state-run exchanges and 30% in federally managed programs [7] Consumer Confidence and Economic Outlook - Consumer confidence dropped to a seven-month low of 94.6 in October, with some sectors potentially in recession [8][9] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point for the second consecutive month, with mixed opinions among governors regarding future cuts [10] Major Corporate Deals - Kimberly-Clark announced plans to acquire Kenvue for $48.7 billion, positioning itself as the second-largest seller of health and wellness products globally, with expected annual revenue of $32 billion [11][13] - Kenvue's stock had fallen over 22% since September but rose more than 16% following the acquisition announcement [13] Workforce Changes Due to AI - Amazon announced layoffs of 14,000 corporate staff, with projections that AI and automation could replace 600,000 jobs by 2033 [14][15] - Other tech companies, including Microsoft and Meta, have also reduced headcounts, with Goldman Sachs estimating 6% to 7% of the U.S. workforce could be displaced by AI [15][16] AI in Customer Service - ReflexAI focuses on using AI to train human call center employees rather than replacing them, emphasizing the importance of human interaction for customer satisfaction [18][23] - The company aims to enhance training simulations to better prepare agents for handling various customer emotions and situations [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the ongoing U.S. government shutdown is likely to end around the second week of November, while also warning that key economic data releases will be delayed [1][2][6]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Insights - Goldman Sachs indicates that the current government shutdown is approaching the record duration of 35 days set in 2018-2019, but believes the end is closer than the beginning [3]. - The prolonged shutdown is partly due to unconventional measures taken by the Trump administration, which has utilized unspent funds from the previous year to pay military salaries, temporarily alleviating some tensions [3]. - Key pressure points, such as air traffic controllers and airport security personnel missing their first full payday on October 28, are increasing the risk of travel delays, which historically have been strong catalysts for government reopening [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Federal Reserve Decisions - The shutdown has disrupted the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) payments, leading to delays in benefits despite court rulings allowing emergency fund usage [4]. - Congressional staff salaries are also affected, which may prompt lawmakers to expedite negotiations [5]. - Political events, such as elections on November 4 and Congress's planned recess after November 7, could create incentives for reaching an agreement before these dates [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Predictions - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup both express optimism that the government shutdown will end within two weeks, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's data-driven decision-making [8]. - If the government reopens around mid-November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may take several days to release the delayed September employment report, with the November employment and CPI reports potentially facing a one-week delay [9][10]. - Citigroup maintains its forecast for consecutive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December, January, and March, contingent on the reopening of the government and the subsequent data recovery [11][12]. Group 4: Economic Cost of the Shutdown - Goldman Sachs estimates that if the shutdown lasts about six weeks, it could reduce the annualized real GDP growth for Q4 2025 by 1.15 percentage points due to federal employee furloughs, leading to a downward revision of Q4 GDP growth to 1.0% [13]. - However, this impact is expected to be temporary, with a projected GDP growth boost of 1.3 percentage points in Q1 2026 as furloughed employees return and federal procurement shifts from Q4 to Q1 [13].

高盛上调对中国出口增速预期 高盛研究团队预测，人民币国际化可能在未来几年显著加速。预计随着高新技术制造业竞争力提升以及 人民币国际化加速，中国股市将表现领先，人民币对美元汇率将会升值。到2028年中国经常账户顺差与 国内生产总值(GDP)之比将接近5%，考虑到中国经济的庞大体量，这将是相对于全球GDP的历史新高。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 上述报告还认为，10月份发生的两个重大事件——《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五 年规划的建议》对外公布和中美经贸团队通过吉隆坡磋商达成成果共识，发出的信号方向一致，即中国 将进一步提升先进制造业竞争力并进一步提振出口。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 由此，高盛研究团队上调了对中国出口增速的预期，预计未来几年中国出口量将每年增长5%至6%，获 得更多全球市场份额并推动整体经济扩张。(完) 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：郭晋嘉 中新社北京11月3日电 (记者 夏宾)中新社记者3日从高盛集团获 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectations for humanoid robot business are overly optimistic, leading Goldman Sachs to downgrade Sanhua Intelligent Controls' A-share rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" despite the company's long-term potential [1][4]. Group 1: Rating Changes - Goldman Sachs issued a report on November 2, downgrading Sanhua's A-share rating due to the stock price reflecting overly optimistic short-term sentiments that are unlikely to materialize [1]. - The target price for Sanhua's A-share is set at 40.9 RMB, indicating an 18.1% downside from the report's release price [4]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Goldman Sachs believes the current stock price incorporates aggressive assumptions regarding robot shipment volumes, which are not feasible within the next 12 months [4]. - The analysis suggests that the market's enthusiasm for Sanhua's humanoid robot business is premature, with implied valuations requiring shipments of 900,000 to 2 million humanoid robots [5]. Group 3: Business Performance - Sanhua's traditional business may face growth slowdowns in the next two to three quarters due to high base effects and government subsidy controls [7]. - The growth rate for Sanhua's electric vehicle thermal management business is expected to moderate, with projections of 12%-15% year-on-year growth in the coming quarters [7]. Group 4: Earnings Forecasts - Despite the downgrade, Goldman Sachs raised its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for Sanhua for 2025-2030 by 4%-8% due to the company's strong cost control [8]. - The target price-to-earnings ratio for Sanhua has been increased from 21 times to 25 times, reflecting improved long-term profitability and valuation models [8].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the ongoing partial government shutdown in the U.S. is likely to end within two weeks, which is crucial for the data-driven decision-making of the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Government Shutdown Outlook - Goldman Sachs indicates that the shutdown, which is approaching the record duration of 35 days from 2018-2019, is nearing its end, with a likely resolution around the second week of November [2][3]. - The prolonged shutdown is attributed to unconventional measures taken by the Trump administration, such as utilizing unspent funds from the previous year, but this temporary relief is diminishing [2]. - Key pressure points, including missed paychecks for air traffic controllers and airport security personnel, are increasing the urgency for Congress to reach a compromise [2]. Group 2: Impact on Federal Reserve Decisions - The duration of the shutdown is seen as a critical variable influencing the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in December [1][4]. - If the government reopens by mid-November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may take additional days to release delayed employment reports, which could affect the timing of key economic data releases [4]. - Citigroup analysts express growing confidence that the government will reopen soon, allowing the Fed to receive multiple employment reports before its December meeting, potentially supporting a 25 basis point rate cut [4]. Group 3: Economic Consequences of the Shutdown - Goldman Sachs estimates that if the shutdown lasts about six weeks, it could reduce the annualized real GDP growth for Q4 2025 by 1.15 percentage points, leading to a downward revision of the GDP growth forecast to 1.0% [5]. - The report suggests that the economic impact of the shutdown is likely to be temporary, with a rebound expected in Q1 2026 as furloughed employees return to work [5].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, contrary to investor expectations that it was almost certain [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - Powell's comments indicate that the decision for a December rate cut is still uncertain, suggesting a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve [1] - The market had previously anticipated a rate cut as a near certainty following the October monetary policy meeting [1] Group 2: Goldman Sachs Perspective - Goldman Sachs strategists maintain that the motivation for a Federal Reserve rate cut aligns with a further decline in the U.S. dollar, indicating a less favorable economic outlook for the U.S. compared to previous periods [1] - The report from Goldman Sachs suggests that the U.S. economy is not expected to perform as strongly as it has in the past [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant shift in the U.S. energy landscape, driven by a surge in renewable energy projects, particularly solar and battery storage, while also noting a substantial increase in planned natural gas and storage projects for the long term [3][6][7]. Group 1: Renewable Energy Growth - Solar and battery storage projects are expected to dominate the new capacity additions in the short term, with solar projects alone accounting for 94% and 99% of the new capacity forecasted by Goldman Sachs for the next two years [1][6]. - In the first nine months of the year, over 90% of the 32 GW of new capacity added was from solar and battery storage [4]. - The current planning for solar projects has reached a historical high of 122 GW, while natural gas and storage projects have seen increases of 127% and 60%, respectively, reaching 40 GW and 67 GW [3][5]. Group 2: Project Delays and Challenges - Despite strong growth, the article emphasizes that the high rate of project delays remains a significant challenge, with 36.5% of planned solar projects and 38.6% of planned wind projects facing delays of over six months [5]. - In contrast, natural gas projects have a much lower delay rate of 11.2%, indicating better execution efficiency [5]. Group 3: Long-term Planning and Labor Shortages - Looking ahead, there is a clear shift in project timelines, with most renewable energy projects expected to come online between 2026 and 2027, while a significant number of natural gas projects are planned for 2028 to 2030 [6][7]. - Labor shortages are identified as a critical constraint on achieving energy growth targets, with an estimated need for over 500,000 new jobs in the electricity and grid sectors by 2030 [8][10]. - The aging workforce is a concern, as 30% of electricians are nearing retirement, and training skilled workers takes 3-5 years [9].