花旗发表研报指，拼多多第二季度净利润超出预期，归因于低于预期的销售与市场推广费用。但管理层 多次提醒投资者，因公司致力于商家支持，第二季度利润不可持续，花旗将此解读为管理预期并保 持"低调"。 花旗又认为，关于跨境电商平台Temu与本地供应商合作开展本地化营运，以及加强物流服务的评论， 可能暗示其将进军欧洲、美国和巴西等市场。该行将拼多多目标价从154美元上调至168美元，维持"买 入"评级。 ...

巴克莱：将拼多多(PDD.US)目标价从158.00美元上调至165.00美元。 ...

Results Largely In Line with Expectations, with Strong Bottom-Line Beat. PDD reported total revenue of RMB103 billion in 2Q25, up 7% YoY and in line with consensus. Online marketing and other services revenue rose 13% YoY to RMB55.7 billion (vs. consensus: +11.8%), while transaction services revenue edged up 0.7% YoY to RMB48.3 billion (vs. consensus: +0.6%). Gross profit came in at RMB58.1 billion, slightly below expectations (consensus: RMB61.6 billion), with a gross margin of 56% (vs. consensus: 59.3%). ...

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo is focusing on long-term ecological construction and merchant support rather than competing in the immediate retail sector, showcasing a unique approach in the Chinese e-commerce industry [1][2][10] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Pinduoduo reported revenue of 1,040 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate slowing to 7%, and net profit of 307.5 billion yuan, marking a decline for two consecutive quarters [2][3] - The company has introduced the "100 billion support" initiative to enhance merchant support and reduce costs, indicating a commitment to long-term development despite short-term performance fluctuations [2][3] Strategic Initiatives - Pinduoduo has implemented various initiatives since last year, including "100 billion reduction," "e-commerce westward," and "new quality supply," aimed at helping millions of merchants improve efficiency [3][4] - The "100 billion reduction" initiative has saved merchants significant operational costs, with some merchants saving millions in promotional fees [3][4] Market Impact - The "New Quality Supply" initiative has led to a 47% year-on-year increase in agricultural product sales on the platform, with specific categories like seasonal fruits and seafood seeing growth rates of 51% and 48%, respectively [4] - Pinduoduo's support has revitalized traditional industries, as seen in the case of brands like Dahuangfeng and Gongniu, which have successfully leveraged the platform to reach broader markets and achieve significant sales growth [7][9] Long-term Vision - Pinduoduo's leadership emphasizes a focus on high-quality development and creating space for long-term industry growth, rather than chasing short-term trends [6][10] - The company aims to enhance market competitiveness for merchants through digital technology and innovative business models, contributing to the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries [6][10]

Group 1 - Jefferies has raised the target price for Pinduoduo from $121 to $146 [1]

Group 1: Hong Kong Stocks - China Gold International (02099) rose nearly 7%, reaching a new high as core product output exceeded half of the annual guidance, with significant expansion potential at the Jiama mine [1] - Pop Mart (09992) increased by nearly 2%, with new products selling out instantly and continued high growth in H1 performance [1] - Meitu (01357) surged over 7% after officially entering the MSCI China Index, with Morgan Stanley optimistic about the company's long-term growth potential [1] - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055) climbed nearly 6.5%, setting a new high since its listing, with stable growth in H1 performance and promising expansion opportunities as an overseas platform for China Tobacco International [1] - China National Chemical Corporation (03983) fell over 1% as mid-term shareholder profit decreased by 6.74% year-on-year, with a significant drop in urea sales prices [1] - China Intelligent Transportation (01900) surged over 42% after a profit warning, expecting mid-term shareholder profit of approximately 361 million yuan [1] - Keep (03650) dropped nearly 5% post-earnings despite successfully turning a profit in H1, focusing its strategy on AI [1] - Western Cement (02233) rose nearly 6.5% post-earnings, with mid-term shareholder profit increasing by 93.4% due to high growth in overseas sales [1] - ChinaSoft International (00354) increased over 4% post-earnings, with H1 net profit rising over 10% and HarmonyOS 5 terminal devices exceeding 12 million units [1] Group 2: US Stocks - NIO (NIO.US) fell 3.94% after Citigroup set a target price of $8.1, listing five reasons to buy [3] - Shanghai's optimization of real estate policies led to significant gains for housing service platforms, with Fangduo (DUO.US) rising 28.28% and Beike (BEKE) up 1.57% [3] - Hesai (HSAI.US) rose 0.52%, with expectations of 300,000 to 400,000 units shipped in the entire robot lidar market this year, and over 200,000 units for the robot market [3] - Pinduoduo (PDD.US) increased by 0.87% ahead of its earnings report, with optimistic market expectations reflected in declining Put/Call ratios [3] - Intel (INTC.US) fell 1.01% as the federal government acquired a 10% stake in the struggling chip giant, becoming its largest shareholder [4] - American Airlines (AAL.US) dropped 4.06% after an emergency landing due to a passenger's electronic device catching fire [4] - Netflix (NFLX.US) rose 1.11%, achieving its first box office champion in North America [4] - Spirit Airlines (FLYY.US) plummeted 14.02% as financial restructuring failed to lead to sustainable development [4] - Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP.US) fell 11.48% after announcing a €15.7 billion (approximately $18.4 billion) cash acquisition of Dutch coffee giant JDE Peet's NV [4] - Roblox (RBLX.US) increased by 6.02%, with Wedbush maintaining an "outperform" rating and a target price of $165, citing strong user ecosystem and business model growth potential [4] - Opendoor (OPEN.US) dropped 9.38% despite a significant prior increase, with July existing home sales rising 2% month-on-month to an annualized 4.01 million units [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Pinduoduo [5] Core Insights - Pinduoduo's Q2 2025 total revenue reached 104 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, aligning with Visible Alpha's consensus estimate of 103.2 billion RMB; the non-GAAP net profit was 32.7 billion RMB, corresponding to a non-GAAP net profit margin of 31.5%, which is a decline of 4 percentage points year-on-year but better than the consensus estimate of 21.0% [1][5] - The better-than-expected profit performance is attributed to significant improvements in interest and investment income, which amounted to 10.4 billion RMB in Q2 2025, compared to 4.9 billion RMB in Q2 2024 and 0.2 billion RMB in Q1 2025; a decrease in sales expense ratio due to reduced marketing spending in overseas markets and a cautious subsidy strategy in domestic e-commerce [1][2] - Management indicated that profitability may fluctuate as the company increases investment, and the Q2 2025 performance may not represent future trends [1] Domestic E-commerce - Pinduoduo's online marketplace service revenue grew by 13.4% year-on-year to 55.7 billion RMB, exceeding the consensus estimate of 11.8% growth; transaction service revenue increased by 0.7% to 48.3 billion RMB, in line with the consensus estimate [2] - The "100 billion subsidy" plan has significantly reduced costs for merchants, with logistics improvements leading to a 40% year-on-year increase in orders from remote areas; the "1 trillion support" plan is helping merchants transition from private label to branded products [2] Overseas E-commerce - Management is focusing on enhancing supply chain, service, and compliance capabilities to improve business efficiency; the sales expense ratio for Q2 2025 was 26.2%, better than the consensus estimate of 34.1%, reflecting a short-term decrease in marketing spending in the U.S. [3] - Future investments will be directed towards localizing operations and improving fulfillment experiences, with expectations for Temu to continue enhancing overseas warehouse capabilities [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report revises the non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards by 35.6%, 25.7%, and 23.6% to 108.6 billion RMB, 133.9 billion RMB, and 157.9 billion RMB respectively; the new target price is set at 136.0 USD, up from 102.3 USD [4][20] - The valuation for the domestic e-commerce main site is set at 93.0 USD per ADS, based on a 9x PE for 2025E, while the valuation for the multi-buy business is 11.2 USD per ADS, and for Temu, it is 31.8 USD per ADS [20][21]

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,830, up 1.94% for the day and 28.76% year-to-date [1] - The A-share market is entering a second bullish phase, with significant increases in client margin sizes at securities firms and a notable rise in ETF investments, reaching $681 billion, surpassing Japan [3][4] Company Analysis Pinduoduo (PDD US) - Pinduoduo reported Q2 2025 revenue growth of 7% year-on-year, reaching 104 billion RMB, in line with expectations, driven by online marketing services [5] - Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 5% to 32.7 billion RMB, but exceeded market expectations by 46%, indicating strong operational performance [5] - The target price has been raised by 9% to $146.30, reflecting a positive outlook despite ongoing investments in platform ecosystem enhancement [5] Jiumaojiu (9922 HK) - Jiumaojiu's revenue for the first half of FY25 decreased by 10% to 2.75 billion RMB, slightly below market expectations [9] - The company anticipates closing 40 to 50 additional stores in the second half of FY25, leading to a total of approximately 100 closures for the year [6] - Despite challenges, there are positive signs of stabilization in same-store sales, with a potential rebound expected from store renovations [6][9] ZhongAn Online (6060 HK) - ZhongAn Online's net profit for the first half of FY25 surged by 11.04 times to 668 million RMB, significantly exceeding market expectations [10] - The property and casualty insurance segment saw a 9.3% increase in total premiums, driven by substantial growth in health and auto insurance [10] - The target price has been raised to 23 HKD, reflecting improved profitability and operational efficiency [10] Greentown Service (2869 HK) - Greentown Service reported a 22.6% increase in net profit for the first half of FY25, with total revenue growing by 6.1% [12] - The company has successfully improved operational efficiency, leading to enhanced profit margins despite industry pressures [12][13] - The target price has been adjusted to 6.61 HKD, based on a revised earnings forecast and valuation adjustments [12][15] Baker Hughes (2149 HK) - Baker Hughes achieved a revenue of 292 million RMB in the first half of FY25, a slight increase from the previous year, maintaining strong profitability with a gross margin of 51.8% [18] - The company continues to expand its product offerings and remains a core recommendation in the semiconductor sector [18][19] - The target price remains at 93 HKD, reflecting confidence in long-term growth prospects [19] Tongda Group (698 HK) - Tongda Group's net profit for the first half of FY25 increased by 394%, driven by reduced financial costs and improved operational efficiency [20] - The company is expected to benefit from upgrades in its main business and expansion in its subsidiary's product lines [20] - The target price has been raised to 0.135 HKD, reflecting improved earnings visibility [20]

Core Insights - The company's total revenue reached 97.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, aligning with market expectations; however, adjusted net profit was 34.4 billion, a year-on-year decline of 5%, significantly exceeding expectations [1] Financial Performance - The initial market reaction was positive, with stock prices rising over 10% after the earnings report, but this was followed by a decline as investors reassessed the sustainability of the profit increase [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit saw a significant decline of 21% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit only decreased by 5%, attributed to two main factors: a substantial increase in interest and investment income, which was 10.4 billion this quarter compared to 200 million in the previous quarter, and a reduction in income tax payments from 5.9 billion last year to 4.8 billion this year, resulting in an additional 1.1 billion in cash flow [3] Management Commentary - The management's tone during the earnings call was notably pessimistic, emphasizing the need for continued high-pressure strategies towards shareholders and indicating that future profits may remain under pressure [4] - The management reiterated a commitment to long-term investments to support merchant development and enhance platform vitality, suggesting that short-term financial results are not the primary focus [4] Business Strategy - The company views community group buying as a natural extension of its e-commerce business, particularly in fresh agricultural products, and plans to maintain significant investment in this area despite the challenges [5] - The exit of Meituan from the community group buying space does not guarantee success for the company, as the business model differs significantly [5] International Operations - TEMU, a business segment with high uncertainty, has shown signs of recovery in U.S. traffic since June, indicating resilience against tariff adjustments, although it has not yet returned to previous levels [6] - The management acknowledged potential short-term fluctuations in international operations but expressed confidence in stable consumer demand and growing trust in the platform [6] Industry Position - The company remains one of the least AI-focused Chinese concept stocks, indicating a potential area for growth or investment in technology [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of 104 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 7.1%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of 32.7 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 5%, exceeding expectations [1][2] - The company is implementing a 100 billion yuan support plan to enhance the health of its merchant ecosystem, which is expected to drive sustainable long-term growth [1][2] - The report expresses optimism about the company's long-term growth potential in both domestic and overseas markets, particularly with the gradual improvement of tariff impacts on TEMU [2] Financial Performance Summary - Q2 2025 revenue was 1040 billion yuan, with advertising revenue at 557 billion yuan (up 13.4% YoY) and commission revenue at 482.8 billion yuan (up 0.7% YoY) [1][5] - The company's gross margin for Q2 2025 was 56%, a decrease of 9.4 percentage points year-over-year [5] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 2025 was 32.7 billion yuan, significantly exceeding expectations due to lower-than-expected sales expenses and increased interest and investment income [5] Financial Projections - Expected Non-GAAP net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 122.4 billion yuan, 158 billion yuan, and 189.1 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 0%, 29%, and 20% [2][3] - The report estimates a target price of $147 to $184 per share based on a 12-15 times PE ratio for 2025 Non-GAAP net profit [2][4] Market Position and Shareholder Information - The company has a total market capitalization of $146.2 billion and a current share price of $127 [4] - Major shareholder Huang Zheng holds a 24.8% stake in the company [4]