马斯克旗下两大私有巨头正式合并，市场目光迅速转向了拼图的最后一块——特斯拉。 据追风交易台消息，SpaceX近日宣布已收购马斯克旗下的人工智能公司xAI。此举正值SpaceX计划于今年年中进行首次IPO之际。汇丰最新研报显 示，这笔交易将使合并后的实体估值达到约1.25万亿美元，其中SpaceX估值约1万亿美元，xAI估值约2500亿美元。 马斯克在SpaceX网站上确认了这一消息，称此举旨在打造"地球上（及地球外）最雄心勃勃的垂直整合创新引擎"。他在一篇博客文章中进一步阐 述，其宏大目标是通过卫星网络"利用太阳的全部能量"来驱动AI应用，从而"加速人类的未来"。 这一重磅消息迅速在资本市场引发连锁反应，市场目光转向特斯拉。而后，预测市场Polymarket上关于"特斯拉与SpaceX在6月30日前宣布合 并"的合约概率从消息确认前的15%左右一度飙升至24%左右。 尽管特斯拉股价在周二收盘时仅微涨，但关于其未来归属的讨论已成为华尔街最热门的话题。 | Polymarket | Q Search polymarket 0 How it works | | | --- | --- | --- | | ් | P ...

隐藏式车门把手由特斯拉首创，多家中国电动车品牌随后采用这种设计，是新能源车区别于传统燃油车 的重要外观特征。相关车门把手可透过遥控钥匙、手机或手动按压的方式开启，车商以此强化科技感， 并称能降低风阻。懂车帝去年4月统计，中国销量前100的新能源车型中，约六成搭载隐藏式车门把手。 不过，这一设计潜在的安全风险近年在美国和中国都引发关注，包括增加了汽车碰撞、起火事故中潜在 的逃生与救援风险。目前，特斯拉的隐藏式车门把手也正受到美国当局的安全调查，欧洲监管机构也考 虑制定相关规定。 格隆汇2月4日｜工信部近日联合发布《汽车车门把手安全技术要求》，规定在中国销售的汽车，除了车 尾门之外，其余车门都要配置机械式车门外把手和车门内把手，即使在事故或断电情况下处于锁住状 态，车门也应能手动打开。这意味电动车使用的隐藏式门把手被禁，成为全球首个逐步淘汰这种设计的 国家。 工信部表示，新规将于2027年1月1日起开始实施，已获监管机构批准并即将进入中国市场的车辆，应于 2029年1月前修改其设计以符合要求。 ...

2月4日，步步高创始人、著名投资人段永平通过其雪球账号"大道无形我有型"发文表示，"FSD确实好 用，Model Y开起来也没啥不舒服的，现在开特斯拉已经是我的首选了。"此前，段永平曾表示马斯克 是牛人，但投资特斯拉有点难。在2025年11月上线的访谈中，段永平称不是很喜欢马斯克的品行，投资 实际上在跟公司经营者做朋友，"我不想跟他做朋友，哪怕给我钱我也不干"。段永平还表示，电动车的 生意不会太好，差异化很小，特斯拉做出了差异，但大部分电动车生意很艰苦。 ...

知名投资人段永平在雪球上谈及特斯拉时表示，"FSD确实好用，Model Y开起来也没啥不舒服的，现在 开特斯拉已经是我的首选了。" ...

责任编辑：李昂 责任编辑：李昂 2月4日，著名投资人段永平在平台上谈及特斯拉时表示，"FSD确实好用，Model Y开起来也没啥不舒服 的，现在开特斯拉已经是我的首选了。" 2月4日，著名投资人段永平在平台上谈及特斯拉时表示，"FSD确实好用，Model Y开起来也没啥不舒服 的，现在开特斯拉已经是我的首选了。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's future is increasingly expected to rely on AI rather than electric vehicles, necessitating stronger control over hardware for autonomous driving, robotics, and AI training, leading to the proposal of building a "TeraFab" chip factory [1] Group 1: Feasibility of Chip Manufacturing - The perception that new entrants must achieve cutting-edge technology like TSMC's 3nm and 5nm processes is misleading; there exists a viable middle ground where companies can produce chips suitable for AI workloads without reaching the highest standards [2] - Tesla's potential chip factory would likely target the 7nm technology node, which is still relevant for AI and data center applications, despite being a generation behind the latest advancements [2] Group 2: Challenges in Achieving Manufacturing Goals - Achieving the 7nm technology benchmark is not straightforward; it requires advanced equipment, clean facilities, and a skilled workforce, particularly engineers experienced in reducing chip defect rates [3] - Initial production could take three years or longer, with high material waste and a lengthy trial-and-error process before achieving usable output [3] Group 3: Economic Viability and Risks - Even if Tesla meets the technical requirements, it faces significant economic challenges; TSMC's capital expenditures exceed $40 billion annually, supported by a diverse customer base, which Tesla cannot replicate as it does not plan to sell chips externally [4] - The construction cost for a chip factory is estimated at a minimum of $20 billion, with a long investment recovery period, potentially spanning decades [4] - Execution risks are substantial, as evidenced by Intel's struggles with transitioning to 10nm chips and the operational challenges faced by Tesla in its automotive production [4][5] Group 4: Historical Context and Lessons - GlobalFoundries serves as a cautionary example; after acquiring IBM's chip business, it concluded that advanced chip manufacturing was economically unfeasible within three years [6] - Tesla may encounter dual risks similar to those faced by Intel and GlobalFoundries, which could lead to value destruction, often becoming apparent only after significant capital investment [6]

Core Viewpoint - Lucid Group, despite producing impressive electric vehicles, is struggling financially and has not been able to compete effectively with Tesla in the American EV market [3][10]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Lucid reported revenue of $337 million, a 68.5% increase compared to Q3 2024, driven by a 47% year-over-year rise in new vehicle deliveries [5]. - The company experienced a significant cash burn, starting the year with over $5 billion and ending Q3 2025 with $2.9 billion, alongside total debt of $2.8 billion, which increased by 2% year-over-year [6]. - Despite a revenue increase of $136 million, costs rose by $257.7 million, leading to a net loss reduction from $992.5 million in Q3 2024 to $978.4 million in Q3 2025 [7]. - Free cash flow losses deepened from -$622.5 million in Q3 2024 to -$955.5 million in Q3 2025, with a gross margin of -99.12% [8]. Market Position and Competition - Lucid's pricing strategy shows the Air is cheaper than Tesla's Model S, but the Gravity SUV is more expensive than the Model Y, limiting its appeal to price-sensitive consumers [9]. - The discontinuation of the Model S by Tesla may not significantly benefit Lucid, as it lacks a competitor to the Model 3 priced at $36,990 [10].

2026-02-04 10:33:07 作者：狼叫兽 据报道，近日，特斯拉(TSLA.US)披露了其人形机器人Optimus的产品迭代、量产规划、产线调整等多项关键进展。 Optimus 3一季度首发 Optimus 3能力极强，是通用型机器人，外观高度接近人类，这一设计也更利于其学习人类的工作方式，是特斯拉面 向规模化落地的关键版本。 同时，马斯克强调，特斯拉Optimus在能力上会显著领先中国研发的同类机器人，在智能、机电灵巧性上都具备优 势，尤其是机器人手部设计这一行业难点上。 小鹏机器人IRON官宣线下互动 1月30日消息，小鹏汽车(XPEV.US)机器人官微宣布，全新一代小鹏机器人IRON将开启首次线下互动。 据了解，IRON曾在去年11月举行的第七届小鹏科技日上首次公开亮相，IRON搭载小鹏自研物理世界大模型体系，融 合VLT、VLA、VLM三大核心能力，实现对环境的实时感知、理解与反馈。 由于其身材纤细、踩着猫步，行走姿态酷似真人，引发部分网友质疑其是否由真人假扮。此后，在小鹏X9超级增程 技术发布会上，小鹏再次正面回应"机器人内藏真人"的争议，并在IRON通电运行状态下，现场剪开其腿部覆盖件， ...

Group 1 - Elon Musk's team has secretly visited multiple Chinese photovoltaic companies to assess projects involving equipment, silicon wafers, and battery components, focusing on heterojunction and perovskite technology routes [1] - During the Davos Forum, Musk announced that SpaceX and Tesla plan to establish a combined photovoltaic capacity of 200GW per year in the U.S. within three years, with part of the capacity directed towards space photovoltaic component production [3] - Musk expressed strong support for space photovoltaics, predicting that solving energy issues in space will soon enable the deployment of AI data centers, with a goal of launching 100GW of solar-powered AI satellites [5] Group 2 - The increased focus of Tesla and SpaceX on photovoltaic technology suggests that Chinese photovoltaic companies may play a more critical role in the global photovoltaic supply chain, contributing significantly to global energy transition efforts [6]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk has integrated his business ventures, including social media, AI startups, satellite internet, and rocket manufacturing, under one umbrella, raising questions about the potential inclusion of Tesla in this consolidation [1] Group 1: Potential Mergers and IPOs - There are speculations about a possible merger between SpaceX and Tesla, with analysts divided on the likelihood of such a deal occurring soon [2] - SpaceX is reportedly considering an IPO around mid-June, potentially raising up to $50 billion, which could be the largest IPO in history, with an expected valuation of $1.5 trillion [2] - Analysts from Baird suggest that the acquisition of xAI may delay any potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla in the short term due to the focus on integration efforts [2] Group 2: Collaborative Efforts - Tesla and SpaceX have already begun collaborating, with SpaceX set to pay Tesla $2.5 million for various agreements between 2024 and 2025, while Tesla will pay SpaceX $800,000 for the use of an aircraft [3] - xAI has invested over $620 million in Tesla's Megapack batteries for powering its data centers, and Tesla has integrated xAI's Grok chatbot into its electric vehicles and humanoid robots [3] Group 3: Opinions on Integration - Analysts believe that the relationship between Tesla and xAI is crucial for Tesla's long-term success due to the synergistic effects of data, software, hardware, and manufacturing [4] - Some experts view Tesla's energy business as a potential buffer for operational cash flow, allowing for the repurposing of automotive production lines for robotics and SpaceX's rockets [4] - Concerns exist regarding the potential dilution of existing shareholders' equity if Tesla needs to issue more stock for a successful merger with SpaceX, which could lead to stock sales by institutional investors worried about profit uncertainties from space travel and communication ventures [4]