Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a decline on Tuesday, primarily driven by a sell-off in technology stocks, leading to significant drops in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices. Investors are becoming increasingly cautious about the returns on investments related to artificial intelligence [2][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 166.67 points, or 0.34%, closing at 49,240.99 points. The S&P 500 dropped by 58.63 points, or 0.84%, to 6,917.81 points, while the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 336.92 points, or 1.43%, to 23,255.19 points, nearly erasing all gains made since the beginning of the year [2][3] Technology Sector Performance - Major technology stocks faced pressure, with Nvidia down 2.84%, Microsoft down 2.87%, and Alphabet's Class A and C shares falling by 1.16% and 1.22%, respectively. Amazon saw a decline of 1.79%, while Broadcom dropped by 3.26% [3][4] - The S&P 500 technology sector fell over 2%, marking it as the worst-performing sector among the 11 major sectors. The S&P 500 software and services index has seen a continuous decline for five consecutive days, with a total drop of 12.8%, the largest five-day decline since March 2020 [5] AI Investment Sentiment - Market sentiment towards AI investments is deteriorating, with investors increasingly demanding proof of profitability to justify substantial capital expenditures. This shift is evident as Microsoft shares plummeted last week, while Meta rebounded strongly after its earnings report, indicating a growing distinction in market expectations for high investment versus high growth [4][5] - Concerns are rising regarding competition and business model disruptions in the legal, data analysis, and professional services sectors due to advancements in AI, as demonstrated by the significant stock price drops of companies like RELX and Wolters Kluwer, which fell over 10% [5] Company-Specific Developments - AMD reported better-than-expected quarterly results but provided cautious guidance for the next quarter, predicting a sequential revenue decline of about 5%, despite a year-over-year increase of approximately 32% [6] - Walmart's stock rose over 2%, driven by growth in its digital business and new customer acquisition, marking its market capitalization surpassing $1 trillion for the first time [3] Broader Economic Context - Amid the stock market pressure, US Treasury bonds attracted safe-haven buying, with the two-year Treasury yield falling by 0.2 basis points to 3.568% and the ten-year yield down by 1 basis point to 4.268% [6] - The market anticipates a delay in the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut, now expected in June, influenced by improving economic data, although this is contingent on upcoming employment data [7]

早盘提示 Morning session notice 美国回归门罗主义，在全球收缩，将对全球经济、美债、美股、美元、贵金属、 工业金属等大类资产产生颠覆式深远影响。 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 4 日 星期三 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 沃什的降息+缩表组合，表明美联储货币政策将重大转向，将对权益类资产产 生强烈的流动性收缩预期。 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | 1、特朗普明确表态，要求对美联储主席鲍威尔的刑事调查"进行到底"。市场担 | | | | | 忧，特朗普对鲍威尔的穷追猛打，可能导致沃什无法顺利接任联储主席一职。此前 | | | | | 共和党参议员 Thom Tillis 警告，"不停止调查就阻挠新美联储主席提名"。 | | | | | 2、对冲基金疯狂逃离软件股，私募股权板块遭遇抛售潮。巴克莱警告 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 特斯拉：国产Model 3全系交付周期为2-4周，Model Y长续航版本交付周期为4-6周、后轮驱动版本交付周 期为1-3周，Model YL交付周期为2-4周；Model 3全系可享8,000元限时保险补贴+7年超低息金融政策， Model Y全系享7年超低息金融政策，Model YL享5年0息金融政策。新势力：1）理想：L6交付周期维持1- 3周，MEGA交付周期维持1-4周，i8/L7交付周期维持2-4周，L9交付周期缩短至1-3周（vs. 1月为1-5 周），L8交付周期缩短至1-3周（vs. 1月为1-4周），i6宁德时代电池版本交付周期维持19-22周、欣旺达电 池版本交付周期缩短至4-7周；1月理想L7/L8/ ...

周二美股成交额第1名英伟达收跌2.84%，成交363.81亿美元。至此英伟达已连续第三个交易日下跌。 昨日有报道称英伟达计划向OpenAI投入1000亿美元的计划已陷入停滞，因公司内部对OpenAI的商业模 式和长期竞争态势产生严重疑虑。 不过英伟达CEO黄仁勋周二表示，公司对OpenAI的投资计划仍"按部就班推进"。 "此事完全不存在争议，相关说法纯属无稽之谈，" 黄仁勋称，"我们十分乐意与OpenAI合作。"黄仁勋 同时表示，英伟达将参与OpenAI的下一轮融资。他称这轮融资将成为"历史上规模最大的私人融资"。 他还补充道，英伟达会考虑参与OpenAI未来的所有融资轮次，并希望参与OpenAI最终的首次公开募 股。 第2名微软收跌2.87%，成交247.46亿美元。至此该股已经连续四个交易日下跌，今年迄今已下跌约 15%。该公司近日公布了第四季度财报，这家科技巨头在营收和盈利两方面均超出市场预期，然而财报 发布后其股价大幅下跌。 第3名特斯拉收高0.04%，成交236.97亿美元。据央视新闻消息，当地时间2月3日，法国巴黎检察院表 示，当天已对美国企业家马斯克旗下社交媒体平台X位于法国的办公场所展开搜查。 ...

Core Insights - The article expresses skepticism about Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) as an investment due to its high valuation and speculative nature [1] - It emphasizes the importance of observing megatrends and technological advancements to identify potential investment opportunities [1] - The focus is on the significance of fundamentals, leadership quality, and product pipeline in investment decisions [1] Group 1 - The author believes that understanding macrotrends and emerging technologies is crucial for investment insights [1] - The article highlights the challenges in identifying which companies will capitalize on opportunities presented by evolving technologies [1] - The author has experience in evaluating startups and emerging industries, indicating a background in assessing investment potential [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that while personal interests in megatrends are important, fundamentals and technical analysis are essential for uncovering investment opportunities [1]

Core Insights - The article expresses skepticism about Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) as an investment due to its high valuation and speculative nature [1] - It emphasizes the importance of observing megatrends and technological advancements to identify investment opportunities [1] - The focus is on the significance of fundamentals, leadership quality, and product pipeline in investment decisions [1] Group 1: Investment Perspective - The author is not a fan of Tesla as an investment due to its perceived high valuation and speculative characteristics [1] - There is a belief that understanding megatrends can provide insights into societal advancements and investment opportunities [1] - The article highlights the challenge of identifying which companies will capitalize on emerging opportunities [1] Group 2: Analytical Approach - The author has experience in evaluating startups and emerging industries, indicating a background in assessing new market trends [1] - There is a focus on marketing and business strategy for medium-sized companies and startups, suggesting a practical approach to investment analysis [1] - The importance of combining macrotrends with fundamental analysis is emphasized as a way to uncover investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent earnings reports from the Magnificent Seven tech companies have created mixed signals in the market, particularly due to concerns over high capital expenditures related to AI investments, leading to significant stock price fluctuations [1][2][11]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Microsoft reported a capital expenditure of $37.5 billion for the quarter, which raised investor concerns despite beating earnings expectations, resulting in a nearly 12% drop in its stock [2][11]. - ServiceNow also experienced a 12% decline in its stock price despite beating earnings and raising subscription guidance, reflecting broader anxiety about AI spending [2]. - Meta Platforms saw a 10% increase in its stock after demonstrating effective AI investment in ad targeting, while Tesla managed to exceed Wall Street expectations [3][11]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The overall market, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq, experienced a decline, with major indices continuing to fall after mixed earnings results [1][2]. - Apple reported record revenue for its fiscal first quarter, but its stock fell due to concerns raised by CEO Tim Cook regarding AI data center buildouts affecting the memory chip market [3][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming earnings reports from Alphabet and Amazon, which are projected to have a combined capital expenditure of $500 billion for 2026, will be critical in determining if these investments translate into bottom-line growth [5][11]. - The consumer sector will also be tested with reports from companies like Chipotle, Uber, and Yum! Brands, following strong performance from Starbucks [6][11]. - Current S&P 500 EPS growth for Q4 2025 stands at 11.9%, with 75% of companies beating EPS estimates, although this is slightly below historical averages [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Uber Technologies is set to report its fourth-quarter financial results, with a focus on its ride-hail and Uber Eats businesses, as well as future plans for robotaxis [1] Earnings Estimates - Analysts expect Uber to report fourth-quarter revenue of $14.31 billion, an increase from $11.96 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Earnings per share are anticipated to be 78 cents, up from 23 cents per share in the previous year's fourth quarter [2] - The company has consistently beaten revenue estimates in two consecutive quarters and in eight of the last ten quarters overall [2] Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Wedbush analysts advise "incremental caution" regarding the mobility and delivery sector, maintaining a Neutral rating and a price target of $78 for Uber [4] - Other analysts have provided various ratings and price targets, including: - Needham: Buy rating with a price target of $109 - Stifel: Buy rating, price target lowered from $122 to $105 - Guggenheim: Buy rating with a price target of $135 - KeyBanc: Overweight rating, price target lowered from $110 to $105 - BTIG: Buy rating with a price target of $100 [9] Key Items to Watch - The upcoming financial results will focus on mobility and delivery, with particular interest in future financial guidance and robotaxi developments [5] - Uber has established partnerships with companies like Waymo, Lucid, Nvidia, and Weride for its robotaxi initiatives [5] - The robotaxi sector is expected to grow, but competition from Tesla could impact Uber's market position [6] - Investors are keen for more insights on robotaxis, as comments during the earnings call could influence stock performance [8] Recent Performance - In the third quarter, Uber reported year-over-year gains in mobility and delivery, with delivery revenue increasing by 29% [10] - Uber shares have seen a decline of 4.1% to $77.51, with a year-to-date decrease of 6.4% in 2026, but an increase of over 15% in the last 52 weeks [11]

Core Viewpoint - Speculation surrounding a potential merger between SpaceX and xAI is generating renewed interest in the implications for Tesla stock, particularly in the context of AI integration across Musk's companies [1] Group 1: Company Developments - SpaceX has announced the acquisition of Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, xAI, in anticipation of a potential initial public offering (IPO) for SpaceX stock in the middle of the year [1]

Core Insights - Elon Musk's SpaceX has acquired xAI, aiming to leverage solar power for AI applications and accelerate humanity's future, with a combined valuation of $1.25 trillion [2][7] - The anticipated IPO from Musk could rival the largest tech companies in the U.S., potentially boosting Tesla's valuation as it holds stakes in xAI [3][6] Group 1 - The merger of SpaceX and xAI is positioned to create a mega company focused on space-based resources for AI development [2] - The deal has sparked speculation about a possible merger between Tesla and SpaceX/xAI, with analysts suggesting a growing likelihood of such an event [5][6] - Prediction markets indicate a 24% probability of a Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement before June 30, up from previous lower estimates [7] Group 2 - The financial implications of the SpaceX-xAI deal include expectations for the largest IPO by market cap this year, with traders placing an 88% probability on this outcome [7] - The news has revitalized interest in space-based data centers and the potential integration of Tesla into Musk's broader vision [2][4]