Summary of TSMC Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC) - **Ticker**: 2330.TT - **Rating**: Outperform - **Price Target**: NT$1,444.00 (approximately USD 290.00) Key Industry Insights - **AI Demand**: TSMC reported stronger AI demand compared to three months ago, indicating a positive trend in the semiconductor industry driven by AI applications [2][43] - **Capex Guidance**: TSMC narrowed its 2025 capital expenditure (capex) guidance to the upper half of its previous range, now set at USD 40-42 billion, reflecting a cautious approach to ensure demand sustainability [2][20] - **Revenue Growth**: TSMC's revenue for 4Q25 is expected to show a year-over-year growth of approximately 35% at the midpoint of guidance, despite being sub-seasonal [10][11] Financial Performance - **3Q25 Results**: TSMC's revenue reached NT$989.9 billion, a 6% increase quarter-over-quarter, with gross profit rising by 7.5% to NT$588.5 billion [9] - **Margins**: Gross margin improved to 59.5%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, attributed to cost reductions and higher utilization rates [17] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Reported EPS for 3Q25 was NT$17.44, a 13.6% increase from the previous quarter [9] Market Dynamics - **Customer Behavior**: TSMC noted no significant changes in customer behavior, although the revenue guidance for 4Q25 is considered sub-seasonal, indicating potential market fluctuations [11] - **Geographic Revenue Contribution**: North America accounted for 76% of TSMC's total revenue in 3Q25, while revenue from China decreased sequentially [37][40] Technology and Capacity - **Node Technology**: The combined revenue from 3nm, 5nm, and 7nm technologies contributed to 74% of TSMC's total revenue in 3Q25, highlighting the importance of advanced nodes in driving revenue [31] - **HPC Revenue**: High-Performance Computing (HPC) revenue grew by 5% quarter-over-quarter, indicating strong demand in this segment [23] Investment Implications - **Outperform Rating**: Analysts maintain an Outperform rating for TSMC, with a price target of NT$1,444.00, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory and market position [43][48] - **Risks**: Potential risks include market-wide multiple contraction, competition from Intel, and geopolitical uncertainties that could impact operations and demand [49] Additional Insights - **Cost Management**: TSMC's ability to manage costs effectively has been a significant factor in maintaining margins despite external pressures [9][17] - **Future Outlook**: The company is expected to continue its cautious approach to expansion and capex, balancing growth opportunities with cost management [3][20]

及半导体设备公司如北方华创、中微公司和盛美等关注度较高。这些企业在供 应链上有望受益于中美贸易战。 台积电 20251019 摘要 台积电预计 2024-2029 年 AI 需求增长率中位数为 45%，或在明年春 节前上调指引。CoWoS 产能仍不足，月产能 10 万片对应 150 万颗英 伟达 GB200 芯片，需求或需扩展至 110 万片。 美国投资者对中国市场兴趣回升，受美股高估值、美元贬值及对中国科 技企业全球竞争力的关注驱动，尤其关注小米、宁德时代及北方华创等 半导体设备公司。 全球 AI 产业是否存在泡沫风险业内意见分歧，黄仁勋等乐观，IMF、美 联储等警示风险，微软相对谨慎。市场对 AI 未来发展预期存在差异。 台积电未来发展前景乐观，客户包括英伟达、AMD 及 Google、Meta 等终端客户将带动需求增长。公司正积极扩展先进工艺及封装产能，其 他收入同比增速保持在 50-60%之间。 制造业回流美国速度较慢，产业链配套尚未完全到位。凤凰城正逐步成 为新兴硅谷，但总体来看，完善配套设施并实现全面回流仍需时间。 美国数据中心建设速度快，与办公室建设速度接近甚至超过，反映了硅 基生物逐渐取代碳基 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that TSMC's strong financial results and outlook for AI demand indicate a sustained strong growth trajectory for AI-related sectors [6][8] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant growth, with TSMC reporting a 30.3% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3 2025, driven by advanced process technologies [6] - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in consumer electronics, particularly with the introduction of new foldable smartphones and the high demand for AI infrastructure [9] Market Performance - The electronic industry index fell by 7.14% during the week of October 13-17, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 by 4.91 percentage points [11] - Over the past 12 months, the electronic industry has seen a relative return of 37.8% and an absolute return of 56.9% [3][11] Valuation Metrics - The electronic sector's Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio (TTM, excluding negative values) is 61.09X, down 4.78X from the previous week, and is positioned at the 43.59th percentile over the past decade [5][12] - The Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is 4.86X, also reflecting a decrease, and is at the 58.57th percentile historically [5][12] Industry Dynamics - TSMC's revenue from advanced processes accounted for over 70% of its total wafer revenue, with a notable focus on high-performance computing (HPC) which represented 57% of its revenue [6] - The report anticipates continued strong demand for AI, with TSMC increasing its capital expenditure forecast for 2025 to between $40 billion and $42 billion [6][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in AI infrastructure, edge SOCs, and the supply chain for foldable smartphones, maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [9]

Group 1 - Oracle's revenue for Q1 FY2026 increased by 12% to $14.9 billion, with cloud computing revenue growing by 28% to $7.2 billion, while software revenue declined by 1% to $5.7 billion, indicating mixed performance [2] - Oracle signed four contracts worth several billion dollars with three clients in Q1, and expects to sign more contracts in the coming months, with remaining performance obligations (RPO) potentially exceeding $500 billion [2] - Following the earnings report, Oracle's stock surged by nearly 36%, marking the largest single-day increase in its history, adding $244 billion to its market capitalization [2] Group 2 - The market is betting on companies increasing AI investments and building data centers, with Nvidia and OpenAI leading the charge, the former valued at approximately $4.4 trillion and the latter exceeding $800 billion [3] - Concerns are rising among investors and entrepreneurs about a potential AI bubble, which could become a significant global economic risk [5] Group 3 - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman acknowledged the presence of some bubble-like conditions in the AI sector but distinguished OpenAI's genuine advancements in technology and business development [6][7] - OpenAI is involved in complex partnerships with major tech companies, including Nvidia and AMD, which intertwine capital and computational resources, potentially inflating revenue expectations [8] Group 4 - Experts are wary of the potential distortion of true demand in the AI sector due to complex financing arrangements, with some transactions being labeled as "round-tripping" or "vendor financing" [9] - Despite rapid revenue growth, OpenAI has yet to achieve profitability, raising questions about the sustainability of its business model [10] Group 5 - TSMC reported better-than-expected earnings and raised its revenue growth forecast for 2025 to nearly 35%, signaling strong AI demand [10] - TSMC's chairman noted robust demand from AI clients, with a significant increase in token processing volumes, indicating high-frequency adoption of AI technologies [10] Group 6 - Historical parallels are drawn between the current AI investment surge and the late 1990s internet bubble, with concerns that excessive capital inflow may outpace actual demand [12] - The AI sector faces a dilemma of whether to expand production or adopt a wait-and-see approach, which tests the judgment of management and investors [13]

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on domestic AI development-driven sectors such as servers and IDC, as well as overseas AI development-driven sectors like servers and optical modules [5] Core Insights - OpenAI is expanding its collaboration and accelerating computing power investments, including a partnership with Broadcom for a 10GW custom AI accelerator, aiming for deployment by the second half of 2026 and completion by the end of 2029 [1] - The demand for optical modules is expected to increase significantly, with projections of 50 million, 75 million, and 100 million units needed in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] - TSMC reported a higher-than-expected profit margin of 59.5% for Q3 2025, driven by strong AI demand, and provided a positive revenue guidance for Q4 2025 [1] - Domestic AI applications are entering a large-scale commercialization phase, as indicated by the increase in daily token usage from 120 billion in May 2024 to over 30 trillion by September 2025 [1][3] - The optical communication industry is expected to see growth, as evidenced by Shijia Photon's Q3 2025 revenue of 570 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 103% [1] Summary by Sections Communication Sector - The telecommunications business revenue for the first eight months reached 1,182.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [4][15] - The optical module exports saw a decline of 28.66% year-on-year in August, attributed to domestic companies building factories overseas [4][34] Server Sector - The server index decreased by 5.85% this week and 8.28% for the month, but OpenAI's initiatives are expected to drive demand for server chips [2][7] - TSMC's high profit margins and capacity expansion are expected to support the production of AI chips [2][7] Optical Module Sector - The optical module index fell by 7.55% this week and 12.35% for the month, but long-term demand is projected to rise due to significant investments in AI data centers [2][7] IDC Sector - The IDC index decreased by 6.24% this week and 8.91% for the month, but the domestic AI ecosystem is forming a rapidly iterating internal cycle [3][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The demand for AI remains strong, with a focus on the certainty of opportunities in AI hardware [2] - The semiconductor sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 40.91%, while other electronic segments have also shown significant growth [9] - TSMC's Q3 2025 performance exceeded guidance, with revenues of $33.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.8% [23] - The OCP Global Summit showcased numerous AI hardware innovations, indicating a robust market for AI infrastructure [2] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The electronic sector has experienced adjustments, with the semiconductor index down by 6.53% this week [9] - Notable increases in major North American stocks include Apple (+2.86%), Tesla (+6.24%), and Broadcom (+7.61%) [11] TSMC Financial Performance - TSMC reported Q3 2025 revenue of $33.1 billion, exceeding guidance and showing a 10.1% increase from Q2 2025 [23] - Gross margin was 59.5%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, and net profit margin reached 45.7% [23] AI Hardware Innovations - The OCP Global Summit introduced various AI hardware products, including advancements in GPU and AI server technologies [2] - Companies like NVIDIA and Intel announced new products aimed at enhancing AI infrastructure [2] Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks to watch include overseas AI companies such as Industrial Fulian and domestic AI firms like Cambricon and SMIC [3]

北京时间10月18日，据路透社报道，在AI芯片需求加速增长之际，英伟达周五宣布，台积电在其美国亚利桑那州凤凰城半导体制造工厂生产出了首个 Blackwell架构芯片晶圆。 英伟达CEO黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)在周五参观了台积电亚利桑那州工厂，庆祝首个在美国本土生产的英伟达Blackwell晶圆下线，标志着Blackwell已进入量产 阶段。 在庆祝仪式上，黄仁勋与台积电运营副总经理王英郎(Y.L. Wang)共同在Blackwell晶圆上签名，以纪念这一具有里程碑意义的时刻，它象征着全球AI基础设 施的核心引擎如今正在美国本土建造。 "从多个方面讲，这都是一个具有历史意义的时刻，"黄仁勋表示，"这是美国近代史上首次在本土通过最先进的台积电晶圆厂制造出当前最重要的一款芯 片。 英伟达在官方博文中指出，此举"强化了美国的供应链，并将在美国本土建立起将数据转化为智能的AI技术体系，从而确保美国在AI时代的领导地位"。 英伟达表示，台积电亚利桑那工厂将生产包括2纳米、3纳米和4纳米芯片以及A16芯片等先进制程产品，这些技术对于AI、通信和高性能运算等应用至关重 要。 与此同时，这也标志着特朗普政府推动关键芯 ...

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) continues to demonstrate strong performance in the semiconductor industry, particularly driven by AI chip demand, with a significant year-to-date stock increase of approximately 50% [1] Financial Performance - TSMC reported Q3 revenue of $33.1 billion, a 41% increase year-over-year, with earnings per American depositary receipt (ADR) rising 51% to $2.92 [5] - The company's gross margin improved by 170 basis points to 59.5%, while operating margins increased by 310 basis points to 50.6%, both exceeding prior forecasts [6] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3, nodes of 7 nanometers (nm) and under accounted for 74% of TSMC's revenue, up from 69% a year earlier, with the newest 3-nm technology contributing 23% of total wafer revenue [3] - High-performance computing (HPC) revenue remained flat sequentially, while smartphone revenue grew 19% quarter-over-quarter, now representing 30% of total revenue [4] Future Outlook - TSMC projects Q4 revenue between $32.2 billion and $33.4 billion, indicating about 22% year-over-year growth at the midpoint, with gross margins expected between 59% to 61% [7] - The company anticipates mid-30% revenue growth for the full year, up from a previous forecast of 30%, driven by strong AI chip demand and a recovery in other chip markets [7][8] Market Position and Strategy - TSMC is a critical player in the semiconductor supply chain, essential for the manufacturing of advanced chips for companies like Nvidia and Broadcom [2] - The company is committed to expanding its cutting-edge capacity in the U.S., including plans for 2nm and 1.6nm node technologies, despite higher operational costs leading to increased prices [9] Valuation - TSMC is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26 based on analysts' 2026 estimates, which is considered reasonable given the company's growth prospects [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, particularly focusing on AI-related sectors and the semiconductor supply chain, indicating a strong demand trajectory and potential for growth [1][4][28]. Core Insights - TSMC reported strong demand for advanced processes, with Q3 revenue reaching $33.1 billion, a 40.8% year-on-year increase, and net profit of $15.1 billion, up 50% year-on-year. The company raised its full-year revenue growth guidance to around 35% [1]. - The AI revenue CAGR is projected to exceed 45% from 2024 to 2029, driven by a surge in token usage reflecting strong demand for AI computing power [1][4]. - The report highlights a robust demand for AI-related hardware, particularly in the PCB and semiconductor sectors, with expectations for continued high growth in performance and sales [1][4][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Segments 1.1 Consumer Electronics - Apple launched new products, including the iPhone 17 series and AI-related devices, indicating strong market demand and potential for accelerated AI integration in consumer electronics [5][6]. 1.2 PCB - The PCB industry is experiencing high demand, particularly from automotive and industrial sectors, with expectations for sustained growth in Q4 [7]. 1.3 Components - The report notes an increase in demand for passive components, particularly in AI applications, with significant growth in MLCC usage in mobile devices [20]. 1.4 IC Design - The storage segment is expected to see price increases of 10% to 20% in DRAM products due to supply constraints and rising demand from cloud computing and consumer electronics [22][24]. 1.5 Semiconductor Manufacturing - The report emphasizes the trend of domestic semiconductor equipment and materials gaining market share due to geopolitical factors, with a focus on self-sufficiency in the supply chain [25][27]. 2. Key Companies - TSMC remains optimistic about AI demand, with a strong forecast for revenue growth in AI-related sectors [1][28]. - Northern Huachuang is positioned to benefit from domestic semiconductor equipment demand, with expectations for increased market share [30][31]. - Other notable companies include Jiangfeng Electronics, which reported significant growth in ultra-pure target materials, and Zhongwei Company, which is expanding its R&D efforts in advanced semiconductor manufacturing [32][33].

摘要 风险提示 芯片制程发展与良率不及预期 中美科技领域政策恶化 智能手机销量不及预期 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 - AI 应用活跃度方面，海外 Claude 周均环比上升较快，Gemini 回升，国内应用在国庆假期后普遍回暖。技术动态 方面，谷歌升级 AI 视频工具 Flow，新增光影编辑与音频增强功能，并开始向部分用户推送 Gemini 3.0 Pro，引 入"Deep Think"架构，知识库更新至 2025 年 10 月；国内字节跳动发布豆包大模型 1.6，首创分档调节思考长 度，其 lite 版综合使用成本大幅降低 53.3%。 - 台积电第三季度业绩表现优秀，营收和利润率均超预期。公司管理层明确指出，人工智能是当前最强且路径最清 晰的需求主线，相关需求较三个月前进一步走强。公司强调，Token 量的指数级增长要求先进工艺节点不断推进 和能效提升，这正是台积电的核心竞争力所在。无论是 ASIC 还是 GPU 客户，都将采用台积电的代工与先进封装 服务。为满足激增需求，公司将持续通过 CoWoS 扩产以缓解供给紧张。工艺方面，N2 已于本季度末开始量产， N2P 与面向复杂供电的 A16 均计划 ...