Core Viewpoint - The UBS Greater China Conference highlighted the increasing interest of international investors in the Chinese market, driven by China's economic resilience and innovation in sectors like advanced manufacturing and artificial intelligence [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The number of overseas clients has increased, indicating a renewed focus on China as a strategic market for UBS [1]. - By the third quarter of 2025, the underweight of foreign investment in Chinese stocks decreased from -2.5% in 2024 to -1.3%, a 48% year-on-year reduction [1]. - The number of mainland companies listed in Hong Kong reached 111 by the end of 2025, with a total market capitalization of $562.3 billion [1]. Group 2: Growth Opportunities in AI and Technology - UBS's CEO noted that the Asia-Pacific region is poised to benefit from a new wave of growth driven by AI, with significant advancements expected in the Chinese tech sector by 2025 [2]. - China is expected to lead in AI technology, supported by favorable policies that enhance the resilience of the ecosystem [2]. - UBS anticipates that its assets under management in the Asia-Pacific will exceed $1 trillion, with record financial performance in China [2]. Group 3: Stock Market Outlook - UBS's China equity strategy head expressed optimism for the stock market, suggesting that as long as the innovation sector continues to thrive, it will positively impact the overall market [3]. - Historical trends indicate that policy support is a major driver of stock market performance, with ongoing liquidity support from the central bank and backing for the A-share market [3]. - Despite current valuations, Chinese stocks remain attractive compared to global markets, leading to a recommendation for overweighting Chinese equities [3]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - Recent inflows into A-shares have not resulted in overheating, with market sentiment remaining moderately positive [4]. - The combination of improved earnings and valuation recovery is expected to drive further upward movement in the A-share market [4]. - Growth and cyclical styles are favored, as market uptrends typically encourage higher risk-taking, benefiting growth stocks [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The document discusses the global economic outlook, focusing on macroeconomic forecasts and investment strategies across various asset classes, including equities, fixed income, and foreign exchange. Core Economic Insights - **US Core CPI Forecast**: An expected increase of 44 basis points in December, with year-over-year inflation rising from 2.6% to 2.9%. Projections suggest core inflation could reach 3.2% by May [3][4] - **Global Economic Growth**: Projected real GDP growth for 2026 is 3.2% globally, with the US at 2.1%, China at 4.5%, and the Eurozone at 1.1% [8] - **Impact of AI**: AI is driving significant investment growth in the US, contributing to half of global trade growth and most equity returns [8] Investment Strategies - **Equities**: The luxury sector has been upgraded to overweight for the first time in four years due to improved earnings growth expectations and favorable valuation metrics [13] - **Emerging Markets**: China, Brazil, and local debt in emerging markets are expected to outperform, supported by anticipated housing stimulus in China [5][14] - **Fixed Income**: Long positions in US 10-year Treasuries are maintained, with expectations of spread tightening between US 30-year bonds and SOFR [9][10] Currency and Trade Recommendations - **FX Trades**: Recommendations include long USDJPY, short EURAUD, and selling rallies in EURSEK and EURNOK. A dual digital trade is suggested to capture GBP and EUR strength against the USD [4][12] - **Interest Rate Forecasts**: Expected yields for 10-year bonds by the end of 2026 are projected at 4.00% for US Treasuries and 3.00% for Bunds [12][19] Market Sentiment and Risks - **Consumer Sentiment**: Improved consumer sentiment is noted, with a supportive push from the US administration towards housing affordability [16] - **Default Rates**: Default rates for high-yield and leveraged loans are converging, indicating potential fragility in the market [16] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing US policy uncertainty and potential geopolitical events pose risks to market stability and asset returns [20] Additional Insights - **Valuation Metrics**: The luxury sector's price-to-earnings ratios are close to normal levels, indicating potential for growth as high-end luxury remains less disrupted [13] - **Commodity Prices**: Expectations of stronger housing stimulus in China are supporting commodity prices, despite some markets being technically overbought [5][14] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the economic outlook, investment strategies, and market sentiment while addressing potential risks and opportunities in various sectors.

Core Viewpoint - UBS predicts a low single-digit decline in wholesale and a mid single-digit decline in retail for the domestic automotive market this year [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The automotive industry has seen excessive establishment of companies due to high growth expectations and capital market support, leading to intensified competition and innovation, but also to chaotic competition harming consumer rights [1] - The market is currently experiencing a "de-involution" trend, with a temporary stabilization in pricing, although companies are adjusting configurations and renaming models to indirectly alter prices [1] - The average price of passenger vehicles is on a downward trend, with over half of dealers operating at a loss, indicating a restructuring of profits and market dynamics [2] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The automotive industry is facing challenges such as the decline of purchase tax incentives, adjustments in replacement subsidies, and rising raw material costs [2] - The industry’s profit margin remains low at approximately 4.4%, highlighting the need for increased industry concentration to address these issues [2] - UBS forecasts an 8% growth in the new energy vehicle segment this year, despite the overall challenges facing the market [2]

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Group 1: Market Outlook - The 26th UBS Greater China Conference (GCC) focused on the interaction between China's mid-term economic trends and global growth, trade patterns, and capital market cycles, emphasizing advancements in technology and AI [1] - UBS analysts express optimism for the Chinese stock market in 2026, citing macroeconomic improvements, strong policy support, market structure optimization, and continued capital inflows as key factors [2][3] - The Chinese stock market is expected to experience a significant rebound, with a projected 10% growth in earnings per share (EPS) driven by revenue growth, share buybacks, and improved profit margins [3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Specific sectors identified for investment include artificial intelligence (especially hardware and semiconductor equipment), leading internet companies, brokerage firms, and companies with strong international capabilities [3] - The A-share market is predicted to see an 8% growth in earnings, with a shift in growth drivers from financial to non-financial enterprises [3][4] - The valuation of A-shares remains attractive, with room for recovery despite recent market increases, supported by healthy levels of financing and investor activity [4] Group 3: IPO and M&A Trends - The IPO and M&A markets in China are expected to remain active in 2026, driven by improved liquidity and investor confidence [6][8] - The Hong Kong IPO market is projected to exceed 2025 levels, supported by a robust pipeline of over 300 companies and a return of foreign cornerstone investors [7] - The M&A market is anticipated to grow, with trends including increased focus from private equity on European assets and strategic evaluations by multinational companies of their Chinese operations [8] Group 4: Economic Insights - China's GDP growth is forecasted at approximately 4.5% for 2026, with inflation expected to rise and a recovery in investment driven by infrastructure spending [9] - The consumption sector is poised for long-term growth due to improved social security systems and consumption rate targets set in the 14th Five-Year Plan [9] Group 5: AI Industry Development - The Chinese AI industry is expected to continue its rapid development, with advancements in model capabilities and application scenarios anticipated in 2026 [10][12] - The focus will be on enhancing domestic chip performance and optimizing the efficiency of AI model development through collaboration between hardware and software [12] - Concerns about an "AI bubble" in China are deemed low, as leading firms rely on existing cash flows for R&D and maintain a pragmatic approach to capital expenditures [12]

Group 1: Core Views from the UBS Greater China Conference - The 26th UBS Greater China Conference (GCC) held in Shanghai focused on the theme "New Frontiers: Recognizing Changes and Seeking Growth," discussing the interaction between China's mid-term economic trends and global growth, trade patterns, and capital market cycles [2] - The conference emphasized China's positioning in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry chain and the continuous breakthroughs in technology [2] Group 2: Optimistic Outlook for the Chinese Stock Market - UBS analysts expressed optimism for the Chinese stock market in 2026, citing improvements in the macro environment, strong policy support, optimized market structure, and ongoing capital inflows as key factors [5][6] - The Chinese stock market is expected to experience another "bumper year," supported by strong innovation capabilities, supportive policies, ample liquidity, and potential capital inflows [6] - The correlation between macroeconomic performance and stock market performance has weakened due to structural optimization, with innovation-driven sectors expected to lead market growth [6][7] Group 3: Earnings Growth and Sector Preferences - Earnings per share (EPS) in the market are projected to grow by approximately 10% in 2026, driven by revenue growth, share buybacks, and improved profit margins [7] - The A-share market is expected to see an earnings growth of around 8%, with a shift in growth drivers from the financial sector to a broader range of non-financial enterprises [7][8] - Analysts favor sectors such as AI (especially hardware and semiconductor equipment), leading internet companies, brokerage firms, and companies with strong international capabilities [7][8] Group 4: IPO and M&A Market Trends - The IPO market in Hong Kong is expected to remain active in 2026, with over 300 companies having disclosed listing applications, indicating a potential increase in financing scale compared to 2025 [10] - The M&A market is anticipated to continue its active trend, driven by domestic state-owned enterprise restructuring, large private equity transactions, and a rebound in cross-border M&A activities [11] - Private equity funds are increasingly focusing on European consumer goods, specific healthcare, and high-end manufacturing assets, providing opportunities for local investors [11] Group 5: Macroeconomic Outlook - China's GDP growth is projected to be around 4.5% in 2026, with inflation expected to recover and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasted to rise to approximately 0.4% [14] - The investment sector is likely to see a recovery in infrastructure investment, supported by low base effects and policy coordination [14] Group 6: Developments in the AI Industry - The Chinese AI industry is expected to continue its significant progress, with improvements in model capabilities and the expansion of application scenarios [16][17] - The probability of an "AI bubble" similar to that in overseas markets is considered low, as leading model manufacturers rely on existing business cash flows for R&D support [18] - The commercialization of AI agents is expected to develop gradually, with a three-stage evolution process anticipated [18]

Group 1: Market Outlook - UBS analysts express optimism for the Chinese stock market in 2026, citing macroeconomic improvements, strong policy support, optimized market structure, and continued capital inflows as key factors [2][3] - The Chinese stock market is expected to experience a significant rebound, with a projected 10% growth in earnings per share (EPS) driven by revenue growth, share buybacks, and improved profit margins [3] - The A-share market is anticipated to see an 8% growth in earnings, with a shift in growth drivers from financial sectors to a broader range of non-financial enterprises [3][4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities identified include artificial intelligence (especially hardware and semiconductor equipment), leading internet companies, brokerage firms, and companies with strong international capabilities [3][4] - The growth potential in cyclical sectors, such as certain metals and chemicals, is highlighted, alongside a cautious outlook for consumer sectors that may require more time to show substantial improvement [4] Group 3: IPO and M&A Trends - The IPO market in Hong Kong is expected to remain active in 2026, with over 300 companies having submitted listing applications, and a potential increase in financing scale compared to 2025 [6][7] - The M&A market is projected to continue its active trend, driven by domestic state-owned enterprise restructuring, large private equity transactions, and a resurgence in cross-border M&A activities [8] Group 4: Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth is forecasted at approximately 4.5% for 2026, with inflation expected to rise to around 0.4% and a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [9] - The structural rebalancing theme is emphasized, with expectations for infrastructure investment to recover, supporting overall investment cycles [9] Group 5: AI Industry Development - The Chinese AI industry is set for significant advancements in 2026, with improvements in model capabilities and a broader range of application scenarios anticipated [10][11] - The focus on practical applications of AI, such as cloud services and advertising, is expected to drive commercialization efforts [11] - Concerns about an "AI bubble" in China are deemed low, as leading model firms rely on existing business cash flows for R&D, and there is a pragmatic approach to capital expenditures [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of an AI bubble in China is significantly lower compared to the United States, with no clear signs of an "AI bubble" in the short term, alleviating concerns in the capital markets [1][3] Group 1: AI Industry Analysis - Chinese model manufacturers are less prone to circular financing compared to their foreign counterparts, relying on healthy and sustainable cash flows from their parent companies to support AI research and investment [3] - China's capital expenditure strategy in the AI sector is more pragmatic and cautious, focusing on the return on investment and emphasizing research and development efficiency [3] Group 2: Data Center Management - Regulatory measures in China are controlling the excessive construction of data centers, with major companies adopting a steady and gradual approach to building their own data centers [3] - The average utilization rate of data centers in China has remained high and stable since the second half of 2024, supported by genuine AI-related workloads [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the development of the AI industry in China, with early successes like DeepSeek significantly increasing global attention on Chinese AI [3] - The positive impact on the industry is expected to influence capital markets, prompting foreign investors to reassess Chinese assets, particularly in the technology sector [3] - The entire AI industry chain in China is projected to continue developing positively in 2026, building on the solid foundation established in 2025 [3]

【1月13 - 14日瑞银大中华研讨会：看好北美与大中华区财富创造】1月13日至14日，瑞银集团在上海举办 第26届瑞银大中华研讨会(GCC)。瑞银集团安思杰(Sergio P. Ermotti)致辞称，未来五年，北美与大中华区有 望成全球财富创造最强引擎。亚太区是瑞银增长关键市场，去年其在亚太投资资产首破1万亿美元，在中 国获创纪录财务表现。下一步，瑞银将利用多个商业牌照与业务平台，强化投行业务领先地位，拓展财富 与资产管理业务。该行还在推进熊猫债券发行，以支持业务扩张。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 FOL he xun.com 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly betting on Chinese stocks and currency as global uncertainty rises, with major investment firms raising their assessments of China's stock market due to attractive valuations, supportive industrial policies, and optimistic profit outlooks [1][6]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Chinese stock market and the Renminbi have experienced their first simultaneous rise since 2017, with a key index tracking Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies rising over 22% last year, marking it as one of the best-performing major indices globally [4][5]. - The A-share market has reached a four-year high, with the recent trading volume hitting a record 3.65 trillion yuan (approximately 523 billion USD), significantly above the past five-year average daily trading volume of 1.13 trillion yuan [10]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target for the CSI 300 index to 5,200 points, indicating a potential 9% upside from recent closing prices, and has increased its profit growth forecast for China from 4% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 and 2027 [7]. Group 2: Currency Outlook - The Renminbi is expected to strengthen, with predictions of it reaching 6.25 against the USD by the end of 2026, supported by strong exports and trade surpluses [11][12]. - Major financial institutions, including Citigroup and Bank of America, are optimistic about the Renminbi, with forecasts suggesting it could appreciate to 6.8 against the USD this year [11]. - The recent rise in the Renminbi has been linked to improved risk sentiment and returns calculated in USD, which could further support the stock market [4][11]. Group 3: Sectoral Insights - Analysts remain optimistic about various sectors, including healthcare, battery supply chains, and agriculture, with a renewed focus on underperforming sectors like real estate and real estate credit [11]. - The narrative around Chinese artificial intelligence has shifted investor sentiment positively, leading to a potential structural bull market despite economic fundamentals not fully supporting a broad bull run [10][11].