Core Points - Credit Suisse Services AG will pay approximately $511 million to settle a criminal case related to conspiring with American taxpayers to conceal over $4 billion in at least 475 offshore accounts [1][2] - The conspiracy enabled ultra-high-net-worth and high-net-worth individual clients to evade U.S. tax obligations from 2010 to 2021, violating a previous plea agreement made in May 2014 [2] - The company pleaded guilty to conspiracy charges in U.S. District Court and entered into a non-prosecution agreement regarding U.S. accounts booked at Credit Suisse AG Singapore [3] - Credit Suisse AG Singapore held undeclared accounts for U.S. persons, with total assets exceeding $2 billion, from 2014 to June 2023 [4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the global economic landscape, with a focus on the impacts of tariffs and trade policies, particularly between the United States and China, as well as implications for Europe and Asia. Key Points and Arguments Economic Impact by Region 1. **China**: The economy is facing challenges due to a prolonged real estate slump and external tariff shocks, leading to a projected growth rate of approximately 3.5% this year and 3% next year. The focus of policy is on expanding domestic demand, technological development, and continued openness [1][5][7]. 2. **Europe**: Despite trade war impacts, Europe is expected to stabilize through fiscal stimulus and increased defense spending, although short-term uncertainties pose challenges to investment and growth [1][8][9]. 3. **Asia**: Initially showing strong growth, the region is now adversely affected by tariff shocks, particularly in countries like Vietnam and South Korea. Regional economic integration and effective trade agreements are emphasized as necessary responses [1][11][12]. Global Economic Outlook 4. The International Monetary Fund has downgraded global growth forecasts, indicating a trend towards de-Americanization of the global economy, with increased regional integration and localized supply chains [1][21]. U.S.-China Relations and Policy Outlook 5. Structural changes in U.S.-China relations are noted, with tariffs serving as a significant demand shock. The U.S. tariff policy is seen as multifaceted and unclear, while China maintains an open stance in trade negotiations [1][3][6][22]. Tariff Effects 6. Tariffs are identified as a major demand shock, with China heavily reliant on domestic demand to counteract external pressures. Additional fiscal policies equivalent to 1.5%-2% of GDP are anticipated to support the economy [1][7][19]. European Economic Dynamics 7. Europe is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with private investment declining and public investment uncertain. The need for enhanced European integration and competitiveness is highlighted [1][8][9][10]. Asian Economic Resilience 8. Prior to April, Asian economies were predicted to grow at 4.9% this year, with strong domestic consumption and export performance. However, tariff impacts are expected to reduce growth rates significantly [1][11][12][13]. Trade Agreements and Regional Cooperation 9. The need for improved execution of trade agreements in Asia is emphasized, as many small and medium enterprises struggle to utilize existing agreements effectively [1][17]. Long-term Structural Changes 10. The discussion suggests a long-term shift towards regional supply chains and a more fragmented global economy, with implications for trade and security policies [1][22][23]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 11. The potential for the euro to gain a more significant role in the global financial system is discussed, alongside concerns about the stability of the U.S. financial market and the dollar's status as a safe asset [1][24]. 12. The conversation touches on the challenges China faces in balancing domestic economic adjustments with external pressures, including the need for structural reforms and increased foreign investment [1][27][28]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and the implications of ongoing trade tensions.

金十数据5月1日讯，周四金价下跌至两周低点，因贸易紧张局势缓解的迹象增强了风险偏好，降低了黄 金的避险吸引力，同时美元走强也令金价承压。瑞银分析师Giovanni Staunovo表示，"市场仍对美国将 很快与其他国家签署较低关税协议抱有信心，这种乐观情绪加上美元走强，正对金价构成压力。"投资 者等待周五的非农就业报告，以进一步了解美联储的政策方向。Giovanni Staunovo表示，"就业报告疲 弱应会支持美联储今年进一步降息的呼声，并使金价在未来几个月回升至3500美元/盎司。" 瑞银：非农或是黄金重回3500的救命稻草 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Group AG reported a slight decline in net profit for Q1 2025, driven by strong performances in its key divisions despite challenges from increased operating expenses and credit loss expenses [1][2]. UBS' Revenues & Expenses - Total revenues for Q1 2025 decreased by 1.4% year over year to $12.6 billion [2] - Operating expenses rose marginally year over year to $10.3 billion [2] - Total credit loss expenses were reported at $100 million, a decline of 5.6% from the previous year [2] UBS Group Business Divisions' Performance - Global Wealth Management's operating profit before tax increased to $1.4 billion, up from $1.1 billion year over year [3] - Asset Management's operating profit before tax rose by 21.6% to $135 million [3] - Personal & Corporate Banking reported a decrease in operating profit before tax to $607 million, down 37.7% year over year [3] - The Investment Bank unit's operating profit before tax increased by 30.1% to $722 million [3] Non-Core & Legacy Performance - Non-Core & Legacy incurred an operating loss before tax of $391 million, compared to a loss of $46 million in the prior year [4] - Group Items reported an operating loss before tax of $299 million, an improvement from a loss of $320 million in the year-ago quarter [4] UBS' Capital Position - Total assets decreased by 1.4% from the previous quarter to $1.54 trillion [5] - Return on Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital improved to 9.6% as of March 31, 2025, compared to 9% a year earlier [5] - Risk-weighted assets declined by 8.2% year over year to $483.3 billion [5] - CET1 capital decreased by 10.9% year over year to $69.1 billion [5] - Invested assets increased by 5.2% year over year to $6.2 trillion [5] Capital Distribution Update - A dividend of 90 cents per share was approved and paid out to shareholders on April 17, 2025 [6] - UBS completed $0.5 billion in share repurchases in Q1 2025 and plans an additional $0.5 billion in Q2 2025, with a target of up to $2 billion in the second half of 2025 [7] Credit Suisse Integration Progress - UBS is on track to complete the integration of Credit Suisse by the end of 2026 [8] - The consolidation of its branch network in Switzerland has progressed, with 95 branches merged since the merger in July 2024 [9] - UBS realized an additional $0.9 billion in gross cost savings in Q1 2025, with cumulative savings reaching $8.4 billion, representing around 65% of its goal for $13 billion in annualized savings by the end of 2026 [10] Overall Assessment - UBS's inorganic growth efforts are expected to support its top line, with significant progress in the integration of Credit Suisse and a robust capital position [11]

Group 1: Earnings Performance - UBS reported quarterly earnings of $0.51 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.42 per share, but down from $0.52 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 21.43% [1] - The company posted revenues of $12.56 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.28%, although this is a decrease from year-ago revenues of $12.74 billion [2] - Over the last four quarters, UBS has consistently surpassed consensus EPS estimates and revenue estimates [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - UBS shares have increased approximately 0.6% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's decline of -5.5% [3] - The future performance of UBS stock will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the company's earnings outlook [4][6] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.39 on revenues of $11.53 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.84 on revenues of $46.89 billion [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the Banks - Foreign industry is currently in the top 6% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook for stocks within this sector [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which can be tracked by investors [5]

Financial Performance - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were USD 12,557 million, a decrease of 1.4% compared to USD 12,739 million in Q1 2024[16] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 was USD 1,692 million, down 3.6% from USD 1,755 million in Q1 2024[16] - The total comprehensive income for the quarter was USD 3,345 million, a significant recovery from a loss of USD 1,878 million in the previous quarter[34] - Profit before tax increased by USD 257 million, or 23%, to USD 1,359 million, driven by higher total revenues[90] - Total revenues rose by USD 279 million, or 5%, to USD 6,422 million, primarily due to higher recurring net fee income and transaction-based income[91] - Total revenues increased by USD 279m, or 5%, to USD 6,422m compared to the previous year[99] - Operating profit before tax reached USD 1,359m, reflecting an increase of USD 257m from the prior year[99] Cost Management - UBS Group achieved cumulative gross cost savings of USD 8.4 billion by the end of Q1 2025, representing approximately 65% of the target of USD 13 billion in annualized exit rate gross cost savings by the end of 2026[19] - Integration-related expenses for the quarter totaled USD 894 million, a decrease from USD 1,233 million in the previous quarter[36] - Total operating expenses increased by USD 67 million, or 1%, to USD 10,324 million, primarily due to an USD 83 million increase in personnel expenses[40][57] - Operating expenses increased by USD 13 million to USD 5,057 million, mainly due to higher financial advisor compensation[96] Asset Management - Total assets as of March 31, 2025, were USD 1,543,363 million, a decrease from USD 1,606,798 million in Q1 2024[16] - Risk-weighted assets (RWA) decreased by USD 15.3bn to USD 483.3bn in Q1 2025, driven by asset size reductions and Basel III implementation[78] - The CET1 capital ratio remained stable at 14.3% despite a decrease in CET1 capital[79] - Invested assets increased by USD 36 billion to USD 4,218 billion, driven by positive foreign currency effects and net new asset inflows of USD 31.5 billion[97] Capital and Liquidity - The liquidity coverage ratio as of March 31, 2025, was 181.0%, down from 220.2% in Q1 2024[16] - UBS's CET1 capital ratio target is around 14%, which will guide its share repurchase strategy[32] - Common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital decreased to USD 69.152 billion from USD 71.367 billion, primarily due to a net share repurchase effect of USD 3.0 billion[187] - Total going concern capital as of March 31, 2025, is USD 87.837 billion, an increase from USD 87.739 billion as of December 31, 2024[185] Strategic Initiatives - UBS is on track to complete the integration of Credit Suisse by the end of 2026, focusing on client account migrations and infrastructure decommissioning[17] - The company entered into a strategic collaboration with 360 ONE WAM Ltd, acquiring a 4.95% interest and transferring its onshore wealth management business in India[33] - UBS plans to repurchase USD 1 billion of shares in the first half of 2025, with USD 0.5 billion completed in Q1 and an additional USD 0.5 billion planned for Q2[32] Tax and Regulatory - In Q1 2025, the net income tax expense was USD 430m, with an effective tax rate of 20.2%, down from USD 612m and 25.8% in Q1 2024[61] - The company anticipates an effective tax rate of around zero in Q2 2025 due to tax planning measures related to integration[84] - The amendments to the Capital Adequacy Ordinance incorporating final Basel III standards entered into force on January 1, 2025[178] Market and Economic Conditions - Inflation has abated in major Western economies, but concerns regarding future developments remain[166] - The company continues to monitor geopolitical developments and their potential impacts on financial stability[164]

Group 1 - UBS reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of $1.692 billion in the first quarter, exceeding the mean forecast of $1.359 billion from analysts [2] - Group revenue for the same period was $12.557 billion, slightly below analyst expectations of $12.99 billion [2] - The bank is attempting to address significant share declines that have impacted its status as the largest bank in continental Europe [1]

Core Insights - UBS is well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak in the upcoming report, having surpassed earnings estimates consistently in the last two quarters [1] - The average earnings surprise for UBS over the last two quarters is 91.79% [1] Earnings Performance - For the last reported quarter, UBS achieved earnings of $0.23 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.10 per share, resulting in a surprise of 130% [2] - In the previous quarter, UBS was expected to post earnings of $0.28 per share but delivered $0.43 per share, leading to a surprise of 53.57% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for UBS, with a positive Earnings ESP of +6.02%, indicating bullish sentiment among analysts regarding its near-term earnings potential [5][8] - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) suggests a high likelihood of another earnings beat, with historical data showing that such combinations lead to positive surprises nearly 70% of the time [6][8] Earnings ESP Explanation - The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with the Most Accurate Estimate reflecting the latest analyst revisions [7] - A negative Earnings ESP reduces predictive power but does not necessarily indicate an earnings miss [9] Strategic Insights - Companies that beat consensus EPS estimates may not always see their shares gain, and some may remain stable even if they miss estimates, highlighting the importance of checking Earnings ESP before quarterly releases [10]

Core Viewpoint - UBS Wealth Management's Asia-Pacific Investment Director and Macro Economic Head, Hu Yifan, anticipates increased government support for self-sufficiency, domestic technological innovation, and "internal circulation" to boost economic growth [1] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on high-yield defensive state-owned enterprises in the financial, energy, telecommunications, and public utility sectors [1] - The technology sector is particularly promising for online gaming and travel platforms that demonstrate robust cash flow [1] - For medium to long-term investments, leading electric vehicle manufacturers with technological and pricing advantages are favored [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is expected to decline further due to policy uncertainty in the US and questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, despite a potential short-term rebound [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of 06:15 ET, the euro/dollar pair fell by 0.3% to $1.1355, with a cumulative decline of approximately 0.3% for the week, although it has risen over 5.5% this month and nearly 10% year-to-date [3]. - UBS analysts noted that uncertainty surrounding US policies, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve and tariffs, has weakened the dollar and increased risk-averse sentiment among investors, supporting the rise of the euro/dollar pair [3][4]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investor unease has been exacerbated by President Trump's public criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and legal inquiries into his potential removal, contributing to the dollar's decline [3]. - The discussion surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve has added a layer of uncertainty, combined with ongoing trade tensions, increasing tail risks for investors and further pressuring the dollar [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - UBS anticipates that as trade agreements are reached, tariffs will gradually decrease, but ongoing uncertainty may impact US corporate investment and economic growth [4]. - The firm expects the euro/dollar pair to remain supported, predicting limited chances for it to fall to or below 1.10, and projecting a consolidation phase between $1.12 and $1.16 before gradually rising to a target of $1.18 by March 2026 [5][6][7]. - UBS has revised its euro/dollar forecasts upward to $1.14 in June, $1.16 in September, and $1.16 in December, with a long-term target of $1.18 by March 2026, compared to previous forecasts of $1.10, $1.12, $1.12, and $1.14 respectively [7].