人民财讯11月19日电，最新披露的美国13F文件显示，华尔街多家投资机构在今年第三季度加大了对中 国资产的配置力度。其中，中国海外互联网ETF（KWEB）获得美国银行、瑞银集团等大型金融机构， 以及千禧管理（Millennium Management）、索罗斯基金等知名对冲基金的大幅增持。多家机构认为， 中国资产尤其是科技板块的配置价值正显著提升。 （文章来源：上海证券报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recovery momentum of Chinese tech stocks is still in its early stages as China emerges as an AI superpower, attracting Western capital back to the market [1] Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Investors are eager to position themselves as their portfolios lack exposure to the Chinese AI trend [2] - Global investors have begun reallocating funds to some of China's largest and most liquid stocks, benefiting from recent policy stimulus and technological breakthroughs [3] Group 2: Market Comparisons - The recovery of Chinese tech stocks is at an earlier stage compared to the Nasdaq's growth, with lower price-to-earnings ratios compared to similar growth and profitability peers in the U.S. [4] Group 3: Foreign Investment Interest - U.S. investment firms managing global funds are increasingly interested in Chinese stocks, with investors from the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Europe focusing on gaining exposure to China [5] - Middle Eastern investors seek stable long-term capital in China's digital economy, while European investors are drawn to the Chinese market due to a lack of local AI firms [6] Group 4: IPO Activity - The number of Chinese companies applying for IPOs in Hong Kong has reached a high level, covering various sectors including internet, software, AI, robotics, and tech supply chains [6] - Hong Kong IPO fundraising reached HKD 216 billion (approximately USD 27.8 billion) in the first ten months of this year, more than three times the amount from the same period last year [7] Group 5: Positive Outlook from Foreign Investment Banks - Despite a global tech stock pullback, several foreign investment banks are bullish on the Chinese stock market, citing advancements in the tech sector as a key reason [8] - Morgan Stanley predicts further gains in the Chinese stock market by 2026, with target prices for MSCI China Index, Hang Seng Index, and CSI 300 Index set at 90 points, 27,500 points, and 4,840 points respectively [9] - UBS anticipates another prosperous year for the Chinese stock market, driven by favorable factors including innovation, with a target for the MSCI China Index at 100 points, indicating a 14% upside from current levels [10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Focus**: Asian FX and Rates outlook for 2026, with emphasis on macroeconomic trends and investment strategies Core Themes and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Projections**: - Asia's GDP growth is expected to moderate in 2026, with a forecasted real GDP growth of 4.5% y/y for China, which is below the historical average [13][12] - The growth differential between Asia and the US is narrowing, with US growth remaining near trend supported by investment and fiscal easing [13][12] 2. **Currency Performance**: - Asian currencies underperformed in 2025, gaining only about 2% against the USD, while missing out on significant tailwinds [13][12] - The USD/Asia exchange rate is projected to edge 2-3% higher in 2026, influenced by US AI-driven productivity gains and ongoing labor market weaknesses [3][12] 3. **Investment Strategies**: - Recommended trades include long positions in CNH against the CFETS basket, short IDR against INR, and buying USD/THB put spreads [9][16][35] - The strategy emphasizes opportunistic buying of dips in select USD/Asia longs and receiving 10-year KRW and THB swaps against JPY [9][44] 4. **Market Risks**: - Potential risks include an AI bubble scenario that could push USD/Asia 5-6% higher, and a setback in tech stocks that may negatively impact USD against peers [3][12] - The ongoing resident outflows from open capital account economies are a significant concern, with Asian equity flows recovering only half of the losses from Q1 [3][12] 5. **Bond Market Outlook**: - Asian bond yields are expected to decline at a slower pace, with an average 10-year bond yield drop of only 15bps anticipated over the next 12 months [13][12] - Thailand and Korea are expected to lead the decline in bond yields, while other regions may trade sideways [13][12] Additional Important Insights 1. **China's Economic Position**: - China's current account balance has surged to approximately 4% of GDP, the highest since 2009, driven by strong export growth [19][24] - The yuan is considered undervalued, screening as 7% cheap relative to its historical relationship with export shares [22][18] 2. **Indonesia's Economic Challenges**: - Indonesia faces significant headwinds, including a deteriorating current account balance and shrinking FX reserves, which could pressure the IDR [28][29][33] - The central bank's aggressive rate cuts have narrowed the ID/US rate differentials, further complicating the outlook for the rupiah [27][30] 3. **Thailand's BoP Dynamics**: - Thailand's balance of payments is strong, averaging around 4% of GDP, which supports the THB [35][40] - Seasonal tourism inflows are expected to bolster the baht, with historical trends indicating a tendency for the currency to appreciate during year-end [38][42] 4. **Korea's Monetary Policy**: - The Bank of Korea is expected to cut rates further in 2026, with market pricing for hikes seen as premature given the weak domestic demand [45][46] - Financial stability risks are being addressed through macroprudential policies, although the property market remains a concern [47][46] 5. **Key Dates to Watch**: - Important upcoming events include the G20 meeting, China Politburo meetings, and various central bank meetings that could influence market dynamics [8][12] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and strategic recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the Asian FX and Rates landscape for 2026.

Market Overview - On November 18, the A-share market continued to adjust at high levels, with the lithium battery sector experiencing a significant pullback, while real estate and coal sectors also saw notable declines, dragging down the three major stock indices [2] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 3.22% to close at 48,702.98 points, and the South Korean composite index dropped by 3.32% to 3,953.62 points [2] - Domestic commodity futures showed a mixed performance, with coking coal and coke contracts leading the declines [2] - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year bond futures (TL2512) rising by 0.06% to 116.530 yuan [2] Sector Performance - The AI application sector showed resilience, performing well against the market trend, while media and semiconductor ETFs led the market gains, with several ETFs rising over 2% [2] - Conversely, the Huatai-PB ETF and other related ETFs fell by over 4% [2] Institutional Insights - Goldman Sachs' chief China equity strategist, Liu Jinjun, suggested that adjusting investment portfolios based on overall policy trends could yield excess returns [4] - Shenwan Hongyuan's chief analyst, Fu Jingtai, presented a two-phase bullish outlook for A-shares, predicting a peak in early 2026 followed by a comprehensive market rally in the second half of 2026 [4] - UBS's head of China equity strategy, Wang Zonghao, forecasted a prosperous year for the Chinese stock market, driven by favorable factors continuing into 2025 [4] Lithium Market Analysis - Recent reports indicated that the lithium carbonate main contract (LC2601) reached a limit-up price of 95,200 yuan/ton on November 17, driven by supply constraints and low inventory levels [5] - The market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook for lithium prices in November, although caution is advised regarding potential profit-taking after price surges [5] - The energy research team at New Lake Futures highlighted that the demand for energy storage will continue to increase within the lithium consumption structure, emphasizing the need to monitor the impact of rising lithium prices on storage demand growth [4]

Core Insights - UBS Group and Ant International have entered into a strategic partnership to explore blockchain-based tokenized currency innovations to support Ant International's global payment settlement and liquidity management [1] Group 1: Strategic Partnership - The memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed at UBS's flagship office in Singapore [1] - Ant International will utilize UBS Digital Cash, a blockchain payment platform set to pilot in 2024, to enhance its global treasury management [1] Group 2: Payment Solutions - The collaboration aims to improve settlement efficiency, transparency, and security in payment processes [1] - UBS will leverage this technology to optimize cross-border payment solutions for its clients [1] Group 3: Innovation in Tokenized Currency - Both parties will explore innovations in the field of tokenized currency [1] - The solutions will integrate Ant's self-developed blockchain real-time cross-border fund management platform, Whale, to enable real-time multi-currency fund transfers among Ant International's entities [1] - This initiative aims to overcome traditional payment cut-off time limitations and enhance global liquidity management's transparency and flexibility [1]

Core Insights - UBS Group and Ant International have formed a strategic partnership to explore blockchain-based tokenized currency innovations for global payment settlement and liquidity management [1] - The memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed at UBS's flagship office in Singapore [1] Group 1: Strategic Collaboration - Ant International will utilize UBS Digital Cash, a blockchain payment platform set to pilot in 2024, to enhance its global treasury management [1] - The collaboration aims to improve settlement efficiency, transparency, and security in financial transactions [1] Group 2: Technological Integration - UBS will leverage its expertise to optimize cross-border payment solutions for its clients [1] - Both companies will co-develop innovative solutions in the tokenized currency space, integrating Ant's proprietary blockchain real-time cross-border fund management platform, Whale [1] Group 3: Operational Enhancements - The co-created solutions aim to facilitate real-time multi-currency fund transfers among Ant International's entities, overcoming traditional payment cut-off time limitations [1] - The initiative is expected to enhance the transparency and flexibility of global liquidity management [1]

美联储在2025年的首场议息会议上"按兵不动"，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.5%之间。这标志着自2024年9月连续降息以来，美联储首次按下 暂停键。 美联储主席鲍威尔在记者会上表示，"美国通胀水平在过去两年明显缓解，但相对于美联储设定的2%通胀目标'仍然有些高'"。尽管通胀仍保持一定程度的高 企，但市场普遍认为美联储此轮加息周期已告终结。 美联储货币政策正站在十字路口。2025年美联储首次议息会议结果出炉，维持利率不变符合市场普遍预期。 随着美联储货币政策转向的预期升温，全球资金正悄然重新布局，亚洲市场迎来新一轮投资机遇。 与以往不同的是，美联储在声明中删除了"通胀向2%目标回落并取得进展"的表述，取而代之的是对"再通胀"风险增加的评估。 鲍威尔强调，美联储不需要急于调整政策立场，特别是在经济保持强劲的情况下。他明确指出，需要看到 "通胀真正取得进展或劳动力市场出现一些疲 软"，美联储才会考虑做出调整。 美联储内部对于降息路径的分歧日益明显。高盛的基准预测是，美联储将于今年6月和12月进行两次25个基点的降息，然后在2026年降息一次，最终利率为 3.5%至3.75%。 在美联储货币政策转向的 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Investment Bank's China equity strategy head Wang Zonghao predicts a prosperous year for the Chinese stock market in 2026, driven by several favorable factors continuing from 2025, including advancements in innovation, particularly in AI, supportive policies for private enterprises and capital markets, ongoing fiscal expansion, ample liquidity under loose monetary policy, and potential capital inflows from domestic and foreign institutional investors [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - Continued development in innovative sectors, especially AI, is expected to support the market [1] - Supportive policies for private enterprises and capital markets will play a crucial role [1] - Ongoing fiscal expansion and sufficient liquidity due to loose monetary policy are significant factors [1] - Potential capital inflows from domestic and foreign institutional investors are anticipated [1] Group 2: Earnings and Valuation - Unlike the substantial valuation increases seen this year, 2026's stock performance is expected to be more driven by earnings [1] - Projected earnings per share growth of 10% is anticipated, supported by "anti-involution" measures and a decrease in depreciation and amortization expenses [1] - The target for the MSCI China Index by the end of 2026 is set at 100, indicating a 14% upside from current levels [1] Group 3: Sector Preferences - The outlook remains positive for sectors such as internet, hardware technology, and brokerage firms [1] - High-dividend stocks that are experiencing declining yields have been removed from consideration [1] - As global growth improves, some "overseas" stocks are expected to be included in the investment strategy [1]

瑞银（UBS）重申了其对铜的建设性立场，认为即使市场在短期内经历了供需疲软期，铜的结构性紧缩 状况仍然未改。 以Daniel Major为首的瑞银分析师团队认为，现货市场"平衡但并不紧张"，一些细分市场的需求疲软， 以及与关税相关的预购积压，打压了市场情绪。 然而，矿山生产中断、评级下调和投资者对硬资产重新燃起的兴趣使投机性头寸居高不下。 瑞银团队认为，铜的配置在2026年仍然有利。他们预计需求将增长约3%，而矿山和精炼供应增长不到 1%，他们认为这将导致供应短缺、库存减少和基本面更加稳固。 然而，该团队警告称，目前的环境不太可能在短期内支撑铜价持续突破每吨11,000美元。 "由于需求不太可能在短期内产生影响，精炼产量保持不变，LME净头寸上升，我们认为，基本面收紧 不太可能为LME铜在短期内持续突破11,000美元提供催化剂。" 在精炼铜方面，尽管精矿供应紧张，且废铜可用性有限，但产量仍保持惊人的韧性。据中国国家统计局 发布的数据显示，1-9月中国精炼铜产量同比增加10.0%。 SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 包括菲律宾、纳米比亚和智利在内的其他国家的减产不足以抵消这一增长。瑞银 ...

Group 1: Technology Sector Developments - Dell Technologies is collaborating with Texas Advanced Computing Center and NVIDIA to build a new supercomputer named "Horizon," highlighting the demand for advanced computing infrastructure [2] - ARM announced integration of NVIDIA's NVLink Fusion technology into its Neoverse platform, enhancing AI capabilities in its data center chips [3] - Google is expanding access to its AI capabilities by making Gemini features available to all Gmail account holders [3][9] Group 2: Coatings Industry Consolidation - Akzo Nobel is reportedly nearing a merger agreement with Axalta, which could significantly alter the competitive landscape of the global coatings industry [4][9] Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Developments - A US-Saudi Investment Forum is scheduled for November 19, featuring top executives from major corporations, emphasizing the importance of investment ties between the two nations [5][9] - The UN Security Council has endorsed President Trump's Gaza peace plan, which includes deploying international troops, facing opposition from Hamas [6][9] Group 4: Financial Services Sector Changes - UBS has announced significant personnel changes within its O'Connor unit, with Gregory Najarian appointed as Portfolio Manager following the decline of co-heads Rodrigo Trelles and Baxter Wasson to accept positions at Cantor [10][9]