Hong Kong's initial public offering (IPO) market is on track to maintain its status as the world's top fundraising venue next year, underpinned by a pipeline of mega deals and the return of US capital, according to UBS. The Swiss investment bank expects more than HK$300 billion (US$38.5 billion) to be raised from 150 to 200 IPOs in 2026, surpassing the roughly HK$270 billion raised this year, which vaulted the city back to No 1 globally. UBS also forecast that the city's benchmark Hang Seng Index could ...

Group 1: Stripe's Tempo Testnet Launch - Tempo, a payments-focused blockchain backed by Stripe and Paradigm, has launched its public testnet, aimed at facilitating stablecoin payments for mainstream use [1] - The network has added notable partners including Klarna, Kalshi, Mastercard, and UBS, joining previous partners like Deutsche Bank, Visa, and Shopify [1] - Tempo is designed to handle high-volume financial transactions with low fees, instant finality, and native support for stablecoins, charging around one-tenth of a cent per transaction [1] Group 2: ZKsync Lite Sunset Announcement - Matter Labs plans to deprecate ZKsync Lite in early 2026, framing it as a planned sunset for an early proof-of-concept that validated their zero-knowledge rollup design [2] - ZKsync Lite, launched in 2020 for basic token transfers, will continue operating until the shutdown, with funds remaining safe and withdrawals to Ethereum mainnet available [2] - A detailed migration plan and timetable for the shutdown will be published next year [2]

Economic Outlook - UBS expects China's economic growth in 2025 to be between 4.9% and 5%, with better-than-expected performance in the first three quarters and a slowdown in the fourth quarter [1] - The growth target for 2026 is likely to be set at 4.5% to 5%, supported by existing policy measures [1] Consumption and Investment - Consumption growth is projected to be in the range of 3% to 4% in 2026, while investment is expected to recover with an increase in growth rate [1] - Exports are anticipated to show strong resilience, with an average growth rate of 5% in 2025 and a forecasted growth of 2% to 3% in 2026 [1] Capital Markets - The capital market is expected to maintain a stable outlook in the short and medium term, benefiting from profit growth and liquidity support [1] - Technology stocks are anticipated to perform well, with a projected 30% increase in 2025 following a 20% rise in 2024, and current valuations are 30% lower than US stocks [1] Monetary Policy - A reduction in reserve requirement ratios by 50 to 100 basis points and interest rate cuts of 20 to 30 basis points are expected in 2025 [2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is projected to stabilize around 7 by the end of 2025, with a potential decline to approximately 6.9 in the second half of 2026 [2] Artificial Intelligence Sector - Global capital expenditure in the AI sector is expected to reach $350 billion in 2025, increasing to $500 billion in the following year, driven by real market demand [2] - By 2030, revenue in AI-enabled sectors is projected to reach $3.1 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate of 30% [2] Investment Recommendations - UBS recommends focusing on AI, longevity economy, and structural trends in electricity and resources within diversified stock portfolios [3] - AI is expected to significantly enhance global revenue and productivity, with potential automation of one-third of tasks in the labor market [3] - The integration of AI in healthcare presents substantial market growth opportunities across various sectors, including pharmaceuticals and diagnostics [3]

美国参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦致函瑞银集团董事长Colm Kelleher，要求他提供与美国财政部长斯科特·贝森 特就该行可能将总部迁往美国的事宜进行的任何讨论的细节。 瑞银在声明中表示："正如我们反复指出的，我们希望继续以瑞士为基地，作为一家全球性银行成功地 进行运营。瑞银拥有独特、可持续且全球多元化的业务模式，即使在特殊情况下也经受住了考验，充当 坚韧、稳定与繁荣的基石。" 一份12月9日的信函显示，沃伦要求Kelleher提供他与贝森特及其他相关官员最近数月就该议题的互动情 况，包括在该行与瑞士政府围绕资本问题陷入僵持之际，美国方面是否向其提供了迁址的激励措施。 "您是否曾要求，亦或贝森特部长或其他特朗普政府高级别官员曾承诺，在瑞银集团迁至美国后给予优 惠的监管或监督待遇？"参议院银行委员会首席民主党成员沃伦写道。"若有，请说明此类承诺的性 质。" 今年早些时候，在瑞士即将实施的资本改革存在不确定性之际，瑞银持续探索各种选择，Kelleher据报 道与贝森特进行了会谈。媒体报道称，两人私下讨论了搬迁可能的形式，而特朗普政府对欢迎瑞银 持"开放态度"。 沃伦另致函贝森特，要求他详细说明与Kelleher的任何会 ...

U.S. Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren has written a letter to UBS requesting that it provide details on any discussions the Swiss bank may have had with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. news ... ...

US Senator Elizabeth Warren has written to UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher asking for details of any discussions he may have had with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent over a potential relocation of the bank to the US https://t.co/KWKIhjL0Na ...

Core Viewpoint - The UBS Wealth Management Chief Investment Office (CIO) report projects a favorable economic environment supporting global equities, with an expected upside of approximately 15% by the end of 2026 [1] Group 1: Economic Environment and Stock Market Outlook - The report highlights robust economic growth in the U.S. and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies benefiting sectors such as technology, utilities, healthcare, and banking [1] - Stock markets in the U.S., China, Japan, and Europe are anticipated to rise [1] Group 2: Key Drivers of Growth - AI and technology are identified as significant drivers for the anticipated rise in global equities, with strong capital expenditures and rapid adoption expected to provide further support by 2026 [1] - Investors are advised to be cautious of bubble risks while maintaining a diversified stock portfolio, suggesting a maximum allocation of 30% in AI, longevity economy, and structural trends in electricity and resources [1] Group 3: Opportunities in China - The Chinese technology sector is emphasized as one of the most important opportunities globally, supported by ample liquidity, retail investor inflows, and projected corporate earnings growth of up to 37% in 2026 [1] - Investors seeking diversification may consider deploying into Asian markets, particularly India and Singapore, or emerging markets to capitalize on this growth theme [1]

Core Insights - The number of billionaires globally is projected to reach 2,919, an increase of 8.8% [3] - Total billionaire wealth is expected to hit a record $15.8 trillion, reflecting a growth of 13% [4] - The Asia-Pacific region is experiencing significant growth, with billionaire wealth increasing by 11.1% to $4.2 trillion, and China remains the leader with $1.8 trillion [4][5] Group 1: Wealth Creation and New Billionaires - In 2025, 196 self-made billionaires contributed $386.5 billion to global wealth, marking the second-highest annual increase since 2021 [3][5] - The Asia-Pacific region saw a 5.6% rise in billionaires, totaling 1,036, with 79% being self-made, indicating a vibrant entrepreneurial environment [5] - Billionaires in the technology sector experienced a wealth increase of 23.8% to $3 trillion, making it one of the top wealth-generating industries globally [5] Group 2: Wealth Transfer and Inheritance - In 2025, 91 heirs inherited a record $297.8 billion, a 36% increase from 2024, although the overall number of heirs decreased [6] - Approximately 860 cross-generational billionaires manage $4.7 trillion in assets, up from 805 in 2024 [6] - Heirs in South Asia and East Asia are expected to inherit $764.6 billion over the next 15 years, with the Greater China region projected to inherit $407 billion [6][7] Group 3: Changing Family Dynamics and Investment Focus - Over 80% of billionaires hope their children achieve success through their own efforts rather than relying on inherited wealth [8] - 68% of billionaires in the Asia-Pacific region are optimistic about their longevity, which may complicate family wealth planning [8] - 61% of Asia-Pacific billionaires plan to increase investments in hedge funds, developed market stocks, and precious metals [9] Group 4: Future Investment Opportunities - North America remains the preferred investment region for 63% of billionaires, but its dominance has decreased from 80% in 2024 [9] - 34% of billionaires believe the Greater China region offers the greatest investment opportunities, a significant increase from 11% in 2024 [9] - Concerns for the coming year include tariffs (75%), major geopolitical conflicts (72%), and policy uncertainty (69%) [9]

Key Takeaways UBS shares rose after reports that the Swiss government plans to relax parts of its June 2025 capital rule.Easing targets deferred tax assets and software valuations, reducing UBS's added capital need by up to $11B.Requirement to fully capitalize foreign subsidiaries remains, keeping its overall capital load significant.Shares of UBS Group AG (UBS) rose nearly 5.4% following reports that the Swiss government is preparing to soften part of its June 2025 banking regulation package that could hav ...

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