行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 《整车出海、机器人预期强化；同时关注 业绩确定性白马——2026/1/12- 2026/1/18 汽车周报》 2026/01/19 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 27 日 关注业绩支撑的白马反弹，科技与 通胀共振 看好 ——2026/1/19-2026/1/25 汽车周报 本期投资提示： 行业折扣率环比下行，终端让利减少。我们整理懂车帝报价并加权计算得，2025Q4 行业平均折扣率环比-1.33pct 至 12.28%，其中自主品牌折扣率-1.25pct 至 6.91%，合 资品牌折扣率-2.19pct 至 18.03%，豪华品牌折扣率-1.74pct 至 27.38%。 2025Q4 ...

Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce aims to cultivate new growth points in service consumption, focusing on transportation services, housekeeping services, automotive aftermarket services, and more to meet the evolving demands of consumers [4] - In 2025, the number of vehicle transfer registrations is expected to reach 41.11 million, with 38.41 million being automotive transfers, marking a continuous six-year trend of second-hand vehicle transactions surpassing new car registrations [5] - Guangdong province plans to strengthen emerging industries such as new energy, smart connected vehicles, intelligent robotics, and aerospace, aiming to build a more robust modern industrial system [6] - Nanjing is promoting a recycling program for key categories like home appliances and automobiles to support green product consumption [7] - Li Xiang, CEO of Li Auto, predicts that Level 4 autonomous driving will be realized by 2028 at the latest, emphasizing the urgency for companies to adopt AI technologies [9] - NIO has opened its first national dealership in Hungary, marking a significant step in its expansion into the Central European market [10] - XPeng has launched 1,000 mobile charging stations for its X9 model, strategically placed along major highways to assist drivers during peak travel seasons [11] - Lantu has surpassed 100 smart charging stations within a year, providing access to over 1.5 million charging resources nationwide [12] International News - In 2025, European electric vehicle sales are projected to exceed 2.885 million units, a 32.6% increase year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 29.0%, reflecting a significant shift in the automotive market [13] - Toyota has launched its first electric SUV specifically for the Indian market, named Urban Cruiser Ebella, as part of its long-term electrification strategy [14] - Jaguar plans to release its first mass-produced electric vehicle, the Type 00, in the first quarter of 2026, marking a pivotal moment in its transition away from fuel-powered vehicles [15] - Hyundai has no current plans to establish a new manufacturing plant in Canada but is exploring potential collaborations in the hydrogen sector [16] Commercial Vehicles - A new innovation center for power control systems in new energy commercial vehicles has been approved in Jiangsu province, aiming to enhance technological capabilities and international competitiveness [17] - The Zero Mi light truck will be launched in Shandong province, targeting individual entrepreneurs and small logistics companies for urban distribution [18] - The Ministry of Transport has implemented new regulations for online freight platforms, encouraging the use of advanced technologies to optimize transportation efficiency [19] - Hunan province is promoting the application of electric and hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks to support low-carbon transportation initiatives [20]

Industry Information - The National Bureau of Statistics projects that by 2025, the production of new energy vehicles (NEVs) will increase by 25.1%, driving a 41.7% growth in lithium-ion power batteries [8][9] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers aims to develop high-level group standards for vehicles and key components within 1-2 years [9][11] - Shanghai's 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the development of smart connected NEVs through soft and hard collaboration and digital intelligence [11] - By the end of 2025, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure in China is expected to exceed 20 million, marking the largest electric vehicle charging network globally [12][13] - The Ministry of Finance has introduced a loan interest subsidy policy focusing on 14 key industries, including new energy and automotive sectors [14] - By 2025, Guangxi Nanning plans to establish 30,199 public charging piles for NEVs [12] - The Ministry of Commerce anticipates that by the end of 2025, 60% of passenger cars sold will be NEVs [12] Corporate Information - Xpeng Motors reported that 57.2% of X9 Super Range owners are born in the 1990s, with a total of 5,424 units delivered by December 2025, marking a 289.1% year-on-year increase [40] - The Wuling Bingo Pro offers two battery options with a maximum range of 403 kilometers [40] - Ideal Auto's subsidiary has increased its registered capital to 300 million RMB, a 67% increase [11] - NIO has doubled its battery investment, with over 7,309 new batteries added, achieving over 90% progress in battery doubling [40] - The first sample of Hongqi's all-solid-state battery has successfully rolled off the production line [40]

小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏今日发布视频并表示：今天打了一个"飞的"来参加公司年会，乘坐着我们的陆地 航母飞行汽车从空中来看看小鹏的整个园区，感受特别不同。2026年到2028年，希望做到稳进破局，既 要讲究安全稳定高品质，又要与众不同、能够创新。 责任编辑：王翔 小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏今日发布视频并表示：今天打了一个"飞的"来参加公司年会，乘坐着我们的陆地 航母飞行汽车从空中来看看小鹏的整个园区，感受特别不同。2026年到2028年，希望做到稳进破局，既 要讲究安全稳定高品质，又要与众不同、能够创新。 责任编辑：王翔 ...

这些成绩印证了小鹏X9的竞争力，构建起这种竞争力的是优质的用户、技术驱动的产品力以及准确的产品定位。去年 12月，小鹏X9超级增程版贡献了X9系列近80%的交付量。 90后年轻人的第一台车竟是MPV 2025年下半年，大三排新能源家用SUV密集上市，MPV市场持续下滑。其中，去年12⽉下滑14.1%，第四季度则同⽐ 下滑16.1%。 在小鹏X9超级增程的带动下，小鹏X9是少见的实现快速增长的MPV车型，去年12月同比增长289.1%至5424辆，环比 增长也有67.7%，连续两个月将交付量保持较高水平。 把这些数字拆开来看，含金量更足。在2025年12月交付的小鹏X9中，有76%交付给个人用户，而非企业、商业用户， 远超于同行41%的水平，这意味着小鹏X9得到了家庭用户的深度认可。 在香港，小鹏X9打破了丰田埃尔法的"保姆车神话"，成为2025年下半年MPV销量第一名；在印尼市场，小鹏X9成为12 月的纯电MPV销量冠军。 家庭用户真实需求和产品精准洞察的"甜蜜点" 小鹏汽车产品经理、技术品牌负责人于桐表示，小鹏X9超级增程的核心卖点在于星舰造型外观、主动式后轮转向、辅 助驾驶、三排电动三折叠、1602km超 ...

Domestic News - The Ministry of Public Security projects that by 2025, the total number of motor vehicles in China will reach 469 million, with 366 million being cars, and the number of motor vehicle drivers will be 559 million, including 525 million car drivers [2] - In 2025, the number of new registered motor vehicles is expected to be 35.35 million, with 26.19 million being new cars. By the end of 2025, the number of new energy vehicles is projected to reach 43.97 million, accounting for 12.01% of the total number of cars [2] - The Ministry of Public Security reported that in 2025, there will be 41.11 million motor vehicle transfer registrations, with 38.41 million being car transfers, which constitutes 93.44% of the total. Since 2020, the volume of second-hand car transactions has exceeded new car registrations for six consecutive years [3] - Guangdong Province aims to strengthen emerging industries such as new energy, smart connected vehicles, and aerospace, focusing on building a robust modern industrial system by 2026 [4] - Nanjing is promoting a consumption boost initiative, implementing a policy for replacing old appliances and vehicles with new ones, supporting green product consumption [5] International News - Volkswagen Group's CEO stated that the company may cancel plans for an Audi factory in the U.S. unless tariffs are reduced, as the initial motivation for establishing a manufacturing base was influenced by subsidy policies [6][7] - India plans to significantly reduce import tariffs on cars from the EU from 110% to 40%, with potential further reductions to 10% in the future as part of a free trade agreement [8] - Toyota has incurred an additional cost of 5.1 trillion yen (approximately 230 billion RMB) due to rising prices of energy, raw materials, logistics, and labor, warning that further increases in parts prices may lead to higher vehicle prices [9] - Eaton is exploring strategic options for its automotive business, including potential sale or spin-off, with an estimated valuation of up to 5 billion USD [10] Corporate News - Porsche China plans to reduce its dealer network by 30% by 2026, with no current plans for local production, focusing instead on cost-saving measures and investment in market and future R&D [11] - XPeng Motors announced the launch of 1,000 X9 super-range mobile charging stations, aimed at providing charging support during the Spring Festival travel season [12] - The autonomous shuttle Robobus by WeRide has commenced commercial operations in Leuven, Belgium, marking the first deployment of autonomous vehicles in a complex urban traffic environment in Europe [14] - Youjia Innovation has secured a significant smart driving project with a well-known automaker, with a total order value exceeding 1.3 billion RMB, expected to start mass production by mid-2026 [15] - The flagship model Huajing S, developed through a strategic partnership between SAIC-GM-Wuling and Huawei, has officially rolled off the production line, entering user experience testing and preparation for mass production [16]

与此同时，国际金融市场避险情绪升温。分析指出，受政治与财政风险上升影响，投资者纷纷转向避险 资产。1 月 26 日，黄金价格一度大幅上扬 2.5%，创下每盎司 5100 美元以上的历史新高；现货白银日 内涨幅更是高达 14%，最高触及 117 美元/盎司。然而，国际金银价格在冲高后大幅跳水，现货白银尾 盘转跌，报约 102.8 美元/盎司；现货黄金向下跌破 5000 美元/盎司，最终收涨 0.26%。1 月 27 日亚洲早 盘，国际黄金高开后继续拉升，白银震荡反弹，盘中涨幅逾 2%。 在贸易领域，一则消息引发广泛关注。据央视新闻 1 月 27 日报道，美国总统特朗普宣称对韩国产汽车 等产品加征关税。韩国总统府青瓦台表示，尚未收到美方正式通报及相关说明。韩国政府 27 日上午紧 急召开相关政府部门会议研究应对策略，正在加拿大访问的韩国产业通商部部长金正官也将尽快前往美 国进行磋商。当地时间 1 月 26 日，特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"发文称，因韩国国会未批准并落实 此前与美国达成的贸易协议，美方决定将对韩国汽车、木材、制药产品以及其他对等关税项目的税率从 15%上调至 25%。 当地时间 1 月 26 日， ...

隔夜美股盘中拉升。黄金、白银今日高开后拉升。 1月27日亚洲早盘，国际黄金高开后拉升，白银震荡反弹，盘中涨逾2%。 美股收涨 黄金白银巨震 美股三大指数集体收涨，纳指涨0.43%，道指涨0.64%，标普500指数涨0.5%。 个股方面，苹果、甲骨文、Meta涨超2%，英特尔跌超5%，AMD、特斯拉跌超3%。市场关注苹果、甲骨文、Meta等将于本周公布财报。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.63%，百度跌超3%，小鹏汽车跌超2%，阿里巴巴跌超1%，理想汽车涨超1%。 分析称，受政治与财政风险上升推动，投资者转向避险资产。1月26日黄金价格一度大涨2.5%，创下每盎司5100美元以上的历史新高。现货白银日内涨幅 一度高达14%，最高触及117美元/盎司。不过国际金银在冲高后大幅跳水，现货白银尾盘转跌，报约102.8美元/盎司。现货黄金向下跌破5000美元/盎司， 收涨0.26%。 特朗普称提高对韩国多种商品关税税率至25% 据央视新闻报道，1月27日，针对美国总统特朗普宣称对韩国产汽车等产品加征关税，韩国总统府青瓦台表示尚未收到美方正式通报以及相关说明。 韩国政府27日上午将召开相关政府部门会议研 ...

Core Viewpoint - All three major U.S.-listed Chinese EV makers, NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng, are currently trading below their consensus price targets, indicating potential investment opportunities at present levels [1]. Upside Analysis - NIO's current market price is $4.61 with a consensus target of $7.62, representing an upside of +65.29% [2]. - Li Auto's current market price is $16.94 with a consensus target of $25.24, indicating an upside of +49.00% [2]. - XPeng's current market price is $18.79 with a consensus target of $21.78, showing a more modest upside of +15.91% [2]. NIO's Position - NIO leads in upside potential due to its low valuation, trading near $4.60, just above a low target of $4 set by Barclays [3]. - The market has factored in significant pessimism regarding NIO's high cash burn and the capital-intensive nature of its battery-swapping network [3]. - Analysts are optimistic about NIO's infrastructure maturity in 2026, betting on its transition to a mass-market player through lower-priced sub-brands [4]. Li Auto and XPeng - Li Auto, with a +49.4% upside, is considered a safer investment due to its consistent profitability, although its upside is lower than NIO's [5]. - XPeng is viewed as fairly valued with only a 16% upside to its consensus target, reflecting investor confidence in its AI and autonomous driving capabilities [6]. - For high-risk, high-reward investors, NIO presents a mathematical edge, while Li Auto offers a balanced option with strong fundamentals and nearly 50% potential upside [6].

隔夜美股盘中拉升。黄金、白银今日高开后拉升。 美股收涨 黄金白银巨震 美股三大指数集体收涨，纳指涨0.43%，道指涨0.64%，标普500指数涨0.5%。 个股方面，苹果、甲骨文、Meta涨超2%，英特尔跌超5%，AMD、特斯拉跌超3%。市场关注苹果、甲 骨文、Meta等将于本周公布财报。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.63%，百度跌超3%，小鹏汽车跌超2%，阿里巴巴 跌超1%，理想汽车涨超1%。 分析称，受政治与财政风险上升推动，投资者转向避险资产。1月26日黄金价格一度大涨2.5%，创下每 盎司5100美元以上的历史新高。现货白银日内涨幅一度高达14%，最高触及117美元/盎司。不过国际金 银在冲高后大幅跳水，现货白银尾盘转跌，报约102.8美元/盎司。现货黄金向下跌破5000美元/盎司，收 涨0.26%。 1月27日亚洲早盘，国际黄金高开后拉升，白银震荡反弹，盘中涨逾2%。 特朗普称提高对韩国多种商品关税税率至25% 据央视新闻报道，1月27日，针对美国总统特朗普宣称对韩国产汽车等产品加征关税，韩国总统府青瓦 台表示尚未收到美方正式通报以及相关说明。 韩国政府27日上午将召开相关政府部 ...